Gold is no longer a reliable tell for inflation expectations. Recent dollar weakness can only be attributed to a record short squeeze event in the euro. What’s important to monitor is treasuries. Look at the TLT and tell me why it was diverging from the dollar.
Answer: anomaly.
The relationship between treasury strength and dollar strength cannot be denied. Their fates are intertwined. Just to throw it out there, sovereign CDS spreads for Venezuela, Argentina, Portugal and Ireland have been blowing the fuck out. Keep that in mind, when aimlessly allocating money for yourself or clients. The truth of the matter is: this is a period in time when you will accomplish more by doing less. Go on vacation and toss the ball around with your bratty kids. Instead of rolling into this market in a tank, pick up a knife and quietly kill people when no one is paying attention.
This is great advice.
All in all, today would have been an uneventful day for me, if it wasn’t for the parabolic move in FTK. By the way, that fucker is not done going higher. Nevertheless, I remain steadfast in my belief that we will enjoy a relief rally soon, as dictated by the articles of law, inside of the handbook of sublime harmony of mathematical precision (S.H.O.M.P). Because of these beliefs, “The Fly” has allocated his dearest resources (cash) towards achieving market excellence, via bulltarded long positions. However, I remain hedged with 25% of my book saddled in a rather delightful and wondrous VXX position, with an additional 25% in cash.
In short, tread, but do so very carefully.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoiblfZAYpA 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Going special forces instead of marine on the front lines.
splendid
Fly reminds me of Rush Limbaugh. Loud and obnoxious but sometimes right.
You remind me of an idiot.
The Bear aka Keith Olberman?
x 2
I just knew that Howard was hanging around the PPT. talking up his CBOU short.
I am scared.
I will be in almost all cash by end of day. Prob will hold 1000 TNA shares for kicks.
plus my 25% TLT, which i’ve made egregious gains in, and which i’ve also now hedged.
GTFO
F U
PBUH
_____
Word on the street seems to be Israel has a window until Aug 21 to hit Iran’s new reactor.
So, we either sail back to dow 11k , or Dow 5k, based on what happens between now and that date.
Word of advice, 25 LBS bags of enriched rice are quite cheap at costco right now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bSiBCQC-0M&feature=related
Source please.
Word on what street?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/14/world/europe/14bushehr.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
and here I thought they have time to attack till december.
Thanks for the link. Does Obama have the Cojones to support that?
Iran will get the bomb. It’s just a matter of time. We have no balls to stop them. Israel can’t do it without us. The Iranian people have a sense of pride about their nuclear program. They might hate the regime in power, but they take pride in their country’s scientific achievement.
Which street do you live on? Do all the residents there think Israel will go it alone? And if they do, do they really think it will happen before the November elections, let alone the Dec-Mar period??
Let alone August 21…?
The old “October Surprise” trick worked nicely for Reagan. Why wouldn’t Obama use it. Russia’s acceleration of the timeline might just make him use it sooner.
http://www.examiner.com/progressive-in-philadelphia/reagan-s-october-surprise-the-beginning-of-america-s-corporate-takeover
The Lobby’s first concern right now is keeping out any new congressional and senatorial candidates that aren’t playing ball with them. Attacking Iran before the elections probably wouldn’t help them in this effort.
This isn’t about whether Obama has balls or not; he’s a puppet. Iran along with Turkey and Brazil have tried to come to a peaceful resolution but the powers that be clearly are not interested.
If you look at the reality of the situation and not political speculation, you will see that there are around a hundred US war ships in the area and Saudia Arabia is now allowing Israeli aircraft the use of their airstrips. You don’t concentrate that much military force in one region for nothing. That being said, it’s also not economically or strategically feasible to keep that size of a force on vacation there.
It is also wise to look at a time frame of more than one week and consider past US actions in Iran, most importantly the CIA toppling an ally and installing the current “enemy” in power back in the 70s. It stinks of similar tactics used on one of Iran’s next door neighbors.
Stop smoking so much cheech, Cheech.
The CIA did topple a ruler in Iran, but he was a commie simp, not a mullah.
___________
Aside: Waiting for Troll-dy, above, to pull out Protocols of the Elders of Zion for his next act.
__________
And it was the early 50’s, not the seventies.
____
Traitor!
Yeah, why don’t you continue on about the Jooos, there, Himmler?
