I’ve decided to punish myself for missing out on this epic rally. From here on forth, until the Dow touches down on 10,000 again, “The Fly” will behave like a gentleman and WILL FORGO using the devil’s language aka cursing. It’s the least that I can do, considering the stock market Gods must be upset with me. It’s a sacrifice of sorts, a symbol of dedication and delusion.
If you haven’t noticed, I’ve taken a break from rational thinking and find myself rooting for disaster, zero-hedging without compunction. It takes a big man to buy NFLX every day. In that regard, “The Fly” is somewhat small. However, I do know a great deal about the inner-workings of the market, as it has afforded me a comfortable living for more than a decade. All of my principals and investment acumen point to one singular position: caution. Is it acceptable to lose money due to your beliefs?
Well, that’s a question that is up for debate. By no means am I an ideologue, some ashhat [sic] who finds pleasure in disaster. Quite the contrary. See, I am only and specifically interested in buying your margin liquidations. This type of market is of no use to me, as everyone is running together, like a herd of zebra. I will have you know, “The Fly” is unique and would never be seen with a herd of any sort.
Some of my longs went up today, specifically C and FTK, which in turn helped couch the pervasiveness of my VXX loss. In actuality, I made money today in managed accounts, yet chalked up another loser in my personal.
I said it once and I will say it again: this run is unsustainable and will fail. Everything about it is illogical and deviates from rational thinking. Everything you read and hear is a lie, a grand scam. Look you, I have immense staying power and will ride this out, as long as I deem fit. As the market continues to defy the basic tenets of logic and reason, I will get more aggressive and bet bigger. This is not a game anymore and I am not flogging around. Always remember, “The Fly” wins all the time, especially during periods of grave duress. This story will end, as all of the others in the past: winship for yours truly.
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THE FLY IS GOD!
😉
Great Post Fly.
You used the Devil’s language.
LIES
Indeed… LIES are the devil’s language.
Ahh – you cursed while pledging not to curse unless asshat is a honorable word.
Corrected
He used ‘ashhat’. He stopped himself from cursing. Read more carefully!
this is great. Everytime you have made one of these promises, it has happened. And that post after it happens is always fucking priceless
Indeud.
I like the tune…
“I dont want your Gonorrhea” – lol
take you QE 2 vitamin a day, and you’ll get 40 points that way!
lol, yea just take a couple of M&M’s, and call me in the morning.
WHAT. THE. FUCK.
Joshie, is that you???
from where, “you’ve been JOSHED” come from?
okay that didn’t make much sense. somekind of french/german/english translation got mangled up inside me brain.
anyway, meaning, josh, the one that was joshed often here..
which reminds me.
Fly- can you bring back the asshat awards? how about a monthly? at least… these were great.
Swearing off swearing is no big deal, really as you’ve done it before. Those of us who got into thos move before the herds did, will be in an awesome position once this epic reversal occurs.
Tenets motherfucker.
BEARDED CLAM says to Le Fly:
“QE 2 Muthafuckaaaa!”
You have not betrayed me. Bring the world together under one rule before the earth reaches the galactic plane and the dracos return.
Corn, Wheat falling….Goldman Sachs promising QE Trillions that the Tech buyers, MoMo’s have already priced in….US Dollar Shorts at Mid 2008 levels, LME Copper at Mid 2008 top…..too much Oil,etc with China going to probably use the beat on the PMI’s as a reason to pull away more of their stimulus spending……….I was so close to getting the push down I need today,drats, well with Australia, England and ECB meeting next week and the Yen at the spot the BoJ likes to intervene at…something has to break soon. Markets going straight up, as Jeff Macke said once, never end pretty
If I had a penny for everytime you say things were sooo close for your analysis to being right…. well I’d be a billionaire.
I’ve become a billionaire fading the Indian iron ingot trade.
Indeuuuuuud!
_______
Palm Oil has been my specialty – made a half a billion fading it – I should have known to choose the Indian iron ingot.
