I sold out of all of my TZA and TLT, one for a break-even, the other for an atrocious loss. Big give back in my personal/aggressive accounts, to say the least. Believe it or not, they are still up triple digits, thanks to earlier victories. Lesson learned, time to move on.
With some of the TLT money, I bought 25,000 shares of HRBN and more FTK. So you know, I have millions in FTK.
In short, I am still long lots of VXX and my unbooked losses are in the millions. But, over the past few days, I’ve been buying some stocks, in an effort to crawl out of the murderhole I find myself in. Top longs include: FTK, AKS, HRBN, C and TEVA. Without hesitation, I will switch back to the FAZmobile, only this time when the trend says so.
Essentially, I have 40%+ cash, short MELI, short AEM, long VXX and the longs mentioned above.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSxLzrXurJI 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
LMLP
Le Roi est mort, viv Le Roi?
Wow!!
I have no doubt you will make it all back good Sir…AND MORE!!
time to go short?
BANNED
BE NICE
I just too my second position in VXX…I will not capitulate until we are over 1175-1180.
Same goes for my gold shorts. So stay irrational…I’m still solvent.
If you would have left for Romania a month ago you could have bought all the goats in the country with the money you would have saved. As a bonus, you would not have had to run through the fields naked. Instead you could have been garbed in the finest Romanian mountain shepherd cloth available.
That, sir, would have been summer weight designer burlap.
+1 You’re hitting on all cylinders,Flaps…keep it up
I concur with your decision. There will be better shorting opportunities ahead. I only folded completely a couple of days ago and am now completely net long (unless you don’t count my BAC position, which should be considered a short)
I, for one, am looking for the day when a killer earnings beat is “sold”…that has been a good signal for a couple of the recent significant dips…
I am still holding my 25% TLT position, since decisionmoose has told me to. We’ll see if he caves this weekend.
I also picked up a new tranche of VXX today, just for the unexpected…
So that means TZA hit botom today? I mean your timing has sucked lately….
just look at your short on MELI and AEM
Buy TZA unless you believe the market will never ever go down again and maybe it won’t!
Or just play it candy assed and wait for the trend to turn down first.
you’re banned too
Fly…son…u can dish it out but not take it…Mama approves the Costanza fly trade..
Let me do the honor of banning myself from this site full of sheep.
Done and a good week- especially MU for having probably screwed the majority of traders today.
Off to caddy a couple of Nationwide golf qualifiers the next two weeks and if my kid gets in (tough to do) and if he is in the last few groups and gets on the Golf Channel and if I don’t throw out my back I’ll be the one wearing the FIG hat (need to find one first).
Booyah. Just like I teach all my Cramericans: Buy high. Buy lower. Buy more lower. Then, capitulate at the bottom.
asshole,and we saw what kind of teacher/disciplinarian you turned out to be
Seriously…the natives are unruly today…
WTF is with the loonies coming out of the woodwork as if any of them have traded sums even equal to the Fly’s gains?
Normally a sign of a short term top…when the loonies start thinking they are geniuses, look out.
Couldn’g agree more. FLY tough loss bro. I have an unbooked tza loss on the papers.
Loonies always think they are genius. If you think you are genius, then you know you’r a loo….
indeued
Fly,
Even though it has cooled off here in New York, you have to keep that new sod watered .
One inch a week. Don’t let you’re sprinkler guy blow out the system yet. Tell him to come back after
Halloween.
up triple digits ? as in up $100 ? LOL
Do you play guitar?
Better learn because you’re in the BANNED.
LOL nice!
FLY, I am having an Appletini at Abe and Luoie’s in Boston and said to my sister after the close of market, let’s see what Fly has to say. To say the least we were stunned but niot really surprised to see you sold your TZA. WOW. I’ll have another Appletini in your honor before getting on the train home.
Now that Fly is mostly long market will plummet on Tuesday. Anyone want to bet?
highly unlikely
I bet you you have never traded stocks or know anything about it…
Amazing to see all these morons popping up here today…
PS. A man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do.
what’s with monday?
he is scared of monday… bond desk is closed though, so is Canadian market.
