iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,784 Blog Posts

It’s About to Hit the Fan

Let’s get a few things out of the way first, discussing the obvious. The Middle East is in flux because they are living in the 1500’s, both in their forms of government and way of life. If you would like to debate the difference between human rights in western countries compared to “over there,” fuck off: I have no time for that shit.

This is what is important to know: Asian markets are reeling tonight, as transformation takes hold of the oil rich state of Libya. The greater fear, of course, is contagion.  Revolution is contagious. I would not be surprised to see demonstrations against the House of Saud. Let’s face it: monarchies are a little dated and retarded. I much prefer the song and dance that our two party system performs for us every 4 years, than the crap being “blessed by God” over there.

If you were a wealthy tycoon in Egypt, Libya or any of the countries in danger, where would you put your money? Would you leave it in your domestic currency?

PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF.

Hence, the price of gold and silver are soaring, as it is the de facto currency standard of the globe, especially since the dollar has blatantly been depreciated in order to placate the whimsical machinations of Ben Bernanke.

Oil is ripping to the upside, due to the fact that 36% of global oil supplies comes from the Middle East. Should the fuckers from Saud come under assault, oil will shoot, mind you, straight to $200.

All of this is horrendous for “global growth.” In the short term, turmoil is bad for markets. However, investors will find respite in the right sectors, namely precious metals and oil.

I am not sure if I will make money tomorrow, since I have no idea how the oil sector will perform. I am pretty sure my gold/silver stocks will gallop higher. And, conversely, I am certain some of my “non-commodity” stocks will get bludgeoned.

If you notice a more serious tone to this missive it is because I have consumed over 10 cups of coffee today and feel as if I could punch a hole through a large ball of scrap metal.

It’s hard for me to give cogent advice for the week ahead, without seeing how stocks trade. Judging by the homofied action in Europe and Asia, I’d say we’re in for a helluva punch to the scrotum.

Top picks: AG, NGD, EXK, ATPG, APC, BZ

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81 comments

  1. The Fly

    A BLUE BLAZER EVENT IS UPON US

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  2. FIG

    Just wait till the unrest hits south america. That will be the end of the bull trade in pm’s.

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  3. KilltheJuice

    First

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  4. kedzilla

    I will club extra seals tomorrow in Canada so I will have the means to barter in America for green pieces of worthless paper

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  5. Woodshedder

    My study suggests it could be a while before we see Friday’s levels…
    http://ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/2011/02/21/gap-study-market-gaps-down-1-or-more/

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  6. GonzoT

    the Keurig working overtime?

    Whats this shit that JPM is naked short the silver market, I have heard they have more shorts than physical silver exists in the world…. what have you heard about this dear Fly or is this just internet bullshit…

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    • go2mars

      You should be asking JG. But it seems legit after perusing GATA data.

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      • Jakegint

        They are definitely tits deep in the fuggery, but it’s not yet clear to what extent (as far as total shorts).

        _____

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  7. flyaway18

    Buy the dip, if we dip big, is all I have to say,
    and stay long the precious metals and oil.

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    • Rick Powers

      Lows are in. I just can’t short this market until we see a “major” event. I expect 60 down or so and up 70 tomorrow. Business as usual.

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      • heaterman

        Often times the trigger event is not big in the traditional sense of the word but rather that final grain of sand that causes the whole pile to avalanche. We probably won’t see it coming.

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  8. The Fly

    BHP +2.2% in ASX trading.

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  9. Bullish

    What’s the chances all this upheaval of monarchies actually creates a democratic society that lives off the oil money. All of a sudden it’s not hoarded by a single entity. Just think of all the iPads we could sell them.

    That of course is a utopian dream that is unlikely. Plan B we could just send our troops in and free the oil. Regardless that can’t be good for stocks. Can we postpone the march madness contest due to poor weather conditions?

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    • checklist

      there are seeds for significant improvements in the world in and among all of the current turmoil… down with the unions is fantastic for future prosperity in the US. As you note, your dream is perhaps a long shot, but… what if?

      what if, finally, we get smaller government out of all of this? short term trouble but long term good…

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    • go2mars

      Very slim. If they get the internet to the common camel rider however…

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  10. norcal

    UCO should rip tits

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  11. checklist

    indeed. Finally a bit of “oh, sweet” feeling for those of us who have been stockpiling cash and/or buying some hedges. I am going to get it straight in the rear end on my TCK position, which had the hedges expire Friday and I was tied up all day and didn’t buy more.

    But I did buy a decent chunk of puts on various indices, which will cushion le blow…

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    • checklist

      I am cleverly long only ATPG int he oil space. Good call to all on IBC on oil. 🙂

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  12. Eine Kleine Braveflapsmusik
    Eine Kleine Braveflapsmusik

    Looking forward to the ERX move tomorrow.

    In the meantime, could you please say BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAP instead of PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF?

    Just one time only.

