Well, we are halfway through 2010 and the markets are reeling. Despite minor year to date losses, the recent trends have been horrific, particularly in commodity related names. As always, there is a fight being played out, live in the markets, between the inflation and deflation crews. On one hand, common sense dictates that we are about to enter some brand of fucked up inflation, based upon the behavior of the Federal Reserve and incessant “bail out anyone” attitude of the Federal Government.
On the other hand, people seem to forget the banks are lying about their losses, thanks to new accounting rules, and will get sucked into the deflationary vortex, hard core, if some of the sovereign debt risk worsens. The losses are too great for the banks to bear. As a result, there will be a seizing up of credit, effectively pushing us over the ledge into the whimsical world of “double dip recession.” Plus, there seems to be a worldwide movement against easy money, vis a vis “austerity” measures and “responsible budgeting” here in the states.
Let me be clear: I am not here to tell you what is better for the economy. I am here because I know what will help stocks go higher. Say what you want about easy money and fucked up bailouts; but Wall Street likes it. Take the punch bowl away and we will all feel the pain immediately, some more so than others, indeud. Maybe we need to bite the bullet and throw this fucker into a deflationary vortex, so we can all come out “cool as fuck” on the other end, with mohawks and shit. However, something tells me deflation will lead to war and war will lead to a kick ass market. So, maybe I am for deflation?
Year to date, I am up 37% for clients and much more for myself. Coming off of 60% and 90% returns in 2008 and 2009, “The Fly” is enjoying an investment renaissance for the ages. With the grace of Santa Claus and God, I’ve been able to destroy my enemies and crush the markets, with ease and with dignity, all the while inventing the greatest investment tool ever known to mankind, The PPT.
Halfway done, I have a 65% cash position and decent sized holdings in FLS, CIEN, FTK, GS, SD, SHLD and TNA—just to name a few. My goal is to return more than 100% this year, which, if accomplished, will be the first time I’ve enjoyed triple digit returns since 2003. I am not particularly sure where this market is going, 3-6 months out. If forced to guess, I’d say we are going much, much lower. But, you never know what the Fed has up their gay sleeves. Keep in mind, the tougher things get, the greater the likelihood the Fed will intervene. Hell, we may get another stimulus package before it’s all said and done. After all, it is an election year.
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I am going to invest in seeds, ammunition, bulk pharmaceuticals, canned goods and gold bars. Amen.
Fly:
I’m not sure the banks are so tight as you suggest. If they were there wouldn’t be $1 trillion as reserves lying around with the Fed earning 25 basis points.
In fact the real worry is that they actually have this money lying around and are too afraid to lend it out at say 4% because they’re concerned about not getting back. That’s the shit that really worries me.
They are not lending. I know this for a fact. All they are doing is playing the curve for easy, ponzi scheme, money.
Hendry says the banks are definitely not lending to each other in Europe.
And as far as the Fed having gay sleeves – I think it’s just that they don’t like girls.
Braveflaps;
Europe is a real worry. Japan is even a bigger fucking worry.
J–
Doesn’t that make them zombies either way? The real issue to me has always been solvency, not liquidity.
Chess:
Not really, I don’t think so. If the circumstances were different and they thought they had a chance of getting it back they would be lending out the money that’s sitting at the Fed.
Look at the bright side. At last there is that money there and if circumstances change they will lend out again.
I think we’re far too impatient. We’ve just come out of a fucking clawhammer-like decline in all economic stats, potentially steeper even than the decline in the 30’s and we expect things to be getting back to normal in a year. Lets not forget that it was only Feb and march in 09 that the banking system really did look like it was about to go under.
It takes time and it could be as long as 5 years before we begin to see normalization.
I have a bit more faith that their Tangible equity is pretty decent.
What’s the chances currencies stabalize, shit calms down and good olde goldielocks returns to mesmorize the CNBC commentators again, kinda like ’05 and ’06
In the realm of possibilities or we just get screwed by massive inflation or the not so friendly deflationary vortex?
Also, i am considering joining, that was a good sales pitch for the PPT. I’ve heard $29 a month, is there a contract or month to month?
Bull
I don’t think Goldilocks is here anymore. She lives in China.
PPT is one of my greatest accomplishments, aside from my kids. No sales pitch. It makes me money.
Sign up is via paypal, payments are recurring, unless you cancel in advance.
Ahhh fuck. So I gotta open up a Pay-Pal account, again, so that I can subscribe to the ppt. I dropped that shit two years ago when the Pay-Pal spammers, jammers, Russian mob, and identity thieves kept nuking my email with shit about my Pay-Pal account. You can’t take my visa numbers directly, I can’t wash your Lexis twice a month in exchange?
This dart board Monkey is getting a subscription to the ppt for his burfday, lat month. I’m sold. You guys know what the fuck you’re doing and I want in. Mucho Gracias Senor Tropicana!
It is possible to open and fund a Pay Pal account in a way that preserves privacy and minimizes risk. The process just takes a bit longer.