Last time you moved off a staunch stance that we must correct soon was, I think, april, just before we corrected ourselves senseless. Just an observation
Alot of “after the fact” master traders on here.
If you’re so good, go open a stocktwits account, or a blog, and record your calls in real time. Otherwise,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucihhWjcNqk
The key lesson to remember from all this is do not fight the BEARDED CLAM.
I hope G7 meeting bitch slaps him so hard….today the market said they are all pussys…..grow some balls IMF and slap him hard….ok, I feel better, had to release my fustration over today.
Why get frustrated? The Fed is telegraphing their intention is to rally the stock market. Why not just trade with them instead of fighting them.
That is the trade….everyone has been using that playbook since 2009. Too crowded, something is going to crack…just knowing when is my lesson I must learn.
Stop trying to predict and just react. I have been saying since 2009 that the game isn’t over until the market stops reacting positively to a falling Dollar. It’s not rocket science. Just think about it for a minute, devaluation of the Dollar is the only tool in the Fed’s arsenal, QE is just another fancy term for this. It will work just so long as the stock market likes it. And IMHO the stock market will like it as long as the bond market likes it. Once the falling Dollar starts causing the bond market to tank (in spite of Fed bond buying) then it is time to get the fuck out of Dodge. Period. End of story.
one more point… it could start Monday or 5 years from now. I don’t pretend to be smart enough to figure that one out, but I don’t need to be. Just watch and react.
yea,well how fucking long does employment and organic growth in this fucking country remain in stasis
who gives a rats ass…
are we trading the unemployment rate or the stock market?
Well IMF is going to be part of countries intervention plans…still trying to research to see if it will slow us down.
Damn… y’all are some serious shit-talkers. We’ve all been wrong before. The only way to cure being wrong is to stop being wrong and dude stopped being wrong by selling.
Who said i was mostly long? Can you read?
Too late. You’re banned
Who said i was mostly long? Can you read?
Too late. You’re banned
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-10/08/content_11384001.htm
Good articale on chinese potash..
I behhht…dehm ooollll.
Banned so much i said it twice
I could not agree more on your MACRO views. Everybody is Feeling what is happening to the Economy. The only point is, if we accept that the Fat Fingers need their Politicians to win, then they should keep the face of the market till Nov. Afterwards they will take the juice and let it down. You see, everybody !! will have a happy X-mas.
The Fly and Tim Knight have capitulated. What’s next?
Le Fly is not a good fade but he just got too enamored with the PPT indicator which is a mean reversion tool and mean reversion will get you killed in a strong trending market. The Fed can create strong trending markets via their monetary pump priming and that will and did run over a mean reversion trading strategy.
Let me know when Zerohedge, Denninger, Evilspeculator, Daneric, Kenny (and however many other Trillions of bear blogs) capitulate though. Then the bulls will have something to really worry about.
Besides Tim Knight will captitulate for maybe a max of 72 hours. If we have a down day Monday he will be right back to his permabear stance it is like a religion for him. I hate to think of how much money newbies have lost by following his blog.
speaking of Timmay… I hadn’t looked at the comments ection of his blog in several months, but I was curious to check it out today. The thing that struck me was how all of last years “regulars” from his comments section have totally disappeared now and been replaced by new batch of “regulars”. It is not really surprising because at the rate those clowns had to be bleeding red ink it was only a matter of time before they were out of the game. Luckily a sucker is born every minute or Timmay would run out of an audience for his blog real quick LOL!
I see you’re still here! That makes you the biggest clown of all!
You Fucking ClownTard!
say what?
You’re banned?
I hope you people realize, selling tlt is not capitulating. Also, selling tza is not significant. I still have my entire vxx position
Around the time I can’t hold back the urge to brag is when I get clobbered. Feel like crap for selling out of this rally 400 DOW points ago but at least I’ve only begun to short.
