I just covered my intra-day short in COF for a $1.30 profit. It’s a funny thing seeing these banks get raped like this; at the same time, stocks are relatively unscathed. Once again, the market should be down 250 today; but here we are buying dips.
I have a very specific purpose in life, which is to crack 40 ounce bottles of malt liquor on the heads of my enemies. Believe me, I have many, many enemies, some even in my own camp. I see who you are, plebs.
With regards to this market: there is no set up or secret sauce. When we enter bull mode, stocks go up. When we enter bear mode, everything goes down. Try to figure that out, then get back to me.
When managing money on a professional level, it’s important to think big picture, right? It’s not enough to simply say “I follow trends.” If I said that to my clients, they’d fire me on spot. Sophisticated investors want to hear a story. They want to know that you have an idea and willing to execute upon that idea for profit. Dare I say: we are setting up for a most horrific decline, one that will be remembered for decades. The bubble is being inflated and packed with idiots, who claim to be making “free money.”
This sort of rampant speculation NEVER lasts.
Having said that, I’d be foolish to believe the move is imminent. However, I am looking for signs that such a move could take place. The pin-less hand grenade action in the banks today certainly lends to the Armageddon thesis.
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first, but I don’t know why.
Because.
gay.
I guess no one told him that those who make the first posts on Fridays in October after 12 noon are gay. People need to be more careful…and less gay.
Indeud.
Forth.
Go Rangers! Down with the empire!
You mean Tex and A-Rod? 🙂
you mean a-fraud!? Check out CJ Wilson tonight, should be a good one vs CC
+1
Throughout 2009 bears were in denial that we were in a recovery. In the first half of 2010 they admitted there was a recovery, but it was going to be derailed by the double dip and Euro PIIGS debt problems. Now, the bears last psychological crutch is that the rally is phony due solely to Fed POMO pumping and Dollar debasing… What would happen now if we saw the economic numbers start to improve and the Dollar to strengthen? If we had rising Dollar and rising stock market, bears would have no excuses left and they would have to capitulate. So why would the market top now and let all the bears off the hook when it can finish them off first?
There is no recovery, never was, and never will be. The only thing that will happen is hyper-inflation will set in very soon. Fly is already posting about the huge rise in all kinds of commodities. Expect much more of that as the fed hyper-inflates us out of this mess. The world is awash with dollars which can never possibly be backed by this government and everyone knows that. That is why the dollar is dropping and will continue to do so with small counter rallies like today. None of this means the stock market will go down, it will actually continue to go up in perpetuity due to runaway inflation.
Yo do nah know wha you tawrking abow. We Chinee wiew frud da pranet wit aw kinda goods an stuff, so much munny is good to buy our sheet.. Get leady fo it.
Check out the open interest on PUTS for $GS on BigCharts. Looks like no one wants to fuck with the squid.
It’s hard to get off that bearish train once you are on it, huh?
Yep it’s the classic psychological trap… if you hated the market when it was 10% lower you HAVE to hate it more and more the higher it goes. Either than or admit that you outsmarted yourself 😉
Fly, you looking to short these banks?
The next big fraud will be to add Apple to all of the indexes – DJIA, Transports, Utilities, Small-Caps, Bank index, XLF – this way they can all go to new highs and everyone will feel great about the stock market again!
Apple will no longer exist as a company in 20 years. They have nothing to offer.
You haven’t heard about the flying iPad?
They have a brand name.
Enron had a brand name too
Yes. “Barbarians at the Gate”
Apple makes the best stuff…it works very well… my blackberry is a pos next to an IPHONE
My POS is an iphone next to a blackberry. ?
Important question Fly – do you like fruit loops with two scoops?
Fly you hyper than pinochios nose !
Das Efx is awesome.
I think I would went with ‘They Want EFX’ though.
