The PPT‘s Overall Hybrid Score, as of yesterday’s close.
NOTE: I am 50% cash into the bell and it’s killing me.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,428 Blog Posts
fig
Is it me or does it seem that the hybrid score has surpassed 3 possibly prematurely this time?
There still looks like a lot of git-back still left in this market.
Huggie
The score is not only based on price action. It’s an algorithm that uses all asset classes (commod, currencies, treasuries etc) as inputs.
But look at all those 3 figures in the July move.
So what if it is a move similar to July? Will you sit on the sidelines? Or make the decision to jump back in?
I am out too…hopefully we get a quick selloff. I don’t expect much of one.
The PPT looks like it’s predicting a downward trend now.
Thanks for the update Fly!
Not really is it. It could also be pointing to a break upwards although you need more confirmation than we have as this level has been the top for a while now.
Odds favor a decent pullback tomorrow but the ‘overbought’ condition might correct with time as well as price. We were so oversold that the oscillators haven’t gone fully into overbought yet.
You hold through all that – and then sell. I was short and now long.
Nice chart – I didn’t think charts were allowed?
But since you have the chart, I notice the PPT was 3.38 on a dramatic move up and continued.
Shorts are still picking themsleves up and there complete panic has not set in yet. That will be the top.
sub 2.30 long calls have been more accurate.
As for your investment policies, I could care less.
Look what happened last time it was at 3.15.
more often than not, 3.00+ results in sell off shortly thereafter.
Fly,
What’s your take on the IMF selling 191 tons of Gold?
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hd-kESCr6kVFWIdGXsouA5p0UBYA
Please allow me to oblige Senor:
Scooped-up like a bursting Pinata full of goodies at a Toddlers B-Day Party!
Is G Brown running that shit-house over at the IMF?
Indeed!
Care to expand on that?
I think he’s referring to when Gordon Brown unloaded all of the UK’s gold reserves. Not only did he unload them, he told the market about it in advance so obviously the price plunged prior to their selling.
Tyco?
Looks like one of my dumps after airport Qdoba –
Tiger Woods to speak publicly tomorrow about the issues…
http://bit.ly/amW0Us
I have a home about 10 minutes from his. Looking forward to his words. He is very know for his behaviors in our town. Cheers!
But, hey, Lindsey Vonn is really cute!
and one of a few to make it to the bottom … Gold for US!
shorting is fun too looking forward to your first short pick! been forever…great job this last 2 yrs…allan
President Obama and Joe Biden have saved you from economic Armageddon and economic Apocalypse too. Give Joe and Barack two thumbs up.
They didn’t save anything… they just DELAYED it from occurring. And it wasn’t Obama, it was Helicopter Ben. When the day of reckoning comes, it will be much, much worse.
Really? Bama and Bitter get two thumbw down… oh no, actually 10 fingers down……
I also sold my long positions yesterday and today.
I shorted the S&P futures (/ES-Mini) at 1099.25 and more at 1097.50 today.
We have a double-top at 1100, near the halfway-back from the 1145-1040 move.
PPT says we are overbought, to an egregious degree.
that said, I expect my account to be blown to smithereens within 24 hours. Mother market is tricky like that.
Howie
You are almost certainly too early. A double top at 1100 would be the most obvious thing in the world to happen.
Everybody thinks the market is overbought….everyone expects resistance at 1100.
How about this — we bust through 1100, shorts capitulate, we burst to 1115, everyone celebrates because the long trade is back!, and we then begin a long painful decent.
Sounds more likely to me.
If we were to blast through 1100 in the next day or two then I would agree with Huggie. But if we go sideways a bit before moving above 1100 the S&P stands a much better chance of turning 1100 into solid support. Small caps have outperformed over the last week or so and small cap outperformance is a reliable “tell” of a market that wants to go higher.
I think Howie’s right about his shorts getting blow’d the fuck up soon. Never forget that Uncle Ben likes to use the inherent volatility of options expiration day to nuke the shorts. And guess what day this Friday is?
fid
Agreed, and thanks for the feedback – Bobby and Huggie.
I have a trailing stop in place, so it’s breakeven if we go higher, or 2.5″ rib-eye steaks for all if we go lower.
closed my /ES short at 1094 in the overnight session. flattening out and waiting for a clear trend.
Fly, just wanted to drop a hi so that you don’t forget me
I know what Danny will be watching tonight.
Shaun White.
I wonder if this will do any good?
PIMCO Diversified Real Asset Collective Trust
The Diversified Real Asset Collective Trust (the “Fund”) is an actively managed portfolio
designed to provide strategic exposure to three core real assets: Treasury Inflation Protected
Securities (“TIPS”), commodities and real estate. The Fund has an equal-weighted benchmark
of 1/3rd Barclays Capital U.S. TIPS Index, 1/3rd Dow Jones-UBS Commodities Index and
1/3rd Dow Jones U.S. REIT Index. The Fund is not a mutual fund. The Fund is a collective
investment trust that is exempt from registration under the Investment Company Act of 1940.
OEW is confused … first a Primary WaveC decline and now maybe a correction still in WaveB retracement!
“The market held up quite well considering the rally in the USD. Usually it’s USD up and SPX, Crude, Gold down. We’ll see how this plays out tomorrow. It’s highly unlikely that the USD can rally two days in a row without an inverse response in these other markets. The downtrend thus far looks more corrective then impulsive. Which is a good sign for the bulls. We posted three possibilities, for the short term count, on the SPX/DOW hourly charts and removed the labeling on the daily charts. The most obvious count would be an ABC down from the highs into SPX 1045 and an X wave rally underway. The second count would be Intermediate wave one down to SPX 1072, then an irregular inverse flat (SPX 1105-1045-now) for Intermediate wave two. Third we still have the i-ii-1-2 scenario on the SPX, but this has been eliminated on the DOW. This market is not acting like it’s in a Primary wave C decline now. This correction, thus far, looks exactly like the Jun/July 09 correction. When this market does roll over again we’ll get a better idea of what we are dealing with longer term. Still extremely overbought, short term, and could head lower at any time.”
In any Event Horizon, we are overbought and I’m going with Fly on his call ….
Raised cash into the close, and after 1-2 more sells tomorrow, will be holding 50% cash in both of my accounts like Fly and a few others here.
My BIDU short for “March Madness” may be well timed … we shall see gentlemen, we shall see.
On the chart, what were the PPT readings on the tops & bottoms?
bottoms around Aug 18th & Sep 3ish?
tops around Sep 22 & Feb 3ish?