But the stock market is cheap, right?
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,441 Blog Posts
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Fly, I can’t find a single stock right now that is oversold. Nothing, of course the short etf’s.
Any thoughts, just wondering because I know your not touching anything.
So go buy everything.
I feel the short coming and standing by for your knowledge!
How about we do some DUG once again
Extravagance is getting sucked out of society on the high end too.
I am surprised Americans have not gone crazy and started shooting Executives and Stockbrokers.
Huh?
From the good news economist. I need to ballast myself by going over there every time I visit IBC.
Hey Moe is this true. You hail from these parts, right?
In another sign that the US economy is turning the corner, the San Francisco housing market has almost instantly become hot.
Bay Area CBS News 5 reports “there are now signs of a serious real estate rebound in San Francisco.” Their news story headline? “Mini-Boom.”
“This is not some kind of spin from the real estate brokers. We absolutely have hard numbers to back this up,” claims reporter Hank Plante of News 5. “In the last 2 weeks in San Francisco there have been more homes sold than in the previous 6 months.”
One 40-year veteran agent claims he has never seen activity like he saw last week. On one home alone he received 42 offers. That house sold for $100,000 over the listing price.
Another house in the same neighborhood had 10 offers on it. It was listed for $525,000 and just sold for $608,000. And Plante reports several more examples of almost instant sales in this resurgent market with none of the examples being foreclosures.
Real estate expert Brendon DeSimone claims that evidently, “buyers have been waiting, they’ve been saving their money and waiting. The foreclosures have come and driven the prices down. With affordable monthly payments now, buyers are coming back in.”
With those low prices, “pent up demand has now been unleashed, even at the high-end,” continued Plante. For instance, waterfront real estate developer Alan Mark describes their “amazing run since the beginning of the year. We’ve had 50 [high-end waterfront condo] sales in 2009 and 30 in the last 30 days.”
The scrap yards are always busy in California due to the illegal immigrants from Mexico. This is nothing more than media sensationalism. Congrats, you fell for it.
Fly,
Thanks for the “Fly Story” series Im really enjoying it. I look forward to reading about how the fly conquers the internets.
Ripe
Thanks.
No more Fly Stories for awhile. I have shit to do.
You’re still not short, Fly? This fucker’s fixin’ to roll over. Get yer ass in the pool.
Add this to your short list, Fly: AIPC. It’s been bumping up against $33.50 for weeks and it’s running on fumes. Plus, American’s are sick and fucking tired of spaghetti and what not. Pasta is now the cuisine of the rich folk like yourself. The everyman can’t afford AIPC’s overpriced fare. They’ve traded down to Banquet pot pies and dumpster garbage.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=7111098&page=1
WTF are you tawkin’ aboud, Ritchie?
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Friggin’ Nova givin’ me a slight heart attack, ovah heah. Got ’em in my Final Four, dammit.
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Come now, Jake. You know they’re in Pitts’ bracket and Pitt is the class of the tourney. You need to get long Pitt whilest you still can, sir.
The ABC news story above (from Fly’s brother) reminds me of this book I read several months ago.
http://www.amazon.com/How-Starbucks-Saved-Life-Privilege/dp/1592402860
Read it and you will appreciate what you have.
Fly’s Much Less Intelligent Brother,
What kind of guy mortgages his entire families future to strike out on a venture such as that. They found themselves with NO SAVINGS after the shit storm hit? NO FUCKING SAVINGS? Nothing? How can you let it ALL ride with no safety net. Nothing? I’ve always wondered how people can make millions a year and end up broke. Fucking how!? I feel for anyone suffering though this mess. I haven’t the heart to kick elderly down flights of stairs because of their infirmity, as is so prevalent in in your family (what, with being Fly’s Little Brother and all). But apparently some people are utterly (nod of the head to Zach Karabell) braindead.
Did you check out the dusty jet skis in the (soon to be foreclosed) garage? Tee hee!
Those jet skis were forced upon those poor unsuspecting saps by a predatory lender.
The guy on the Ontario, CA video totally forgot to mention….
