iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,854 Blog Posts

The End is Near

You are witnessing a blow off top in precious metals today and some serious yen action, that can only be described as “detrimental” to Japanese exporters. I am confident in my opinion that we are in the last days, if not hours, of this current uptrend. Having said that, I blew out of my largest long position, BAC and GMCR, raising my cash position to about 50%.

With the cash, I will take 5% and add to my underwater VXX position. Remember, it’s a play on the market, not an individual name. There are limits to momentum and traditional correlations can only be ignored for so long. Again, you cannot have a stock market rally with Yen and long bonds going through the roof. We are now up 10 of 11 days on the S&P, making this another mind-boggling rally, that feels mechanical in nature.

Volume is very light; but I am not a big believer in volume, unless the move is big. For the most part, we’ve been stair stepping higher, as short sellers wait in the balance for a chink the the proverbial armor. It is my belief, that chink will come in the form of a fucked up Japan (racist pun NOT intended).

As for me, I do have one bullet left, with regards to a TZA average down. I will not be executing that order today. I much prefer to see how the market will open tomorrow. As for VXX, I will intentionally miss out on the initial move, in order to place my last average down with precision.

Soon.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9v_GX56Qes 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

115 comments

  1. No One

    Loaded FAZ

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  2. RC

    is that iBC’s new mascot on the front page pic?

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  3. Jay_Biddy_Trader

    VXX contango sucks!

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  4. down

    I Agree

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  5. The_Real_Hmmm

    Check out HANS right here. They may be getting a bid from KO or BUD. BUD has tons of cash and is looking to make an acquisition. HANS has been growing well since 2005 and eps are kicking ass.

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    • alphadawgg

      If you’re gonna suggest HANS, you might as well throw in BWLD and CMG, thus making it an old-school Fly “full meal deal”.

      Not to be nostalgic, but….. MVIS anyone?

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  6. Baron von Braveflaps
    Baron von Braveflaps

    Indeud.

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  7. stocksrider

    New Post in King of PG land. Presenting the opposite of Black Swan: http://ibankcoin.com/king_of_the_pg/2010/09/14/black-swan-meet-mr-unicorn/

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  8. Weezy

    Dow 36K The bullish Falling Axe Pattern holding like a charm on the DJIA. We are gooing to have a melt up that has never been witnessed before.

    FIG

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  9. mrkcbill

    Fly you OK…you rubbing on EYE BLACK drinking Monster’s?
    This market feels like Sammy’s Romanian…For God’s sake tell us your gonna grill up some Organic Sword Fish tonight. Tell us a funny story…like The Important Matters of CH. Post a picture of your lawn renovation…see what kind of landscaping you have.
    What was your AMEX bill last month–player? Was it full and Robust?

    Off to the Gym to do 100 Jumping Jacks….25 push ups and 25 calf raises.. Am I missing anything?

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  10. WTF

    Acquiring coin in the market is like climbing a mountain–each careful step gets you slowly only a bit higher. One incorrect move, and, voilà, you lose previous gains in mere seconds à la Flash Crash. Luckily we, amateurs, can always count on handy hand of a daring mountaineer Mr. Fly.

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    • alphadawgg

      wtf,

      Don’t forget to rope up on that climb to avoid the flash crash.

      The “ViXXens in the FAZmobile” are looking pretty hot right now.

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      • Mr. Cain Thaler

        Interesting fact: vixen (phonetically pronounced) in German apparently is a handjob. First time I met Mademoiselle Thaler’s extended family I put them in a bit of a shock…

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        • Teahouse On The Tracks
          Teahouse On The Tracks

          as in …. Who has two thumbs and likes to masturbate alot?

          Mr Thaler: Pointing thumbs at himself, “This Guy!’

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          • Mr. Cain Thaler

            (laughter) good image.

            As in I called her a vixen at dinner and their younger children all started giggling.

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          • Teahouse On The Tracks
            Teahouse On The Tracks

            Maybe they knew something … hahaha

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  11. Russian Saylor

    …you cannot have a stock market rally with… long bonds going through the roof…
    of course you can… open your eyes,princess… lmao…
    and yen i will live to Japan…. their exports = their problem..

    PS. I could tell you not to average down on VXX… but it’s your money…
    we still have 3 more days of bullmarket…. oops actually 4… mondays always green.

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  12. Bullish

    Perhaps it was divine intervention… maybe it was the Fly’s warnings… or it could just be my memories of Sept 15 2008 but I prefer to watch tomorrow’s market from the comfort of large amounts of cash.

    Fly, are you expecting a prolonged downturn at this point or just a minor haricut?

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  13. Treepart

    What exactly are we listening to here? I opened the music link and my cleaning lady started break dancing in my kitchen.

