Before I go nuts, go check out Jon Stewart’s attack on CNBC, an instant classic.
As you see from the early morning tape, banks and commercial re are getting hit again. But, after having extensive discussions with my Voodoo Doctor, I must report to you that it is a suckers bet to short stocks down here. Look, there are plenty of asshole companies that are going all the way to zero. However, before that happens, we will have a rally that will punch your jaw loose. Do you hear me you fucking faggots?
With that being said, “The Fly” is conducting himself like a gentleman, of the distinguished variety, this morning. I have a nice warm cup of Earl Grey tea and crumpets by my side; and I am pretending to be an avid reader of The Financial Times. Also, at the present, I am in a 70%+ cash position, with a long bias.
Here’s what you need to watch:
GE and WFC.
If both of those fuckers go green, this market will chop the cocks off those who are short. If not, oh well, it was nice knowing you.
With my money, I will not add to any longs, unless of course an insane buying opportunity presents itself. And, there is no fucking way I am shorting down here, not even with Howard’s money.
NOTE: Currently, I have long positions in UYM, TNA, ISRG, CY and JRJC.
UPDATE: Back in January, I penned an article, “New Stocks to Zero.” How am I doing on that Godly list so far?
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
The Fly is God.
Top picks at the moment: ADBE and DXO long term, TNA very short term.
GE, WFC, and JPM
So based on you’re thesis I should be shorting SKF.
It’s okay, I don’t need my face.
Hey Fly, careful with that small cap ETF you bought yesterday. Pretty soon C will be in there 🙂
The Fly is god
Great stuff from Jon Stewart. Thanks for posting that, Fly.
Great advice Fly, you are The Master.
Fly-
Thank you for telling me to cover some of my shorts at the close on Monday. I spent Tuesday and yesterday counting coin. I continue to hold some SRS TWM, SPY shorts and DUG as I have a low cost basis on the SPY, SRS and TWM. I jumped on the DUG yesterday right before the close. I will continue to hold my ietf’s to keep me interested in the game. I sit on 85% cash waiting to attack. This is a bullshit rally, but it could knock the snot out of us bears if some get nervous and start mad covering. I just don’t see much buying going on here.
What do you think about the DUG? XOM to 55?
Go SRS go you bad mother fucker
XOM is screwed.
Done again.
Need to pack and get out of here.
Off to watch my kid try and win two college golf tournaments in a row up in Tallahasse (FSU Invitaional).
Happy trading and just make sure the NYSE is still here when I get back.
PS Watch GS to pull up financials and SMH is an animal.
GE executives lying about their situation in a frantic move to prop up their stock price…… morons will buy only to find out later they (executives) were lying as they continue to get wiped out. As we know, GE has no hope in righting the listing ship, soon to be sinking ship.
They, the executives of GE got so greedy they shot their own foot.
GE, once one of the biggest companies in the world, just wasn’t big enough for these greedy ass GE executives. They were not satisfied having the biggest company in the world, they would only be satisfied being the biggest company by market cap of the entire cosmos.
So, what better way to pull it off than become a bank to finance their shit to people who could not pay for it, then while becoming a bank “hey” they said. “lets lever 100 to 1 and buy these mortgage backed securities”
And now they find themselves here.
So GE will have days where it goes up but only because of stupid fuckers who are trying to make a quick buck hoping they can get in and out before the rest of the crowd wakes up and shorts it again.
GE will have to be broken up to survive this. They will have to have all the finance arm side broken away and marked as a total loss. Then they will have their industrial division side (jet engines, electrical motors etc.) and then their consumer goods side (light bulbs, toster ovens etc.) and their medical division side.
Outside of this, short it to .50 cents then cover, take your profits, buy a GE blender, go make yourself a pina-colada and enjoy.
Covered the entire XOM position. Made a little milk money there. Looking to short again in the low 70’s
Doubled up on DIA, little pain here. Will double again @~$64
Long coupla MET for a trade.
Coupla puts on dia for protection.
GLTA
T MOE sells some more SRS at 94. still going to hold a little waiting for 100
The Fly is wrong no rally today. More pain.
Its very very tough not to short here Fly. GM going to zero and C looking like its in trouble again.
