There is no need for me to discuss the yen and how it will destroy the Japanese export market. There is no reason to discuss the potential downside to QE II or even the reasons to initiate such a program. There are no reasons to be cautious, since the dollar goes down. Therefore, stocks must go up. There are no reasons to discuss the downside ramifications of European and America austerity, providing the GOP takes control in a month. We do not need to worry about tedious currency or trade wars or malignant unemployment. All we need to worry about it right now.
Living in the right now economy, everything is based upon expectations. It’s a contradictory thesis, but true. Everything is fast. The market is quickly and expediently pricing in a full recovery and rapid inflation, all at the same time. Why else would gold be north of $1,300? Can both co-exist?
Over the years, I’ve come to realize the market is a terrible pricing mechanism. It’s a rarity to see the markets behave in a manner that coincides with actual economic data. More often than not, the market is simply guessing, like most of you. Case in point: dot com bubble, credit crisis and subsequent recoveries.
Like it or not, right now the economy is pricing in an extension of the Bush tax cuts, a GOP landslide, a major uptick in employment. While it’s true, the banking system is completely impaired. It’s also true we are pricing that in too.
As the final hour of trade commences, “The Fly” is being “Stunt man Mike’d” due to a belief system gone wrong. Sometimes it’s better to know nothing and live free; than to over-think the little digits and letters and live in hell. The new America is enjoying a period of “decadent poverty,” where free lunches are served with fine silver and everyone wins.
Off to drink a glass of water, filled with live waterbugs.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn3BcUCm3IA&feature=related 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
FIRST
Now SECOND. I never win.
THIRD!
sluts!
European austerity or America austerity
FIWS
oh well. it was fun while it lasted. it was a good run.
“decadent poverty” FTW!
Matt Nesto is calculating all the future gains for stocks… perhaps this is the top.
saw a lot of that weirdness yesterday in CIB among others.
but it’s called HFT
How often do you see a stock like YUM trade at the same price level for 30 minutes?
whoops see above
I won my Fantasy Football game last night!
Fuckin A… Fly the abortion known as Wall Street / DC is doin what is does. Hell even Bob Pisani is calling Bullshit on the Rally …sure buy signal.
you ‘play’ “fantasy football”. total loser.
You haven’t lived until you see Rashard Mendenahll lumber 60 yards for Touchdown. sheesh
Go refresh zerohedge
go play with yourself
Watching Rashard Mendenhall go for a 60 yd TD in OT Is even better when it’s scoring points for your “real” team.
You don’t play fantasy football? You must be a girl.
Or a Democrat.
who in fuck would play ‘fantasy football’ except a total loser with absolutely no life and no money? you. and lots of other losers.
Devil dog is toasting you from his bunker
the market is just pricing in Zimbabwe dollars thats all …. How long did it take for teh people to understand what the government was doing in Zimbabwe?
What was the government doing in Zimbabwe? Jerking off Mugabe. Everybody knows.
Seems to me the market did the exact same thing earlier in the year when it was pricing in a more robust recovery and then got religion and realized not happening.
Crazy robots!
GID, long live…
decadent poverty…brilliant (ibank) COINED here first…served by the way by Citigroup’s boy Obama
and the ‘waterbug” comment was hilarious!
I would rather be dead than nutless. I hope young TURD is ok, nutless, but ok.
Is gold an inflation hedge or is it the only store of value left after global CBs get their F10 keys stuck?
The Stock Market will hence be renamed:
The Shock Markit
Fed up with mark it manipulation, public intervention makes private planning very difficult. Do not use logic, do not use fundamentals, just surrender and trust us.
There is a tale in gold – wise are buying physical gold and the complex must prop up everything else. If gold keeps going up, people will sell out of all other assets and pile into gold. Perhaps paper market caps will morph into physical market cap.
$$ New Leader: http://bit.ly/bjQi2e
damn.great work RC. thanks for your efforts
I’m stupid. I thought the contest was over?
eat shit
The soup lines will be full of men dressed in tuxes.
NO soup for YOU!!!
