Okay, I am officially baked for the week. Often times, I sort of skate through markets, with the specific intent of avoiding emotion. When things get sporty, I go eat sandwiches or throw firecrackers at piker brokers, from the back of my 1980’s style stretch limousine. Today, I will drink heavily, while recounting some of my stock market splendour [sic] to complete idiots, people who don’t know the difference between a stock or a peanut butter sandwich.
Anyway, the market is volatile for three reasons:
1. Bullshit hedge funds are being pressed to sell, following their asshats investment policies gone awry.
2. People are scared to be long over the weekend.
3. The long bond is rallying, “like fuck.”
However, in my estimation, going long into the weekend, following an absolute drubbing, is a good idea, since government hacks like to surprise the markets with “new and innovative” quantitative policy announcements, on Sunday, prior to Asian trade. Nonetheless, my long exposure is very limited (50%) and I am in an excellent position to make a few errors, being up 27%, year to date.
In closing, do you want to know how I timed this market to perfection?
I am waiting for your next post. You did very well Dr. Fly.
The Fly is God.
That’s dumb….
you’re banned
LOL
ROFL
The Fly is God.
The guy is trying to set up dates with 6 year olds on your blog dude….
Can’t stop laughing.
me too…it’s so clever
the Fly used to do the same thing when he was the commish of our fantasy baseball league
The translation2 of Surah Ikhlas (Holy Qur’an 112:1-4) is:
Say: He is Allah, the One and Only! Allah, the Eternal, Absolute; He begetteth not nor is He begotten. And there is none like unto Him.
Surah Ikhlas is a very important Surah from the Holy Qur’an because it proclaims the Oneness (Tawhid) and Absolute nature of Divine Essence. This concept is presented in the first ayat. The second ayat declares that Allah is Eternal, i.e., He is beyond the bounds of time and space. The third ayat describes that Allah does not give birth nor is He is given birth and the last ayat declares that Allah is beyond comparison. Surah Ikhlas directly supports the first declaration (shahadah) of Islam: “There is no god but Allah”. In this context, Islam is based on belief in one God (monotheism).
Dr Fly has very very good analytical power.
Someone’s trying to get a Fatwa on the Fly
Sorry If i have offened you.
I was trying to say comparing with God is dumb.
Is there a way to delete the comment?
it is too much all of the time. it is like anthony blanche going on about his great love with a woman because they liked to paint their toenails the same colour [sic].
great trades/trading
Well done Sir!
Dr Fly has very good Analytical Power.
super B as much as i admire the fly’s prowess i gotta tell you, don’t forget to brush your teeth tonite as there must be some no so chocolaty chocolate bits from fly’s rear end stuck in between your front teeth.
Could homo-hammer into the close here. Weak pop today.
LOL. Spoke waaay too soon.
Dr Fly
Is it a good idea to SHORT VXX now?
Get you some quick before it collapses.
I got back in a little early but i have no doubt this will be back at $30 by monday.
no
Dr. Le Fly, Thanks for the heads up on VXX a few weeks ago….what a great hedge for my long term portfolio…..I owe you!!
Ride the Bullet…………for QE, imho,maybe not, Catfight in Europe and they don’t have to be locked into room for deal this weekend plus Germany and Swiss are on Holiday w/ religious holiday, Asia has Tialand they are all watching…like watching a fight after school, and they are going to Expo, Assuie played around, but that was cuz OZ was really in free fall…not so much right now…Have a great weekend. Plus, Hong Kong was closed on Friday so they have to play catch up.
Was that a……mad, imho….libs,, don’t know could be just stream of conscious….recommend check period key on keyboard…seems stuck….thoughts require focus, but appreciate the news of other countries.
I was playing Fly’s Vid song and totally into it when I was writing….yeah just stream of conscious stuff…That IS SUCH a great SONG….did you listen to it? I just read my other post, It has a lot of Nymph Speak in it, it actually makes a lot of sense to me…probably not by most..and Thailand…lol, no post while I watch vids…I am so guilty of that.
I like FLY cause he doesn’t BS around with charts and other hocus-pocus. He uses common sense thesis combined with his intuition on what his buddies in the hedge fund World will do in choosing his trades.
The thing that bothers me about technical analysis is you can show one single chart to 10 different Chartists…and end up with 25 different responses. Thats how stupid the whole concept is.
exactly.
