Wow, days like this remind me why, deep down, I fucking hate the market, as if it was trying to steal my money. Oh shit! I think it is trying to steal my money.
Treasuries got murdered, sending rates through the roof. At the same time, the yen was strong, and the dollar was weak, while crude sold off—as did gold. Banks got boot stomped, but CRE was strong. I don’t know how long it will last, but the market is being directed by the action in CRE names. Look at the correlation between IYR and the Dow, lately. Uncanny.
In all fairness to the bulls, the market should have been “Dykstra’d” today, considering the banks were so weak.
Days like today remind me why it is so important to stick with a thesis and try not to overreact to the intra-day volatility. The market is incredibly volatile, yet within a very tight range. My guess, the market is due to make a decisive move, up or down, shortly.
Obviously, I have a multitude of long positions, so you know my bias. But, admittedly, holding bombs like LVLT remind me, in a very harsh way, how quick yesterday’s winner can become today’s loser. In hindsight, not selling LVLT was a grave error. But, I really did like the numbers posted this morning. Apparently, not too many people agree with me, at the moment. I ate rocks on this fucker today.
My positions in CROX, SONS, CECO and ERX fared okay, while other lost a percent or two.
In short, this market is one great idiot hamsterwheel, full of cocksure investors. In reality, we’re all guessing. The question is: who can guess better?
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Swine Flu death in LA. This could get nasty if this is for real. Buy drug stores WAG, RAD etc…
Indeed.
By the way great day for ALU. I took a small position in LVLT today as a tech friend of mine said they are in a bake off with LVLT in the mix for a huge contract. We will see, I hear so much bullshit that its easier to sort through the swine flu genetic structure. Bottom line Fly is for real when he talks about 4g, I can tell you from a tech stand point its going to be huge as people push for on demand video to their hand helds. Just imagine being able to watch a movie on your iPhone or Cellular card streaming while driving cross country in your Custom Series Astro Van. It truly will bridge the gap of at home and on the go internet.
This market is set to move big. It just needs a catalyst.
Obama(gangster) talks on TV tomorrow night. Check out this video, about half way through, Obama has freaking laser beam eyes!
http://tinyurl.com/d8tuvc
pig flu …if your dumb enough to buy stocks because of pig flu then your dumb enough to respond to a post on this shitty forum…..hmmm wait a minute
more people die of gun shot wounds in Detroit then in Baghdad every day
more people die of the yearly flu then will die from the swine flu
understand …. probably not …how bout I just leave my wiring instructions so you can send me your cash directly instead of wasting your kids future trading
no one here is smart … as me
man made my friends
check on:
Robert Gallo
Litton Bionetics
Anthony Falchi
Imagine being able to watch porn movies on your cell phone while driving cross country in your bullshit Astro van. Can anyone say parabolic spike in auto crashes.
Observe the daily Cruz del Muerte on the Dow and S&P. There shall be bloodshed this week.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/200904271605PR_NEWS_USPR_____CL05731.htm
1000 GM dealerships to close. That should put about 50,000 more people on unemployment.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/government-motors-to-force-over-1000.html
Don’t worry. Consumer confidence is up for the moment.
Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. Love that banana peel guy.
Dave, GM is trying to accelerate closings, over 120,000 jobs will be closed. But don’t worry Uncle Sam doesn’t seem to be too concerned with it at all. In fact they’re ok with that.
Is it me or are those UAW homos stupid dumb fucks with bricks for brains? Why the fuck would you want to own 55% of chrysler?
A million times zero is still zero….even if that IS the case, then why what is chrysler in the business of doing? I mean chrylser as an entity in itself is being owned by these dumb fucks. The same scenario with GM.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2009/04/two-los-angeles-county-deaths-possibly-related-to-swine-flu-coroner-says.html
Fuck this swine flu shit. I’m all bull, killing them that is. THe only thing I pork is your mom, sister(s), wife, and girlfriend(s). Notice it’s not “and/or”! It’s no excuse.
Listen you bull fucks, this disease is to make you faggots reflect on how shitty the economy is. Get off your banana boat and go short.
one more time “Sell in may, go away is officially on” or you can join the dark side for some major coin and leave your bs thesis a side.
RGR had good numbers . Running after hours
Specter defects to the Dems. Repubs have 40 senators. 40. four-zero. what a rump of a party. bwhahahahahahahaha
Daily summary from OEW:
“While the SPX did trade below 850 this morning the market did not follow through on the downside. Instead it rallied back to within five points of yesterdays highs before finishing lower on the day. Short term this market continues to look lower, but remains in an upper 860 to lower 850 trading range. We should get some resolution, one way or the other, tomorrow.”