An awe-inspiring sell-off is very near. Those of you who are perma-bulls or who think there is any reason for this market to be at its current levels will one day (soon) be watching your Scottrade account when – BOOM – just like that, your face will be on fire and you will be blind.
It will take you some time to realize that the pain and blindness is from a piping-hot slice of pizza which was just slapped across your face, courtesy of The Fly, who indeed “told you so”.
You’ll endure several triple-digit sell-off days while saying, “just a little dip, we can’t fall very far”. Your account will lose 25% of its value. The Fly will say, “I told you so”.
The end.
It’s obvious a correction is coming. Everyone knows that.. But can you tell me when?
There will be no correction. This is the start of hyperinflation, and the stock market simply will not have any meaningful sell-off ever again.
You’re assuming people actually “own” stocks. Who the hell does that anymore? I borrow them for the day, hopefully sell my hot potato higher to the next dumbass and wash, rinse, repeat. Flat at market close. No overnight exposure. Beats playing X-box. This market is a joke and will remain such until it isn’t. Adapt, adjust, trade accordingly. ……..But hold stocks in an account? That was so year 2000.
Mr. President, first stop try to suck Fly’s cock. Second get your own material. Fly should ban you for copyright infringement.
Everything you said could have been said in your own words without being such as kiss ass and copycat.
Good post.
Exactly.
People will step in 5% down from here, thinking, “this is the pullback”
It won’t be.
You tend to disappear when the market
is in bull mode,
and reappear when markets do what they do,
such as pullbacks or down days.
We all have different styles
and just because we’re bullish or long a percent of our portfolio
doesn’t mean we are doomed when a correction occurs.
You speak in generalizations that make little sense.
While we’ve had a bout of deflationary scares, I don’t believe we will have an extended period of cyclical deflation due to the Bearded One’s “mandate”.
Once the bond-tards realize that their much hoped for deflation has evaporated, and their days are numbered, stocks should work their way higher over the next 18 -36 months until the next Crisis.
We should never underestimate the stupidity of the American consumer to spend money just to feel good about themselves. Plus, we have a new class of consumers in Asia that want to look, act and feel like Amelicans (sic).
Don’t sell this rally short.
For you plebs out there, “the Bearded One’s ‘mandate’ ” does not mean he is gay.
That assumes they have money to spend. The ‘official’ unemployment and CPI numbers look great, but that’s only because folks who have been out of work more than eighteen months to two years are falling off the roles and are no longer counted.
Many are under water on their homes, or if not, saw their retirement savings wiped out. The younger ones cannot find work, but cannot move for work because of their homes, and even if they do, odds are, there is no work do to the stigma of not having worked for a year or more.
The older folks may have their homes, may even have them paid off, but will never find work due to age discrimination, many of those are starting to take advantage of Social Security and are retiring early. Amidst all of these are families who’s COBRA benefits have expired and if fortunate, they can scrimp for a catastrophic health care plan, but nothing on the order of what they had as employees — and often costing double(!) what their COBRA payments were.
Meanwhile, mix in true inflation in the products people really need, i.e., food for their bellies (seen the price of milk and produce lately?) and fuel be it for car, home heating, or as a feeder into anything.
The reckoning is coming, just a question of when.
stop!!!!!!!!!!!! age discrimination is alive and flourishing. 401 k’s are dying a quick death,fucking china has us right where they want us…and the fucking problem with the bearded clam and the rest of the MOTHERFUCKERS who have NEVER WORKED A FUCKING DAY in their life,are having a very big problem.they have never been fucking jackrolled by a thug, or fucked over by a crook CHINESE STYLE…………..indued,these asian mother fuckers are more slick than ANY washington self imposed intellectual wannabe’s…………they never grew up on the streets, and the chinks are kicking our ass just like a street thug……………dont look for this president to have the balls to call them out, cause they’ll just send a chinese woman to bitch slap the sissy. the reckoning has already landed my friend. we are merely reacting, and negatively might i add……….. the band always keeps playing while the ship sinks.
