I closed out of my ATPG position, locking in a small gain. I didn’t like the pin action. With some of the proceeds, I added to my AG and CLR positions.
For the day, I lost about 3%, thanks to that lunatic in the middle east (pick one). However, I am optimistic over the pending and inevitable impalement of my bearish colleagues.
You don’t start hedges when the nasdaq is down 80 handles. That’s a low probability bet. I much rather take my chances embedded in stocks that stand to benefit from the ongoing crisis: oil, gold, silver.
That’s my position (90% long, 10% cash) and I’m willing to see it through until I get bored.
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If the Fly isn’t selling, neither am I.
Trading in the stock market these days is straight gambling. It is scary. I have basically moved into cash for a while.
zerohedge unmasked
http://i.imgur.com/FEPZp.jpg
Forgive my ignorance, but what are “/cI and /si” quotes?
Thanks.
Request for ignorance forgiven DENIED.
*bites Fly in leg, infecting him with Super Rabies*
oil and silver futures
Ah. Thanks.
My Fly, how did the first turd on your facemask clean up?
That’s not me.
(Pick one) Lol.
Don’t fucking address me.
BANNED
The Libya crisis is about to end abruptly. It will either be a massive bloodbath (which I doubt) or Ghadaffi will take his meds and step down. His hour long rant covered in its entirety on Al Jazeera will be considered his curtain call.
Silver and gold will fall apart, and the rest of the market will recover.
Consider yourselves warned.
LOL
I think you are wrong about silver and gold falling apart.
I think that is wishful thinking.
Please think again.
OEW Market Recap:
“The short term OEW charts suggest that the SPX 1344 high ended Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave five. Should the high of Minor wave one at SPX 1303 be penetrated by this pullback, then this count would be questionable and Major wave 1 may have completed. Should the SPX 1303 level hold during this pullback a Minor wave 5 rally should follow to new uptrend highs. With support at the 1313 and 1303 pivots it appears to be “make or break” time for this Major wave 1 seven month uptrend. ”
In any event, either MW1 has topped or after this quick pullback (mw4) it will top out shortly (mw5) … very shortly and then a long Major Wave2 correction will ensue … Canary in the coal mine is 1303 … If it is broken then MW2 has most likely begun and I will raise cash quickly and add to my hedges.
That can be interpreted so many different ways they can be right or wrong no matter what.
I love those EWI tea leaf readings!
Let’s see, we could either be in Wave 1 or Wave 5. What happened to 2-4?
Actually, don’t answer that.
What, you don’t understand the bottom line … a break of 1303 means a 7-10% correction … It’s as simple as that.
Ben to the rescue how?
By creating more inflation via printing which then takes down more governments?
Ben’s in a box and looking more fucked by the day. Like your oil and metals play. Don’t see how your can like stocks tho as we near the end of QE2.
>>You don’t start hedges when the nasdaq is down 80 handles. <<
Is it okay to do it when, over 24 months, it's UP 1500 handles?
yes
I sold out of a number of positions, taking profits in MTW, MU and ISRG.
This market is scared. How do you have oil up $7 and a lot of energy stocks down? The March contract expired today and we’re now looking at over $95 on the April contract. We’ll go through the excess inventory at Cushing is a short time as the M.E. blow up even more.
HPQ earnings were good, but guided lower for Q2, so tech spending is looking like it is slowing from the consumer side.
My cash levels are now 35%. This is definitely a stock pickers market now with all the uncertainty out there. If you want to play the indexes—– good luck.
VXX will have its revenge.
I raised some cash today. If we do not recover certain level in the next 3-5 trading sessions, I plan to raising more cash.
I think the market sell off was by design to screw with the Mach Madness picks. All that mess over $1000, geez.
hahaha. everyone pick is getting creamed right now. the winner might be the lowest beta play.
Someone had to have picked BDCO.
Listen people, this is my time to shine! My pick was up 12% today!!!
I won’t win the tourney, but i should win something for starting off the first day so strong.
Here you go:
{PRIZE}
Just copy that, paste it into notepad, and print it. Enjoy!
Under $5…
You are all wrong!
I was murdered today, plain and simple. Here are my positions and the damage wrought:
1) TUR – -4.5%
2) VNM – -6.7%
3) FXI – -3.6%
4) EWZ – -3%
Net porfolio damage on the day of -3.5%, thanks to a little TZA position i was holding (and closed today, still at a loss).