I’m watching 854 and 848 as final lines of support …. meanwhile I took some off the table …. sold HIG (bot @ 6.76) and XL (bot @ 3.92).
Any one know why treasuries got killed today?
Just a spec … Fed Gov Angell said he expects a rate increase to .25 or .5 basis pts in June based on commodity inflation ….
Bot some CZZ at $3.42 (fib 61.8 retrace) for a coming retest of $5.25 … Open air above there if some catalyst helps push it (like Obama retracting the ethanol import fee) … just a spec swing play.
Tradery,
The yield curve is flattening. Very bearish…
http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/bonds/the-living-yield-curve-7923/?hpadref=1
tradery
Too much supply, not enough demand for treasuries. This will only get worse. Rates are going higher.
@ tradery
Huge supply of govt debt coming to market.
101 Billion dollars of treasuries going up for sale this week might have something to do with it.
I believe they’ve nixed the swine flu theory for the 2 LA deaths.
But hey, who needs a little sanity when you can have mass hype & hysteria over a virus.
Thank you, once again, mass media. You’re a great service to all.
Lazy, thanks, reading article now.
Goldie – so china has stopped buying our debt?
Wild Cat — but Fed is buying treasuries hand over fist so wouldn’t that suck up the supply?
Garr, thanks. I guess the fear is that it won’t go well a la UK.
@ tradery
Yes, you are right. But there will be ebbs & flows in treasury yields. Some think the feds do not want the 10 year yield to get much above 3% (we went out at 3.05% today, I believe) so now we may see them in there buying.
Still down a bit over 22k on my amzn short, 8k shares. Not trading until I figure out what to do with this POS. 82 bucks is a joke for this thing, unfortunately, at the moment, the joke is my account.
DNDN back from the dead.
Thanks Wildcat, makes sense.
The fact that the treasuries shit the swimming pool is ultimately very bearish. Problem is too many dick heads short. But still nobody wants to buy because they instinctively know there is nothing but toxic sludge a few inches down, that’s what’s backstopping this market is the Gowanus Canal. Ever get a whiff of that on a hot August evening?
Trader Y,
Even better:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf
Just remember the common wisdom is that bond traders are the smart money.
Tradery,
I saw an article earlier that demand from foreign banks to buy treasuries has been less and less for the last four auctions, so yes the Chinese are not buying as much. I cant find the article(I think it was on yahoo) but across the curve is a great website for bond commentary.
http://acrossthecurve.com/
Tradery, here is the article…
http://tiny.cc/zUatZ
Here is the quote from the article…
“Indirect bidders, a group of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 30.8%, compared to 34.6% on average at the last four auctions.”
Ignore that quote from the article at your own peril.
Just learned Chrysler has 3 times as many dealerships in U.S than Toyota..Insane state laws protecting dealerships from closure
Fuck…one of the guys here just got quarantined for potential swine flu…not worried about getting sick, but this could suck for staffing…
El Tib.. Where is here?
Great thread, thanks for the treasury answers Goldie/Lazy/Wild Cat.
And yes, I believe that too, bond traders are in general, more in the know than equity traders. Commodity traders too actually…. meaning that equity traders are bottom of the heap.
DPeezy Says:
…But hey, who needs a little sanity when you can have mass hype & hysteria over a virus.
Thank you, once again, mass media. You’re a great service to all.
I’m not speaking in defense of the mass media in general here, but bear in mind that, in the case of warnings about a communicable disease, the media message will have an effect that runs counter to the message delivered.
Specifically: warnings about the danger of a disease will result in an overall decrease of transmission as people modify their behavior; conversely, media reports underestimating a danger or giving a false all-clear signal will cause people to decrease caution and increase transmission.
As long as the media isn’t advising action that goes beyond the more thoughtful precautions from health authorities, it is just the normal !!!hype!!! with which every show on TV is presented.
Any thoughts on MPEL?
Debt/Equity @ 64% compared to competitors @ 100-300%
Cash on 3/31/09 was $755 mil and they have just priced a follow-on offering @ $4/sh which will provide another $915 mil to the balance sheet if the offering is completely sold (the offering was increased due to strong demand from Asia and US)
As of 3/31/09 they had approximately US$244 million of remaining capital expenditure and pre-opening expense budgeted to be paid before the opening of City of Dreams in early June 2009 with another $50 mil available from their construction loan if needed
Stock looked like it was headed to $6 before the pig flu hit and today’s announcement of the offering but it held up well today with a loss of
Any thoughts on MPEL?