Actually, if you only got a penny…and I have been only at this for 3 years…you would not be even up to a dollar or so….actually, this is my fustration, the China numbers aren’t matching up with the physical ground stuff…. China is making speeches like this about being the last year of 5 year plan http://www.gov.cn/english/2010-10/01/content_1714214.htm ….It is easy for longtime traders to laugh at me for making rookie mistakes and missing stuff…but each day I study and learn more and more about all of this. When the market is moving up fast everyone feels like a Market Wizard and that they are “gifted” by knowing how to follow a trend well….well I want to know why this trend is moving in the given direction….FLY has the balls to put his analysis out there and stand by it….I don’t want to be a person buying the move up and selling the move down without question, a Bot could do that better then any human out there so why even bother doing that….I may fail over and over again, but you know one day I may get it right….it’s a learning process…the weekly articles that SOOO many hate are also a learning process for me…..I may be one of StockRiders “Basement dwellers”… but one day
whip out the cold CO2 there are bedbugs on this board
Maybe you should censor all of the music too, like Tipper Gore slapping around Afroman’s cock like a tetherball.
Fly Post Fly!
“The Fly” is unique and would never be seen with a herd of any sort.
Aside from the Zero-hedge/Karl Denninger/Mister the Devil Dawg herd, you mean? 😉
_______
Those are now my peeps. To hell with you guys.
Is “to hell with you guys” considered cursing?
I think he meant — “dash you all, ruffians!”
_______
how bout a herd of Zebrasses?
http://blogs.abcnews.com/.a/6a00d8341c4df253ef0133f2a2487e970b-400wi
I am now positioned for an 829.68 drop in the Dow come monday, for mild mannered Fly post must surely be a black swan event.
The world trembles.
How long are you willing to stay on the wrong side of the trade?
I’d rather be rich than right any day.
I’m not fond of the risk/reward of new longs here but I’m not selling either and certainly not shorting.
There’s a good punch to the face coming but as Scott says it may be very temporary as we melt up into expiration.
I will say this much, I’m a long term bull but the level of giddiness is starting to get worrisome.
Forever.
Denninger is an OTB gangster…Mr. YRCW..
Dr. Fly,
Good post.
Mr.P
Have a great weekend, Herr Fly.
What? no devil language? this is BullSHIT. I gotta find another asshole to read? mutherfuk’rr.
Make that a herd of two. The higher the market goes the more i love my shorts. Congrats to the long team on the blog. Cash in your winnings soon.
Along with cursing Fly should suspend bannings and let the inmates run the asylum as well … just for some equilibrium.
On a more serious note, the new Chief of Staff looks like a 60-year old Eric Cartman.
I plan on drinking copious amounts of QEII on ice this weekend.
Neighbor Fly. I thought I should let you know that Fly,Jr. came running to our house in tears thinking something was wrong because you haven’t eaten 2″ ribeyes in a long time and in fact have been eating meatloaf instead. I told the Boychik not to worry and that his Dad is a Mentsh and will soon be noshing on ribeyes and swearing and throwing beer cans at the illegal gardeners. He thanked his Uncle Steve and he feels better.
How can the Fly be a Mentsh and God at the same time?
The Fly art Trintarian and therefor art Mentsh, God, and Most Holiest of Spirits.
your best one yet … Pastorflaps
DOW 10000? IF it goes there around end of October or so, it will break the uptrend line from 9614 to 9936 AND the uptrend line from the the March 2009 lows.
Maximum technical damage possible.
……..”would never be seen with a herd of any sort”.
Not even a herd of horny ho’s? A gaggle of giggly girls? A pack of pretty pussies? A flock of fabulous fems?
At this point in this run, it feels eerily like April 1, 2010. March 2010, though not as strong to the upside as September 2010, was a decent month. Characterized by a very relentless, low-volume, grinding move to the upside.
The aforementioned upside move would grind on to a significant top the last week of April that preceded the flash crash in the first week of May. I’m beginning to think we’ll see similar action with the trigger being everyone buying on the rumor of QEII and waiting to sell on the news of QEII.