Remember that Krull video from the spring where his face was all distorted?? Time to bring that one back. Love the euphoria into the bell on the Q’s. It’s basically springtime all over again, despite my backyard trees that are “alive with colour (sic).” Hard to find a spot to make a buy where you’re not overtly chasing. The big-slow dividend names, LLY, PM, are long-toothed. Christ, even MCD (McDoogal’s) is breaking out.
I don’t eat no damn fruit loops, only oatmeal.
You don’t know what you’re missing… Froot Loops are good for any age.
I’m coo-coo for CoCo Puffs, myself.
Oatmeal is the bomb. With raisins and a little cinnamon and splenda on there. It keeps you pooping good.
People over the age of 47.5 should eat oatmeal… all others should enjoy, Trix, Froot Loops and Fruity Pebbles
If under 47.5 you shouldn’t have any problems “pooping”
oatmeal has complex carbs…Fruit Loops have no nutritional value (just an excuse to drink milk.)
Nice to see I am not the onlt one who eats oatmeel,
I let it sit for one hour in water befor e cooking it,
because it makes it fluffier, then add some milk.
But I digress.
If, as Fly said, the market went up on an anomaly,
I see no reason for it to go down significantly.
Today would have certainly been the day.
I am a cautious bull.
I eat my oatmeal with bacon. Try it. You’ll like it—as long as you’re not Jewish.
I mash bananas, and sprinkle raisins, cranberries and walnuts on my oatmeal.
The walnuts are good for your sex drive.
Tyr it sometime.
sausage eggs and hashbrowns everyday. I’m not fat because I’m not starving by lunch and grabbing baconator combos with a side of asian noodles at the food court.
Expecting at least 40 NQ points of sell off, on tuesday.
http://chart.ly/ygab4wc
There is no coming congressional solution to this mortgage crisis.
Congress is campaigning or on vacation until 2011. There are no last minute saves coming. The mortgage market is locking up. XLF has another 10-15% down from here, at minimum.
This should lead to some very dramatic margin calls for John Paulson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThpdB-W89gg#t=0m51s
Anybody NOT expecting an imminent sell-off?…
I expect the opposite of what everyone else expects. Therefore, the Dow will be at 12,000 by month end, and 20,000 in five years.
sounds about right 😉
I am expecting a pullback of 3 to 5 percent.
Im not expecting an “imminent sell off” Im expecting a catastrophic collapse. . Wall street is on a goverment induced sugar high . There is no rational answer for stocks trading at these levels.
I went short XLF just before close. Exactly because of the last line in Fly’s post above. Ready to flip.
“the market should be down 250 today; but here we are buying dips. ”
In my 20 years or more of investing I don’t remember seeing this dichotomy where the dow is down over 40 points and the nas is UP ove 30??? Amazing times we live in…is this a clue? I sure as fuck don’t know!
“Believe me, I have many, many enemies, some even in my own camp. I see who you are, plebs”
Try not to hurt people who love you!
Over and out! Good weekend to all…even the republicans 🙂 I understand you are limited in the brain/thinking capacity but THE GOD (don’t confuse this with Muhamad or Jesus or trivial crap like that) loves you and MADE you this way. Only when you understand these limitations that you are ready to move on to higher level of consciousness 🙂
Love to all unless you correct my spelling/grammar, in that case, fuck you!:)
New Xanax scrip is working out I see….
______
Xanax makes you fat…you wouldn’t know about it since you are nearly 300lbs and still live in denial that you are just born with “big bones”:) YOU AR FAT MOTHERFUCKER AND THAT’S THE TRUTH. Of course you have no concept of reality, you’re a fascist..err…republican so who am I to expect a reality from you?
But, in final analysis, I said, “good luck to all, even the reps”…The best answer for you would be: good weekend to you too, NO?
Cheerio,
Joe, are you really Micheal Moore?
