iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,598 Blog Posts

“The Fly” is Dead; Long Live “The Fly”

There is no need for me to discuss the yen and how it will destroy the Japanese export market. There is no reason to discuss the potential downside to QE II or even the reasons to initiate such a program. There are no reasons to be cautious, since the dollar goes down. Therefore, stocks must go up. There are no reasons to discuss the downside ramifications of European and America austerity, providing the GOP takes control in a month. We do not need to worry about tedious currency or trade wars or malignant unemployment. All we need to worry about it right now.

Living in the right now economy, everything is based upon expectations. It’s a contradictory thesis, but true. Everything is fast. The market is quickly and expediently pricing in a full recovery and rapid inflation, all at the same time. Why else would gold be north of $1,300? Can both co-exist?

Over the years, I’ve come to realize the market is a terrible pricing mechanism. It’s a rarity to see the markets behave in a manner that coincides with actual economic data. More often than not, the market is simply guessing, like most of you. Case in point: dot com bubble, credit crisis and subsequent recoveries.

Like it or not, right now the economy is pricing in an extension of the Bush tax cuts, a GOP landslide, a major uptick in employment. While it’s true, the banking system is completely impaired. It’s also true we are pricing that in too.

As the final hour of trade commences, “The Fly” is being “Stunt man Mike’d” due to a belief system gone wrong. Sometimes it’s better to know nothing and live free; than to over-think the little digits and letters and live in hell. The new America is enjoying a period of “decadent poverty,” where free lunches are served with fine silver and everyone wins.

Off to drink a glass of water, filled with live waterbugs.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn3BcUCm3IA&feature=related 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

83 comments

  1. Bullish

    FIRST

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. Grammar Police

    European austerity or America austerity

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. Southie

    FIWS

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. robert(rob_pvb)

    oh well. it was fun while it lasted. it was a good run.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. Sam

    “decadent poverty” FTW!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. Bullish

    Matt Nesto is calculating all the future gains for stocks… perhaps this is the top.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. Grammar Police

    How often do you see a stock like YUM trade at the same price level for 30 minutes?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  8. mrkcbill

    I won my Fantasy Football game last night!
    Fuckin A… Fly the abortion known as Wall Street / DC is doin what is does. Hell even Bob Pisani is calling Bullshit on the Rally …sure buy signal.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • robert(rob_pvb)

      you ‘play’ “fantasy football”. total loser.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • mrkcbill

        You haven’t lived until you see Rashard Mendenahll lumber 60 yards for Touchdown. sheesh
        Go refresh zerohedge

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • robert(rob_pvb)

          go play with yourself

          • 0
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • pistilstamen

          Watching Rashard Mendenhall go for a 60 yd TD in OT Is even better when it’s scoring points for your “real” team.

          • 0
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • NSAID

        You don’t play fantasy football? You must be a girl.

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • Hard Right

          Or a Democrat.

          • 0
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • robert(rob_pvb)

          who in fuck would play ‘fantasy football’ except a total loser with absolutely no life and no money? you. and lots of other losers.

          • 0
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  9. ckaltner

    Devil dog is toasting you from his bunker

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  10. AI

    the market is just pricing in Zimbabwe dollars thats all …. How long did it take for teh people to understand what the government was doing in Zimbabwe?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • Gordon Gekko

      What was the government doing in Zimbabwe? Jerking off Mugabe. Everybody knows.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  11. jimmie

    Seems to me the market did the exact same thing earlier in the year when it was pricing in a more robust recovery and then got religion and realized not happening.

    Crazy robots!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  12. db

    GID, long live…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  13. TheV.King

    decadent poverty…brilliant (ibank) COINED here first…served by the way by Citigroup’s boy Obama

    and the ‘waterbug” comment was hilarious!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  14. RaginCajun

    I would rather be dead than nutless. I hope young TURD is ok, nutless, but ok.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  15. Josh

    Is gold an inflation hedge or is it the only store of value left after global CBs get their F10 keys stuck?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  16. Apocalypse Now

    The Stock Market will hence be renamed:

    The Shock Markit

    Fed up with mark it manipulation, public intervention makes private planning very difficult. Do not use logic, do not use fundamentals, just surrender and trust us.