On September 22nd I posted in the comments section of one of Fly’s posts that I’d be taking positions in inverse index etf’s and leveraged inverse sector etf’s along with some VXX on the 23rd and 24th. Alas, the upside surprise on the 24th dissuaded me and I am currently long only a starter position in SIJ (very low 18’s) and VXX ($17.80ish). Still looking to round out those inverse and volatility positions but may have to wait a few more weeks if history is going to repeat itself and this upside move continues a la April 2010.
fifd
Eventually we will get a pullback. But if anyone thinks we will do it in spectacular style ala “Flash Crash”, they need to get their noggin checked. Those types of “Whooosh” movements don’t happen too often. Once every 23 years or so, no?
Do you really think the forthcomming earnings season will be bad? You want your kids to have an unhappy Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas? You think Obama and Bernanke do? Well do ya? 10,000 indeud !You and TK are smokin the wrong stuff. Good Day!
When I decide to change direction, Obama and Bernanke will be flat as pancakes.
What they want or do not want, will be of no consequence.
Pretty sure there was an election following Sept/Oct 2008…not to mention a Thanksgiving and Christmas. Let me check my sources and get back to you…
QE 2 gonna whup yo ass!
It did seem like his wrath came upon you when you cursed him and went the other way.
The verse that came to mind was..
God cannot be mocked.
Just saying…
For some reason I believe you know what I am saying.
ok, i understand about unsustainability…
there’s nothing new there
but why not just nimbly dart in and out as you have done for the last few years and just flip to short when it blows up?
do you expect a hyper flash crash, too fast to react to?
why now? is there so much snow on the mountainside that a seed dropped by a bird could trigger the avalanche?
rerun: hurricane – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLThjyfqkJg
Fly – can you have jeremy plot the historical data regarding when you have taken your oaths to the stock gods and when your devotion is rewarded. surely this is a niche of fly’s brain that must be encoded into the PPT.
rack rack rackem rackem
The stock gods have given you free will. They are not unhappy with you. Just like the parent still loves a child who has made mistakes, the stock gods still love Fly. I’m sure of it. When you are right 80% of the time, that 20% comes rolling around once in a while.
I likes special situations…..
That said I am working on a few. If you dont know you better ax some-body.
puts on IOC are working rather well.. are they not? MCP is up rather nicely.. is it not? NUCH was taken over rather conveniently, was it not? At the very least its all rather interesting… Look out bitches I will set your butt checks on wire with me pee. Thats what an STD will do to ya.
regards
chuck
Still fighting the tape and kicking against the pricks? You must be joking.
If you are not, I respect your principals (sic).
Dear Chuck,
No doubt you have nailed some great winners. Keep up the good work.
Look forward to seeing some more picks from you.
Sincerely,
Bullish
The Market still has some room to run, despite risk of a shallow pullback.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=%24BPNYA,P
Looking for a reading over 70%, then will start unloading the laggards into hedges in my trading account.
Holding fast to the winners and refusing to get shaken out ,unless we get a correction of more than 10%.
Sure it can go higher to 70 AND above, (could go to 84 again) but it does not need, the last time before it rolled over in 2008 it was “only” at 52 (53-54), according to your chart, now it stands around 61.
I was referring to the SPX not the NYA.
You shall I see my shit kicking moves moves shortly. (say the fast three times in a row)
regards
chuck
The last time The Fly made this promise, we were at Dow 13500 and he was saying he wouldn’t swear until we went below 11,000. Everyone was saying we’d never make it, especially when we bounced off 11,300 a few times. But The Fly won. If he gives up swearing, he’s right again. Time to short.
Right idea, but wrong time frame. The most recent no-cursing pledge was made last Fall when the market was attempting to break 10,500 on the upside. I believe the day before the “Dubai Crisis” we got 10,470 or something close like that. Fly called it close enough and started cursing again. Market very soon after blew right through 10,500… AND MORE.
Irony of ironies that here we are almost a year later and a new no-swearing pledge is made with a spread between targets of just 500 points.
Here is the post calling off the pledge and going full out gangsta on the market. These type posts are my favorites on IBC.
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2009/11/27/going-rogue/
hmm, will 10250 be ‘close enuf’?
the market can remain irrational
longer than the FLY can remain SOLVENT
double down to bankruptcy FLY
OR THIS>>>>>
“there is only one side to the stock market
not thebull side or the bear side,
but the right side”
as johnny cochran would say
if you are short
you must abort
wake up FLY
The day will come and they will all envy the VXX!