Debt/Equity @ 64% compared to competitors @ 100-300%
Cash on 3/31/09 was $755 mil and they have just priced a follow-on offering @ $4/sh which will provide another $915 mil to the balance sheet if the offering is completely sold (the offering was increased due to strong demand from Asia and US)
As of 3/31/09 they had approximately US$244 million of remaining capital expenditure and pre-opening expense budgeted to be paid before the opening of City of Dreams in early June 2009 with another $50 mil available from their construction loan if needed
Stock looked like it was headed to $6 before the pig flu hit and today’s announcement of the offering but it held up well today with a loss of only about 20 cents ….
Is it a buy here or do you expect the offering to knock it down some more …. was looking to grab some around 4-4.15
Thanks for your ideas … sorry about the premature ejaculation above.
http://wcbstv.com/topstories/air.force.one.2.996457.html
Bullish development…
Permabull Larry Kudlow is now bearish.
Asshat of the fucking week!
Barack Obama White House for the fucking horror movie that they put on yesterday. Fucking clowns. Not only did it cost around 350k for the “Movie” it scared the shit out of everyone and caused massive panic and productivity loss. Wonder what would have happened if fuckers jumped out windows or some shit like that.
Hula – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3ul3q1PexA
Wait until NYC shuts down. Wait until schools close and parents can’t go to work. Anyone bullish here needs a head examination.
“The U.S. can expect hospitalizations and deaths, and businesses and schools should plan for a pandemic, Richard Besser, acting head of the Atlanta-based CDC, told reporters yesterday.
The swine flu outbreak in Mexico City prompted the local government yesterday to order all 35,000 restaurants shut, punishing businesses in the capital that generates 22 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.
New York, America’s largest city, has about 45 confirmed cases, most originating at St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens, Bloomberg told reporters yesterday. At P.S. 177, a public school for autistic children, 82 students have called in sick, he said. Six students are being tested at Ascension school in Manhattan’s Upper West Side, the mayor said. Most family and staff suspected of having the flu haven’t been tested, Bloomberg said.
Other Neighborhoods
Two other people, a woman in Brooklyn and a boy in the Bronx, were hospitalized with suspected cases associated with travel to Mexico, Bloomberg said. Five patients with confirmed swine flu cases have been hospitalized in the U.S., Besser said.”
Excellent summation of the current fuckery that we call the stock market.
More well-informed and reasonable comments from intelligent, experienced investors regarding the SEC’s possible reintroduction of an uptick rule.
Subject: File No. S7-08-09
From: John Emmert
April 28, 2009
I believe the removal of the uptick rule during the summer of 2007 has hurt the individual long investor and benefited short sellers and hedge funds. Naked short selling is easily done since those shorting stocks have 13 days to cover vs. 3 days for longs.
Individual stocks like Energy Conversion Devices ENER have been pounded by naked short sellers hurting the individual investor and benefiting the hedge funds.
The uptick rule should be reinstated and all trades should have only 3 days to cover. This would help to bring the market back to a level playing field.
This guy never disappoints.
“Slumdwellers” Hah!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6186585.ece
JLL misses big. Analysts expected .07 a share and they come in with numbers at a loss of 1.78 a share. Wow!
For those of you who don’t know, JLL is one of the world’s largest real estate service companies.
With the kind of market fuckery that is taking place lately I would not be surprised if the stock shrugs this off.
IMO commercial RE is fucked. It is just a matter of time.
Hopefully this news is good for my SRS position
“In short, this market is one great idiot hamsterwheel, full of cocksure investors. In reality, we’re all guessing. The question is: who can guess better?”
——————————————————
the question is who can lose less when wrong and make more when right
Or course, Mr. Selchau never mentions how his fellow bankers have single-handedly brought the USA to its knees. Notice the shortsellers are now the reason that the taxpayers are bailing out banks, according to Mr. Selchau.
Subject: File No. S7-08-09
From: Timothy B Selchau
Affiliation: VP – California Bank Trust
April 28, 2009
Dear Chairman Shapiro:
I believe very strongly that the uptick rule for all short sales should be immediately reinstituted. The financial industry has been needlessly harmed by reckless shortselling which has directly lead to taxpayers needing to invest billions of dollars to recapitalize the banking industry.
I also believe that Exchange Traded Funds such as the SKF should be immediately banned. These leveraged funds are of no benefit to average investors and have been a major cause of the huge losses in market value in our banking system. These types of ETF’s need to be eliminated so that hedge funds will have less of a negative effect on the market.
Gappingandyapping.
Everyones a fucking pussy in NYC now. You have your head so far up Rush’s ass you cant tell that it was a mistake down the chain of command and Obama didnt even know about the mission.
If something fucked up happens its because of Obama. Jeez nothing will satisfy you teabagging fuckers.
SKF is kinda goofy these days anyways.
Pete: Eat a dick. Calling people pussies because two planes killed 3000 people is fucking disgusting, yet I would expect none less from your IQ range. And for the record I voted for Ron Paul.