    There is a tale in gold – wise are buying physical gold and the complex must prop up everything else. If gold keeps going up, people will sell out of all other assets and pile into gold. Perhaps paper market caps will morph into physical market cap.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  17. RaginCajun

    $$ New Leader: http://bit.ly/bjQi2e

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  18. wilmer

    The soup lines will be full of men dressed in tuxes.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  19. Po Pimp

    Hell it’s all good now. Obama and Lil Tim came out and said that TARP + AIG Bailout cost us $30 bln. What a fucking deal. We got a great price for all the entertainment that was spun off from the financial crisis. Well worth it. Can we do it again soon? I’m free on Thursday.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  20. YaBollox

    Never Say Never~

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePIImGMjn_8

    waterbugs in the water = free meat!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  21. panamaorange

    Unless we see a further overnight rally in the Euro,or an unusually bullish inventory report tomorrow, Oil can retest 74 very quickly.
    Im having a hard time seeing how the rest of the market can keep rallying, if commodities hit a wall up here.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  22. Sierra Water

    Gold is not pricing in “rapid inflation”, it’s pricing in the inevitable collapse of global fiat currencies and the demise of the dollar via hyperinflation in the US. I said it 4 years ago and nothing has changed other than your thesis, bouncing back and forth, when all you had to do was put 50% of your clients’ cash in gold related investments when it was at $480. It was all very plain to see back then and if you had sat back and thought in a more secular fashion, instead of chasing that month’s hedge fund play, you could have detroyed all your enemies without even stepping out of your “space ship”. Basically, my family is financially secure for the rest of our lives without lifting an arm due to holding “worthless” gold and silver bullion + gold shares because quants from MIT derived OTC derivatives to the tune of 20 trillion that held no real collateral. That was the thesis then and it is the same now with the expected result occuring.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoA89ACTflk
    Sierra Investor

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • Disguiseyflaps

      Your confidence is endearing; however, I sense you sport a handlebar – waxed daily, with loving care.

      As such, I advise that you keep looking over your shoulder.

      Your right one.

      -No – your other right one.

      And for God’s sake – use a coaster…

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  23. Helicopter Ben-jammin' aka. Bearded Clamfucker
    Helicopter Ben-jammin' aka. Bearded Clamfucker

    You do have to wonder what Bearded Clam is thinking here. How exactly is higher oil and food prices going to help US consumer spending? I guess they think wealth effect from rising stock market, but all I keep hearing in the news is how Joe Sixpack is not even in the stock market anymore so no wealth effect there… No doubt QE will goose asset prices and hence price inflation of commodities, and will enrish some billionaire speculators and prop desks but I don’t see how it will help the real economy or jobs. In that regard it will likely do more harm than good. But who cares about the long run anyway, just milk this bubble for all it’s worth.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • Prospectus

      Who needs consumer spending? The central banks are the spenders now

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • The_Real_Hmmm

      You neglect the fact that household wealth has shifted away from homes and towards tax incentivized savings plans.

      One purpose of theirs is to use the perception of lower risk across asset classes. Business executives compare investment strategies to what the present cost of capital is (bond returns, etc.). If interest rates are lower they may be more compelled to invest in capex and employment. Unfortunately, we are petering out on the cost cutting and inventory replenishment cycle we have enjoyed.

      Income growth is not strong because businesses aren’t hiring. Disinflation and lower nominal inflation growth further dampen the need for employers to pay workers more. Additionally, slower income growth means less of the needed adjustment in household debt to income comes from rising income, which puts more of the adjustment burden on paying down debt. This has been recently noted by the Fed as MBS prepayments have unexpectedly increased, forcing them to maintain the current size of their balance sheet and purchase UST notes (targeting a duration of 5 years).

      A decrease in inflation also has the effect of increasing the cost of credit when the Fed funds rate is zero because as inflation decreases, the REAL interest rate increases. The Fed has cautions about expanding its balance sheet because of the risk of losing credibility and tinkering with long term interest rates. Expansion would also increase the Fed’s interest rate risk because upon exit as they raise short term rates, they will squeeze their net interest margin. If people think they will hold rates low longer, then this will hurt the credibility of their dual mandate.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • Po Pimp

      No doubt QE will goose asset prices and hence price inflation of commodities, and will enrish some billionaire speculators and prop desks but I don’t see how it will help the real economy or jobs

      Trickle down economics.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  24. Itchy & Scratchy
    Itchy & Scratchy

    The fly is dead. Long live the fly!!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  25. alphadawgg

    Tomorrow and Thursday, I will be moving out of my ultra 2x long funds and trading positions and buying IEF. This only applies to short term money.