Won’t be happy till I hit quadruple digit percent gains!!!!
No, the lesson here is to cut your losses when you are on the wrong side of the trade..no matter. FLY is still fucking awesome but now he mentioned giving our man Scottie ibankcoin is VXX went to 14…holy shit are you really going to do that? I’ve moved onto Flemmings for that Appletini iin your honor Fly..
That works for some people, but not me. Everyone single trade I’ve made that turned out to be a big gainer had at least a 20% drop before running up.
Last May I bought DAN at around 1.60. Fucker dropped down to sub 1.20 but I held in and added more. About three weeks later it was at 5.00. A year later it’s been over 14.00. No, I didn’t capture all that move but I got a pretty good chunk of it.
Guess it depends on your trading style and conviction level.
http://bit.ly/cwBdfj
I wish I sold my TZA last week.
F it. LMLP, nice winner V kings. I own it from 1.80
The next NUHC you ask? soon as I am finished buying I shall let you all know.
regards
chuck
It takes a man to own up to his losing trades. Tip of the hat to you Fly. Its strange how none of these people posint comments have never lost a penny or made bad trades..go figure.
Keep swining that monter horse cock.
Youre the man
If you’re not First.. you’re last. Is some cases it better to be last, than first. Poof I’m a turtle.
Why did you sell TLT, out of curiosity??
Sold tlt to raise cash in order to finance future trades
gotcha…thnx
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-10/08/content_11384984.htm
another good article.. chinese bailing out Italy
China is trying to buy friends all over the Med area. First Greece, now Italy. I’m guessing Spain and Portugal next. Makes sense.
And even more sense…China doesn’t want the euo to fall and dollar to rise thereby foiling China exports. China will be bailing all the piigs in order to keep her RMB in step with usd. Look for her buying debt of greece, italy , portugal, ireland etc.
ezakly
perfect sense
Its clear ur gettn murdered. Now I’m gonna go balls to the wall short. I was. The guy telling u not to short wen u did u fuckn retard
Fucking John hasn’t got five dollars in his wallet and leases a 2007 Honda Civic on a bi-weekly payment plan and yet he talks as if his dick is 24 inches long!
Fuck Off!
You Wishful Thinking Fucking Parasite!
I didn’t start actively trading until 2008. Did the “so-called “bear blogs” like zero-hedge, market ticker, etc… exist during the 2003-2007 bull? Maybe not the exact same ones but the same general contrarian presence?
You know i didnt need to do this post at all, right?
John
You’re banned
I really don’t think it matters whether a person is long or short. Don’t you guys see that the Fed wants all, I said ALL, of your money? They will rig the game so long or short doesn’t matter. When the big plunge comes, and it will, they will simply suspend trading and confiscate all private accounts in the name of the “greater good” of the USA/martial law or whatever you want to do call it. Do you think it can’t happen? ………What the hell do you think the new national security force wrapped into the “healthcare” bill is for, …..you fools…..
Don’t believe me? A simple Google search of (healthcare bill national security force) will give you all the facts you want, or don’t want to know. It’s in there people and the kind folks in DC or where ever the shots are called from, are getting ready to eliminate all opposition. (just go ahead and look, I know you want to)
At this point, I am pondering the possibility of a Biblically proportioned crisis that is engineered just prior to the 2012 elections. This of course would give ample reason to suspend them indefinitely.
There now. Can’t say you haven’t been warned.
Y’all have a great day now.
brought to you by malado dick head jagoff POS wefare motherfucker barry obama who thinks taking money from EVERYONE, to give to life long wefare grubbs is how america should be run.i wish someone would put a bullet in that motherfucker’s head
I think you are about to get visited by some scary dudes in cheap suits.
Give it 3 weeks and we’ll be 30% lower than where we are now.
It’s just so obvious.
We may not go a penny higher than this week’s highs.
Just watch it happen.
we’re going to drop 29.9%, then shoot straight back up and stop you out flat.