That whole sector of California…including:
San Bernardino County (Riverside, Ontario, San Bernadino) and the nearby Coachella Valley: (Coachella, Indio, La Quinta, Indian Wells, Rancho Mirage, Palm Desert, Cathedral City, Palm Springs) From dates palms to greasy fists…with really rich golfers…who have no clue who they are surrounded by…in-between.
HAS NO WATER!.
I MEAN FUCKED ON H20, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON “NO”
The So-Cal War of the Worlds is gonna be about WATER, baby!
..and the illegals have been doing the metal thing like that for years, it is a sub-culture in California. That is why I call it Mexifornia, because it really is.
As for the boarded-up houses. They look like circa 1960-70 stick built homes. Those are all over the place in in the “Inland Empire”
The people that live closer to the ocean have been calling that area “The armpit of southern California” since I was a kid.
P.S.: If you live in California, DO NOT move to Oregon.
Junk- two problems with Pitt.
1) Your coach is a Tourney choker.
2) Pitt hinges on Blair being on the floor. He fouls out? You’re done like Jacques Bordon.
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I live in California and the first sign of that in my neighborhood and I’m gonna use the coils from my box springs to make a security fence… and grow grapes on them.
That video was a waste of time. That shit has been going on for years. Funny how society had the luxury to ignore the poor but now face with it themselves this stupid videos are popping up all over the place. I been poor, really poor. This video proves nothing.
From the article J quoted:
“We absolutely have hard numbers to back this up,” claims reporter Hank Plante of News 5. “In the last 2 weeks in San Francisco there have been more homes sold than in the previous 6 months.”
That’s a moroonic misquote. What the data says is that more sales have closed in the past 2 weeks than in any 2-week period during the last 6 months.
Also from the article:
One 40-year veteran agent claims he has never seen activity like he saw last week. On one home alone he received 42 offers. That house sold for $100,000 over the listing price.
Per local real estate blogs, that home was listed far below market. Looks like it was just a marketing ploy.
Sorry, Saint Francis has not delivered any miracles.
Here’s hoping whomever is posting as “Barney Frank” up there is a regular, ’cause that was some funny shit.
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No room for the jet skis here
BTW Fuck Oil again!!! XOM is rolling over. DUG BFTO!!
Did somebody important die today? This whole iBankCoin thing that was somewhat hilarious and always uplifting seems to be at a funeral. Wake up! What happened today that wasn’t a good day of trading? A lot of impatience being sensed here. The Fly has things to do so everybody takes a day? There was once a movie made upon these times… I think it was called “Get Shorty”
JFF
The annual 12 vs 5 upset has happened. The Hilltoppers win. March Madness is now official.
Oh, Almost forgot.
True to his predictive abilities the dog was boasting about how short of gold he was on the morning of the Fed’s action. that was when gold was 65 bucks lower.
Dog, are you still short? “How is that working for ya?” To put it in the unique vernacular you seem to have introduced here.
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Thanks Ottnot. Nice to get the real pic then.
that really just came across as a feel good, lets make california feel ok, propaganda display. obama the whole show, wrap with garth brooks? lets party like its 1992, everything’s great! except unfortunately the internet/pc/cell phone boom has already happened. the wind farm bubble just doesn’t have that GIN OH SAY QHUA {SP}
All due respect, but I don’t even consider that one an upset. The spread (in seeding) should have been a lot narrower for those two.
I would have considered a VCU win over UCLA a lot bigger upset, as both those teams were properly seeded at 11 and 6, respectively.
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Once again, CNBC (other random country versions) are not quite as much the pom pom cheer fest we have with the US version.
First few videos do a pretty good job of explaining why Danny will eventually see his shorts pay off in spades (if his nuts can hold on long enough).
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29769858
notice – no mention of “mus-terd seeds” here.
Whoever was on this board on wednesday when the fed announced their market fuckery, you saw that I immediately posted my buys of GLD, and TBT along with short SPY.
America is basically bankrupt. Hyperinflation is coming.
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation
Yes. I am a witness to T Moe and his buys.
In fact I said to go with the GLD as the Fed is monetizing debt but I said to hold off on the TBT for about a week as “I tried it at the last meeting and had my head handed to me.”
The government’s finances not only are out of control, but the actual deficit is not containable. Put into perspective, if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security) other than for Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would be showing an annual deficit.
And Obama says he will cut the deficit in half. How???????????
