You really need to pay attention to what the bond market is telling us right now. I am going to share with you a chart of my Risk Appetite Index, which is exclusive to The PPT. Essentially, it measures risk through price action of munis, sovereign and corporate debt. Basically, the fucking price action just wiped out 3 months of gains in one week. If you do not think that is cause for alarm, you have your head tightly stuck in your ass. Hence the term “asshat” applies to you.
If money’s coming out of bonds where is it going in your opinion?
If you are suggesting stocks, you are missing the point. The stock market is a circus full of idiots, like you.
Not suggesting anything actually, just asking a very straightforward question. Is it going to PM’s, cash? Where? “I don’t know” is an acceptable answer.
Go where all the bailout money is being spent — on overseas assets, and commodities. That’s where the big speculators are going, based on the COT report today. This will likely drive up gold and silver some more.
Maybe into a safe harbor, where you go during fear, when risk is off- the USD. During the shit storm of 08 money flew into the USD from around the world and the dollar surged during the worst of it, before tanking. Even if the bond bubble has not burst as it appears, the perception is that it may have. Can’t you feel the fear rising. Game on.
Technically we hit a hard support on the weekly and monthly USD chart. Nothing goes straight down, the dollar may get a lift here. MSM to focus a lens on the latest catalysts: PIIGS and Muni collapse.
Thanks.
Sure. Good luck
lol.hey you know that “SCARED” money always runs to bond/treasuries……..well.where are all the “SCARDY-CATS” gonna run to now…under a rock,with all the “supposed” sideline coin…….shittin their pantalones now,arent they…….this really might turn out to be more fun than i thought
This scared money is hopping on the FAZ train.
What might reverse this?
QE3?
Qualitative Forcing
More like Quantitative Fisting lmao.
fid
GS front-running the POMO action?
No problems mate. we’ll just print more mon …. Oh, you say we don’t have the option of printing more money.
Well then, we’ll just call on Congress to help with the shortfa ….
What do you mean the Congress won’t give us any more bailout money ? What is this country coming to demanding prudence ?
The whole concept of POMO is new and unproven. Who knows what the end result is?
Dow to 32?
You leave Prudence alone, damnit.
______
I read somewhere that in the last 10 days or so that munis have given up the last year and a half of profits.
I also hear Harrisburg,PA is on the brink of BK along with possibly some other entities.
I smell something funny in the air and it isn’t the meatballs I just made for dinner.
tc,harrisburg already declared bankruptcy.they got a loan from the state of over 4 mill just to pay fire,police and teachers.it’s gonna be/get real ugly soon.i fell it in my gut
No secrets gentlemen. We’re fucking broke!
Unfunded liabilities on the books of the state and federal govts will come to roost in the next 2 years. Stay tuned as it will get VERY interesting when the call for MUCH higher taxes coupled with MUCH lower services is announced.
We’re about to learn how well the unions and underfunded pensions respond to the debacle that is staring us in the face. Welcome to the latter part of 2011 and the beginning of 2012..
I guess I am an asshat then.
With the munis, bankrupt municipal governments can’t print money like the bankrupt federal government does, so why should investors take the risk of default?
As for Treasuries, TLT is still up something like 6% for the year now, by my rough estimate from the chart rather than calculating it. So everyone depending on low interest rates is still that much better off than they were at the beginning of the year. Of course the bonds fell far and fast– but they were at ridiculously high levels for no good reason. If the Fed is buying Treasuries now, they are sure getting a better price than they would have gotten in mid-August.
We’ll just kick the can on down the road. If the grandkids can’t cover it, pass it on to the great-grandkids. National debt is just a number. No sense asking people to get to work and pay for shit. Just keep printing up the money and buying Treasuries so the gov’t can keep on spending for all the good necessary programs that make so much sense.
Amen Dr. Ron Paul.
One other thing that pops into my mind is that maybe the government wants an excuse to backstop munis– make some law about it or something– and the muni crash will give them that excuse.
The credit problems in Ireland,
how come investors are not “fleeing”
to the safe havens of gold and TLT like they did last time
PIIGS evolved into a crisis?
Harrisburg got fucked by an incinerator, literally.
we’ll thats a little weird,theres big money in garbage.to incinerate or otherwise.