The sad part is that we paid for it through Medicaid.
Please, please do not waste good malt liquor spilled on the heads of heathens. I personally offer to sip away at your stores for as long as I last. But, with nary a sip, yet, I still play my old tune about the investment value of selected MLPs. Am I naive thinking that transporting gas and liquids is in our future for decades to come? Excluding the bearded clams’ brain farts which have their own half life.
The Dems think this mortgage gate thing might keep them in power. So expect a lot of press about it for the next 2 weeks. Then it will fade. People who cannot or will not make their payments need to get booted out and the house re-sold. That’s the only way we get through the shit and the banks get it all behind them.
People who are making their payments, or own their house, hate this shit. Scumbags getting something for nothing. They will not vote for it.
I hope everyone bought AAPL this week for next Monday party.
Don’t use splenda. It gives you cancer.
I second that
And makes you blind. Just ask Glenn Beck.
It’s nice to hear from toast face again –> http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-15/mozilo-settles-sec-fraud-claims-for-67-5-million.html
This is an up only market. No selling until the end of the dollar. If you dont believe me, look into what happened to the German stock market during the Weimar Republic. I figure it will be clear that we have hyperinflation when the prices of houses and natural gas actually go up instead of down down down. And that time is very close at hand in my opinion. Foreclosuregate is a sign of a bottom in housing in my honest opinion, also, Natty was down a whopping .12 today (that is not sarcastic) and many of the drillers were up, including EOG and CHK. This is going to get really interesting very soon.
There will not be another Weimar, they didn’t have China to save them..
It could a little Argentina or Poland though 🙁
Stocks flat for eleven, twelve years, worst decade since, like, ever, stocks down 25% in 10+ years, divis + buybacks nearly twice the yield on the ten year, entire sectors well below historical averages and…
A hanful of bubblish valuations. A big move from momo to value could cause almost as much chaos and agony as a crash
Point being, imo, we are nowhere near bubble here…
When we enter bull mode, stocks go up. When we enter bear mode, everything goes down. Try to figure that out, then get back to me.
I think USD is behind this up and down game.
What do you say Dr. Fly?
Ban drummerboy.
I will not tolerate racism on my site.
I had to go read that “DB” …rant…
Malt Liquored?
Thank you, Dr. Fly!
and i love yuz too……….now bite me
That wrinkled old fucker exceeds the age limit anyway…..
hahaha wilmer,but i’ll bet i can pick your old lady up in a bar, and do her 20 minutes after i meet her.i just dont like obese fat chicks with bleach blond hair.cause then i’ll have to dip her in flour just to find the wet spot…….
One of the saddest parts of aging is the Senile Dementia.
Fly, here is your evidence that hyperinflation does help stocks…fwiw.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-israel-inflation-crisis-2010-10
The consumer is not nearly is as dependent on Oil in Israel.
Its an extremely pedestrian country, and mostly depends on public transportation, (scooter, bikes,buses) etc.
If oil crosses 110 or above, retail will get absolutely hammered in the USA. We are the most car dependent country, anywhere.
Inflation will, long run, be reflected in stock priiices. <=a period
This is a suspect argument. America is not nearly as homogeneous as Israel; our people will likely adjust in ways that split reinvestment, as opposed to accepting 500% inflation and pooring our money back into our markets. It comes down to national pride.
Also, America enjoys far more alternative imports which would likely hit the domestic companies hard.
Everybody is so grumpy when the market goes up. This has to be the most hated rally in history.
Sure it is,
because everybody had it in their heads
the month of September is historically the worst (data supports the premise),
and October was the month to buy stocks
at a discount.
It didn’t happen that way,
and so many folks are pouting.
It sucks to be them, I guess.
You think I know Fuck Nothing!
I Know Fuck All!
The bank deserve to be taken over by somebody. They are not fit to loan money. Look at the mess our housing market is in. So many seller are under water or behind on their payment, it’s not even funny. Try working in the field. You think the stock market is a joke.