You’re peak under the hood was might interesting…
Maybe you’ve got a Final Solution for us, courtesy of the Kennedy School of Gov’t?
________
Acknowledging the existence of the Israeli lobby makes one Himmler? You are a joke …your arguments so weak that you should be drummed out of the thought police.
I’m a joke? You’ve got some bloody nerve, brown shirt.
You’re talking about “the Lobby” (ie, some shadowy Jewish Conspiracy) ordering U.S. foreign policy?
In your mind, do they own all the bank as well?
Why should I now take as anything more a typical celler-bound neo-Nazi wannabe sitting in front of his Commodore 64 and swatting it to Wagnerian Opera outtakes?
Certainly none of your posts here have ever added one millicent of value on an intellectual or financial level.
Back to Stromfront with you, Troll, we’ve seen enough.
_________
Jake, the commodore 64 comment is pure hate speech.
Jimmie Carter fixed that by re-instating the Ayatollah in the late 70’s.
The US and Britain overthrew the democratically elected PM Mossadegh – hence my ally reference – and helped to install and maintain our Muslim “enemies” in Iran. The 70s reference was meant to be 50s-70s – I inadvertently deleted it.
How did they instill the Muslim enemies?
The US loving playboy Shah was about as close to the Ayatolla as Liberace was to Pat Robertson.
The Revolution bounced his ass, and if anything it was backed by the Soviets, not us.
_________
Through their incompetence in managing the Shah and their subsequent relations with post-revolution Iran.
I do agree that Carter looked away as the Shah was deposed.
However, I don’t know how you manage “relations” with regimes that are backing global terrorism.
Surely you have to have someone acting in good faith on the other side. Would you think that’s possible in the case of Kim Jong Il? Then why would you think it possible with the Mullahs?
Sometimes the old ways are the best ways.
________
How do you manage global terrorists? That’s a great question and unfortunately, I have no idea- especially since all of the power players involved in our conversation exert it on a continuous basis.
As far as someone acting in good faith, see Fly’s post below – no government acts in good faith.
You are correct, our interventions (as in Iran) often end-up backfiring and helping even more odious and hostile people come to power.
Separately, the way to fight terrorist is to fight terrorists. We need people to educate themselves as to who these people are. Only then will our leaders not be able to manipulate chicken-hawks who are happy to send other-people’s sons to kill innocent brown people while completely missing the target.
..and if you want to “drain the swamp” and fight the reasons that mid-eastern politicians and wannabes are able to get young men to kill themselves while killing us, then you have to have people educate themselves as to why hating America wins points among these people. (Hint: it is not because “they hate our freedom.”)
Lastly, it is certain that the CIA has had many successful interventions that we have never heard about. When the locals are being shit on and we can quietly find and fund alliances with indigenous people, it is possible to change bad local leadership a local face – the local face being critical to success. The CIA was making good progress on exactly this in Afghanistan after 9/11, but we went for the big splash instead and booted the CIA out. It may have satisfied the Gint’s Napoleon complex, but did not accomplish the mission.
Not gonna happen.
Today has been a SNORE! I do not own any stocks up 20% on the day unlike some others.
I should be at home playing ball with the kids…
Black cats, Ladders, Friday 13th, Black crosses, Hindenburg all friking hogwash.
People are still going to work today and people are still shopping. Today is just another day.
Monday the mutual funds comes back in like they always do.
The more the market dip today the more I buy.
Come on bring AAPL down to 245. I;ll buy it all.
Fundamentals rules over fear.
Watch those weekly technical charts. Daily buy signals get overshadowed by broad weekly sell signals.
Loving Santelli pawning Insana here.
Santelli is so dying to become a youtube sensation again. The 15 minutes are addictive once you get a taste of it.
Prolapsing his cornhole on live TV would do it. Easy as pie.
1100 now!
It’s hard to hold anything over the weekend for fear of fuckery. I envy Mr. Le Fly. Another inspirational video I’m sure would be appreciated.
very nice. well said.
Einstein’s theory of relativity applies also to the financial markets, in particular more so to exchange rates.
MF’ers
Time to raise cash.
They straight up stole from me today.
Will Mr Devil Dog be right?
He may…I don’t know. Hence why i am moving mostly into cash. I will reassess over the weekend.