Video of “financial advisors” telling investors to get out of bonds and buy gold and stocks…The last guy says “don’t pay attention to your portfolio”. Yeah, especially if he’s skimming 2% off the top..
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/mistakes-investors-are-making-now-2010-11-15/49483371-66DF-4BF2-8216-E41F33C0D6E9
Fly have you figured out yet what exactly is afoot here? I am now befuddled but there is clearly something not good going on beneath the surface.
fly, i know this is a bit of a stretch. how soon before the unrest begins,if they cant pay for just regular city services,ie: cops,fire teachers etc. these folks might not want to show up for work,hence the Guard walking the beats………………they wont come out in the open to declare bankruptcy across the board,but could spark some panic no.
Well even if their pension disappears they’ll still (or especially) need their regular paycheck. Let’s be practical here.
i see….someone from Moody’s said extending the bush tax cuts would be bad for the US credit rating….you know the market doesn’t like to hear that — damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
What does Moody’s know about credit ratings?
What does China know about credit ratings?
Credit ratings are the programmable paradigm that you have bought into, which is an intentional distraction, which is a prefabricated transitional catalyst for keeping you passive while the women in your teepee are creamed in the ass by degenerate mutant apes.
What are you, some sort of degnerate ape geneticist?
(There’s a zero percent probability of genetic transfer via that methodology, fyi)
______
The tax cuts will allow to increase spending by the private sector. Probably the asshats at Moody’s don’t know that spending=income=GDP growth. Oh, their concern is that the % on servicing the “debt” will be so huge that US will go bankrupt unable to service it. Hmm, let me think… Ahh, yeah, there must be someone else who can issue USD, besides the sovereign US government (as represented by the Treasury and Fed). However, the last time I checked, that guy who tried to print dollars got imprisoned.
So what’s then the fucking problem with US credit rating!?? HOW CAN IT BE ANYTHING LESS THAN AAA???
It can be functionally less than AAA when people start refusing to by because they know they’re getting shit in return.
*buy
Well, that’s the best shit money can buy.
Here’s what’s going on.
We’re on the deck. The band is playing. They are serving champagne for free. The waiters are tidying up. Most people think they are having a good time. Planning the good time ahead.
Far below, water is gushing in. Men are being locked off in flooding compartments. The engines and power will shut down at some point, but no one knows when. The US is not only the largest creditor in the world; we are the largest creditor of all time.
I predicted two years ago that what would kill the US would be a failure of its state-level bond markets, which would collapse like dominoes. This in turn will set the stage for all US-related bonds to be reduced from AAA status. Then the US dollar will collapse/hyperinflate. Then the IMF and World Bank will come to the rescue (planned well in advance). The debt could be written off but the plan is to create lifelong debt-burdened serfs who will do as they are told (good batteries for the central banker power plant).
Then society will undergo some level of civil unrest and at the same time be subjected to a political re-education according to the new rules of the “green” pre-communist central banker-run world society. Fewer cars, less consumption, more hunger, green education, green jobs… lots of spew about human beings being evil for causing so much pain and suffering in the world/environment — when all along it was the bankers that caused this.
Anyone who says so though will be imprisoned or called a nutjob and put in a padded cell for their re-education. Stasi brown shirts will thrive in the US because Americans **LOVE** to see their peers suffer and fail. Their decades-long central banker-funded education programs have taught them that the majority consensus rules, and that truth is dead. The media, of course, controls the consensus opinion, as do the people who own the media.
After that, welcome to New World Hell. Lucifer will be so very happy.
Make that, the largest debtor nation in the world
If QE works the stock market will be happy.
Agreed. Added to shorts today via some new names: JNk, PGF, PFF. Went long SRS for good measure. The way I look at it, a bond selloff sucks shit for anything with a yield.
Money is going to end up in under the mattress.
Might have to increase my short postions.
Maybe as filler once it gets cheaper than mattress stuffing.
If money, why paper money? Why not gold or silver? Granted they don’t make very comfortable mattress stuffing …
So do you think this is the start of the end of U.S. municipalities?
I mean, the real domestic fallout never hit during the last round of PIIGS histeria. Is this it, or just people very specifically fleeing fixed income securities and the dollar?