Helicopter: Have I ever sounded grumpy?
Just a general Banking question:
I know some Canadian Banks have purchased U.S. Banks in the past, so are there restrictions from U.S. public from dealing straight to Canuck Banks?
What do you mean by restrictions? There are foreign ownership rules in terms of percentage.
Why have none of you jibber jabbers talked about AAPl and the OCTOBER calls…..Everyone could have retired —oppp. of a lifetime…..
Kinda lame no aapl INFO HER/??
Apple is a fad stock.
Believe me, I thought they were going to peg AAPL at 310 today for option exp. The 310’s (calls) were trading at .50 – .90 for most of the morning. Ended the day at $5! This isn’t trading people……….this is gambling!
Who needs Vegas?
Yes, but I don’t think taking that trade is part of a viable ongoing business. You will be wiped out making bets like that.
Dear Mr. Fly, I couldn’t agree with you more!
I have just recently become a huge fan!
I love your daily sarcasms!
You are one of the fucking funniest fucking analysts on the internets!
I hope like fuck you are correct about the eventual horrific decline in stocks!
I’m betting on it!
LOL
What are you betting?
Where is the market weakness,
other than the financials,
to support a “horrific” decline in stocks?
Look, I’m not some chart technician or pretending to be some stock market guru, I am strictly going by gut feel and my gut is telling me that everything is fucked!
Gold reaching new highs tells me that no one has any confidence in any currency.
The devaluation of the American dollar is driving commodities up and that is not good for anyone, everything will eventually cost more.
Jobs are not coming back anytime soon!
QE2 is admitting that everything is fucked and we are saying that we are willing to fuck it some more!
The only reason stocks are going up is the belief that the FED will continue to come to the rescue and prop things up!
This Mortgagegate may become a fiasco! I’m shocked that the markets were not down by a ton today!
10 year bond below 3% is telling you something ain’t right. Foreign exchange markets are telling you something ain’t right. Equity market saying everything is great. Which one is wrong?
20% employment = 80% have employment… the market will go up until it stops, then it will drop back down….. that’s what it does.. that’s all that it does… do not think why…..why does the wind blow? Fuck some days are windy some are not…
Does 22.5MM seem like a large enough fine for Mozilo?
To all the bearshitters out there…
http://www.kirkreport.com/2010/10/13/lifes-not-fair-get-over-it/
dollar down 10%…. market up 12% — not sure what else there is to say.
Friday was an interesting day with some major divergent themes and I have yet to read a blog from anywhere mentioning the signals:
1) dollar was up on strong volume — very unusual. Signalling huge interest. Call buying in UUP was massive. Especially with the QQQQs on fire.
2) TLT chart broke — huge exodus out of bonds… I thought the Fed was buying this forevermore…
3) adv/decline ratio was terribly negative…. and ratio of bearish/bullish engulfing candlesticks was 26 to 1.
4) most obviously — bank stocks signalling a major crisis — breaking down… big cap tech ignores this completely…
We’re going into next week with the GOOG/AAPL/AMZN names at nosebleed levels — and they are the ONLY reason the market is strong. Even a mild pullback.. say AAPL tests 300… is nearly a 5% drop in the indexes. Still amazed everyone I know is staying long — today showed some huge shifts in the force. I can understand why the market would shrug it off as Bernanke cheer led the morning to boost the opex returns and volume was mostly light…. but not in UUP and the bank stocks.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market drop rapidly next week until the Fed gets it back under control. CNBC commentators will be undoubtedly surprised at the violent pullback but it’s all there in today’s charts.
Actually, it showed up a day or two earlier than that…But good eye!
decliners beat advancers by 4:1 yestaday………just the volume in buys on vxx was just………just MAVALUS.
As I ponder forclosuregate… I really think its all bullshit.
The people in forclosure have not paid their mortgage, right? Even if there was a procedure legal issue, they will all make big settlements and carryon.