    Indeud.

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  13. alphadawgg

    Looking forward to the opening tomorrow.

    Count it pure joy when you go through various tests and market turmoil. It makes you a better trader and investor in the end, as long as you can stick with it, and learn something from it, assuming you don’t blow up your trading account 🙂

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  14. Gregor

    I look for premium expansion in the Canadian oil and gas stocks to finally emerge after years. It will unfold in a chunky manner and will not be obvious. Oil stained dirt is like that. Meanwhile, don’t be surprised if several vicious attacks against silver and gold take place before some clarity arrives around the 28th. Also, I expect the FED to get 9th Inning Fischer out there to say “we’re in the…9th inning of this reflationary QE stuff.” Even if they don’t mean. No, especially because they don’t mean.

    No, don’t be surprised (1969): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NNpmjez0LU&feature=related

    G

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    • alphadawgg

      I like your thinking. Canuck O&G don’t get no respect. No respect at’all.

      As for gold and silver, I’m about to feed more to the account. This M.E. deal is just getting started. It will come down to the safety and security of Israel in the end.

      I could very well be wrong, but I doubt we will see oil below $75 for a long, long time, if EVER again. Wars and rumors of wars just create more demand for the stuff.

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    • Curly

      Awesome tune!

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  15. go2mars

    http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/babongun.htm

    Fly, an orbital cannon like this one?

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  16. Trading Nymph

    Jasmine Revolution!

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  17. jande9

    The dictatorships are the only thing holding the region together. If they go it will be like Yugoslavia, with every flavour of Muslim trying to kill each other.

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  18. Belly of the Beast
    Belly of the Beast

    Are we supposed to believe Steve Jobs drives a 97 Honda Civic ?

    07 maaaaayyyyyybe, but definitely not a 97 !

    http://blogs.forbes.com/briancaulfield/2011/02/21/why-apple-chief-steve-jobs-might-drive-a-1997-honda-civic/?partner=yahootix

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  19. rubberBullet

    double tits or double dips?

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  20. Andrew Reller

    Buy Russia banking, retail and property. It’s all about oil prices.

    Leveraged beneficiaries of higher oil prices which are taxed harshly by the government in the case of the oil companies but flow into the banking system.

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  21. rookie

    come on fly do u really think in our planned centrally planned economy will let the market sell off any more than it already has.. no f*ing way. i am long 15K shares of uco near 10.80 from last week and plan on taking half off this morning. i think silver is a bit too extended here for a new position ?

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  22. Juiceyfruit

    We should all hail The Bernank – for exporting inflation to the poor of the world so they could not afford to eat, and would naturally take to the streets to demand basic human rights and democracy.

    The Bernank is genius. He did what the CIA couldn’t without sending a single troop in harms way.

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  23. j

    This is how I see it….

    The real key is Saudi. The mini Saudi in a test tube is Bahrain.

    The average Bahraini is sunni and pretty happy with their owners. The people doing all the protesting are Shia. If it comes to a boil the Bahrainis will put all the shia in a boat and piss them all off back to Iran. Of this i have no doubt.

    The Saudis will do likewise as the average Saudi is well taken care of by the regime and the likely protesters are the Shia guest workers there and they (the Saudis) hate shia’s more than they hate us.

    As for Libya. It’s a bit of worry because Al Queda has a foothold in the Saharan desert and they will turn the freaking oil off without any second thoughts. However I very much doubt AQ will take over Libya. What we’re seeing there is just tribal bullshit as to how they split the oil loot.

    As for Iran. Those turban wearing man/boy fuckers are in serious trouble and if it’s not today or tomorrow they’re gonskys. This is a good thing for us.

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    • drummerboy

      your absolutely right,not a thing will happen to the saudi’s. when a saudi child is born, the king puts 50k into an account till the child is of age.just imagine, a germany,or france.habitated by only a german,or a frenchmen.all others are the minority, and dont get a thing.and there arent many. what a country……..

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      • Jakegint

        If AQ tries fuckery in the desert, they will only make the Warthog drivers happy. Much easier to pick off fly specks in the wide open topiary-free and flat desert than it is in the mountains of Afghani.

        Ask any pilot vet of the First Gulf War if you want a confirm. It was such a turkey shoot that many of them felt kind of badly about it.

        But not that badly.

        ___________

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  24. riggedgame

    The Middle East is in flux because the USA / CIA is implementing the next stage
    of the West’s “War on Islam”. This involves fomenting anti-government demonstrations
    in nearly all Muslim countries, using Google and Facebook to sway the minds of
    the young people – who are most of the population in those countries.

    Now you know why we have been placing troops and contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan
    for ten years, and not drawing them down.

    And you also know why Government-sponsored entities such as Google and Facebook
    are doing so well on the stock market.

    How this ends up is a guess, but we have an overpowering military presence there.
    Buy stock in Predator Drone and military contracting companies.