I’ll be honest; I’m stumped as what to do. I’m really just going to continue to cut debt and stay small, but I’m completely uninterested in holding dollars. I’d be more ready to take on foreign currency reserves. PM’s are looking shaky but I don’t want to flee.
If you are worried where to put cash, I’ll give some ideas where to put it.
1) 1969 Camaro SS/RS matching numbers
2) 1970 Cuda, 440 six pack
3) 1935 Chris Craft barrel back
4) 1965 Corvette convertible 396
carry on, and enjoy.
$6.00/gallon gas might fuck with that theory. Just sayin’
You’ve been watching Mecum too much … me too!
Add classic Lionel trains in the box as well and maybe Hummels … they’ve been down too long.
(laughter)
Now THAT is a portfolio I can get behind. Forge ahead Good Sir, and forget not, too add to add something else from possibly Eagle Arms, .223 preferred.
i collect vintage musical gear.prices in collectables have dropped by more than 40% just recently.no one is buying. your better off buying Picasso’s,or even more Dali. lol even gold for that matter.these are discretionary items,for discretionary buyers.you have to go look, to make a sale now. before,the sale came to you.
Invest in .22LR ammunition. That will be the new currency once the US dollars crashes, fake or wildly exaggerated civil unrest is flashed across TV screens, and martial law implemented accordingly and in response to the exaggerated unrest. Roads will be closed to truckers transporting food. People will need to shoot their own small game to survive. Hence the .22LR.
shooting larger 2 legged varmints may also become a necessity. The .22 LR is an excellent choice; cheap and still easy to come by.
My other purchase is BGZ at $10.60 for a quick trade.
Be afraid Mr Cain
There really is nowhere to hide. Pay down your debts asap and get diversified. This storm is going to be a doozy and our lives will prolly never be the same.
If the bond vigelantes are responsible for this bond sell off we are basically fucked because they won’t stop until the Fed backs down.
Scary scary scary times..
FACT: Weed is the buzzkill behind muni volatility.
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/2010/11/15/did-weed-kill-the-market-rally/
I got some NYX today based on risk/reward and the fact that cash volumes are coming back in according to the latest report, it got an upgrade, and the fact that I think volume will get directed away from tech/small caps on the NDAQ and back to the big caps at these market levels. CBOE is another stock that’s been gaining market share and is growing.
is this another misprint with thinkorswim?
they are showing the volume on /es Sunday through Monday after/pre hours at above 10 mill traded vs the norm of around 450k.
Speak fuckin’ English
Yep, check out the volumes on /TF too.
December 3, 2010 is the drop dead date for continuing appropriations for Federal budget. Congress could again shut down the Federal Government. I don’t know if it’s connected since I’m not sure how much federal dollars are left to flow to the states, but I’d guess, that if the states had to choose between paying salaries or other payments and paying debt coupons, they would choose salaries, and put the onus back on the feds.
I would guess wrong. They would furlough first.
I don’t think Congress will shut down government. To the contrary the lame duck Congress will spend like there’s no tomorrow, because for them there is none, especially the House.
Miller Sees U.S. Stocks Up 15% in Next 12 Months
Legg Mason Inc.’s Bill Miller said U.S. stocks may rise 15 percent in the next 12 months as the Federal Reserve continues efforts to inflate asset prices and boost the economy…
the US will need an IMF bailout at some point
The IMF is depending on it, as it has been planned all along. We hear about IMF-inspired austerity overseas in our news headlines here in the US. We never hear why the IMF is responsible for causing the austerity, which is not necessary. Based on that alone, it should tell you what is coming to the USA.
The media psy-ops are built for the masses and make for an easy read.
We are the IMF, I keep trying to tell you mooks that.
______
Not any more. We no longer have enough votes for a unilateral veto, although perhaps US + Japan still has enough. China’s weight has been increased, and guess what, China is our big creditor.
IMF is privately owned. It has nothing to do with the USA.
Privately owned by us, mooks.
____
Is that the same Bill Miller whose fund lost 70% in 2008 as he doubled down with billion dollar bets on Fannie and Freddie?
I plug my ears when that fucktard starts talking.
