Unprecedented Oversold Condition
A little birthday gift from me to you: The PPT is indicating an unprecedented oversold condition. As a result, I bought the following stocks in size:
[[FLS]]
[[MTW]]
[[TYH]]
[[ATPG]]
[[RAX]]
[[TYH]]
Size and prices are in The PPT. I’m a little busy now.
Here is a little “end of the world” tune for you, for your listening pleasure, as the world, umm, ends.
97 Responses to Unprecedented Oversold Condition
toothpaste ad. interesting.
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Dow 11k this summer, 12k by September.
There is no way the ecb cuts rates here. The next newswire to report the ECB rate cut rumors as fact deserves a 1 way ticket to Guantanamo bay
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good luck with that prediction.
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There’s something i know about the ECB, which 99.9% of the world does not know.
Anyway
Above Dow 11k,I was extremely bearish on stocks-saying oil had to return to 60$.
65$ is reasonable for a bottom,considering spill
70% chance they plug the spill tomorrow.
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70% chance they plug 80% of it. But 100% chance there isnt ONE new offshore drilling platform approved, anywhere, for the next 20 years.
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You offering action on that? I’ll take what ever you offer.
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Actually, Kafka—I am setting up my own exchange for a bet on this. Here is my trade platform, in the beta stage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sRHd5pngWE
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Disagree with that. [100% chance there isnt ONE new offshore] Sanity will prevail, imo. Lessons will be learned and applied.
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I’ll put his list on watch..I woulnd’t buy RAX if you paid me..we did some biz with them..ouch
have FLS already may add on weakness..IOC strong…I added..
Panama Orange: I thought we discussed this earlier. No friggen way. 12K?? No chance.
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I still see 12k as doable by middle of summer
Driven by Oil gap up to 90-ish.
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Tell me more. Please show your work.
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the central premise im working on is this—
The big money has been wrong on every bounce since july. They are piling on here, as its the only way to justify missing so much of this rally. Ive seen the figures claiming that mutual funds are at record long positions. But there is not 1 index volume study that supports that statistic (SPY QQQ, IWM).
http://i659.photobucket.com/albums/uu317/panamaorange/jpg2.jpg
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When Fly says unprecedented he is not shitting. And when he says size he means buffalo balls on the block chopping carrots size.
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Or worse: detroit
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They couldn’t survive here.
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On that topic, Kwame just got sentenced to 1-1/2 to 5 years in prison! LMAO
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The reprimand the judge gave was excellent.
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Sure was.
Sad thing is, once he’s out, he’ll probably be re-elected.
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I’m hoping the kinds of people who elect men like this will have starved off by then.
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Not a chance with the socialists in the throne room.
In fact if you want to make a long term wager I’ll bet that by 2020, barring a complete global meltdown and Armageddon itself thrown in for good measure, 40% of the US population will be supporting the other non-productive 60%.
I am tickled sideways and pink that Kwame is going to jail. Hopeful that it will send a message to others like him (but I doubt it) and praying he does the entire 5 due to bad behavior. The guy and Detroit are both embarrassments to our beautiful state. Now if we could just get Governor Jenny a room in the same hotel we’d be halfway home.
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Jenny is a cancer.
And my prediction for Kwame is that he’ll become a successful gangster rapper, while imprisoned.
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Good for you, never resting on your laurels, even after impressive winship.
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Looks like the fly really likes [[TYH]] since he added it 2x there….
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ha…
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It is a little scary how fast buy orders are getting filled this morning!
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Can you throw us pikers a bone on your birthday and reveal the score? To get some perspective on how this compares to earlier “corrections”.
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from a non-piker: it is very low. so low, you should be afraid for the end of the world.
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There ARE piker subs you know. All I’ll say is if you WERE a member (even a piker), you would have paid for several years worth of subs today. That is my last word on the subject.
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Woe is me.
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honestly, panamayellowfever… you’re an idiot. give it up. go buy some more euros
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I started buying almost euros 5 months after all your bear guru heroes– when they were buying into the top in winter.
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btw– I was break even on 3/4ths of my euro long position during the spikes last week. I still refuse to scale out until we see 1.30. Goldman’s 1.34 target is genius, even though they did steal it from my stocktwits postings.
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How are you arriving @ $90 oil? Just curious. It seems really really high.
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We hit 80 against a dropping euro. Stabilization in $CAD $AUD and $NZD, along with a euro squeeze, could make oil gap 10 dollars per week—pre-lehman style. I don’t think 110-120 would be difficult. But, 90-95 could start to hurt retail/discretionary again
The dow, an export driven index, was able to rally for 6 months in spite of dollar rally. T
his means the next bounce could move twice as fast, as it could actually have the benefit of a dropping dollar.