Exactly. And if you show them the chart 5 minutes later…you’ll end up with 25 more responses. They will go balls out and then a few hours later change their minds. FLY on the other hand sticks to his guns and convictions.
Last 3/4 month I have following FLY. I have got pretty good results following him. I donot day trade. I do not have time to play with charts.
I wish he could make the PPT overbought indicator public.
I like my Fibo world, but it’s my own crazy Nymph Stuff, Physics Geeks are sort of easy to follow (they are your Quants)……..they all think the same…………… but I am trying to clear space in my calender to dedicate time to become a Piker….maybe this weekend, but I said that last weekend…I can’t wait to add PPT into all the toys I already play with…
LOL. I wish someone would hand me $100 dollar bills each time I reached into the fridge for a hoppy beer.
________
Victory Brewing Company. One of my favorites. It’s not too far from me and they have a good variety of beers, including Hop Devil. Great beer for people in the perpetual state of winship.
Bells Brewery, “Two Hearted Ale” or “Hopslam,” for the win.
(Kalamazoo, MI)
____
Russian River Brewing Pliny the Elder Double IPA – case closed!
Is that Russian River in Sonoma? Where the Korbel winery and all those good zins come from?
Love Sonoma, especially Healdsburg.
_____
Yessir! Russian River Brewing Brew Pub is in beautiful downtown Santa Rosa, just down the road from Healdsburg. Next time you come out here I’ll buy the pints!
Bell’s Oberon and Sunset (?) Wheat are excellent also. Definitely not in the “lite” beer category. Try it, you’ll like it!
The hybrid score is already too public as is. If you want to know the score, pay up you cheap bastard. Only $1 a day.
Ummm… the entire PPT is less than one dollar per day. Tell your bullshit broker to cut your commission to a reasonable level, sign up for the PPT and be done with it. Already money ahead. You will be more flexible and better informed. But if you just want to “follow” somebody, give your money to a money manager you trust (they will gladly take it) – by doing so you will follow everything he does – instantly, accurately, no work, no worries, no stress….
Overbought! Sheet, worry about that around Memorial Day … We’ve been oversold and the PPT gave a buy signal 1-2 days ago @ 2.22 as I recall.
Try to keep up, will ya?
http://ibankcoin.com/rcblog/files/2010/05/SPX4.png
Supper B: The cost of the PPT is ridiculous. A very low price for the amount of data that is given. Why would anyone want to give a service for free? There are many, many predators out there more than willing to strip you of your wealth and thus, you must take the necessary steps to keep your money out of the hands of the parasites. True wealth is created by production, and production comes from productive people. Fly is a productive individual. His hard work is not to be given for free. That is just the cold heart truth. Nothing worth anything in life is for free.
I disagree. I use it and it’s been working for me…
Vix looks similar to end of september into october of 2008. If history repeats this week won’t be memorable at all.
Trading nymph
Not pimping out ppt, but you would love it. It would fulfill your junkie needs
Le Fly,
Where do you suggest newbies to PPT spend most of their time? Looks like to forums are not super active right now.
Newbies spend time learning the PPT aka the Hybrid. It takes some time to learn what the system is all about. There is an area called “user notes” that members are extremely active. The forum is for general conversation. It really works out perfectly.
duck, If you have a question, post it in the forum. Someone will answer. I started by tracking the hybrid score to manage my overall market position, i.e. if the PPT was in overbougt territory, I would be cautious, if it was in oversold territory I would buy.
There are plenty of archived articles to get you started, and plenty of screens to look for ways to implement a particular market position. For instance there have been short squeeze bank screens, gulf oil spill screens. You get the picture.
Oh Fly, you do know me……
Lady Nymphovere
What an insult – this one like toys!
Jjsix
Correct. I will refrain from sharing ppt scores
Spooky. Grope of Dope blog by Dim Light has a very similar title.
User notes and click on “about ppt” subject. Also, click in my name and view my screens
market seems a little pricey to me… i can wait for the extinction of the euro….
And what mayhem and carnage do you foresee should the sudden demise of the Euro actually occur.
your answers can be found in the lost quatrains of archadamus
Beware of the attack of the fancy pants
PPT = Plunge Protection Team ??? No wonder why the fly always wins …
You stuck to your guns when the VXX was a steaming bag of cow dung
You deserve your ego today, enjoy
The top was extremely easy to see, the intensity of the fall was not
I have adjusted my rules to be more protective in the future.