Reality,
I am not naive enough to think we won’t have a pullback of some variety,
but, from what I’ve read about the intial stages of a bull market,
it is good that this market right now continues to show strength.
Read some of Mark Minervini’s stuff on Stocktwits for some opinion on market psychology here.
I have some inverses and VXX in my port.
I’M not sure what makes you think we’ll pull back 30 percent.
What indicators support that deep of a pullback?
30%?
Not that much so fast
Hmmm… I picked up some TZA today, was supposed to be a day trade, got cough in the wrong moment, so now it’s become a swing trade, with me hoping there’ll be enough chop on Mon for me to get my money back… So looks like I’m getting into TZA when much wiser heads are cutting it loose… Not a situation which helps my blood pressure, for sure… 8-(
Dr. Fly,
I would love to hear your thoughs on this food futures crazy rally…
Mr.P
You will be hearing from my lawyer regarding your name. It is trademark infringement and diluting my brand.
Ag futures are an indicator and they are bloody screaming inflation. How long it takes equity holders to realize this simple fact is anyone’s guess.
Good move. Things are better than people think and not as bad as they feel. The economy will limp along here at an anemic pace, with over 9% unemployment, yet corporations can remain profitable , hanging on to their productivity gains and seeing revenue gains fall straight to the bottom line now as nonproductive fixed costs have already been slashed, and 40% of revenues on average driven from oversesa markets. This market will continually build higher for the next 18 – 36 months until the next outlier event.
And then there’s this on the horizon…………
HR4646
2/23/2010–Introduced.Debt Free America Act – States as purposes of this Act the raising of sufficient revenue from a fee on transactions to eliminate the national debt within seven years and the phasing out of the individual income tax. Amends the Internal Revenue Code to impose a 1% fee, offset by a corresponding nonrefundable income tax credit, on transactions that use a payment instrument, including any check, cash, credit card, transfer of stock, bonds, or other financial instrument. Defines “transaction” to include retail and wholesale sales, purchases of intermediate goods, and financial and intangible transactions. Establishes in the legislative branch the Bipartisan Task Force for Responsible Fiscal Action to review the fiscal imbalance of the federal government and make recommendations to improve such imbalance. Provides for expedited consideration by Congress of Task Force recommendations. Repeals after 2017 the individual income tax, refundable and nonrefundable personal tax credits, and the alternative minimum tax (AMT) on individuals. Directs the Secretary of the Treasury to:
(1) prioritize the repayment of the national debt to protect the fiscal stability of the United States; and
(2) study and report to Congress on the implementation of this Act.
This is exactly what the market wants to see. Deal with the deficit…even if the plan is lame or stupid, at least it’s a start. Begin to address the problems and get rid of more qestions.
Exchanges would hate that. But I think it’s a good idea. Make the bots pay.
And that my friend is why it will never…………..pause for effect,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,fly
GS would lose their high speed trading advantage if every transaction cost them 1%.
Monday DOW + 40.
Turnaround Tuesday DOW – 150.
Then I capitulate and sell TZA for an egregious loss.
My Fly, I’ve been reading this blog for 4-5 years. I have never bought a stock that you said to buy and have never sold short something you said to short. I read the blog because you’re honest and it’s comforting in some strange way to follow someone else who can eloquently express how frustrating this can be at times. You are at your best (blogging) when things are not going well for you. Fuck anyone who mocks you or criticizes your stock picks, I can’t even imagine putting my daily thoughts on the record in a public forum.
Amen.
yessir!
I have followed Professor Fly in the past… straight to the coin
FLy’s a pimp
Indeud!
if you think you can get better “inside baseball” commentary about this market on other sites then go to those sites and prosper. If you are here reading this site and spending your precious time doing so, why would you criticize someone laying it on the line right or wrong. The fact is the Fly knows more about this market then 99% of the readers here. If you have been right for the last run up then congrats, but that does not make you better then anyone because I know, I was long September and I basically don’t know what I am doing. The real test is over 5, 10, 20 years. How many of us have millions of dollars ?