Hell it’s all good now. Obama and Lil Tim came out and said that TARP + AIG Bailout cost us $30 bln. What a fucking deal. We got a great price for all the entertainment that was spun off from the financial crisis. Well worth it. Can we do it again soon? I’m free on Thursday.
Never Say Never~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePIImGMjn_8
waterbugs in the water = free meat!
Unless we see a further overnight rally in the Euro,or an unusually bullish inventory report tomorrow, Oil can retest 74 very quickly.
Im having a hard time seeing how the rest of the market can keep rallying, if commodities hit a wall up here.
your an idiot and should just be quiet we are going higher….
“your an idiot” , eh?
hope you got a refund on your copy of “strunk and white”
http://blog.urbanbohemian.com/2009/04/08/5201/
Another victim of Government schools.
Another victim of mormon home school.
Gold is not pricing in “rapid inflation”, it’s pricing in the inevitable collapse of global fiat currencies and the demise of the dollar via hyperinflation in the US. I said it 4 years ago and nothing has changed other than your thesis, bouncing back and forth, when all you had to do was put 50% of your clients’ cash in gold related investments when it was at $480. It was all very plain to see back then and if you had sat back and thought in a more secular fashion, instead of chasing that month’s hedge fund play, you could have detroyed all your enemies without even stepping out of your “space ship”. Basically, my family is financially secure for the rest of our lives without lifting an arm due to holding “worthless” gold and silver bullion + gold shares because quants from MIT derived OTC derivatives to the tune of 20 trillion that held no real collateral. That was the thesis then and it is the same now with the expected result occuring.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoA89ACTflk
Sierra Investor
Your confidence is endearing; however, I sense you sport a handlebar – waxed daily, with loving care.
As such, I advise that you keep looking over your shoulder.
Your right one.
-No – your other right one.
And for God’s sake – use a coaster…
No shit, Sierra wrote the same thing on the old blog 4 years ago.
He was only six years after me, then.
______
You do have to wonder what Bearded Clam is thinking here. How exactly is higher oil and food prices going to help US consumer spending? I guess they think wealth effect from rising stock market, but all I keep hearing in the news is how Joe Sixpack is not even in the stock market anymore so no wealth effect there… No doubt QE will goose asset prices and hence price inflation of commodities, and will enrish some billionaire speculators and prop desks but I don’t see how it will help the real economy or jobs. In that regard it will likely do more harm than good. But who cares about the long run anyway, just milk this bubble for all it’s worth.
Who needs consumer spending? The central banks are the spenders now
You neglect the fact that household wealth has shifted away from homes and towards tax incentivized savings plans.
One purpose of theirs is to use the perception of lower risk across asset classes. Business executives compare investment strategies to what the present cost of capital is (bond returns, etc.). If interest rates are lower they may be more compelled to invest in capex and employment. Unfortunately, we are petering out on the cost cutting and inventory replenishment cycle we have enjoyed.
Income growth is not strong because businesses aren’t hiring. Disinflation and lower nominal inflation growth further dampen the need for employers to pay workers more. Additionally, slower income growth means less of the needed adjustment in household debt to income comes from rising income, which puts more of the adjustment burden on paying down debt. This has been recently noted by the Fed as MBS prepayments have unexpectedly increased, forcing them to maintain the current size of their balance sheet and purchase UST notes (targeting a duration of 5 years).
A decrease in inflation also has the effect of increasing the cost of credit when the Fed funds rate is zero because as inflation decreases, the REAL interest rate increases. The Fed has cautions about expanding its balance sheet because of the risk of losing credibility and tinkering with long term interest rates. Expansion would also increase the Fed’s interest rate risk because upon exit as they raise short term rates, they will squeeze their net interest margin. If people think they will hold rates low longer, then this will hurt the credibility of their dual mandate.
No doubt QE will goose asset prices and hence price inflation of commodities, and will enrish some billionaire speculators and prop desks but I don’t see how it will help the real economy or jobs
Trickle down economics.
The fly is dead. Long live the fly!!
