Aside from Nevada, both Texas and California are enduring droughts of biblical proportions, which in turn will ruin the California fruit and nut business (no pun intended).
This whole “comedy crisis” that we are going through now is so funny I want to vomit on my mailman. Aside from the fun stuff, like droughts and wars, “The Fly” is into shorting commercial real estate stocks, particularly those originating from Texas.
Those fucking assholes are gonna get a giant cow whip to their chins in 2009. With Obama set to tax the shit out of oil/gas companies (no more LIFO accounting), coupled with sub $50 crude, the state of Texas is in for a very rude awakening.
Last week, I penned a rather in depth analysis, exclusive to PPT, regarding how fucked Texas is. In short, here are a few names to shoot at:
WRI, STC, CPT, ACC, iBOC and CiA.
More good news for you good news lovers:
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAmYWCKyyXg&feature=subscription 450 300] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
How about a play in WATER instead???
PHO comes to mind
It really is the ’30s again.
Maybe we’ll be Germany this time.
quit thinking optimistically Al. Shit is going LOWER.
Our farms were in danger up until a week ago. We got four feet of snow and 10 inches of rain in Feb (Northern CA Sierras). Our water problems are ended. Our rivers are flowing well. Good gold mining ahead!
Jawohl. Seig Heil!
The PHO chart looks gay. Fly has this one right. It’s headed south.
Quite possibly the finest post ever written on iBC.com…
Ladies and gentlemen I give you the laser bright comments of The Woodshedder.
Do the right thing and put that in the Epic Quotes, Fly.
_______
Wow, STC is a PERFECT short formation. Holy Shit.
I’m hitting that one from the open tomorrow.
It’s the same old shit at this blog. Fly, you’ve lost your edge. You’re now preaching to the same people.
…mailmen have to endure ALOT…
as they arrive at their appointed rounds !
———–
Rain…nor Sleet…nor Snow…nor Hail…etc…etc…
But…Vomit ? Jeeez !!!
I’m thinkin’ that ain’t in the job description !
.
That right there is some scary shit ^^
I’m downhill skiing a commerc re myself as a hedge on some longs.
What’s up with the Dog? He called the slam dunk from 8000 down to 7500, now he’s harping on a rally.
Last year, GE opened a $250 million desalination plant, Africa’s largest, with state-owned Algerian Energy Co.
Guess who provided the clad? That’s right, MOOB
This is serious fuckers.
Anyone know what’s going on with brokerages doing away or slashing margins?
Seems like it’s across the board from what I’m seeing.
Maybe I’m just an asshat but if this is true something is brewing.
NEW YORK, Feb 26 (Reuters) – Citigroup Inc and the United States have reached an agreement in which the government will substantially raise its stake in the bank, but demand a boardroom shakeup, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Under a deal expected to be announced early Friday, the Treasury Department has agreed to convert some of its current holdings of preferred Citigroup shares into common stock, the Journal reported on its website.
The government will convert its stake only to the extent that Citigroup can persuade private investors to do so alongside the government, the people said. The Treasury will match the private investors’ conversions dollar-for-dollar up to $25 billion, the Journal said.
A representative of Citigroup and a spokesman for the U.S. Treasury were not immediately available for comment.
The size of the government’s new stake will hinge on the amount of preferred shares that private investors, including sovereign wealth funds, agree to convert into common stock. The Treasury’s stake is expected to rise to 30 percent to 40 percent of Citigroup’s shares, the Journal said.
Although, Chief Executive Vikram Pandit is expected to keep his job, the government is demanding that New York-based Citigroup overhaul its board of directors, the Journal said.
It said the Treasury will call for Citigroup’s board to be comprised of a majority of independent directors.
There is still uncertainty about the price at which the government has agreed to convert its preferred shares into common stock, although people briefed on the discussion said Citigroup was asking Washington to convert at a price of as much as $5 a share, according to the Journal.
And now another quote from Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1961 farewell address:
“Another factor in maintaining balance involves the element of time. As we peer into society’s future, we – you and I, and our government – must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering for, for our own ease and convenience, the precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without asking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow.”
STC- NICE! Gonna try to get a 15.2 print for the my shotey!
i’m starting to think the mayans were spot on with their 2012 target.
Can some member please post the Fly’s comm re comments? It’s ok.
We have successfully completed unlooping the timeloop in which your unfortunate Reality had become entangled. We located and excised several illicit Time Machines that caused the loop. It was necessary to perform the reconnection at date, 1978, which may cause some collateral temporal confusion.
We wish all the local denizens well. You have developed here the most extraordinary financial instruments and technologies that the Time Patrol has observed. Even if this Reality does not survive, it will be the source of many future doctoral dissertations, please receive our gratitude.
A.D.
Aris,
The Mayans were right. Forget the Depression and go on a cruise. You’ve only got 3 years to blow what’s left of your 401k. 😉
Big trouble for GE.
Obama is closing the loophole for funds held overseas. As a result, GE will be taxed on $75 billion in foreign earnings.
Good times for Jeff Immelt.