That is a massacre…Honestly what an asswhoopin. Unless there is a vicious snapback they will all get closed Monday morning.
Don’t worry about it. I had about 30% of my portfolio in ATPG right before the BP disaster. There were days I would have loved to only be down -3.5%.
did you recover yet?
Yes. Since after the huge drop the position was no longer 30% of my portfolio so I did some averaging down. Even after the drop the last two sessions I am still in the green (not a lot, but green is green).
You need to stop trading and hire some one to manage your money for the sake of your family.
Maybe…maybe. I am aware that the emerging markets as a whole look horrible from a trading perspective right now. But, I am running a longer-term trend following system and, for better or worse, these are the signals i have to follow at the moment.
Thanks for thinking of my family though…that’s just the kind of fear i need on a massive down day like this to have me sell at the bottom 😉
I hope you realize that “longer-term trend following systems” can have HUGE drawdowns.
Good luck with that, friend.
yes i know that…so does buy and hold. Buy and hold is worse, actually. I work too much to actively trade…been there, tried that. So this is what I’m left with.
March madness final bracket: The Pomo Clams vs the Middle East Dominos
Trading is always much more fun when there are impending disasters facing the world.
-DT
Can’t we just stop Ben B. and his QEing? He messes up so much of my analysis.
How aren’t you a blogger here yet? C’mon Fly…..
I think we all need to relax just a bit… The V.King way…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzHTmvDH7mY&feature=related
I know he is just joking. But I did love the vid, except I would not be using a five pounder ( it looked like) for a tricept kick back..what she was using was. just a waste of time imho. Arnold was cute in his early days.
That almost looked like the opening of a porn flick.
Sick biceps.
nice find re: BDCO
AG is gonna buy me a new car
JANUARY 25TH … the day the fly made my year. With your silver oversold call I purchased 5000 shares of AG at $10.55…. I sold out today at $15…. maybe I sold too early but I like money. Thanks again for starting my year off with alot of chips.
HSY, CVX, CLR, maybe VFC
Economist Michael Hudson has written extensively on where the bailout money is going, why it is going there, and what the impact is. Based on his findings, it would seem that it does not matter if QE3 ever arrives. QE2 was enough to create the necessary credit they were after. Who cares that only $200 billion is left in QE2. The damage has been done and it’s here to stay and drive up commodities for a long time.
Michael Hudson works directly with various governments and the IMF. If anyone would know, it is Michael Hudson.
Read his in-depth article on this topic at –
http://michael-hudson.com/2010/11/dollar-war-in-detail/
“The Financial Times reports that all of the last $2 trillion the Fed created has gone to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and to Third World raw materials exporters…”
“This trillion dollar injection of dollar liquidity is a base for being multiplied ninety-nine times by putting down just 1%. So finance ministers are beginning to ask themselves what is to stop the United States from creating enough credit to buy up all the real estate, all the companies and every bit of stock in the world – and make the currency gain to pay off the loans in devalued dollars. Without isolating the dollar by imposing currency controls, U.S. banks have an infinite capacity to create credit and buy up foreign resources.”
The US is considered a safe haven and with all the bullshit in the world people are sticking their money back in the US. This is messing with Bernanke’s plan to inflate away all the debt.
Don’t worry, that will change at some point. And most likely very rapidly, when it flips.
Misc musing: If no Fannie / Freddie type entities exist in the future, real estate prices will seek a lower level than the last 30-50 yrs. Essentially many RE values are related to monthly payments. Higher borrowing costs overall result in lower values. Of course the price (in dollars) may be higher, the value lower, relatively
re prices have changed. i can get a median home right now for the same price i paid back in 1986.also, how does higher interest rates on a 30 yr, or anything else have to do with the value of a home.unrelated.
How do people qualify for a mortgage: monthly income – princ, intr, mortgage & tax
Higher P&I = lower buying power
lower buying power marketwide = lower prices overall
They say the 3 most important words in Real Estate are location, location, location. Really the 3 most important words are financing, financing, financing.
Location is always critical, but financing can be important
QE3 is coming. So long as unemployment rate is +9%. It’s the only tool available at no real cost to the politicians. Short term political expedience trumps long term economic concerns.
>>It’s the only tool available at no real cost to the politicians.<<
Higher gas and foods prices are the "cost to politicians." QE3 will never happen.
Gonna get some AXL here.
My PBR is way up when other oil stocks are down. The only reason I picked that stock was because it has good fundamentals.