Okay, I am about to say “fuck off” to my large [[TLT]] position. At this level, I am mildly profitable. If I sold here, essentially, I wasted 1 month of my life waiting for some retarded deflationary vortex to take hold, all for nothing. Oh, fucking, well.
Look for the Greeks to rape themselves, late April through May. They need to issue a shit load of paper and I seriously doubt it will attract a lot of demand. I mean, the short dated stuff (1 year) is being issued with 6% yields! Compared to German paper of 1%, it will take great Spartan courage to pull off some large long dated issuance.
The trucking industry is humming again, as evidenced by Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , Titan International, Inc. [[TWI]] and a multitude of parts makers. I will look to edge into Titan International, Inc. [[TWI]] , at my earliest convenience.
Also, the chemical industry is smoking hot, all to do with foreign demand. Stocks like Cytec Industries Inc. [[CYT]] and Lubrizol Corporation [[LZ]] will fucking smash numbers this quarter, in my humble opinion of course.
Finally, I want to buy stocks with big cash positions that have lagged. One such name is Novatel Wireless, Inc. [[NVTL]] . Another such name is “go fuck yourself, do your own research, pal.”
In short, there are shortages in semiconductors, forcing prices up–enabling retards to bank coin in semis, all the while I sit here in Treasuries. I am 100% aware of the amount of skill and knowledge that is being wasted here.
Developing…
P.S. Bernanke is a bearded clam.
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are you still holding srs?
yes
my god, did you just capitulate?
no. And if I sold it would not be called “capitulate,” since I’d be selling at a profit.
Fair enough.
But let me be clear, are you shifting back into the fully long camp? )Long equities and risk assets, that is)
yes, selling at a profit. But take into account the amount you lost due to opportunity and inflation, you are selling at a loss. Now time to get serious about making money. Buy some NG, USU, and ES like me, and be happy as this inflation vortex takes over the entire US economy.
RU sure about that “inflation”?
yes I am sure about it. The Fed won’t admit it, but they have taken the policy that the only way to save this country is to ruin the currency. That was always the plan, and it will start to actually show up this summer. The fed doesn’t care about inflation, they actually are proponents of massive amounts of it. This does not mean however, that their inflation desires will come in the areas they wish. They want inflation in real estate more than in any other component of the economy. Unfortunately for them, inflation will get out of control in food and energy long before real estate ever comes back. Fly’s play in SRS is actually quite sound, even with inflation roaring in. Corporate Real Estate is more fucked than any other part of the economy, minus the consumer of course.
Let me just say a few more things about my current macro view. I believe anything that DOES NOT require the end user to borrow to consume will explode higher in price. Anything that DOES require the end user to borrow will not move up, and could even move down in the case of commercial real estate. So, that means consumer goods, like food, energy, entertainment, airline flights, computers, electronics, toys, healthcare , all of the things that people use on a daily basis are going to skyrocket. All of the things that require a loan to purchase, like a car, a house, a boat, vacation home, will not inflate and will deflate in many circumstances. This will all happen because NO ONE is going to loan us money anymore. The only place money will be lent will be through government programs, thus lowering the value of the dollar more. Stock picking will become a real industry again, because many of the stocks that look good, like SPG, are a fucking joke and about to collapse. This will take some time to play out, but it is the only solution to our debt, and Ben knows it.
This kinda blew my mind…
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=TOTBKCR&s%5B1%5D%5Brange%5D=1yr
Looks like “capital shuffling” covered the Euro.
robots seem to be humming along just fine today.
No one in the fed is allowed to touch rates before November elections. Unless, they want to be involuntarily booked on “Buddy Holly airlines” . TLT isn’t making new lows this year. Fund managers will have no where else to go, when they get crushed in equities.
Fly, here’s my top pick for the next few weeks and years.
Brazilian homebuilder GFA (Gafisa).
They just raised about USD 600M in late March, effects ot the secondary are starting to fade (put / call still high going into April OPEX but the May and June options show highly bullish put / ratios at the $15 strike). Earnings have been on fire for the last 4 years. Numbers should be a blow out for Q1 2010 and get reported on April 30, so, starting next week, this stock should begin to run higher. I’ve begun to accumulate in the last few days and will get more aggressive on Friday (OPEX), when the arbitrage desks are done with the stock. Forward P/E is 10 and Expected earnings growth for the next 3 years is 45%. Cyrela, their number 1 competitor in Brazil, reported 300% increase in earnings in late March. I expect coked out numbers from GFA, which is a bigger beneficiary from government sponsored housing program, Minha Casa Minha Vida (for low-incoke residente) than Cyrela, which caters to the middle to upper middle class. Lula also recently announced Minha Casa Minha Vida 2, an extension and expansion of the program. GFA currently holds USD 800M in cash and sports a USD 2.3B market cap. PEG ratio is also obscenely low: 0.27. Anyway, that’s my 2 cents, from Brazil.
Did you get your 40 yet?
Deficits Don’t Matter……GE is Goose stepping to $25 BAM
PAL on the move.
Still holding VXX?
vix will start rising on rising oil wont it
this is melting up in this here fake bullmarket as against a tired bull.
Can you translate that for me in country boy speak?
So you are going to dump me? I thought we were in it for the long haul. I thought we were building a stable relationship in volatile times ahead. So I’m just another cheap “play” to you? All you men are the same…pumpers and dumpers 🙁
That’s the funniest post in the history of ibankcoin — EVER! hahahahaaahahahahahahahahahah
TWI also serves the ag & mining industries …. as Fly edges in, driving the price up more, I will start easing out with an egregious profit … thanks in advance!
That giant bullish 60 min “reverse head and shoulders” is still intact in $FXY yen + $TLT bonds . The $VXX is holding monday’s lows.
Only $XLE and $XLB are advancing on this spike in $EURUSD -other major indexes/sectors have gone limp.
http://www.fieldandstream.com/node/1001312760
You should have held TLT for 1 more day.
who are you talking to Swatter, who sold TLT?
If you think the chemical industry is picking up, then look into TLP. Small cap company that specializes in transportation of, among other high risk materials like petroleum products, chemicals. 8% plus yield and solid fundamentals with an intrinsic worth of about $22.
I already mentioned this one in the Peanut Gallery and own a position in it.
On average (5 times in 5 years), that stock has gone ex-divi on the 28th of April. If everything continues to rise, it would be an easy way to pick up 2%. Also, TLP has risen 9.66% in April (4 years out of 5). In May it has been flat with low variance.
When the Fly cries, you buy!! TLT, VXX, etc.
Imagine Bernanke with a brazillian wax job….
no- never mind.
The Fly is a mere mortal.
go eat a sandwich
or a bowl of soup
Advice taken, sandwich in hand.
Who are you calling bearded?
fly
should i SELL VXX for a loss now?? brought in at $23.67 Ever since I brought in it’s only been going down (%19.16 LOSS)
Maybe, instead of “The Fly,” you should be called “The Chicken?” All those in favor? Kindly submit ideas for new avatar, thankyou.
You should be called “The Goat Fucker”
You can call me whatever you want.. as long as you at least ‘consider’ returning R.W. Pelican to his rightful place.
I mean with all these pikers filling up the comments trying to show the length of their Internet dicks..
R.W. is needed NOW more than EVER!
Time to buy some COIN…the symbol COIN. Look at the hourly chart and you will see that its almost a perfect flag. Today is the time to load up and when it gets to a buck twenty then dump…