Nice way of backing out of the “buy now” advice earlier.
Nice set up for a continued move down on Monday…fwiw.
Not impressed by mutual funds on monday?
Nymph, you’re not a permabear this soon into your trading career are you?
It usually takes decades to turn perma anything.
Since we met you, it seems you’ve been wanting this market to crash.
Do I have this correct?
Septimus…I have been just trying to put all the pieces together. I have been watching this bubble since April of 2009 build…..and I can’t wait to learn how it pops. I am reading Soros this weekend and am amused how he was traveling the same road in 1985…….No 1…lol, Mutual Fund Managers always drive me crazy cuz they never follow the market rules….
Nymph, interesting. So you were betting on a retest of the lows at some point in 2009? Totally understandable. Did you buy any stocks during the rally? Let’s say you’re correct and we get a big down move sometime soon. You would have waited at least 17 months for it. And we’re supposedly in a Bear Market right now. It’s like that Elliot Wave guy Mike Prechter who is only correct once every 20 years or so. Gotta play both sides in this market. And think positively for a change. Bears want the S&P 500 to go to 400, and less (Mad Max scenario). And they’d probably still think it’s expensive and want to short it more. If you want the market to go to zero, you may as well be a communist.
I was the first that I know of that even spotted the move up in Copper, I bought C, RTP in March, Netflix too…but sold way too early because I saw that the supply/demand in Shanghai Copper was all speculator driven and out of balance giving the world the sense of recovery by watching Dr.Copper…I thought the pros would see this…BIG lesson for me….In April 2009 I became obsessed watching this Copper Bubble on borrowed money build and build..plus I was learning F/X and sectors…2010/2011 will give me my retest, and probably lower…not worried about that…also I perfected my Fibo Analysis and increased my knowledge of the market….had a.lot to learn……
Taco
My position is chrystal clear. Do not sully me with retard comments
Do muslims have pig roasts?
We will see if they get nuke bombs.
Or inform the world that all religions are fucking scams.
You mean you don’t have an imaginary friend that loves you, but will throw you into a fiery pit of demons if you don’t do exactly what he says?
Demons are real. They don’t want you to believe in them — makes it much easier for them to feed off your negative energy. Believing all religions are a scam is also a religion. Pick your poison carefully.
So– not believing in something is proof that the something exists. yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Yes. Fire, fire, fire (beavis voice)
uh-huh-huh uh-huh-huh
Strong calls the past few months, Fly. Have a great weekend.
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/John–Bolton–Iran–Nuclear–israel/2010/08/13/id/367449
Apparently, They really do only have until Aug 21, according to our former UN Ambassador.
As much as I don’t want to believe this shit, there are too many credible sources saying the same thing right now.
These are trial balloons from the likes of Bolton. The war-mongers want to gauge our reaction …and if they’re smart, they’re gauging the reaction of our creditor countries as well (after-all, we’ve mortgaged our sovereignty.)
Anyway, we should all be concerned about a strike on an Iranian nuclear facility ….with Russian technicians to boot!
Since the Russians are helping Iran establish nuclear technology, it kind of makes me wonder what they dropped off in Venezuela.
An air strike on the reactor before the fuel is loaded is definitely within the realm of possibilities, but the Russians must not think it’s likely.
Could this be the domino that sends oil to $100 (or more)?
Monday, they await…
http://readtheprospectus.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/bears.jpg
” Instead of rolling into this market in a tank, pick up a knife and quietly kill people when no one is paying attention.”
LOL! My kind of strategy.
“This is great advice.”
Indeud.
Hey Fly, is there any way to disable stars on my Posts in PG? I understand I won’t stand a chance for KOPG, which is fine.
Ok, that is the last freaking time Im bringing up the mideast on this board. I had no idea it would stir up a giant political ___ __storm that would spam the comments section. I was just making the point that There is a POSSIBILITY of an event that could be linked to oil prices, between now and Aug 21.
On a pure technical basis,Bulls have 3 things in their favor right now.
1. TLT looks dangerously overbought. If it follows the lead of FXY,
that will force Money back into equities (when it dives).
2. There are giant Bullish “Reverse Head and shoulders” in most major
indexes, and sector etfs (Such as XLY).
3. SMH is forming a “Quintuple Bottom” Here. It is a leading edge
index, and it is bouncing off the same support for the fifth time–on
daily charts.