Here come the bearish calls just in time for October as always. The beauty about the “internets”, as Fly likes to call it, is that it enables the bearish bloggers and stock commentators to be heard, whereas 15 years ago they were left to back alleys and arcane newsletters. But now bearish stock market bloggers are everywhere…in the past their viewpoints and concerns would never have been heard by the masses.
This also means we could have the biggest contra-call rally of all time. I’m sure we’ll hit 10,000 again, but we may hit 12,000 or 24,000 first!
WTF?
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) — China plans to buy Greek bonds to support Greece’s shipping industry and strengthen relations with the European Union, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said following a meeting with Prime Minister George Papandreou in Athens today.
“China has already bought and holds its Greek bonds,” Wen said in joint comments with Papandreou today, which were carried live on state-run ET-1 television. “It commits, very positively, to buy new bonds to be issued by Greece.”
FLASH: China buys Greece.
FLASH: China buys Portugal.
FLASH China buys Ireland. Guiness production moved to Shandong province.
Faith and begorrrrrrrrahhhhhhh….
In the name of all that is holy, is it possible we shall all be visited in the dead of night by the evil one – the one who sprinkles lead flakes in our pints – the dreaded leprechaun of Shandong !?
Markets follow the path of maximum frustration.
Markets follow the path of maximum frustration
The weekly SPX put in a nice DOJI …….. something will happen it always does…. the charts and the FLY foretell the future.. I just wish I had pinch of his conviction….
If you think about the political trade.. the Repubs would rather have a market tank going into November than a big rally… What side of the fence do you think the Wall street and big business is on anyway? The stars are aligning ….
Gonzo, thought provoking. Here is another angle to the story that doesn’t necessarily negate what you are saying – The POMO, the money printing is all done by Fed. Empirically speaking, the Fed has typically been more aligned with the reigning party in all past elections.
Market is a function of supply and demand of stock prices. If demand can be maintained by Fed and Treasury, no matter what the institutions want to do, they have to respect the underlying price discovery mechanism.
Having said all of that, lets assume that what you are saying is also true. If so, then we have all the elements of a choppy market going into the election with a tug of far between Fed, Treasury and Institutional money. My guess is it won’t happen though as the institutions will ultimately want to make the money and play along with whatever trend the Fed and Treasury want to establish.
Fly’s conviction is derived solely from his egregious position in TZA.
Something may happen or maybe something won’t,
but Fly foretelling the future?
Come on, he’s been in TZA for weeks waiting for a reversal.
Why don’t you follow VCUtrader on stocktwits, a member here, who,
like many traders, is NOT shorting the market, sitting in cash and
making money on stocks that are setting up for decent runs.
No I do not follow any ones trades… I am all cash but did not make much off the rally either.
Here is and interesting quote off of Bloomberg regarding QE2
“Investors are buying into the strategy,” said Kos, who noted that prospects for further quantitative easing have depreciated the dollar without a rise in Treasury yields that foreign investors typically demand to compensate for currency risk. “You worry that at some point they don’t. A loss of credibility in central banking is really difficult to recover from.”
Note the key word prospects… this may or may not come to pass.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-02/fed-debates-easing-tools-as-dudley-says-further-steps-warranted.html
My style is not for everyone. I have the patience of an elephant.
Oh, by the way, fuck everyone on this thread.
Anyone worried that the fed feels they need qe2? I mean, really, you fuckers have your heads up your asses. Qe2 means qe1 failed.
Are we at 10,000 already…I thought the market was closed on Saturday?
I can help you in your transition to a total military police state.
Familiarize yourself with this manual published by homeland security to categorize U.S. citizens into appropriate Domestic classifications.
http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/lexicon.pdf
Most major police departments have bankrupt pensions, and huge personnel shortfalls. In fact, most major cities count their janitors and desk workers in their official police manpower numbers. That is a fact that was exposed during Katrina. Most of the missing Officers were found to be ghost payrollers, administrative, or window washers. Whatever your local department claims to have in its numbers, subtract about 30%.
I’ve assigned the bearded clam to address that.
But now that JPM and BAC are slowing down their foreclosure ops, police can spend less time serving notices and more time doing silly stuff like police work.