USU?
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Going to Skinflints for a kick ass burger and fries for lunch in honor of The Fly’s Birthday.
Brooklyn’s Finest burgers. I will have the following words for the waiter:
Burger well done, French Fries, Giant Ass Coke, and The Fly is God
HA!
Zombie,
I own a house literally 5 blocks from there and used to live there for years.
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Holy Shit! That’s awesome. Then the waiters will know what I’m talking about. Hilarious.
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The Dunkin’ Donuts a few block down was my old pitstop, prior to subway destination.
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I’ll have to stop by there too at some point.
Unfortunately Skinflints said they weren’t gonna open until 12:30 and
that was even questionable since they just installed a brand new grill.
My bro in law was in a bit of a hurry so settled for Areo (which hasn’t been good for ten years but it’s his favorite pasta spot). Total bummer!
My energy stock positions would appreciate it if everyone would abandon this idea of public transportation. It’s overrated.
I’m off to fire up the SUV and let it idle for the next 6 days.
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I assume you are recommending such comestibles because you hope not to see fly make it to his next biomarker ? Perhaps you could arrange a private escort to that landmark eating hole by that fat sweaty spikey fellah on diners drives and whatnot from the food porno channel. cheers!
and happy bday flyerooni
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Hey Birthday Boy, Hope you don’t mind but I am posting my analysis on FLS here, This weekend I sooooo wanted to play w/PPT but I got stuck with ASCO research for next week, but it’s coming. Here it is, FLS support at 80.07,82.42,if can’t hold 89.71 w/94.40 resistance…..so bottomline, if
under 90 it’s a failing knife ala the divebomb it took in 2008…..which you know is soooooo cool that 90 is exactly the 50% retrace high/low from 2008 low and high….look at 2008…ouch…..THIS is exactly the SAME point Jake’s yesterday SNDK was at…cool huh.
But SNDK was hitting 50% level on the way up, FLS hitting it on the way down, which makes 90 a very strong support which super ouch if it can’t hold.
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“Unprecedented oversold condition”? Even worse than 10/17/2008 territory, or have you tested back that far???
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Yes, even lower.
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ouch…
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For the love of Tonya Harding and collapsible police batons, it’s going to be an interesting trading day.
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Has The Fly ever met The Fry?
Inquiring minds…
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just curious if u back tested the PPT during the 2008 whoosh regards to oversold readings- i believe you didnt have it up and running by then
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I had this in my article in the peanut gallery…but thought it could help cuz auction in 15minutes…, “we’ll have the two-year note auction, with the last bid-to-cover ratio at 3.03 with a high yield of 1.024% and 2009 average bid to cover of 2.94 and high yield of .943%. “
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Areos is good. The token guido spot.
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Like Sal’s in that famous Spike Lee film?
________
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Ha! So true.
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the last two years has been “unprecedented” so going long “in size” based on “unprecedented oversold conditions” is meaningless.
Good luck with that.
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I would argue that the past two years have not been “unprecedented.” Wall Street is just going through another one of its periodic scandals. There’s been a “crisis” every few years since forever. Granted, there aren’t as many this century as there were in say, the 1800′s (when shit blew up every other year) — but the market conditions now are only gut-wrenching relative to what we were used post the dot-com bubble burst.
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So accepting the “oversold” diagnosis, and I do:
I would be interested in any insight on the interaction between “oversold” markets and scary events in the news. Today was are oversold, but war threatens the Koreas, for example, which scares markets.
Does the news just postpone the “necessary” correction up, so we should expect it in another day or three? Does the “oversold” really only govern if the news is neutral? Or are we to believe that the PPT or whatever is somhow accounting for the day’s news already (part of “fundamentals” or whatever)? Is there a lag in accounting for news?
- Walter the Piker
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Fly, if you bring back Mr. R. W. Pelican will you make him kind of oil stained?
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Haha.
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Was out all day and I just want to tell you pig-porking potato leeches something true:
The e-mail notification (hourly) on the PPT level changes is worth the price of the annual subscription alone…
… AND MOOOOOOORE!!
__________
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Indeud. I was in a similar situation on Friday, and it certainly was worth the price of admission. This morning was another “PPT pays for itself” type of days.
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Agreed, these email updates are fantastic, get them on the phone just about anywhere. Thanks, Fly, and happy B-day too.
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Is that happening yet? I am not receiving them if so
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Did you sign up? http://ppt.ibankcoin.com/update_auto_email_settings.php
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Yes – I just did it again
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Hmm…is your spam filter perhaps blocking it? Please try checking the spam folder.