I live in Canada and we took our lumps in the 90’s, slashing Gov’t spending, boosting taxes and turning unsustainable deficits into yearly surpluses, until the recent downturn that is. Funny thing was, the Conservative Party was in power when taxes were raised, and the Liberal Party was in power when Gov’t services were slashed. Weird. We’re a bit more pragmatic and less driven by “ideology” up here.
The UK has also just started along that road.
Perhaps Obama should take the lead in cutting the size of Gov’t, because that may be more acceptable coming from a liberal, and the Republicans should go back to their conservative economic roots and decide that going into debt is not good and you need to collect enough taxes to pay for the services you want.
The US is facing a crisis and they need to start getting their house in order. There is a lot of senseless screaming but what what is needed is some real leadership, on both ends of the political spectrum. The bullshit from the extremes is becoming too destructive.
The world is a small place and we are all dependent on a strong and stable USA.
who cares, it’s Canada
fuck you eh
The UK has not really started along that road.
Apologies for those who dislike these interviews: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/11/13_Ben_Davies.html
Mr Canadian: Educate yourself for the next year on UN Agenda 21, and UN connections to the World Bank, BIS, and IMF. It doesn’t matter how pragmatic or ideologic you are. If you are uneducated, your own examination of your own self won’t mean anything to anyone. The US won’t come to the rescue because the US is now under attack from communist globalists who are far too integrated into the infrastructure to clean them out. Use your education to rescue you.
Well you all don’t get to vote on what the USA does. At least you should not be able to.
The USA will do what is in its people’s best interest, at least I hope so. If that means printing like there’s no tomorrow (and I suspect that is what it means), then that is what we should do.
I observed an interesting phenonmen tonight while watching the Redskins get trounced at my local water hole tonight. The well monied regulars(TBTF) were shooting spitiballs at the staff. I thought to myself ‘If only I were only one one the staff, I would grab a pitcher of beer and douse these elitist assholes’. Then I thought to myself, that one chick is hot though; and I would love to watch her husband seeing me do vile things to her.
In the end, all this ends badly.
Get help, Dave.
_____
Ha, ha, ha, The JakeGint
Vincenzo needs to add the add the edit function back. Watering. Phenomenon. Burn in hell, fuckers.
WRONG. When you come to iBC, bring your fucking grammatical A game, else go post some dumb ass shit on TIM’s site.
YOU’RE ALL ROACHES IN AN OUTHOUSE”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RwvoEw8s-E&feature=sub
Goodnite.
Don’t give me those New York smirks, Fly.
_______
That guy is super relaxed and laid back. I almost fell asleep listening to that.
The dollar is the biggest roach in this henhouse, anthouse, house of ill-repute, or… counting house!
Just a matter of time before you can make squeezins on the big Two again.
_______
Yes, TBT is working. I put a majority of my account on it a few weeks ago. I see it as a longer term short.
Call me a moron but I don’t see mun andi state bond rates taking a dive as a bad thing. To me it means those fucking profligate pricks are basically locked out of the markets until they bring down spending like cutting the pay of state and local public sector retards. It also means that any attempt to raise local and state taxes will be met with the fire of electoral hell.
This is a good thing longer term.
Treu!
In some regards the state and local gov’ts, no matter how profligate, are self-regulating.
Speaking of which, when the last rich guy leaves New York State, could he please turn the lights off? The cucarachas like it better that way.
_________
nice sell off in china tonight over stopping agri speculators…too bad Fly went to bed early.
Yeah, but at this point it looks like a puulback on an otherwise strong chart (6 month and year out). There is some fairly substantial support that needs to be taken out. “Support” in the technical sense only.
!!80 was a big one for many and it is slipping fast in rear view, POMO profits normally flow into the market starting at 2:30ish and peaking at 3:00, that will be key for any dip buying. imho
Shanghai’d
The William Dudley says chill out…
Did he not formerly work for The Goldman Sachs?