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    • j

      You’re a comedian?

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      • riggedgame

        I am DEADLY serious. Wake up from your dream world and put two and two together.

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        • Mr. Slow

          The CIA is so incompetent that if they tried to destabilize a country, the country would instead flourish. Our mission is to make money regardless so I am buying JO and investing in scrap metal formed scrotum protectors.

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        • A Monkey With a Funny Ehrab Hat
          A Monkey With a Funny Ehrab Hat

          Your’e crazy, the USA aint smart enough to destabilize a country. Now George Soros, yeah he could destabilize a country.

          Face it these stone age dumb fucks in all these eh-rab countries were overdue for a taste of freedom, now they got, now they can FUCK that up too.

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    • Flying Space Cannon Circus Clown
      Flying Space Cannon Circus Clown

      Are you talking about the same CIA that was caught off guard when Sadam went into Kuwait?

      They’re (CIA) is in charge of Google and Facebook now?

      “we have an overpowering military presence there”
      and if we don’t, we can use our laser beams from space. You know, the ones we have on satellites circling the earth.

      if there is a fight, they will be fighting us with the best shit oil could buy, that we just sold them.

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      • riggedgame

        Look at the BIG PICTURE, Dumbo. We went into Iraq as a programmed step
        in our War on Islam. The CIA provided EXACTLY what was needed to brainwash
        the American public and our Neocon media (read Washington Post, NYT, and CNN).

        Far from “incompetence”, it was total CIA COMPETENCE. Case in point being
        creation of brainwashed fools like you.

        BTW: Why do you think Bush 43 was APPOINTED to the Presidency, and Obama
        anointed as his successor (via a phony “nomination”) and SELECTED opponents
        (incompetent stooge and stoogess McCain- Palin)?

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        • Jakegint

          Is your Reynolds Wrap Chapeau in the traditional tri-corn, a la the late General Bonaparte?

          _________

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        • Frog Pushing the Envelope
          Frog Pushing the Envelope

          Wow, Riggedgame, you must be the mirror image of Glenn Beck– believing in the opposite conspiracy theory of his.

          Conspiracy theories are interesting– requiring all kinds of coordinated moves from organizations and people who are actually not coordinated at all and have nothing much to do with one another.

          I can see the appeal. Such theories make our complex world simple– if U believe them, that is. Problem is, the world is not really as simple or predictable as we might like it to be. May as well just admit that and face it.

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    • go2mars

      Go watch some interviews with the google guys from 10 years ago. They may fit in with someone’s plans, but their strong underlying premise has always non-censorship of information and thought. And of course to make money while allowing people the freedom of information. As to facebook, I think it was just a kid with a good idea to capitalize on.

      These may or may not be useful tools toward the goals of spreading democracy, but they were not exclusively created for that purpose.

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      • riggedgame

        True, but the CIA recognized them for their popularity with the young,
        and also recognized the demographics of the Muslim world.

        With Khaddafi about ready to kick the bucket, the operation timing was exquisite.

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      • alphadawgg

        This couch warrior, CIA stuff is amusing. Very theoretical and fictional.

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  25. Going Green

    Looks like another up day. I think only talks of nukes being dropped can keep this from 14000. Long everything.

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  26. ruggyup

    Or, Sidi Bouzid Revolt. Sounds more “in” on the streets. Aren’t we consumed with what is Heard on the Street?

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  27. checklist

    nothing like waking up knowing you’re about to be “clown raped”, as you are long only 1 oil stock (ATPG) and no PM things of any kind, but long financials. lol

    my saving grace is a fairly nice pile of puts on IWM, SPY, and XLF. I shall endeavor to sell these at precisely the wrong time so that my “clown raping” can be completed as was decreed by the gods.

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  28. Ricky Bobby

    Slingshot, engage.

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  29. Rand

    Russian will take possession of tens of millions of dollars of our equipment soon.
    Our orders are coming faster now, more Russian companies coming online, and one or two American companies.
    Weatherford, god bless them, are ordering equipment as well.
    Fuck unions, fuck Obama!!
    Drill, baby, DRILL!!

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  30. Dr Genius

    I am pissing at this bs sea of red from the Arab slave world. I am going to buy some longs and take a nap.

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  31. Mustard Seeds

    Clam Juice, please.

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  32. WTF

    I’ve noticed a strong negative correlation between S&P 1500 and the Arab world 1500.

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  33. WTF

    After today I think I’m entitled for a t-shirt with slogan “I sponsored Tunisian, Egyptian, and Libyan revolutions.”

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  34. Mark

    APRI ripping tits

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  35. Rand

    Houston Texas to be precise.
    Stewart and Stevenson drilling equipment services.

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  36. Jakegint

    Where is Le Monsieur today? I sense another medical howler in the hustings….

    +++++++++++++++

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  37. Frog Pushing the Envelope
    Frog Pushing the Envelope

    Here he is… “Developing”

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