Let’s be upfront here. There were 6 overbought readings before the move down. I like the 2’s and 3’s, but it needs to be used in conjunction with Fly’s gut. Blindly shorting at the first 3 would probably have gotten you killed.
It’s only a guide like all oscillators
The market can remain overbought or oversold for weeks at a time
Dough
Not entirely true. Some of those 3’s were met with minor sell offs.And, consider the unprecedented nature of the move up, coupled with the ultimate result: CRASH of 1,000 points in a day.
The PPT has never been more overbought. It was right.
This should cover my perspective on my portfolio’s performance this week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRnQEfUvbuU&feature=related
Look close, only 2 of those readings were wrong, 3.12 and 3.06.
I went long FAS into close. Nice buy tgis morning at 22.10
Long live da fly. I once was a cramerican grad. But now i am believe In tbe ppt! Genius
TA works until it doesn’t. You can’t factor in political risk. At some point the FED can’t intervene any longer.
VXX was probably the greatest thing that’s ever happened to me…and i saw kevin costner once…
Senior Fly, first of all, power to the VXX!
Question: the PPT has shown similar overbought readings since late Feb. Do you look at other metrics to validate those readings? Just curious to know how you know when to act. Or do you open small positions when the readings reach extremes and manage from there? My question simply is…how the fuck do you make a lot of money with this PPT cuz I’d like to make some myself.
Stay long, stay hard.
Skogie1
I know why they took the market down in the “Fat Finger Flash Crash” May 6. Simple:
Stock markets hit a new bull rally high on Thursday April 28. On Friday the 29th,
the Dow went down 160 points, but on Monday May 3 a “Monday rally” regained almost
all of the Friday loss. Investors were complacent (I know I was) and failed to hedge
themselves with cheap May equity and index puts which had only 13-14 days till expiration.
The VXX was only about 20. I didn’t fully hedge my longs like I did for April expirations.
The Big Boys knew this – so they pulled off the “Fat Finger Flash Crash” on May 6.
Puts IMMEDIATELY developed a huge premium, and the favorable strikes that would
protect gains were much lower – For example SPY which was above 120 (SP index 1200)
on May 3 could have been hedged cheaply with the 118 strike puts.
Then the May 6 orchestrated crash: The SP index fell to below 1050, and even the
110 strike put became too expensive to buy as volatility premiums increased.
So the “Big boys” not only increased the cost of insurance, they dropped the floor
for it about 10%. So folks that were long got screwed, no easy way to protect themselves.
Fly figured this out – and recommended going long VXX – which it turns out was
about the only way to CYA.
Lesson to be learned: Well into the end of an extended move, buy your option hedges
3-4 weeks ahead of expiration – while the volatility premium is low.
Nice analysis, bravo.
________
Fly, I agree on being baked. Missed my chance on blowing out on the small remainder of VXX and QID that I held. I’m stuck over the weekend. I’ll be on tenterhooks on Sunday night, not due to impact on my portfolio, but as a matter of principle.
It’s Barack Obama’s world, mofos, and you’re just lucky enough to be living in it.
______
Don’t torch his house. Just take all the fuckin’ shit out of it and start a bonfire.
Betraying your moniker again?
____
First time in 7 months that I’ve gone 100% cash. I prefer the safety of a bomb shelter this weekend. The odds are that absolutely nothing will happen, but, considering all the fuckery that has and will go on I saw absolutely no clarity or upside to my positions. Being up 15% YTD is not a bad thing and the wife is alway happy to see a profit.
You guys are pussies with your exotic beers
Fuck that. It beats drinking that homeless man urine. I’ll agree with you that a 40 in hand will put you in a bush.
Hey now! What exactly is wrong with enjoying a truly good beer along with “THE WHOLE F-ING COW?” (see previous comments by yourself)
I’ll be hanged if I’m going to spend $8.99/pound on one of my brother the butcher’s aged sirloins and then chase it down with a bloody Miller Light or equivalent dog piss. Tain’t gonna happen friend.
Time to step it up, Rheingold.
+++++++++++++
Have you tried polagamy porter from salt lake city?
Real good porter beer!
Bring some home to the wives!
Why have just one!
Faggish beer lovers
You guys make beer consumption a fancy occasion. For the love of crippled dogs, must you feminize everything??
Says the guy who drinks fucking morning blend k-cups and earl grey tea. I didn’t think caffeine could sashay around like a Will and Grace fan in the mugs most men drink.
Chiks (sic) don’t drink Schlitz or PBR.
Faggot