Le Fly needs to remember this…
http://markminerviniblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/market-commentary-friday-october-8-2010.html
“Attempting to buy oversold conditions and sell overbought conditions as a trading strategy can be risky business. Trading with disregard for a strong directional trend will eventually lead you to buying into a bear market’s precipitous decline or shorting right into a powerful new bull market. Major market declines always begin with deeply oversold readings and roaring bull markets always get way overbought early on before they advance further.”
It takes a real gentleman to admit when he’s wrong and move on.
All of us have made plenty of mistakes but few have the winship of the Fly – a toast to you good sir
Not feeling that AEM short. That one day slam on PMs yesterday may be all we see for a while. At some point, PMs and miners are going to go parabolic so that’s a dangerous play if you don’t have any stops or call options as a hedge. I hope you’re right and we see a pullback so I can add to my miner core but today’s complete reversal from yesterday’s hammering may be a sign of further gains.
I am not anchored to it. I will give it a few more days.
The Fly was just early in my unwashed opinion. Delayed but ultimately not denied on the outlook. Smart move to make a cut and avoid the 15 yd. sack that results in a fumble and 6 going the other way.
Fly was gold in Jan, May/June when the downside fuckery was in vogue. Now its upside fuckery. Go figure.
Of course if I had any real sense I wouldn’t be a NY Nuts fan either. I can think of something worse than selling a TZA position right now — being stuck in a Beltran or Castillo contract — that’s real pain.
Dr Fly,
Would love to hear you rationale on FTK.
Yes, your post gives me hope regarding my FTK stock. I too would like to hear more about your rationale on FTK.
Scott
FTK has an interesting history with Fly – and I too would enjoy an update on that. A couple of years back, it was to date the only time I recall Fly mentioning a ‘source’ — and we had some fun bantering about his ‘source’ and his diamond studded collars or some such thing which somehow concluded with a mutual recognition that 2 sticks of butter is the preferred way of a gentlemen when drinking Earl Grey tea…but I digress.
As always, thanks for all your good work here, Fly.
As a side note, it’s odd that people are compelled to ‘offer’ that Fly’s best posts are when he’s ‘losing’ — I certainly disagree, as would any literary man.
Fly must have enough FTK to elect a new board if he wants.
Now you’re catching on…………….
Bullmarkets are much more fun than Bearmarkets. This epic melt up may last Till after Obama’s reelection in 2012… Then the world will come to an end so who cares anyway?
To Fly and all his viewers:
I can see the future.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2010/10/08/the-tail-that-wags-the-dog-that-wags-the-tail/
Shoulda, woulda, coulda listened. Now its too late.
I happened to just recently read Fly’s old post about the late 90’s run. Specifically, when he ripped off his former sales manager’s book that had fired him until he was served a cease & desist order.
That is my favorite post thus far… Even though I had to read it in the archives.
Great stuff
As a lumbee Indian. In the heat of battle today for better or worse. I stood with honor on by my side.
As the heat fear grew hotter, i did now bow to the fear of the material world, If god is for me than who can be against me says the lord.
Picked up another 4000 shares of TZA today at $23.60!
I hope I know what the fuck I’m doing!
I not saying the twins wouldn’t have lost anyway but seriously…this ump sucked balls.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-twinsyankeesumpires100710
Two dropped games at Target Field = disgrace.
You are as wrong about my Junkees as you are about your gold short. You will suffer accordingly.
___________
Fly,
If you have millions in FTK that means you are potentially over a 10% shareholder?? Thats pretty effin awesome. Maybe you can sit on the board.
FYI — settled on the Boon Fly hat… the tee shirt was too geay, sorry.
Coming your way once I get home.
_______________
Most everyone on this site is fucked!
You’re beyond dillusional!
When this market finally tanks, it’s going to happen so fast that those fucking tight stops that you think you have in place to protect yourself against any downside won’t even matter because your stock will have a bid that is at least 20% below your stop!
Fuck you all and have a nice weekend!
Agreed