If it’s still no go, shoot me an email at jeremy_at_ibankcoin_dot_com
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Just beautiful, short VXX and short SPY — both in the green (initiated yesterday)
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Not to argue with the prowess of the PPT, but I have not yet seen any real signs of the “capitulation” that tends to mark extreme oversold conditions and temporary bottoms. How can the PPT suggest we are at “unprecedented” oversold conditions?
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Fly thAnks for the heads up in tyh
I wanted in and just happened to read your blog this am. I like the pop.
Looks to me like a GS deal has been struck. It will be announced for the unwashed once they’re done positioning for the snap back.
They’ll pay about $1.2 billion and fire a janitor.
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It’s about time . . . the suspense has been killing me.
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Damn, the fly and sanchez…..neva woulda thought. lawd a mercy!
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Over DOW 10,000 again. Who doubts the PPT?
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Come get your 2010, “DOW 10,000!” Shirts, hot off the presses!
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If the market goes positive today the PPT will have delivered a steaming helping of STFU to the Bears!
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end of the world u2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejJdfkFjKCA
nice call by the PPT. Nailed it.
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The market is a joke. It eventually will be clown raped.
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Luv what you’ve done with your teeth ….
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PPTwon. Deal with it.
back to festivities
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Caught the turn and redeployed cash in large cap liquid securities as you suggested … Thnx!
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OEW also nailed the turn … Hope H5O took my advice last night and refrained from deploying his cash into shorts …. here’s tonight’s summation with a warning regarding a positive CIT unless 1090 is broken.
“The SPX gapped down at the open hitting the OEW pivot at 1041 exactly. This low fully retraces the entire Feb-Apr uptrend and found support at the previous 4th wave of a lesser degree, Major wave 4. After that the market rallied back to the 1058 pivot, stalled for a couple of hours, and then broke through on the upside. Despite the spike down and reversal today the action was still not enough to turn the short term OEW charts positive. Remember the downtrend swing pivot is at SPX 1090. Above is postive, below remains negative.”
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Teahouse,
My most accurate trend following system says short at 1044 and as such gave a signal to short today. and although I hadn’t read your post until just now, I didn’t short.. thanks god. However, I’m still not convinced we’re not going down some more.
If you don’t mind, I’d like to understand the body of literature that you seem to refer to frequently as I am not familiar with it.
So please advise. I am still learning and would appreciate your suggestions.
Thanks!
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http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/default.aspx
When you click on his charts you’ll find a key at top that will assist you in reading the waves as labeled, therefore Primary, Major, Intermediate and so on. Tony does a weekend report where he reviews LT, Medium and ST waves and does some informative/instructional posting from time to time. It’s taken me some time to pick it up without a course or formal manual to study but I like a good challenge and find that’s it’s been a great timing tool.
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Thanks Tea!
Much appreciated.
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to whom it concerns:
happy birthday
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So Kim Jong il tells his troops to prepare for combat on Fly’s birthday. Odd no?
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Yes, a very Happy Birthday to the Fly. I will drop by with a present.
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Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything Liquid, You Won’t Recognize America By The End Of The Year.
What say, ye, Le Fly?
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The happiest of birthday wishes to you Sir Fly and many thanks for this house of coin.
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A tribute to Senior Tropicana……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jNyr6BJZuI&a=qYegIRmYWi8&playnext_from=ML
…….bigger than Hip Hop
Enjoy the celebration on another year of living and market mastery.
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three minutes till count down of another prosperous healthy year. Next time you and Howard decide to do a fireside video could you please button up. It’s one thing to make the boyz envious a whole other story when you make the girlz go wild with pectoral major stuff. Burning..Hunk of Happy Birthday..eyes !!
Here is to many more with certainty that all your smoke rimmed wishes come true!
MM, Jake told me that was a California Actor.
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OK I know I should have learned PPT this weekend vs Asco research….this market and FLS interest me…FLS was oversold, but moving up into the close I wonder how it’s PPT score changed…and with Eur/USD moving up to resistance levels…..did that effect FLS being a global growth play PPT score??? Has anyone mixed PPT with fibo analysis yet? Also, hitting that 1079ish/1082 resistance does that change FLS PPT score………………………..Shanghai Comp almost flat, Shanghai Copper up a bit, but not a lot, yet Rebar down….strange Steel up, Ore down in spot prices…..even it’s choppy….FX just chopping around too……………..Fly, Will we sell the Durable Goods News even if BTE? Everyone knows it should be good….yet USA GDP pending won’t let it go much higher?
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Fucking aye to the PPT and The Fly for calling that oversold condition. Got my wife from 100% cash to 100% long right at the bottom thanks to that call.
Looks like my VXX short is going to hit my PT today. I was going to close all at 30 but i think i’ll close half and see if i can get the rest out at $27.
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