_______
Gentleman, these are unusual times. Not just unusual but unprecedented in history. People/govs have been QE’ing since they used clamshells for money. But this is the first time it’s been taken to this level and by most of the world simultaneously. The biggest fortunes are always made, and lost in the worst of times. In the relatively near future, Fly and men with the skills, knowledge & capital will have the opportunity to catapult into billionaire territory.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_XAPku7SgE&feature=related
As far as vacation destinations: I know you won’t consider it but, consider Singapore.
http://www.allthingsjimrogers.com/2010/11/12/jim-rogers-how-i-see-the-world/ (a sucky slow-moving interview, but a few good points)
Boy, everyone got bearish here overnight – the PPT was at 3.3 two weeks ago and the boards were giddy we were going higher…now 8 days of decline and the mob has finally turned…
Over the next 10 business days The V.King will be announcing the Top 10 Rock and Roll songs of all time. Today around noon he will release the #10 song on the list…stay tuned.
Irrelevant.
We know #1 already – Stairway to Heaven – just like every radio station list for the past 40 years.
Freeeee-biiiiiiird!!
_____
On the 20th Anniversary of the song’s release, Esquire magazine featured an article on the song’s success and lasting influence. Karen Karbo wrote:[32]
It’s doubtful that anyone knew it would become the most popular rock song of all time. After all, it’s eight minutes long and was never released as a single. Even “Hey Jude” was shorter, was a 45, and enjoyed the benefits of comprehensible words and a sing-along chorus. But “Hey Jude” isn’t the most requested song of all time on FM rock stations. Nobody ever had a “Hey Jude” theme prom or played the song at weddings and funerals like “Stairway.” “Stairway” couldn’t succeed today. Back in 1971, FM deejays prided themselves on digging deep into albums to come up with oddball, cultish favorites. With its near-oppressive length, erratic changes, and woo-woo lyrics, the quasi-medieval anthem was a perfect choice. It continues to be a favorite among music listeners who are younger than the song itself, listeners who, in some cases, were no doubt conceived while the tune blasted from car speakers.
__________
You’ll have to wait and see….#10 will be coming out in a hour or so….
The first person who can guess the V.King list, in order gets the grand prize….1 of every item from the ibankcoin store
let the contest begin.
Baby Beluga by Raffi
Celine Dion’s titanic tune
10 minutes of armpit noises from a sound effects CD found at a dollar store
Log Driver’s Waltz
White N Nerdy by Weird Al
Ninja Rap with Vanilla Ice from TMNT 2
Silent Night duet rendition by Kenny G and Mike Oldfield
Forever Young by some fag
Buckethead’s version of Dueling banjo’s
8 miles wide by Storm Large
Did I win the prize?
Too late to change?
I’d like to scratch off silent night, and replace it with “16 chickens and a tambourine” by Buck Shot and Benny.
nice try….you should just go back to being DePeezy
HA!
Couldn’t find that on Google or the ibc dictionary. A little help?
your Jedi mind tricks won’t work on me….
DMG are you ready for #10?
V.KIng –
Two words – Bring it on!
And the DJs needed a song for when they had to take a crap!
Stay tuned…there are some surprises….
I already know the best rock and roll songs of all time.
How did you get the V.King’s list?
Just blame this decline on option expiration – the Qs needed to get below 52 where the largest number of calls outstanding were…we are there now…go look for yourself.
T-Gods comin’ to save us soon???
1: i wanna hold your hand=beatles
2:satisfaction=stones 3:purple haze=hendrix 4:.. wont get fooled again=the who 5:maggie may=rod stewart…6:jumpin jack flash=stones..7:smoke on the water= deep purple 8: stairway to heaven =zepplin 9:born to run=springsten 10:toys in the attic=aerosmith
not necessarily in that order,but you get the tune
i should just say,i wont change the station in my car,if any of those ten are playing.
think whit box finds a way to fuk FTK?
Layla, Lola, With or Without You, Funeral for a Friend/Love Lies Bleeding, Under My Thumb, Satisfaction, Hey Jude, Good Vibrations, Sunshine of Your Love, Foxy Lady, Whole Lotta Love, When the Levy Breaks, Communication Breakdown, Walk this Way, Born to Run, Wish You Were Here, Hotel California, Magic Bus, Free Bird.
-er, When the Levee Breaks
Are you ready?