It’s a temporary reprieve until all the smaller banks are swallowed up, then the action will begin again.
Imagine my surpirse to find that people who believe in the Constitution “Constitutionalists” are a form of terrorism. Bizzaire! And single issue folks. My issue is budget for space for example. Why should homeland security care?
I swear on your korans, that was not me using the devils language.
lol
I think you need to put 1000 shares of nflx in a jar for every use of the devils language.
Neighbor Fly. Mrs. Fly called Mrs. Steve and complained that you haven’t seemed the same the last 4 to 5 weeks. No swearing at the NY Mets, no looking around the house for the blue radio, and actually saying good morning when you saw the evil neighbor yesterday (the other neighbor).
Let me know if I can help. I can give you some money from my weekly unemployment check or sell some of my stock investments. As you know I went long AEM,NFLX,PCLN,and AAPL on September 1 so I did okay. Just let me know neighbor.
I’ve been chart chomping all afternoon while watching college ball. From my laborious studies of the geometric patterns there appears to be a massive QEII pattern on all three of the major indices. Of course, as any professional technician knows, the target for such a pattern is 1 Gazillion. That’s right, the charts are targeting SPY, DIA and QQQ 1 gazillion. Position accordingly.
My prediction for October
Peter Schiff (“Captain spray-on-tan”) will get trapped in a massive dollar shorts squeeze,
Just like he was trapped shorting it for 6 months straight, early last year.
Meant to say early THIS year.
On the subject of other CNBC superstars, Ive always wanted to see a fistfight between Donald Luskin and Joe Battipaglia.
It would settle an age old scientific debate: Could a Frankenstein monster beat a Neanderthal in a boxing match?
my prediction for october; you will discover you aren’t supposed to eat toilet cakes.
I will reveal to you the fate of the dollar. This will give you a measure of it’s coming devaluation so you may accept your fate sooner.
http://www.budgetball.org/images/Usdebtaspercentageofgdp.JPG
Sez who? Some teabagger? Just slap a 110% tax on all income above $250K
and slash military spending by 70% and you will have budget SURPLUSES
as far as the eye can see.
And what do they do with any of your theoretical surpluses they might achieve in such an unlikely scenario? Give it back to the people?
My, my, my.
Pay off the debt, dismiss the Federal reserve, and have a kick-ass space prorgram.
The stock market rally is on shaky ground and severely overextended. It is being propelled by a combination of momentum-oriented trading strategies and dubious fundamental assumptions. The traders have no real fundamental beliefs and will, as usual, head for the exits as soon as the trend begins to waver. Fundamental bulls believe that the economic recovery is sustainable, and that if it falters the Fed will step in with another round of quantitative easing (QE2). Under this line of reasoning another dip in the economy is highly unlikely, thereby justifying soaring earnings forecasts for 2011, which makes current market levels look not only reasonable, but cheap. In addition they see the prospective Republican gains in the upcoming election as being bullish for stocks. In their opinion the “bad news” is already discounted in the market, a seemingly strange case to make when the majority seem so bullish
Yes, but it’s a cut/paste from another site. Zerohedge, MarketTicker… can’t remember.
I would say it is in poor taste to steal, but hell this is the internet – I guess anything goes.
Nice Post!
Without giving proper credit to the original source, you ARE saying you wrote the article…dipshit!
Cut and paste with no source. You’re one of the reasons decent journalism is dying.
He doesn’t know what an avatar is!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unl0qo4f8Xo
Really great post!
Yes, but once again it’s a cut/paste from another site. Bloomberg or Mad TV… can’t remember.
I would say it is in poor taste to steal, but hell this is the internet – I guess anything goes.
lol- what the hell, now I have an imposter.
panamaorange–
you have a short mind. that is, you critique peter schiff for losing in the dollar rallies of the last 2 years, but don’t credit him for being long gold/foreign equities (avoiding the dollar) over the last decade. lrn2insult
If anyone wants to read the entire article referenced above it’s by Comstock partners: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/09/market-is-out-on-a-limb.html
FWIW (admittedly not much I know) I should have posted this link instead: http://www.comstockfunds.com
Rallies come and go. if u failed too catch this time try better next time.