I think we need another mark to market rumor so we can reload on the fin shorts
the daily show treatment of cnbc was fantastic. everyone should watch it each day as a reminder.
what about if GE join WFC in the negative territory? Still no downside?
Buy UUP and DRR..short FXE
Western European nations have lent huge sums to the Baltic states but it’s not enough. The split is threatening to tear apart the Euro union. And the euro, shows it. The US dollar isn’t strong on its own and it’s not yet reflecting the US recession and the huge Federal Reserve Note creation. But the dollar is the mirror image of the weak euro. As the euro sinks, the dollar rises against the euro and most other currencies — the dollar looks like a hero. It’s a false hero. But the so-called “strong dollar” works against gold, which slides as the dollar rises — gold is priced in the “strong dollar”.
T MOE shorts ESI for s short term trade
Covered yesterday’s JWN short from 13.50 @ 12.50.
still not one credible reason for ramp…but still a huge lack of shrs available to short…taking profits.
Shorted bank of KIM at the close yesterday and am now sitting on a week’s nut and wondering whether to cover or let greed take its course…
I’m going to fade the Fly’s recommendations. I’ll kiss his ass if I’m wrong.
Traderbob
damn, anybody go short BEN with that Citi ‘Top Sell’ call after hours yesterday ?
Who gets to $5 first GE or WFC?
Fly – I will rephrase my question, for the Jews among us (thx KC); you got a PPT deal that we can try it for one month and that money can go towards one year if we like?
====== also, I will post a piece from Brian Reynolds, who is a credit expert .. he is a must read. There is pressure brewing in the credit market that may take the market down to 600ish. You can follow the pressure via HYG.
Brian F. Reynolds, CFA
Chief Market Strategist
Thursday March 5, 2009
Stocks Want To Rally, Though Credit Keeps Getting Hit
Summary
-Stocks remain oversold and are vulnerable to a bounce in the next few weeks
-But, credit continues to get hit in the wake of last month’ bear raid
-The momentum players who bought into the junk rebound at the end of last year may be on the verge of bailing out
Stocks remain short-term oversold, and thus remain likely to have a bounce in the next few weeks. We know stock investors badly want to take stocks up, even to the point of staging a brief rally the other day when the President suggested they were a good buy. Yet credit continues to get hit, almost day after day, since the credit bears got the ball rolling last month with the pressure they applied to the CDS’s of the U.S.
Junk spreads have now widened more than 225 basis points in the month since the credit bears began applying the pressure to the U.S. CDS’s. That’s the equivalent of 9 Fed tightenings, and wipes out all of the improvement of this year, and about 1/3 of the improvement since the credit bears “rang the register” and did some temporary short covering in December, locking in some profits on an extraordinary year.
The momentum investors who were suckered into buying junk in December by the bears’ temporary short covering continue to bail out of junk, as illustrated by HYG, which purports to be a junk bond ETF. We’ve shown how the index it attempts to track is a lousy measure of junk bonds (it currently yields almost 1/3 less than the average junk bond), and the share price does a lousy job of tracking that lousy index.
We showed how the momentum traders took this purported ETF to a 16% premium at the start of the year, and have been disappointedly selling since.
Last week, we wrote that this meant that this was the first time that momentum investors have had an impact on the credit market. It wasn’t a huge impact, but at the margin, it got the media excited about the improvement in credit to start the year, and has led to disillusionment that the improvement has reversed, even though we pointed out that it would only be temporary when it began.
We also wrote last week that, with the new money that has gone into junk funds now underwater, there is the potential for it to flee, and thus worsen the downturn in credit. It looks like that is beginning to happen.
Our first chart shows the shares outstanding of the HYG. It is not a lot relative to the size of the junk market but, taken in combination with the flows into similar funds, it does have some significance at the margin.
We can see how the buying went parabolic in December after the credit bears temporarily covered. That has begun to turn down with the drop in prices this year, but many who bought are still trapped in this.
The second chart shows the price of HYG. It is down near its all-time low. (Interestingly, we noted that junk has only given up 1/3 of its gains, which shows how poor a job HYG does of being an ETF.)
If HYG breaks to a new low, the likelihood of the recent buyers dumping their shares increases. So, at the margin, there is the potential for the momentum investors to make things worse.