I totally agree…I want to sign up for PPT but don’t want to have to open a PayPal account. The 20 spam messages a day about my last PayPal account that I opened 5 years ago are just starting to die down to a trickle. I’d rather send $1000 bills thru the mail in see-thru envelopes that use that service…is there no other way to pay for the PPT??? Can I send Jeremy cans of rare coins, gold bullion, barrels of oil…or any other shit I have buried in my back yard waiting for Great Depression II?
yea bro, i feel the exact same way,christ, i dont even own a cell phone, and i dont fucking want one. dude, i have a recurring ad for my biz in the local paper,here’s my mexican express card, keep my shit perpetual,cause i’ll be watching every month, as i get a statement every month. and that would be cool………………..oh, and i think i figured out what PPT means..perpetual profit taking:) party on garth
Beautifully presented, and, of course insightful. One issue I have is with the presumption that if deflation pushes us into war that naturally we will win! We haven’t “won” a war in 70 years. And this generation is different than the “greatest” generation that did that for us in WW2. Our only trump card to win a war with anything other than a third world country ( which we have not done too well with in the past 70 years) is the BOMB…. and if we actually have to resort to that, Mad Max and the Book of Eli is our destiny. Of course, with the current administration, some would argue that it is part of the plan that we lose a war without using the bomb, and Hugo Chavez eventually lives in the White House. I know some people that are too interested in Idol and Glee to give a fuck, which is another problem for us…..but my kids and your kids wont have the life we want them to have. Our only hope is to take the chemo as soon as possible and and hope we can kill the cancer, but we have doctors who keep assuring us that we are perfectly healthy. With this scenario, the cancer will be so rabid ( seems like it already is) that the meds are going to be too little, too late.
We haven’t “won” a war in 70 years.
Norman Schwarzkopf (sp?) laughs at you.
Am i reading it right that it is 50 a month if I want to try it out? I thought i heard 30. Is there coupon or something I need to cut out? I’m ok if its 50 just want to be sure i’m not missing something
depends how long you sign up for
1 mo – 49 per
6 mo – 39 per
12 mo – 29 per
i’ll bank your coin. time to reapply the sunscreen before the burn.
http://enjoythe4th.blogspot.com/
As a homosexual female that reads your posts & generally enjoys them, I would appreciate if you would cease & desist from using terms such as “gay” in slang/slander/etc. Thank-you…
Relax, they’re just words. It only bothers you because you let it.
A s a heterosexual male that also reads his posts and also generally enjoys them I would appreciate it he continues using those terms as they’re funny.
Perhaps it would be best if the homosexual community stopped stealing such words from the English language .
Mr. Fly, with all due respect Sir, you should try using the word “ghey” in place of “gay”. The only people offended by the word “ghey” are truly “gay” types that are offended by anything and everything, so fuck them!
You fuck them, you become one of them. Remember that, son.
You and I have something in common. I’m in touch with my female side …and she too is homosexual. But she doesn’t mind Fly”s parodies of Junior High trash talkers.
Is dike ok ?
I once stuck my finger in a dike to prevent a dam flood, the dike then squirted in my face… She’s no longer a dike, thanks to me, they were able to get a new one to replace her before any additional interior damage took place.
Gay is simply a term meaning “a hindrence upon society by acting in a way that is generally seen as unnatural towards human evolution, unless containing inferior genes in which one should not reproduce with anyways.” If you use those terms it is clearly true in more ways than one, and no offense needs to be taken.
An excellent summation. The prosecutions rests…
BTW–these are the same issues that have been on the table for over a year. The bullshit “Stress Test” gave the all clear sign–especially while the FED was pumping cash via MBS buying.
The problems are the same, but the punchbowl has been nonexistant for the past 2 months…
Sunshine
Go fuck a flagpole. The Fly is the opposite of nice.
Don’t worry, i hate regular fuckers just as much as the homo variety.
eggzactly[sic]
listen Sunshine, gay really means to have a fun time (back in the old days) to have “a gay ‘ol time” was even the last line in the theme song of the Flintstones cartoons
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2s13X66BFd8
so. since you now have taken that word and now have also stolen the fucking rainbow from everyone….deal with it.
I’m enjoying the fact that you’re explaining the origin of the word gay to a homosexual, and thinking she doesn’t already know it.
really? I thought gay meant “The enjoyment felt when dealing a fabulous knockout.”
From the root “gah” meaning “the reaction one makes when having his mustache punched off” and yay meaning “fabulous!!!!”
male queers used it to describe themselves as they would often resort to knocking an unsuspecting male out, holding him captive thus “making them “gah-yay” and doing what they will with them,
Much like the fed does to the monetary policy I might add, hence their “gay tricks” up their “gay sleeves”.