Does anyone else perceive the bearish mania surrounding us? It is no different that the bullish mania of the dot com era and the housing market of 2006.
I just don’t subscribe to mania. I distrust it.
Even a new CEO can’t turn GE around now. Between greater-than-expected tax hits overseas and the financial black hole that is GE Capital, the company is running on auto fuck-me pilot at this point.
Moober,
You distrust it, because it’s foreign to you. You spent your entire adult life being told that you could bave 3 cars in the garage and an expensive home with banks loans and cheap 30-year mortgages. The entire America dream of the last 25 years was built on an IOU and, unfortunately, the wealth-based-on-credit premise has now come home to roost.
To put this meltdown in perspective, know this: we’re in year 1 of this crisis. Average bear markets take 18 months to bottom. This is no average bear market. It’s a secular turn for the worse in the American economy. A paradigm shift away from credit, if you will.
We will certainly have rallies along the way (I believe the next one begins at around DOW 6000). But even those will be short-lived. The direction is and will remain down for many years.
You can either side with history and prepare for a Depression, or you can shrug off the bad news, fill your heart with hope and go broke buying dips.
It’s your call. Buy and hold is dead.
The funny thing about large international oil companies is this: They can restructure around insane rules. For example, if I am one of the biggies, in 49 countries, I can and will spin off my US assets into a separate company, and move my headquarters, including operations in 48 other countries to Bahrain, or Barbados, and run the world from there instead.
GE can do it too. Corporations aren’t that stupid, and if the US government thinks they can unfairly overtax corporations or people, they will find out how quickly corporations and people can move.
Then, just like New Orleans after Katrina, what are you left with? The ambitious and intelligent? Families and growth? The analogy stands.
Mars.
LIZARB_MORF_LIHP
GOOD ONE!
Phil may be right.
I hear you MOOBER.
Shorting into a recovery rally can be a pretty dangerous thing. The problem is, what if your wrong and it isn’t a short-cover rally, it’s a rally-rally?
There’s a trillion in new money that’s going to flood the economy.
The market will bottom M/T when people start saying capitalism doesn’t work and only an idiot would buy a stock. Are we there yet? It won’t take a whole lot of good news to send the DOW to 10K as taxi drivers and Granny ex-house flippers from 2006 pile into short ETFs.
Obviously when a “free” market isn’t working the obvious solution is to get it to work. This requires politicians to pry their lips off lobbyists CO##S long enough to learn how they work.
OTOH, The FLY has a point:
We’re a drought away from famine and most of our seed companies are cutting production.
Well said, Mars. Illustrating one of the most crucial of economic facts- capital is MOBILE.
Wait til the taxeaters start noting that despite their best attempts to Hoover* the producers, their receipts continue to plummet.
Much to their graspy collective* chagrins.
_____
* all puns intended
___
Fly,
regarding the GE 75 billion overseas. thats not a loophole, it’s the tax code, which allows corporations to defer taxes on earnings earned overseas. as long as the money remains overseas, they can continue to defer the taxes. also, it’s a long way from proposal to becoming law. a law that’s 2 yrs down the road, if it manages to survive. in addition, i bet you and give you odds that those balances like the 75 bill, will either be grandfathered in or or payout over a long period of time. also, if this fucker, obama, gets this through, my assumption is that economy at that time is growing at trend or else no tax increases go through.
Chivas
I hope all is well.
They should be letting the corporation repatriate those assets. I CANNOT believe they are going to tax them. If they do, I think you would agree, we’re fucked.
Seriously, that cannot be allowed to happen.
Fly,
thank you very much for asking. it has been tough lately but promising.
i agree with you. that cannot be allowed to happen. if you recall, they allowed that either in 2004 or 2005 and it brought in a ton of cash.
btw, i also agree with you that a monster move is coming soon. even though i am positioned for the upside and we’re very oversold and sentiment seems extreme to bearish side, i gotta tell you, i am very concerned.
again, thanks for asking.
Aris, Phil,
You should start to see greater effects related to 2012 late this spring. It will be attributed to global warming in the press, but it is actually related to the influx of energy we are getting from the galactic center, which is also compressing the sun’s heliosphere (note the dearth of sunspots) and effecting our magnetosphere. Late this year we should start to to see more earthquakes and volcanoes, particularly in the higher, if not polar, latitudes. Earthquakes and volcanoes are more electrically and magnetically active than is currently realized.
From what I can tell, the effects this summer will be disruptive to say the least.
Phil, your points are taken. The most relevant to me is that I could be distrusting it because it’s foreign to me. Also, the paradigm shift away from credit is something I will consider.
“Even a new CEO can’t turn GE around now. Between greater-than-expected tax hits overseas and the financial black hole that is GE Capital”
No sense in replacing Immelt now. It will be more costly to replace him given the sweet golden parachute he has packed for himself … best to save the $ for taxes and blackhole filler.
“GE can do it [move off shore] too. Corporations aren’t that stupid, and if the US government thinks they can unfairly overtax corporations or people, they will find out how quickly corporations and people can move.”