How is this surprising? Was it surprising when $300 – $1000 dot coms blew up? Was it surprising when $150 oil blew up? The Asshats (especially retail investors thru funds) have been piling into bonds hand over fist for 3 years!! If you ask me, bonds are and have been the risk trade.
agreud. Good observation SSTURN
Please submit your final list for the contest. Again if you can get all 10 songs on the list in order The V.King will buy you 1 of every item at the iBankCoin store…..
All entries must be submitted here before 12pm today…
Good Luck,
your list sucks compared to mine.
I like your top 17 list… your cut and pasting abilities and mindless drivle is worth reading
20 minutes
drivel? It’s fine if you keep it short. Too much drivel gets tired real fast. Thanks for that.
I only have 19. I’m gonna add “Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap.”
There’s gotta be 20, 10 is never enough.
‘Good vibrations”?!? Do you smoke pole for a living?
–back in the day…
Ah, i see… a reformed pole smoker.
Kidding… however, you are obviously over the age limit.
Oh, you said pole— I thought you wrote pot.
Number one I know for sure has to be Hava Nagila by Chubby Checker.
roflmfao.now that was good steve
Where are the fucking asshole dip buyers?!
in Little Italy eating cannolies
Step on up to the rape tree!
Rape tree is going to be in the studio recording a new jam with Flo Rida all day.
You may still be right re: DJ 10,000.
Should have held back your foul words.
cheers
I thought the market always went up on POMO days?
3 minutes …..
Ladies and Gentlemen iBC is proud to showcase….
The V.King’s TOP 10 Rock and Roll Songs
#10 ….. Revolution
The Beatles
Revolution was released as the B-side of “Hey Jude”, Lennon wanted it to be the first A-side released on Apple Records, the label The Beatles started, but “Hey Jude” got the honor. John Lennon wrote this in India while The Beatles were at a transcendental meditation camp with The Maharishi and smoked enough dope to kill every cow east of the Ganges. Nike later used this for commercials back in 1987. Capital Records, who owns the performance rights, meaning The Beatles version of the song, was paid $250,000. Michael Jackson, who owns the publishing rights, meaning use of the words and music, also had to agree and was paid for the song.
John Lennon wanted his vocals to have an unusual sound, so he recorded most of them lying on his back in the studio. The famous scream at the beginning is a double-tracked recording of Lennon.
Number nine better be Muskrat Love by The Captain and Tennille or else I will throw myself on my protracter.
William Shatner’s version of “Mr. Tambourine Man” is number one. No worries Nerd.
better yet,pat boone doing ozzy tunes
I’m going to the Ozzy Osbourne concert tonight!
Hey Fly– We need a new thread!!!!!
cotton or nylon?
Here’s my list: 10) My Sharona – The Knack, 9) SexyBack – Justin Timberlake, 8) Rock N Roll, Pt 2 – Gary Glitter, 7) Help Me Rhonda – The Beach Boys, 6) Dancing Queen – Abba, 5) I Kissed A Girl – Katy Perry, 4) I Think I Love You – The Partridge Family, 3) Pokerface – Lady Gaga, 2) Rock Lobster – B-52s, and my #1) Daydream Believer – The Monkeys
Let me know if I won.
nice!
I didn’t know the Beach Boys were considered that gay.
Only gay people think or hope that they are gay. What’s gay about muscle cars, chicks, & beaches?
Pet Sounds was a great album.
Asshole Dip Buyer here. FTK 2.65, LNG 4.60, sold BGZ 11.00 up from 10.60 this morning.
Goin’ up.
Im Dipshitz Dip Buyer at 12:20 ACI MRK FTK RF F.
They AIN’T gonna delay the GM offering.
Wow Mr. Fly , you were dead on again!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt-mZqnNPFU
Horatio clawhammer is surrounded on all sides, but still standing.
It’s beginning to look a lot like VXX-mas
What Fly? nothing to say on this joyous day?
A lot of idiot dip buyers still out there buying this pullback. We still have a ways to fall.
Adding to my short position on VNO
New short position on SP500 emini to 1160
You can talk all you want about pullbacks and dips etc, but the fundamentals have not been this bad in several generations. Traders can always find places to make money but I don’t have the temperament for that. I’m an investor and I have no clue where to invest now. Aside from a bit of real estate, I’m just sitting on cash.
Farmland.