Wood,
Forget the SEC comments, I just finished listening to an otherwise rational person tell me with a straight face:
“Swine flu was planned. Obama is a Muslim and he wants to destroy the pork industry – so he releases swine flu from a secret gov’t lab. He then arranges with Mexico to allow for easy travel with terrorist nations. The Muslims are moving to Mexico to destroy their economy. They will then have free access to US borders when Obama eases travel restrictions with Mexico in an attempt to help their economy. You will then see Muslims pour over the border causing chaos and attacking us on a weekly basis. Oh, and all of this was possible because Clinton ignored Bin Laden.”
I seriously did not know what to say AT ALL. WTF???
Ignorance is clearly already a pandemic of epic proportions.
an otherwise rational person tell me with a straight face
I think you need to readjust your assessment of that person lazy.
On the other hand – that takes the cake for being the nuttiest theory outside of Alex Jones I’ve heard all year.
Bravo.
Hey Pete,
Go fuck yer dragon.
___
Lazy, you’re right, that takes the cake. The SEC/uptick is obviously the least of my concerns.
By the way, I’m stuck at work…with no access to my data or tools…thus, the comment spamming of Fly’s blog.
ETFC PNRA BWLD all hammered AH. vicious on ETFC.
Dude I live in NYC and I was laughing my ass off to how people reacted. I am not laughing about 9/11 dont mix my words up. I am reacting to the dumbfucks running on the ground worried that a 747 would actually hit them.
They have been so brainwashed. I hope they permit airplanes to fly over NYC someday because this is freaking rediculous. All they had to do was turn on the radio or turn on the tv and they would have gotten the notice that its preplanned.
I also wanted Ron Paul to win.. I donated to his campaign and now I get these liberty emails every other week. That is my main regret for donating to his campaign.
Oh and if you think I am the only one that thinks this, then go read what people around the world and outside the northeast think.
I just read what I wrote in my initial post and it was a little harsh. I apolgize for being rude to you gapnyap. Sometimes I write things that arent supposed to be taken too seriously and its taken the wrong way.
Dont be offended. I didnt mean to offend u if I did.
If you follow the mainstream media, which is most definitely controlled by long-time international central banking families with political agendas, you by default subscribe to the paradigm they create.
Without another mass media, there is no other paradigm to turn to, as an alternative.
You can simply not listen or watch, but everyone around you subscribes to the fabricated paradigm. So you need to isolate yourself from others to not be affected by the fabricated paradigm.
Times are hard, that life must be lived in such a manner. It is shameful that those in power so willfully allow their deep, untamed animal drives to regularly over-rule their higher faculties.
And if you believe ANY of that, I’ve got a bridge in lower Manhattan that Pete has never seen to lease to you- dirt cheap, no tolls yet.
___
It would have been too easy to secure the fucking Border with Mexico years ago..this is only the beginning of yet another chapter in the Rise and Fall of America..dumb corrupt fucking politicians on Both sides..sickening, and the citizens ? 40% self absorbed dreamers 30% illiterates and illegals, the remaining 30% had better hope for pure Darwinism or our country is fucked, actually that would be more fucked
“Ignorance is clearly already a pandemic of epic proportions.”
already? always has, always will..
Fricken 15% pop in my portfolio today on heavy volume in the stem cell R&D and some utilities helped out too. I’m determined to achieve the same level of victory as last year.
I’m too cynical … I can’t see why the air force wouldn’t want to make it public for obvious reasons unless they were testing some cloaking device, checking on a spy operation in the city or wanted someone to think the POTUS was in that plane. Just me, but I believe in god and ufo’s too.
wood wrote:
By the way, I’m stuck at work…with no access to my data or tools…thus, the comment spamming of Fly’s blog.
Ah ha! You are soooo busted. Spam is made from pork. You clearly are part of the great conspiracy to decimate the world’s population of worshipers of the God of Abraham. Well, the other worshipers of the God of Abraham. No, not them, the other other worshipers of the God of Abraham.
Mel Gibson tried to warn us. No, wait, it was Mel Blanc.
SwineFlu Ad Infinitum
lol! “Twilight7531:I fell down the stairs and there was a crack and a jagged white thing is sticking out of my are guys is this swine flu?”
“Oliver Stone will rejoin Michael Douglas to direct a sequel to “Wall Street,” the Oscar-winning film that made famous the phrase, “Greed is good.” Douglas, 64, will return as the unscrupulous Gordon Gekko for the film in development at News Corp.’s Twentieth Century Fox, studio spokesman Gregg Brilliant said today. Hollywood is looking to Wall Street for villains to tap the public’s anger over the recession.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZl0WskGBgcE