I am calling it a day here, having had my fill today with horrendous losses in SD. Aside from that, the market is frozen here, ahead of tomorrow’s numbers. Aside from dumping SD, I added to SWN today. That’s it. My VXX, GLW, WTI, FTK ensemble of stocks are busy playing “Red light, Green light 123,” stiff as a dead beaver here. And, the rest of my positions are throwing out false signals and retarded head fakes. Essentially, the stage is set for some serious volatility tomorrow.
Once again, just to impersonate a broken record, I believe the risk is decidedly to the downside, which is why I bought FAZ. Buying here for a quick 30 points is pointless, since you can lose 270 tomorrow. So, do yourself a favor and be happy with the bed you have made and lie in it.
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I’m fully prepared.
Fig or not to fig, that is the question
Ready?
http://a.imageshack.us/img683/4879/dow1930todow2010.png
What’s that? Kindergarten art exhibits?
Are you ready for some football?
it’s the hall of fame game?
are you ready for some FAZball… it’s a bear raid partay?
There’s a comparable spot in the 70s to the current climate as well and it broke and went higher so we will not neccesarily see the 1930 scenario but it’s worth keeping an “I” on thought.
Not that I think this link is very relevant, but I would suggest moving the 3 4 and 5 right one interval on the CY graph to better indicate the similarities to the 30s
Yes, there will be a sell off tomorrow. But -300 is a bit overblown. That is way too predictable to happen, IMO. I will be using tomorrow to add to my IAG position. The run in gold is just beginning.
How about 270?
Tomorrow could be interesting… Google unemployment index, peaking in July:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:UNEMPL
Nothin will happen tomorrow, numbers will be inline and this dull drum will continue. No move before Fed decision next week…
Maybe, if only because people are expecting Fedfireworks
Fly, if there’s high possibility of bad numbers tomorrow, shouldn’t it be reflected in VXX? If yes, why the heck is it frozen??
BECAUSE IT’S RETARDED ETF
The first tick tommorrow will be Green on DJIA.. Economic reports do not change trends, they just cause a momentary blip. all you cats are going to cover in the morning. We will challenge April highs soon. The bullish Falling Axe pattern just formed, and I see another very powerfull Stock leg formation forming right now.
FIG
Can you read tea leaves? What pattern did they form?
Normally I’d agree with you. But the truth and lies of this rally are embedded in the employment numbers. If Wall St. gets a whiff of employment deterioration, we will pull back 10%+ from current levels.
Again, that’s not a crash. That’s just normal thinking intertwined with valuation targets.
I don’t know what constitutes a whiff. I sense the stench already, but to Wall St, it may not even constitute a whiff.
shorted AGU near close
can someone explain to me why NFLX is rising so much on no news whatsoever?
Unemployment goes up. People spend more time home. They have nothing to do, and need to be cheered up. Thus go long NFLX and liquor producers.
entertainment is big during depressions. everyone sees a movie as an “escape”…
that, and it’s a high growth name. Momentum begets momentum as people chase performance.
think Cramer was pushing last night or this afternoon … he said oversold or bottom in, usual prediction with lemmings following his lead.
Noob, just buy NFLX leap options. You will thank your stars every day of your life after one year.
Calls or puts?
DOW LOSES 5 POINTS! YIKES!
Meanwhile, I raised cash into the close… with very minor gains for the day.
I may be bullish… just not foolish
Hey Fly,
your SD is a D.O.G.
How about you man up and post your returns so everyone can see how much of a loser you are?
Frank
I am up more than 35%. Why do you ask?
While SD is a dog and has been a horrible loser for me, do you think it represented a lot of my holdings, considering I am 40% cash and 40% equities.
If I had all of my assets in SD, I would have lost 5.5% today. As you readily know, I do not have my entire book in SD. You need to learn a little something about asset diversification and how to endure losses without being wiped out.
Bearish “Rising Wedge” formations in daily charts of Dow, Nasdaq, and SPX.
Bullish “Falling Wedge” in Dollar Daily chart.
Bad Job # could trigger Stock index wedge breaks downward. Good # could trigger Dollar wedge break upward. Bulls trapped either way
And if Ben releases QE2, and more free mortgages, Oil will scream to 100$. That will absolutely hammer retail and discretionary.
I am by no means a permabear. Ive actually leaned bullish 2/3rds of the time over the last year. But I see nothing but doom from these scenarios.
If the dollar rises because of an improving economy then stocks will go up. Just because the dollar goes up does not mean stocks automatically go down. Check out what happened during the dot com bubble. The dollar was knocking heads off and the market went bezerker. Didn’t end well, but that’s not the point.
sorry gentlemen i could not participate today, we went shopping for curtains & drapes.i never new there was a difference ..i do now after being lead around from store to store ….stores without a tool dept. should be banned…i swear
Ridiculous, no?
Off to Lowes
lowes was not involved but kathys curtains and some other dept stores were..there will be a curtain and drapes lady coming over on monday..i know whats going to happen ,this is going to become a major project not limited to curtains..i can feel it
Lowes is a great place for old ladies wanting to by ceiling fans…Lowes is a fucking joke to contractors as there are no discounts on any size order…even $6000.00 of lumber….they can go fuck up a rope…whether the rope is frozen or not….same for Home Depot
stores without a tool dept should be banned……..fuckin A……she buys the shit,then i have to install it…….lol so true. my mistake was naming the business honey do handyman some 9 yrs ago.