Conclusion
As a result of the hammering of credit, we are lowering our credit fear/greed indices 2 notches to -2.2 on a scale that originally went from 0-10.
This is the first time we’ve lowered it this year. That’s because we didn’t raise it much and kept it low during the credit improvement because, well, we wrote a column shortly after the buying began that was titled “The Wrong People Are Buying Credit” when it became apparent that it was the momentum players doing the buying. So, despite the apparent improvement, we kept saying that the credit market continues to point to 600 as fair value for the S&P.
So, stocks remain short-term oversold and are vulnerable to a bounce in the next few weeks. But the credit market is telling us (as it has for the last 1.5 years) that any bounce will be just that, a bounce. And, we’re on the verge of more selling in junk.
mrkcbill is clinically depressed knowing he’ll never realize his dream of becoming a professional ballerina.
We need a large volume downside flush out. I will than buy TNA and call it a TITS AND ASS trade. If the SPY breaks 68/69 it may happen.
Juice:
Your weird accounting request is simply not worth my while. If you think reading this site has not been worth a measly 49.95 for one month, in order to “check out the ppt,” then Atlantis will rise again with Hitler as its leader.
Tough tape here. All of the banks and insurance stocks are dead on a vine. Until we see respite in wfc, usb, met, all etc, stay away from longs.
“Do you hear me you fucking faggots?”
I laugh my ass off every time you say that. Classic.
Jed is running Microsoft Me with 512 K of Ram
I got tricked out of covering my shorts heavy in the green yesterday. They were profitable, but still…..ow.
Bout time you linked to some worthy media…
-DT
Bulls are dead. Plain and simple. If there is a retracement, short at will. SPX to 555 eventually
GE about to give up the ghost
FOOP!!
Here….comes….your…..reversal.
“Atlantis will rise again with Hitler as its leader”
You thieving bastard!
You’re stealing my movie ideas!
Whats so weird about that request in lieu of a free trial?
Seems reasonable, but I’ll do it your way if you insist on discriminating against the Jew in us Jews.
disclaimer : I am not a practioning semite … I don’t go for that nonsense of truth mixed with fiction … and I am not a self-hating Jew, as my relatives have labelled me.
Another bottom caller. If you don’t short the market, short this pundit!
This market doesn’t look like stopping.
We’re seeing a validation of the S&P below 700 ish here.
Wow, it’s going to take one heck of a catalyst to get us turned around here. This smells like one of those crazy days from last yr, except there will not be a big bounce tomorrow
The $RUT looks good here but the NDX has a long ways to go.
Howard– needs to do a vid of men in white jumpsuits carrying Kudlow off the CNBC set….kicking and screaming, foaming at the mouth….mustard seeds…Dick Bove I like what your saying…..mustard seeds….I love this country!!!!
Funny how Kudlow et al talks about GE …It’s a 100 yr old company! …. uh huh…. let’s talk about Bethlehem Steel then. Nobody cried about that one and Wilbur Ross laughed all the way to the bank. Fuck ’em all.
ps. I am originally from Bethlehem so it’s a bit personal. I saw LOTS of pain…people screwed out of pensions, insurance, etc. They had armed guards at the “explanation session” at the high school… armed guards for a bunch of 70 and 80 year olds.
From Dow Theory: I was a bit surprised to see a full-page ad for “US Treasury gold” in today’s USA Today. The subtitle was “Final offer, public offering Vault USAT 29.” Further, the ad states, “gold breaks 1000 an ounce, experts predict over 2000 an ounce.” This is the sort of fraudulent gibberish that is calculated to suck the public into gold.
From Alphalobo: I agree..short gold on all moves higher.
Now we are fucked. SnP 500 here we come.
watch GE to break support from yesterday around 6.61-6.58 . It’s rebounded a little but not really going anywhere. GE, JPM, WFC were key telling stocks for yesterday’s SPY action
C’mon over here and get some 1 buck chuck bitches
Fly have you cut TNA loose yet?
I would like to stuff fire ants up Jon’s nostrils
….
Anybody else see it land on 6666….nice
666 is not the mark of the beast
It was a translating error. I believe it’s actually 668
Google this $hit
AMR getting it’s wobbly parts fondled by homosexual smurfs.