    Still will remain long and strong in intermediate and core equity holdings.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  26. WTF

    Jobs are irrelevant for recovery. The conclusion is that I no longer need to work at my day job.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  27. Bubbles

    Well like others have said, it was a good run. Hopefully when you come back from the dead, you will be back to your rage filled, swearing ways.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  28. Teahouse On The Tracks
    Teahouse On The Tracks

    Short & Sweet Daily Recap from OEW:

    “The last time the market was trading at these levels was in May. Now that it appears the resistance at SPX 1150 has been cleared, the next major obstacle should be the SPX 1220 bull market high set in April. The market ended the day extremely overbought, and a pullback of 10-15 points can occur at any time.”

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • winship

      Ive been checking in on OEW since u mentioned it awhile back, very interesting, and thx for mentioning.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • drummerboy

      fuckin a, i laughed so hard till i got to reading up till here and vxx still looks as pretty as a madison street hooker. lol

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  29. Correcton: Moose With Big Antlers
    Correcton: Moose With Big Antlers

    Will we open tomorrow up or down. ?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  30. Geoduck

    If you think the market makes no sense, then you have to question your thinker.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  31. riverpod

    I was trying to figure out if I should heed the advice of Tepper or Rosenberg so I went to the urban dictionary to find out more about them. Now I’m not sure I should listen to either of them.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  32. theman

    listen up asswipes: nobody knows nothin’

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  33. TraderMark

    An amber alert has been issued for an elderly man…in his 400s…by the name of Merlin.

    Unsubstantiated reports are that he was smothered by an avalanche of dollars and yen somehwere between Tokyo and D.C. His dragon is not talking but has what appears to be bite marks from a bearded clam.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • JakeGint

      400’s? Merlin walked the earth in sixth century Briton (Wales).

      That bitch is 15 hunnit and sumpin’!

      ___________

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  34. flyaway18

    Where I work, free lunches are served with plastic sporks,
    and it may be the only meal a kid eats all day.
    And the poorest families are being rendered homeless,
    because the slumlords’ tenements where they once lived are being foreclosed.
    You’ll be fine Fly.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  35. Correcton: Moose With Big Antlers
    Correcton: Moose With Big Antlers

    Can someone point me to the bathroom

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • flyaway18

      Moose, Correcton?
      How about we point you to a dictionary where you can learn how to spell.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  36. buylo

    Developing…..it has come to my attention that Le Fly is negotiating to add KK to be the next IBC tabbed
    blogger. So, don’t make a move until we have some really meaningful advice from no other than, Kim
    Kardashian!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  37. london

    EQIX points the way of the fairy tale. It’s tough to imagine that cloud computing could be fluffy, I know, but there you have it.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  38. Old Friend

    Fly, you’ve become a stubborn ideologue. Truly a sad state of affairs.

    ~~~

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  39. lol

    golden cross coming up… silver skyrocketing to the moon…
    WHEEEEEEEEEEE

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  40. Chuck Bennett

    In vegas.

    Cant believe my eyes. Crazy taste. BEXP up huge. makes up for my TZA. annoying at best ths all is.

    Maybye the government is here to help us get rich. Get long, get rich. Looks that way.

    I borrowed money todat @ 2.00% and bought more ATPG bonds and others. Using “free” money I am getting almost 30% yields on short term papers. 5 years and under. forget pimco,reits or other bond funds. they are gay.

    regards

    chuck

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • Milktrader

      Where do you get money at 2%? I want some.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • alphadawgg

        Indeud.

        1 Month LIBOR + 175 basis points = 2%

        Stop dealing with Zeeco, get a $1,000,000 account, and start dealing with a major wirehouse for your prime broker, and you can get cheap money too.

        I just pledged assets for a LOC at 2% and lent the money to a business start up at 7% plus 25% of the stock.

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  41. gregoryajohnson

    I love this fella …

    http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  42. alf44

    “It’s like watching your girlfriend dance with some tool, as you watch from the luxury of a full body cast.”

    Perhaps the most descriptive analogy of a missed opportunity I’ve ever read ! LOL

    That is some hilarious imagery !

    BRAVO Le Fly !!!

    .

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"