Taxing hikes to 80% or %90 on the super rich? The precedent was set yesterday in the vote to tax bonuses in the house. If passed into law would’t this law be expost facto? Will it hold up in the courts? what about the sanctity of a contract that was written a year before the collapse? This is merely a form of Marxism IMO.
Sure I don’t want our money used to pay bonuses on WallStreet, but I did not want our money used to bailout failing banks and companies in the first place. They are paying and protecting each other in washington and Wall st. When will the public wake up and realize that they are leading us into disaster.
As Abbie Hoffman used to say “Better red than dead” comrade T Moe.
Answer to question about public waking up.
Never. The public is too busy watching American Idol and Oprah and getting their news from uber lefty Jon Stewart.
Invest accordingly.
FLY….if you read this before a new thread,
I want your take on this.
The commodities area is in play now with the recent Fed fuckery.
would you play an individual stock like FCX (copper seems to be going up) or just play the UYM?
thanks.
Moe:
It won’t get passed the courts i don’t think. But yes, it does set a dangerous example. It’s a rogue congress with a rogue prez now. These guys are populist nut cases. At least with bill Clinton he knew nothing about economics and only cared about Bill which meant that he found economic religion pretty quickly. this guy was raised an ideologue and will always remain one no matter what. His entire life from the cradle to adulthood was all about radical politics.
He is impervious to the laws of economics which eventually will be his undoing.
However there is one thing the congressional Dem(olition) party fears and that is the polls. And the generic polls are starting to show the Dem(olitions) in more than a little trouble. they’ll soon start to respect the polls.
Goldman to hold conference call about their exposure to AIG. Should we expect anything but lies? My guess is they will probably claim no more exposure to the CDS with AIG knowing well that AIG will not be able to pay the rest of claims like they did under the table last time. Call will be interesting
j
AUD/USD heading back to 72?
Done for the AM.
Thanks SMH.
Guys quick question, thoughts on SKF? I own it at 132 and am wondering what to do with it. My position is light but do you think the banks need to take a breather? I have made a fucking boatload of coin (32% on my entire portfolio) in the past 6 days and need to calm my beta down by getting flat. I am heavily short HME with a stop at break even but trying to read this market is impossible. I envy Fly in cash at this point. Do you guys technically think we have to retest?
Funny you should ask that Moe..
I just added to my Aussie position right here. Yea I think it could make it up there. However keep stops. I have my stop now at my break even of 6750 with the recent purchase..
I’m also long Aussie/yen, primarily because I wanna be short yen against something and the Aussie is as good as anything seeing it’s unlikely that we’ll follow down to zero rates anytime soon. I think they will have to monetize even more than they are doing.
However never lose sight of the fact that Aussie is a piece of shit and the only thing holding it up is the fact that the US and the rest of them are intent on fucking up their currencies for a while.
Keep an eye on Euro/ Aussie , Moe.
It seems to love 1.9700 ish as the big figure.. It goes lower and it goes back up. It goes higher and it comes back down. It’s a good pointer of what to do with the Aussie and other related stuff.
Thanks j
Good insight
Gapping Andy, I think the market has made its way to the very center of the see-saw, and it will remain there until news (or fuckery) from either a big company or the “market manipulators” (I mean the FED) says something or reports something…
depending on the news, good or bad will determine which direction it will go, either to the high side or slide to the low side.
my 2 cents worth is all is dependent on upcoming news.
the banks are full of shit, and are lying when they say they are making money all of a fucking sudden…it just happens to be what the public wants to hear….. yeh, and I will announce right now that from this day forward it will only rain on tuesdays and thursdays so everyone can plan trips on every weekend without any worries, the weekends from here on out will all be sunny……
we are in limbo and waiting on news, but I can’t see anything positive about anything whatsoever.
The Dept Of Defense briefed the president this morning and told OBAMA that two Brazilian soldiers were killed in Iraq. To everyone’s surprise, all the color drained from Obama’s face. Then he collapsed onto his desk, head in his hands, visibly shaken, almost in tears.
Finally, he composed himself and asked, ‘Just how many is a brazilian?’ This is especially enlightening since he obviously has no understanding of billion or trillion either.
TraderJoe, that’s great…..