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  14. Consuming Mass Quantities
    Consuming Mass Quantities

    Le Fly has always encouraged his minion of distinguished gentlemen to build their very own time machines. I have taken his challenge to heart and done just that. I have just returned from tomorrow where the stock market has finished the day lower. How much you ask? Enough to make getting short today well worth it.

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  15. ruggyup

    Thank you Saint Fly for posting the picture of my Minerva, she is comfortable in your pic but, I see the wings ready to spread which means, of course, a double confirmation of your forecast. potere è meglio di fottere.

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  16. xxxHuggieBearxxx

    i made a killing today short and 25% in TLT. Shorted 5 ES at 3:30 and those are up big too.

    Trying to decide whether to hold them in anticipation of a selloff but methinks I am too short right now. Or at least too leveraged.

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  17. arch

    taking all profits here at this point in time at this defining moment …out of FAS @ 22.08…you ticktards really piss me off sometimes… no more FAS info for you..go play your “C ” thats where you belong…. your to fuckn dumb to be playing with a 3x etf

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    • Bullish

      LOL – just curious who you’re cursing at???

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      • arch

        the fuckn ticktards who cleared out of fas…they took a nice rally and shit it away ….they really do piss me off ..better off not telling them anything

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      • needle dick the bug fucker
        needle dick the bug fucker

        Cursing at himself…

        Fly I love the OWL!!

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  18. Spooky

    Fly,

    I’m guessing you’re call here that PMs had a blow-off top is based on the QE or no QE talk going around? Am I on the right track?

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    • JakeGint

      Frankly, it s a mixture of whole hearted delusion and sour grapes.

      I am sending the Silver Surfer out tonight to assassinate his ass.

      ___________

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      • Spooky

        Jakey,
        I’m seeing a break-out in silver and the dollar down. Damn, I went with SLV instead of a SLW a few weeks back and am regretting it. Net Euro longs against the dollar are at record levels. But I’m not expert enough to call which way the market breaks. Frankly, with correlations not working and the Yen where it is, I’m a bit worried for the whole market. But who the f– knows?!

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      • goldbugvariations

        Sour grapes, indeed.

        This is the 13th top in gold the honourable Monsieur Le Fly, Esq. has called so far.

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  19. Spooky

    “your” not “you’re” What happened to the edit function?

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  20. Mr. President

    I love it when The Fly and Cramer argue on Twitter. #LOL

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  21. Magistrate Fly

    And I sold the last of my fad stock gmcr today at all time high

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  22. StocksRider

    Fly, was Cramer really tweeting you during lightning round? I always thought the lightning round was telecasted live.

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    • Teahouse On The Tracks
      Teahouse On The Tracks

      looked like he reponded during commercial breaks … Fly must have struck a chord.

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  23. Teahouse On The Tracks
    Teahouse On The Tracks

    OEW Recap:

    “Equity markets were quiet overnight, the US opened soft, but did manage to make a new rally high at SPX 1127. Now the market is again approaching multi-month overhead resistance at the lower end of the OEW 1136 pivot range. Will the market: top and head down again, fail to break through resistance now but do so later, or just gap up right on by like it has with the three lower pivots? Technicals suggest the market is overbought short term and on a daily basis as well. This rally has carried the SPX from 1040 to nearly 1130 in just nine trading days, about 10 points a day, with only a single 14 point pullback along the way. Our currently important two sectors: the SOX has turned positive short term, but now the KBE is weakening a bit. Still see these two sectors as key, along with the two leaders AAPL and GS, for any additional immediate and medium term upside progress. In other markets Gold hit an all time new high today. Also, keep in mind Ops-ex on thursday/friday and the FOMC early next week. ”

    Posting link to charts on Platinum over at Jake’s Place for those interested …

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  24. Bullish

    $2350 a month to rent a one bedroom apt in NYC? (per CNBC) That’s outrageous.

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    • StocksRider

      That could be really reasonable depending on the neighborhood.

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    • HuggieBear

      my one bedroom in manhattan in 2001 cost $3000 month….my studio post-911 in tribeca cost 2750.

      I tried to find cheaper, and it can be done, but not much cheaper, and the tradeoffs are aweful. e.g. 20 minute walk to the subway might shave off a couple hundred bucks.

      Anyway, the costs are ludicrous but now having lived out of the city and having to add on two cars, getting a crappy construction big ass house, and having a complete fucking VOID of anything to do or eat, its worth it. And the premium isnt as much as it seems due to the lack of need for cars.

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      • No. 1

        And after ten years of that, you’ve only spent $360,000.

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        • alphadawgg

          That amount of money will buy 2,000 acres of wind swept sage brush country, a double-wide trailer and a view of the Wind River Range in Wyoming. The antelope and mule deer are free—along with the minerals rights to the underground resources.