CNBC is nothing more than money whores and gossip columnists. I am so sick of this CNBC bullshit TV show.
FLY, since Danny has YET to insert ape raped and clown raped and godzilla raped in the dictionary.
I have to ask:
You told me ape raped is for high dollar stocks like XOM and clown raped is for low dollar stocks like SBUX.
and if say XOM falls from 70.00 to 60.00 is was ape raped.
If SBUX falls from 8.70 to 5.70 is was clown raped.
my question is where is the line between an ape rape and a clown rape? 50.00? 45.00? 40.00?
Say XOM falls to 50.00, then to 40.00, then to 12.00, where in the fall does XOM go from officially being ape raped to officially being clown raped?
with the market in it’s current state, these are techincal questions I really feel I need to have clarified.
thanks in advance.
Fly is your latest TNA play here?
Are you all sitting down? RBS economic research unit in London who isn’t that bad is suggesting that tomorrows jobs number could be -850,000.
Something like that is just too horrible to think about.
I got in on TZA at 95.5 this morning. I think the Dow closes below 6600 today.. maybe lower to 6400 tomorrow. With a massive rally next week on a Government condoned blind eye (fraud) by easing Mark-to-Market next week.
GE specialist for 03/05/09 clearly has marching orders to keep it green at all costs. Bid is flooded every tick into the red.
KO just keeps dropping
J, alot of the jobs numbers are mexicans quiting and going back to mexico to join the drug mobs. the mob is offering good pay and a dental plan, they are swiming back over the rio grande in a southward direction this time.
FLY – Please change the headline to ‘Short Here ‘ . We are headed lower folks. Its easy to see. No bounce coming. XLF to low $5s by next week. SKF to $300 + , FAZ to $150+
elimination of mark-to-market is just a fairytale
CAP,
I would hate to be on the wrong side of those trades if the Goverment fucks with Mark-to-Market on or floats a rumor prior to the March 12th committee meeting. I think this week we are head to around 6400.. then we bounce on obvious manipulation.
Citigroup under a buck.
i must say, I look forward every day to the ripostes between jed and mrkcbill.
‘Windows ME with 512K’
brilliant!
I will buy KO Buffett style at $30 – probably from the great man himself, pants round his ankles, hair askew and glasses broken, mumbling in his urine-stained boxers.
It’s the real thing, yo.
Paging Doug Kass.
Doug Kass please call your office
If the GE specialist didn’t have his backstop sugar $$$s the DOW would be -400+.
short is becoming too crowded…
I believe fly is right, maybe not today. But in a week or so, shorts may get fucked.
C is on fire!!!! its at a buck
So far this doesn’t look for any capitulation up side trade. No high volume on the downside of SPY. [Not yet] Might not happen until the DOW is aroung 6400. This is a momentum traders nightmare.
I just moved 50% of my cash into FAS on a gut feeling. What’s going to happen, now?
Will the gods love me, or will the clowns love my ass?
anon, you sound like you WANT the clowns to love your ass. Indeud?
Start listening to T MOE and you’ll be counting coin
T MOE Says:
Cramer says buy oil. Ha Ha HA
I am buying more DUG
March 4th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
T MOE Says:
I love this rally. Sucking in the fools for the next beat down. I stay 85% cash and wait to attack
March 4th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
T MOE Says:
I have been holding TWM for a while now and it has been a winner. Small Caps will feel more of the beating IMO
T MOE Says:
Fool-
Panic will come. VIX is picking up a little today. I don’t think there will be a meaningful rally until there is complete panic
Let’s see if we bounce off 700 for the S&P. My money is on a breakdown.
SRS, SRS Everyone say it loud and proud
Commercial RE is fucked
March 2nd, 2009 at 10:09 am
T MOE Says:
Pup-
I’m not covering GS just yet. Shorted at 96 last month. i hate that fucker. It should head toward 70
T MOE Says:
The day is early
The new month is near.
The 6 handle will come on both the S&P and the DOW
Upward bias??
Get in the funnel and be rewarded.