Good stuff, Panama.
a no events day for me is what it looks like…other than finding out im not banned
think i will sell off my FAS right now while listening to kudlow
I just can’t figure out what nymph is trading… The only part I can usually understand is the crash part. No offense Nymph just my observation. Let a few bull markets destroy you’re shorts and you will learn not to be a perma bear.
I myself am a perma optimist, but that doesn’t mean I’m afraid to hedge and hide in cash when the times are right.
There’s always value somewhere.
might have to bulk up on my nuclear arsenal via ADG on monday
maybe flex a little muscle
or maybe some AAR for end of days
correct that to AIR
or for those duds being launched into your dinning room maybe some BRSI
GTEC since im looking into the future
and of course i gotta roll in with a pimped out tank so OSK
do i dare mention BEAV ??
LOL – a man of many ideas
Bullish…I am not a Slope or Zero type…I am just learning how the market moves and why. It’s a learning process for me, bottomline, trend following is just not my personality….I am long SMN, FXP, AUY, DRR, VXX, CLF Oct Puts and a small biotech….I think I am finally understanding breadth enough to move in and out of these positions, I will know soon. I could sit and trade individual names which I did in 2008, but I really want to learn how the total market moves…PPT gave me a lot of the pieces, I am just adding to it.
Taco
Shhh. Dont mock the demons or they will come looking for you
How a little sell off sends you little bitches running for cover
News flash people: america is not responsible for all things that happen. There are other forces at work.
Just be happy those forces are inferior to ours.
Fickle
Frankly, it’s ancient history. Our gov’t is sinister, just like all others. It’s
A big game of chess in order to gain power. Sometimes you get an iran, others you get ummm… Let me get back to you on that.
I completely agree you. I was in no way trying to give a history lesson or sound conspiratorial; I was just trying to add the little-reported insight on the current military build-up around Iran in regards to Panama’s post. I don’t read this blog nor post on it for politics – I leave that to JakeGint and Purdy. I posted because I am interested in the thread and how the possibility of an airstrike would allow me to bank coin.
In other news, jesus was an alien.
Prove me wrong!
Logic does not exist at puma punka!
Are you watching the History Channel?
do not go there it is evil…how do you know about the spirits there
Did Bruce hack your account?
Jesus? Jesus Herrera? An illegal? I had no idea.
No. I just know it to be true, both on jesus and puma punka.
I would like someone to explain how cavemen 17,000 years ago built puma punka.
And begin
There were space alien magicians before King Pakal and yourself.
I will wait for jake to explain puma punka.
Thanks
They were assisted by the urinal shadows.
_______
Precisely. The pyramids were childsplay
Especially for the Don Ameche urinal shadow.
____________
Fair argument, but you know how touchy the religion subject can be. You’re gonna spark a riot!
Anyone notice the decrease in the 3 mth libor rate over the past month? The only reason it went to .54 was due to the Euro crisis. Could that be a sign of confidence returning?
Nymph
You think too much
There are no market rules. This shit is darwinism. Do it right or be eliminated.
I see none of you fuckers are willing to take on the legends of puma punka
The Republicans built it and the Democrats tore it down.
what you see at puma you see in the darkness of space ..it is there, the 1 winged entity is bright the wing is to the right ,sometimes it appears as a cross
some see a world approaching
I have only been to adidas punka, and nike punka.
Saving up my pennies to get to puma.
___________
Let me, there is no such thing as dinosaurs. Scientist are all wrong.
Fickle: As far as someone acting in good faith, see Fly’s post below – no government acts in good faith.
Then your argument is moot. Negotiation is a fool’s game. Might makes right.
___________
Jake: People constantly try and fuck one another – that’s human nature and quite obvious. I was simply posting on the Iran scenario as it is right now – not trying to get into some pseudo-philosophical political debate with you. I made the mistake of alluding to the political environment that led up to it, so shame on me. That being said, it’s pretty tiresome to keep responding to this shit and I’m sure the readers of iBC are yawning too.
I am sick of these retarded comments. The spam filter requirement should be throwing a fucking baserunner out at home plate from shortstop or centerfield. If you can’t nail the throw get the fuck out of here. As a pitcher I’ve intentionally plunked two kids for shitty batting stances.