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  25. Bullish

    Its no wonder why there’s so many homeless.

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  26. No One

    If S&P move up fails right here we are going down to 900

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  27. FIG

    For those of you that do not believe a flash crash can happen again, we have NUE. http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/09/14/nucors-single-stock-flash-crash/

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  28. chuck bennett

    I have a penthouse on the upperwest side. Two bedrooms, two full baths, two floors, with a roof deck. I garden on that bitch. platned tomatos, basil, green beans, all from seeds. flowers, a tree and my famous BBQs also great times.

    Know how much I paid for that? haha. I pay shit mother F er, thats what I’m trying to tell you boy. (jerky boyz)

    I pay less then 2800, however the owner of the building is a client. Bankcoining coin is what I do, so go figure.

    True, big ass houses and living far away from humans is not all that fun.

    regards

    chuck

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  29. bigdog

    looks like invervention in the Yen tonight…

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    • panamaorange

      They’ve been preparing for this moment for months

      http://www.wtfjapanseriously.com/2010/06/escaped-bear-drill-at-japanese-zoo.html

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    • alphadawgg

      Yeah, so the BOJ can end up like the SNB and lose billions as well as face? Not likely to be sustained.

      For intervention to be effective, the Japanese PM and MOF will have to convince, the EMU, China, US, etc. to agree to a coordinated effort to weak the Yen.

      Question: Why would they want to do that when economies are weak and every country in the world wants a weaker currency to help their export business?

      Japanese machine orders from outside Japan were up 8.8% last month, and they need a weaker Yen? That’s a hard sell to the finance ministers and central bankers of the world.

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  30. Tear In My Beer

    I got you you all beat my treehouse cost me 0 month been banking those payments for a long time. Whatch below dropping banana peel.

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  31. YaBollox

    The infamous Spotted Owl. Death to Weyerhauser!

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  32. Le Fly

    Japanese intervene!

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    • FIG

      Yes, BoJ is intervening, dollar is up big overnight, spx futures continue to stay up.

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      • franky

        yea – what is up with that?

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        • Spyder_Crusher

          strong dollar means america is the best house in a bad hood, so stocks are a buy.

          actually, I’m being facetious, but I wouldn’t spend time trying to rationalizing shit like this. Correlation could stay or fail or increase or decrease at any time.

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    • alphadawgg

      Time to add that final tranche of VXX.

      Is TarZAn also riding the FAZmobile?

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    • alphadawgg

      Heh. The Swiss National Bank tried to intervene on the Swissie, buying Euro from 1.57 down to 1.20 before calling it quits after massive losses of coin and face.

      Japan, should they be foolish enough to act alone, will meet the same fate.

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  33. No One

    hmmmmmmm.
    That’s a change…..

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  34. chuck bennett

    I grow my own food cuz I can.

    Same reason I still pick up college girls.

    regards

    chuck

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  35. J

    Let’s see what happens here with the intervention. Gunna be interesting. My bet is they walk away and let go down some more. It then tests their total patience and they come in , in size.

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  36. MOOBER

    Somebody teach me something… Yen down (intervention), dollar up, equities down. No?

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    • J

      Moober

      The thinking is that as the Yen weakens it will provide respite to the Japanese economy and will also cause them to move money offshore.

      A weaker yen is thought of as good for stocks.

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  37. No One

    Depends on what the US side does
    We’ll see tomorrow.

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  38. needle dick the bug fucker
    needle dick the bug fucker

    @The_Real_Hmmm says. For your TIE play..

    Airlines to address aircraft financing at OECD meeting

    The inequity in the ability of U.S. and foreign carriers to finance aircraft will be one of the topics this week at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development meeting in Paris. The group of 33 developed nations will discuss a multilateral agreement, which would level the playing field on aircraft financing standards, according to an article in TheStreet.com.

    The article points out that in 2009, Delta Air Lines (DL) financed three Boeing 777s at 8.11 percent interest, while Emirates Airlines (EK) bought three similar aircraft, paying 3.4 percent interest. EK can borrow at low cost from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, but airlines from the U.S. and major European countries are not eligible for the low-interest financing.

    The Air Transport Association (ATA) expressed worries that the situation may get worse.

    “We are particularly concerned that the damage to U.S. airlines caused by such export credits may be worsened by the outcome of the current negotiations,” said Jim May, CEO of the Air Transport Association, in a recent letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

    Ya what about that Obama

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  39. Goldie

    If you were short usd/jpy tonight you are now homeless.

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    • needle dick the bug fucker
      needle dick the bug fucker

      Thats some move.. Lets remind ourself’s the markets are not rigged.

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      • needle dick the bug fucker
        needle dick the bug fucker

        Looks like the DOW futures rally and Dollar rally against the yen are working in lock step.

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