Curtains and drapes, the pain has only begun …wait until she wants “window treatments”.
oohhhhhh
Mind me asking what is the difference between curtains and drapes? I never knew there was a difference either, but maybe I could impress a lady if I knew what each were.
curtains=lighter fabric… drapes = finishing touch,heavier material
both need to be 1-1 & 1/2 -2 times larger than window ..we have a big bay window that she wants professionally done along with other windows 16 in all ..and there are 1000 options for the way they go..so its just better for me to let the people come out with all their samples and stuff and let her make a day of it…jc penny is who is coming out…
remember this…its always about her and what she wants..for you ,your man cave =basement and be happy with it…and dont ever put your dirty hands on the curtins..oh and by the way expect to be doing this summer and winter every other year
What’s wrong with using an old bed sheet to cover your winders?
nevermind.
Job growth whisper number 135,000? FAZ may suffer. Then again, the real number may be well short of the whisper, so …..FAZ could scream to the upside.
i stuck around long enough this morning to watch mark haines interview art cashin…cashin looked terrified about the employment numbers …to me thats like watching a guy shove most of his stack in before the last card is dealt , and i smooth call…and when the last card is dealt and i see it wasnt what he wanted, but what i wanted, well a value bet is in order….
Where did you hear that whisper?
Every Tom Dick and harry thinks the unemployment number is going to be bad or unchanged. So where is the surprise. Why did the market not sell off. In fact the market is up a hair after closing??????? Are they waiting until tomorrow and why. Is the real surprise that the market will take off and go straight to 1031-1041-1051 to take out those stops before turning down. What’s your WAG
Why are most here so distraught about tomorrow? Why so disturbed? Why so fearful? Why so bearish?
Have you not been paying attention? This market is gay and schizo, Barney Frank-style..
It will do what gay, schizo markets with a lisp will do.
This is the best post on this here blog!
The homophobe doth protest too much.
I am at 2.55, so quit ya yappin’ about a market meltdown .
Balls, gentlemen, balls. Trade like you got a pair!
You can be sure that any bad news will get balanced by equally good, if not even better news.
What? Am I chopped liver? Why have you forgotten me?
For now… Just enjoy your time alone. Soon, we will talk about you and your friend FUCK = Florida, Utah, California, Kansas.
looks like a lot of nobody trusting nobody in the futures….thats what i like to see
Tomorrow will be the test..if she comes in, great! if not, packing up my stuff in my gremlin and heading west down interstate 68 pedal to the metal. Singing.. I’m free, free falling
Not really.. Insanity kicking in
It’s OK – I know you meant Pacer, and Freebird.
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEE-HAWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!
you went to far the last time and you fouled the word…so listen to me fuckers…remember the crash “09” ….i heard you praying,and making all kinds of promises to the holiest of hollies…and your prayers were answered…you did not keep your promises so now i must remind you of the word of the holiest…10% of your gains must go to a church, any church ..so it is written and so it must be..do not temp the holy one..do not make excuses,and do not deny
Somebody been smoking crack pipe in the back pew while looking at the back of betty and jim’s head, wondering how they got their hair to look so perfect, occasionally listening to every other word the pastor is speaking, and wondering to youself what is this all about.
I”ll tell you what it all about.. It all about God. Jesus Christ..and i want to live to serve him with my heart mind and soul.. He is real .. He is every lasting… He is forgivness ..while we were yet sinner christ died for all.
^^^JakeG.^^^
I think not.
That’s not Jake.
Nope.
Definitely not Jake.
Steve The Neighbor?
Not him either.
NFP is always the greatest head fake, whatever the data is…wait and watch how the USD trades. If it is a good number we could see a dollar rally and sell off in equities. fwiw.
For the love of car bombs and arsenic cocktails !!!
—–
Uhhh … as it were !!!
.
Dollar is ftk’d.
This thread has gone off the rails crazy. Maybe last night’s solar storms?
Moobs, the solar storms were not that powerful. It only registered a mild yellow on the Kp index. And now its all back to green.
Well, Grand Parade of planets is scheduled on 6-7 August 2010. It used to be a good predictor of disasters, and shit in the past. So, if we post S&P charts and make inferences about today’s expected market action based on similar chart patterns in the 30s and 70s, why not to pay attention to the above mentioned fact and position accordingly (sic)?
Chalk up a Win for me please. I am a little busy counting coin.
Thanks
Fly
You think non farm payroll was bad?
You are the Yankees and the Rays of the stock biz.
But, keep an eye on SMH and related chip companies for a bounce back after the gap down.
AMD is unchanged and AMAT only down a few pennies- watching for a Spitzer in and out.
followed you on faz. If your going lose, lose big,
If your going to win, win big.
Dollar-Yen has some nice movement for the mo mo FX players.
I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this article was great. I don’t know who you are but definitely you are going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already 😉 Kind regards!
Ok I feel like screaming and jumping for joy….?
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