Using The PPT new seasonality tools, I scanned for names that have flawless records in the month of September. Behold are the results of such a masterful screen, all thanks and praise to the Godly folks at iBC.
| No. | Ticker | Seasonality – Average Monthly Return | Seasonality – % Months DOWN |  Seasonality – % Months UP |
Seasonality – Month | Seasonality – # Months DOWN | Seasonality – # Months UP |
| 1 | PFWD (acquired) | 13.38 | 0.00 | 100.00 | September | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| 2 | MNKD | 17.41 | 0.00 | 100.00 | September | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| 3 | LF | 7.67 | 0.00 | 100.00 | September | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| 4 | GHL | 11.83 | 0.00 | 100.00 | September | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| 5 | FTWR | 18.44 | 0.00 | 100.00 | September | 0.00 | 6.00 |
Thanks
past performance is not indicative of future results. But that’s the list. When you reduce standards to 90%, it gets much bigger. It’s also worth noting, September is the worst month for stock, based on historical data.
Weak bro, weak.
your mother. Data is data. It cannot be changed for your happiness.
Fly, if Sept. is it historically weak, maybe it makes sense to find stocks which tend to perform worst this month? Kind of “negative seasonality screen”.
I mean “Seasonality – % Months DOWN” 100% in Sept.
LF – Leapfrog Enterprises. They are the guys who make those little computers for young kids. I love those things. LOL
Wtf
I will post that later. I am playing chess here not blackjack
Backgammon, to be precise.
Yahtzee, actually.
______
i’d rather eat pussy,no ribs,no pussy,no ribs, aww fuck i’ll do both,with cheeze wiz
on paper this seems like a good idea, but can it be back tested?
surely, after a certain number of up Septembers, a negative September will become more probable
sort of like breaking the streak.
What would Woodshedder do ?
Some a probably chance and some legitimate. Best strategy for a certain edge would be to go long all of them in equal portions.
Hedged, of course. Because the world is falling apart.
I got ZeroHedged this weekend and read a most depressing and compelling article.
Croc
You would be surprised how often trends repeat
I don’t believe the “world is falling apart story”
Fly, have you looked at sugar?
fuck sugar. when will mon do its gm magic to make a splenda plant?
That’s the next thing they’ve got on the list after they’ve completed this “agri-bacon” thing they’ve been working on.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-not-deflation-mr-bernanke-2010-08-22?pagenumber=2
Theory claims Inflation is already apparent while we still fight deflation!
> A large economy like the U.S.’s is always assumed to resemble a closed economy, while a small trade-oriented economy like Singapore’s is close to a completely open economy.
Multinational-led globalization has made large economies behave like small, open economies. Demand is still local, but supply is global.
When the Fed or the European Central Bank tries to stimulate, they are actually stimulating the global economy as a whole. Water, no matter where it comes from, flows downwards. Stimulus, similarly, flows to where costs are low and banking systems are healthy. If you believe this logic, the actions of the Fed and the ECB fuel inflation and asset bubbles in emerging economies rather than stimulate growth at home.
The big difference from the 1990s [S&L Crisis] is the employment response to the stimulus in the developed economies. Despite trillions of dollars in stimulus and a sharp one-year rebound in the global economy from the middle of 2009, the developed economies have virtually seen no employment growth. The consequences of the financial crisis have eaten away quite a big chunk of the stimulus.
It is, however, not the full explanation. We are seeing overheating in emerging economies. The stimulus is just working somewhere else.
For the stimulus to work in developed economies, it needs to inflate costs in emerging economies so much that the multinationals want to add additional capacity in the developed economies. That is unlikely. The average wage in developed economies is about 10 times the average level in emerging economies. And there are five people in emerging economies for each one in developed economies. The math just wouldn’t work out for this approach.
The stimulus policy is more likely to end with inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The massive growth in the money supply in the U.S. and other developed economies is not causing inflation for three special reasons: First, the financial crisis has crippled their banking system. Before it is fully repaired, it will slow down money velocity, equivalent to a reduction in money supply in the short term. Second, weak demand is forcing suppliers to refrain from raising prices. Third, as discussed before, multinational companies are investing in emerging economies.
The first two factors are temporary. When the two factors are removed, many argue that the central banks will have time to withdraw money before inflation happens. This is a bold assumption. The amount of money that has been injected into the global economy is so massive that removing it would be extremely hard. The odds are that the central banks won’t be able to. Before the first two factors are removed, inflation still can happen via the emerging economies. The price of oil is above $80 per barrel, even though the global economy and the demand for oil are depressed.
Financial capital is turbo-charging the oil price, both due to speculation and inflation hedging. Speculators are trying to anticipate the producers’ willingness to supply and the demand from inflation hedges. Such motivations don’t necessarily cause bubbles. But, when there are too many speculators, the price loses its normal signaling functions and just reflects speculative demand. When interest rates are near zero, speculators mushroom. If the Fed does pursue “QE 2,” oil prices are very likely to rise above $100 again.
Many analysts think that gold is in a bubble now. Quite a lot of money has been pulled out of gold lately. I think that the gold price just reflects how loose the monetary environment is now. If the Fed does a “QE 2,” gold prices could rise above $1,500 per ounce quickly and may move much higher afterwards.
When the Fed cut interest rates in the summer of 2007, in response to the first signs of the sub-prime crisis, the commodity index (‘CRB’) surged 50% in the following 10 months. It then collapsed by 60% when Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapsed. It has recovered by over 30% from the bottom.
The recent history shows how volatile commodity prices can be. If the Fed does pursue “QE 2,” the CRB index will surely surge. And, it won’t collapse like last time. There is so much more money in the world now. Some of it should turn into inflation through commodities. The value of commodities is about 1/10th of the global GDP. It is a powerful force in turning money supply into inflation.
Labor costs in the emerging economies are rising due to their overheating. Global trade is about one-fifth of the global GDP in value. One often hears that labor costs are only 1/10th of the cost at most factories. But, the components that often account for over half of the cost are made by labor in other factories. The infrastructure and logistics services have significant labor costs too. The total labor content for export goods is probably over one-third in emerging economies. When labor costs rise at 20%-30% per year, it becomes a serious source of inflation.
The case for deflation is based on Japan’s experience. It has been suffering from deflation on and off for the past two decades. A strong yen has made deflation possible. The dollar-yen value has declined from ¥140 to ¥85. Japan’s service price has not declined over the past two decades. Its deflation is due to the tradable sector. Japan’s rising imports of food and manufacturing products from China have been the main factor for the deflation.
If the yen had depreciated, it could have offset the decline. A strong yen has amplified this deflationary force. But, this is not really bad deflation. When imports become cheaper, it should be good news for living standards. I think that the understanding of Japan’s deflation needs reconsideration.
In the case of the U.S., its bubble deflates after the manufacturing price has declined to China’s cost level. China is entering a decade of wage inflation. China’s export prices are likely to rise. Hence, the U.S. won’t experience what Japan has. Also, the dollar is weak because the U.S. runs a large current-account deficit. The dollar isn’t likely to be a source of deflation. The temporary deflation due to suppliers cutting costs at the expense of profit margins will not last. <
One could make the argument that Infrastructure Spending would keep the stimulus domestic other than imported materials and be more effective than the financial stimulus that QE2 or the current Stealthy Stimulus will provide.
Conclusion still points to resource inflation in any event …. buy the dips.