Tomorrow and Thursday, I will be moving out of my ultra 2x long funds and trading positions and buying IEF. This only applies to short term money.
Still will remain long and strong in intermediate and core equity holdings.
Jobs are irrelevant for recovery. The conclusion is that I no longer need to work at my day job.
Well like others have said, it was a good run. Hopefully when you come back from the dead, you will be back to your rage filled, swearing ways.
Short & Sweet Daily Recap from OEW:
“The last time the market was trading at these levels was in May. Now that it appears the resistance at SPX 1150 has been cleared, the next major obstacle should be the SPX 1220 bull market high set in April. The market ended the day extremely overbought, and a pullback of 10-15 points can occur at any time.”
Ive been checking in on OEW since u mentioned it awhile back, very interesting, and thx for mentioning.
fuckin a, i laughed so hard till i got to reading up till here and vxx still looks as pretty as a madison street hooker. lol
I kept the vixen but dumped the slut (TZA) ….
Will we open tomorrow up or down. ?
it is not how we open… it’s how we close
1188 next resistance level on SPX …. but it is just a number
and tomorrow is another POMO day…
probability of rally is very high
Wait. Are they buying long bonds or S&P’s tomorrow?
See #4
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=pomo
If you think the market makes no sense, then you have to question your thinker.
I was trying to figure out if I should heed the advice of Tepper or Rosenberg so I went to the urban dictionary to find out more about them. Now I’m not sure I should listen to either of them.
listen up asswipes: nobody knows nothin’
An amber alert has been issued for an elderly man…in his 400s…by the name of Merlin.
Unsubstantiated reports are that he was smothered by an avalanche of dollars and yen somehwere between Tokyo and D.C. His dragon is not talking but has what appears to be bite marks from a bearded clam.
400’s? Merlin walked the earth in sixth century Briton (Wales).
That bitch is 15 hunnit and sumpin’!
___________
Where I work, free lunches are served with plastic sporks,
and it may be the only meal a kid eats all day.
And the poorest families are being rendered homeless,
because the slumlords’ tenements where they once lived are being foreclosed.
You’ll be fine Fly.
Can someone point me to the bathroom
Moose, Correcton?
How about we point you to a dictionary where you can learn how to spell.
Developing…..it has come to my attention that Le Fly is negotiating to add KK to be the next IBC tabbed
blogger. So, don’t make a move until we have some really meaningful advice from no other than, Kim
Kardashian!
ROFL
EQIX points the way of the fairy tale. It’s tough to imagine that cloud computing could be fluffy, I know, but there you have it.
Fly, you’ve become a stubborn ideologue. Truly a sad state of affairs.
~~~
golden cross coming up… silver skyrocketing to the moon…
WHEEEEEEEEEEE
In vegas.
Cant believe my eyes. Crazy taste. BEXP up huge. makes up for my TZA. annoying at best ths all is.
Maybye the government is here to help us get rich. Get long, get rich. Looks that way.
I borrowed money todat @ 2.00% and bought more ATPG bonds and others. Using “free” money I am getting almost 30% yields on short term papers. 5 years and under. forget pimco,reits or other bond funds. they are gay.
regards
chuck
Where do you get money at 2%? I want some.
Indeud.
1 Month LIBOR + 175 basis points = 2%
Stop dealing with Zeeco, get a $1,000,000 account, and start dealing with a major wirehouse for your prime broker, and you can get cheap money too.
I just pledged assets for a LOC at 2% and lent the money to a business start up at 7% plus 25% of the stock.
Noyce!
I am also in on a similar deal: manufacturing an army of cloneflaps hitmen at 2.01%!!
Cloneflaps hitmen? Indeud!
Joey bag o’ predator drones, is that you?
No, but I am a fan of his, and I am hoping to take a few drones from his bag, if you know what I mean.
To the Flaps Cave!!
I love this fella …
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
“It’s like watching your girlfriend dance with some tool, as you watch from the luxury of a full body cast.”
—
Perhaps the most descriptive analogy of a missed opportunity I’ve ever read ! LOL
That is some hilarious imagery !
BRAVO Le Fly !!!
.