TWM, SRS, Short SPY, Short GS Short VNO
February 27th, 2009 at 10:44 am
T MOE Says:
yeah right joe- We all know that you are paper trading
T MOE buys a little TWM
Fucker goes to 90 to fill the gap
February 20th, 2009 at 10:39 am
The list goes on and on
GE is in the triangular antichrist pattern centered on $6.66.
mckcbill, clinging to his dream of becoming a professional ballerina, wears pink tutus every Saturday night.
Anon
I’m about to do the same thing. Coin toss if we move higher. It is very low. Got some BGU at 15.2
Its a vomit trade.
Pup-
I’m not covering GS just yet. Shorted at 96 last month. i hate that fucker. It should head toward 70
Nice call T MOE. I shoulda kept that short, but had to take some profits.
Jed eats Family Dollar brand Pizza
“I’M BACK” and will save the world
from financial disaster…with song and dance.
thunderpup – you’re right. it just broke the triangle!
now if it breaks through 5.58, that might cause a nice downturn overall
GREAT VID FOR THIS BLOG —
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pwAFohWBL4
6 minute interview that tells you everything you need to know about what the hell is going on in the real world.
Let’s see a nice spike to SPY 68 or a touch lower and get our rally hats on.
I’m tired of this slow bleed.
-DT
Smart money just started to buy BGU and TNA. Is there a plan to fade the jobs report tomorrow? Don’t go ape shit but this is the first sign of positive move.
haha KC is on fire today.
Someone get Barney a napkin… He’s slobbering all over the camera man.
Lots of Jed impostors today. Sad…because most of em are not as funny as me.
Trader Bob says the fly got ass pumped today. Sometimes you’re the pigeon and sometimes you’re the statue. Fruit Fly what’s the good word?
Anyone want a 10.5% dividend? If so PFE is your man with AAA credit.
I’ve got a buy in on GM at .01
I feel confident that when it hits .01, it will have the strength to rebound to .02
I’m as confident as Dick Bove on his C going to 60.00
Fly,
For you and the other tabbers:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/2000-crash-bush-09-obama/
Fly- key quote:
“The greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so.”
getting your face melted off with your longs today…though i see a bottom today or tomorrow. what is your risk tolerance on your dwindling/gone YTD gains?
Who wants to be cheered up? Read this…
http://market-ticker.org/categories/8-Editorial
TGiR
Those pronouncements always come out on down days. I don’t think hes wrong. I just think his timing is off.
Fly getting nutted today?
LOL. timing is off = 10-20% loss over a couple days = wrong… in the world of managing money.
The FLY is getting sac punched.
Traderbob
He’s gonna win at the end of the day.
bman,
good clip
goodluckdude,
I never said anything about him managing my money. Who gives a crap about managing money when your bugging out of town with cash on hand, a couple of guns, and whatever fits into your most unobtrusive vehicle. He is not wrong about the ultimate outcomes or the systemic reasons behind the outcomes.
Here comes the panic waves.
How low can UYG go
@tmoe
there goes GS….nice call!
forex risk aversion technically bottoms, therefore, like always we don’t fall off any cliff today.
There’s more chance of a liftoff (short squeeze) tommorrow.
Get the FUCK OUTTA THE WAY!!!!!
DEVIL DOG WAS RIGHT!
HOLY SHIT!
JFK is a 3rd world airport
jimmy bowtie http://www.allthingsjimrogers.com/2009/03/04/jim-rogers-interview/#more-307
New Poster,
Who knows? Just want to make sure we all know “How much lower can it go?” are famous last words.
I would not touch the banks even with a hazmat suit on.
<>
Madison- good call!
Unfortunately I agree with Fly’s general assessment of how screwed we all are….
No,No,No, Bernie double up! Cost average in for the big squeeze. I mean surely we’re oversold!
Fly is getting Squirrel Monkey raped.
Traderbob says the Fly got uppercut sac kicked to the balls
“Don’t short here.”
Great advice, Fly. Dumb ass.
didn’t you just get clown-shoed on a boatload of calls?
DevilDog for new tabbed bunker blogger.
_________________
li’l2retarded4skool for star of the “Hair Club for Men Disasters” documentary.
DevilDog for new tabbed bunker blogger.
li’l2retarded4skool for star of the “Hair Club for Men Disasters” documentary.
*****