Reality bites.
Artist:
Leaving aside the marks, because we really don’t know what the fuck is going on there from last quarter in terms of tier 2 and 3 assets (do you know?), the banks are making fucking huge spread margins on their books at the moment.
In fact if you could buy a bank with a clean balance sheet it would actually be the best business going. Buy professional deposits and stuff the bank with high return quality bonds and if you matched duration you wouldn’t need to mark.
Work it out. Corporate loans can be bought at 8 to 9% while mortgages are going for 5 ish. Blend the spread and say they’re making 6% across their books. The liability side, their deposits are probably funding at 1.5%
Now take the leverage up to 13:1 which is where they are for the most part which means $1 million of capital is $13 million of leverage
Work out the return on capital.
$13 million *5% = $650,000/1,000,000 (equity) = 65%.
That’s right, it’s 65% return on capital. Do you have a business producing those sorts of freaking margins at the moment? Do you know of any?
That’s why, if the marks haven’t been fucked again- and it doesn’t look as though they were damaged all that much this quarter- the banksters saying they are profitable and having a good quarter could actually be real enough.
Don’t lose sight of the fact the the Fed has gone all out to replenish capital by trying to give the banks huge margins on their spreads. It may be a lost cause or then again they may win out.
It’s always darkest before the dawn. Either that or chairman Mao takes over and you’re fucked forever.
Mars.
Its also always darkest before it goes pitch black.
Having done some work with The Special Olympics (See Leno last night) in the past I would say replace the clowns in DC with some of these kids.
Much smarter and more fun.
KIM and VNO getting raped. again I say commercial RE is fucked
J, true, they are borrowing at zero and loaning at 5+ that is their saving grace. we will see when earnings come out.
but lets not forget the continued losses on foreclosures.
I am prepared for a little fuckery though. I absolutely do not trust anything that comes out of any of these asshat CEO’s mouths. I mean look, Pandit vowed and swore on record at the senate hearing 2 months ago that Citi would never spend money frivolously until all was righted with the taxpayers….and bamm here we have the asshole spending 10 million on an office remodel for the top executives…..now granted 10 million is nothing to Citi, but it is the point, not the amount, and at this time, does Citi need a new 10 million dollar remodel? I mean fuck, 10 million would buy a 12,000 sq. ft mansion on 25 acres here in NC with a 5000 sq. ft. guest house.
and what are they getting…. a office remodel?
and more-over, it is the bullshit backdoor shananigans that makes me not trust any of the cocksuckers……
but we will see soon…….
Artist.
Have you ever costed an remodeling in NYC, especially a commercial one? It’s fucking unbelievably expensive. After all the shit that’s gone on, you can be sure the changes they are proposing are probably necessary. They won’t have expensive rugs in there, by the way.
VNO getting reamed because their boy Jarvis from Mississippi State, could not come through yesterday against Washington U.
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FWIW — UUP (dollar index) just filled it’s gap at $24.24.
I expect it to turn down again here, soon.
Artist I agree
Don’t believe these assholes. Bear said they did not need more money, so did Merrill, so did Wachovia, so did Lehman
None of them know what the fuck is going on just like everyone else. If the job picture does not improve more people will lose their homes and more defaults will come. The CDO’s will continue to collapse and the CDS contracts will not be able to be paid. The banking system is insolvent.
Fly I can’t short the Reverse Horsemen of Sure Fire Death.
HELP ME!
Fly looks like you might be going down today in the tourney. Do you have any commentary on this?
So far my SONC is holding up, trying to grind it out against Alpha until the end.
SFLY getting some volume
Could this be the 9 breakout I’ve been promising?
New Michael Lewis article
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_lewis&sid=atlHxXH7FweQ
ANCI trying a little @ 7.88
Trader Joe, that was funny!
Trader Joe, That’s a Bush joke. Not as funny with a President who is articulate.
GS starting to move
oil rally losing steam..perhaps…taking on some DUG here.
Sue Herrara looks like a bloated easter egg..fat pig..who has bang her ..poor bastard
DVAX started at Wedbush @ Buy
over $1by next week
Trader Joe, That’s a Bush joke. Not as funny with a President who is articulate.
But it works for those who know he’s a marionette.
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