“cool as fuck with mohawks and shit” is classic…
What we know is that China is closing the printing press, 2009 happened because China Spent money like crazy, they tried to save the world by causing this stupid huge copper bubble. They thought USA would thank them but Obama came out and Bitched Slapped them over stupid Tires….the day they did that, China Press changed towards the World. They are so pissed off and stupid ass USA just can’t see it. USA printing money will have the same effect as Europe’s One Day Trillion Dollar Rally…….This is all a Mess and we will just have to work thru it to clean it up……unless china wants to help again, but I doubt that cuz they really have a bunch of bad loans from all the graft that happened…………………..o/s yes, but could get a lot wilder.
I just stepped into the PPT time machine for the first time.
Initial impression – very nice
I will have fun this fourth of July weekend getting familiar
“However, as you unwind over a nice mug of steamed garbage, Le Fly is eating grapes and guzzling down champagne, as if it was Poland Spring water.”
Stay Cool into the Lows, Pony Boy.
____________
Paypal gateway
Accepts credit cards too
I’m back in the peanut gallery….here is my weekly piece http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/
Fly, I assume the PPT covers US only. Any chance to extend it to some other (European) markets as well?
Indeed. Shared similar thoughts a few days ago. I feel blessed Le Fly feels the same way. Oh and for all you sheeplets, so it was said and so shall it would be known. I mean this –> http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2010/07/02/who-gives-a-rats-ass-to-the-rating-system/
Fly, you know what sucks is that your thesis is most likely right “on the money”. Not that being correct is wrong but in this case, being correctly wrong sucks ass!
Meanwhile, the Big Dry keeps taking profit:
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -71 2280
As a gay male i gotta chime in and say that the word gay is not at all offensive, the word faggot or fag is however offensive to most in the community, its like using the N word. We like be called gay! The fly never seems to be using gay in a way that offends gay men, well maybe flamboyant ones but frankly we make fun of the also.
Where does “queer” fall? I hear a lot of gay guys use that.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that…
______
And what do you say about the term “fudgepacker”?
Common, like straight guy really care about rainbows, gimme a break. Just be thankful we didnt take light beer or trophy moose heads.
There’s gold at the end of the rainbow, fucker. We of the leprechaun-ish bent have grounds for a suit…
______
Will you gay folks quit acting so damn gay?
Thanks
Best line yet!! Ha Ha!
Quint
U can send check to jeremy
Great…I’ll email him to get the address.
I swear to god, you fuckers need to quit talking about gay shit.
I wonder who the pervert was that took the word ” Gay ” and made it mean something totally different, wasn’t any of you right?
lol
Sold TWM and bought UWM. Still holding QDEL (and that unmentionable IBGH, left in the portfolio to remind me to cut losses early).
For what its worth you guys/gals/gays/anomalies/asexual/bisexual or whatever have a nice holiday weekend. I’m going shopping for dog groomers to get Kaiser his Mohawk.
“we are on an express elevator to hell, going down..”.
Quote from the movie Aliens ’82
This market is… to quote my dear friend karl childers and revel in the gayiety theme of the day
“funny haha not funny queer.”
If you want some comedy you should read the slope guy’s last two posts.
I actually like the guy but his manic posts today are hilarious rotfl
Yeah. I hope Dr. Fly doesn’t have internet mishaps when he goes to NE. Then again, we are a lot less ass backwards than the folks out in the West
Sorry to bring it up again, but this market is gay.
the only gay in the village from little britain
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ-D8CXpUQs
Come to think of it, wasn’t JakeGint formerly know as ‘Gayus Shorticus’?
Just asking…..
Ok. I’ll stop now with the gay references.
Off to make my 1.50% for today…
“Shorticus Andronicus, Caeser.”
___________
Anyone know why VXX is being such a turd today?
I have like a 500 page barclays document that was sent in a day after I sold it, I’m sure there’s something in there talking about why VXX is not the VIX and how it rnadomly uses investment capital to hedge it’s bets on VIX futures.
Historically OMM’s crush vol during this time. Additionally VIX is not confirming this down move due to momentum divergence.
Maybe because no one is believing in this sell off and think we will rally soon? Maybe the VXX is correct or maybe we won’t get a really rally attempt until everyone piles into the VXX? Will have to watch this…fwiw FXP is up, maybe people are betting on slower China and not slower USA….which is kinda stupid.
Do you know what is really gay????…..That real un-employment is in the low 20% range and the media doesn’t bring this up because they coddle the doppelganger in chief…that and Carl Quintanilla.
I’ve seen groups of people living under the bridge at the entrance to the interstate near my house. Unreal.
Maybe they’re trolls…if you find out that they are, spray them with Windex….
Pathetic market volume for a jobs Friday…meaning this market could get pushed big any direction by the close.
Will bp go to 0?
Only Fly, via his fantastically enchanted time machine, can tell you this. But really, do you really want to be in this one now? Lawsuits are upcoming. Oil still flowing. And now oil is contaminating live fish, via the live fish eating the dead fish contaminated with oil. … but of course… what do I know… I’m a dumas.