I don’t believe the hype that this will bankrupt the system again… Bernanke wouldn’t allow for such stupidity.
In the short term however, the uncertainty will hurt.
The real issue is not the stupid dead beat home owners. The issue is the legality of the documents and subsequent sale of MBS to institutions/pensions. They can now tell BAC to make them whole, since BAC sold them fraudulent MBS.
Get it?
Exactly!
I hear ya but I think they will pay a settlement and move on. Wouldn’t settling avoid the fraud sales admittance? Which would avoid all of the angry MBS holders demanding to be made whole?
Demanding? They will be suing. MBS holders are mostly funds and fund managers have a FIDUCIARY responsibility to seek remedies. Fines won’t get it done.
one just has to look at the GM debacle and its debt holders..you all saw what happened to that
Fly, thanks for sharing that thought. Also, in addition to the threat from inst/pensions you mention above, isn’t there some talk about attorney journals of several states demanding banks pay a fine of $25K per mortgage done using “fraudulent” paperwork? That could be an expensive affair.
True
I sold a lot of Bac about a week ago though not all.
I went back and read some research reports particularly from Credit Suisse’s management meeting back in August when this stuff wasn’t in focus.
Credit Suisse also recently talked about this and the real issues with documentation is the period of 2006 and 2008.
It seems from their earlier reporting that the repurchase problem is not as huge as what people are making out.
As for the foreclosure problem.. as far as I’m concerned that will turn out to be a non-problem. If people haven’t paid their interest for 1 to 2 years they are going to get the fuck out of those homes and nothing is going to stop that happening. Period.
The real focus is on the repurchase. Frankly I think the issue is overblown especially now since investors have had a long time to go through their docs and see if there are problems. In other words it would have happened by now and I’m more than a little certain that the auditors would for both the internal and external auditors seeing this is where the banks have been raising provisions.
I think this is hot air and will end up costing the banking system a lot in legal fees though.
banking mortgage-gate is overblown. agreud.
Yeah you’re right! It is until it isn’t!
I remember everyone saying the same about Subprime!
Go Figure!
Yeah. we have to always remember that markets trade on emotion, not logic, in the short term. It’s not about reality, it’s about the PERCEPTION of reality. Trying to figure stuff out in the short run is sometimes a futile task. This is where you want to watch the charts more closely and exercise good money management right now.
I appreciate your wisdom and comments. Thanks for returning to iBC.
I think I must be at the wrong website. I thought this was ibankcoin, but if I didn’t know better I would think I was at zerohedge or slope of hope. It’s bearshitting and doing the hugh hendry 24/7 lately.
Bullshitting is no better!
Bullish
I covered my cof short today and have a long biased portfolio. I am simply telling you why bac is down 13% in two days.
That said, you are still holding all your BAC shares ?
Gonzo has a point.
I must say it is fun to muse about the future…sometimes down is up and up is down.. sometimes the wind blows out of the east… go fly your fucking kite…
Nothing is fucked. We might be simply going through an orderly correction sector by sector right now. The FED boys got this under control. My guess is that bank stocks are going to surge hard next week.
I sold bac weeks ago. It was posted
I’m the same guy who told you, you were for shorting when you did early october and that you were greedy. Then I also said now I would be shorting and that you turned bullish now at the top. I am also the same guy who mighta asked u in the past for a job to handle more money. Now Im killing my managed small accounts and building wealth my friend. Your days are numbered and your starting to show your inability to be flexible and bend. You buying tops and selling bottoms. You suck massive fly cream
Hmmmm I thought all the QE crap was to prevent deflation.
My logic is all the vacant homes inventory is super high it will take about 3 yrs for it to work out you cannot flood the market with too many homes or prices will keep falling.
So you control the flood. The market prices remain stable add a few QE and you can speed the process up only so far.
I just think our standard of living will fall over the longer term.