Well, [Reagan Voice] if corporations decide to fly another country’s flag, the U S can recapture that lost tax revenue by cutting our foreign defense budget …. let the Chinese Government protect their assets via the socialist way … they don’t believe in nationalism abroad anymore, right? Ask Chavez!
The Onion bottom?
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/nation_instinctively_forms?utm_source=a-section
Chivas, I wish to extend my best wishes to you as well. I suffered the same loss as you a few years ago and know well how that can wreak havoc with one’s own health. Related or not, I hope you are getting excellent care and things turn out well. I look forward to your insightful comments as always.
All my regards, #8
Chivas
If they let US corporations repatriate assets, that would APE RAPE foreign banks.
Fly … someone here posted a copy of the new bill appropriations and I thought I saw allocation for repatriation under tax proposals …. here’s a story from early Feb on the issue … seems PFE would be a beneficiary of such to help fund their WYE takeover.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090202-715500.html?mod=wsjcrmain
For non-WSJ subscribers:
http://news.morningstar.com/newsnet/ViewNews.aspx?article=/DJ/200902021707DOWJONESDJONLINE000566_univ.xml
Is that divident announcement for NPK real?
Ozark Hillbilly says:
Late this year we should start to to see more earthquakes and volcanoes, particularly in the higher, if not polar, latitudes. Earthquakes and volcanoes are more electrically and magnetically active than is currently realized.
You checked rattle snake entrails to get this scientific forecast?
j,
The earth’s magnetic pole was drifting from Canada to Siberia at a rate of 10km per year at the start of the 20th century, up to 40km per year in 2003. There have been at least ten thousand pole reversals in Earth’s history. There is no evidence of any biological extinction during these events. I’ve been thinking about it for awhile now because it is interesting, but it looks like there’s no significant biological effect from the magnetic field reversal. Besides, it takes about a thousand years for the transition to complete itself. The last major reversal was 780,000 years ago.
omfgitsjd
You have any peer review articles for that
j,
I’m not really into geophysics that much. I’m more interested in the use of nuclear power for grid stabilization.
mars, that makes sense, BUT other countries are looking for money too. You can move the corp only to have the new country do the same thing
chivas the taxcode = a collection of loopholes, plain & simple
REM: you guessed it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmxyj6iInMc
Whats the power grid got to do with offering some peer reviewed pieces explaining your thesis.
Fly,
What do you think about getting long Eli Lilly, the drug company that makes Prozac? After reading this blog…I feel like I need to down a handful Prozac. I am probably not alone…is Eli Lilly a buy then?
JT
Time to downsize the account. Fuck. Anyway, FWIW, I showed out okay on HQS long, in $5.60 & out at $6.25 yesterday, 12% gain over two days. Yay tilapia!
I’m holding onto some positions that are so far underwater that I’d rather lose it all than capitulate now…go down swinging…namely UYG, MTW, CX in small lots.
Scanning for a couple daytrades now, degenerate OTB style.
omf
magnetic pole reversal is the least of our worries
btw during the transition, there is no protection from solar and cosmic radiation. cancer rates would go thru the stratosphere
I know lots of stuff that I don’t know how to convert to cash
Could someone comment on this:
“Management is currently working with its auditors and valuation consultants to complete goodwill impairment testing on the Company’s Oilfield Products segment, which was included in DMC’s Nov. 2007 acquisition of DYNAenergetics. ”
Selling this non-core business?
______________
Dynamic Materials Corporation to Announce Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Earnings Results on March 5, 2009
Friday February 27, 8:00 am ET
BOULDER, CO–(MARKET WIRE)–Feb 27, 2009 — Dynamic Materials Corporation (“DMC”) (NasdaqGS:BOOM – News), the world’s leading provider of explosion-welded clad metal plates, will announce preliminary fourth quarter and full-year financial results after the stock market closes on Thurs., March 5, 2009. Management is currently working with its auditors and valuation consultants to complete goodwill impairment testing on the Company’s Oilfield Products segment, which was included in DMC’s Nov. 2007 acquisition of DYNAenergetics. The Oilfield Products Segment accounted for approximately 11% of DMC’s total revenue through the first nine months of fiscal 2008. Upon completion of the annual impairment test, which is being performed as of Dec. 31, 2008, the Company will issue final audited financial results.
catalyst,
The solar wind will continue to shield the planet from cosmic rays. No biggie and of no immediate impact.
J,
No pole reversal impact on my portfolio, no additional research required.
there is one particular pennystock that’s on the list. You all know what that is already, I ain’t saying it again. Just fuckin’ stand there and watch!
STC is a screaming short –
http://alphalobotrading.blogspot.com/2009/02/stc-short-trade-operacion-para-cortos.html
omf, not true re solar wind
On topic: Jimmy R expects civil unrest in US in a few yrs:
http://www.allthingsjimrogers.com/2009/02/26/jim-rogers-become-a-farmer-to-survive-coming-collaps/#more-291
Just remember- ATAO (Always Trade Against Obama)(and America now).
Bye to the Space Industry and good luck to you soon to be unemployed professionals and techs (Yes, he lied to you about an additional shuttle launch).
Bye to Wall Street (Triple taxes on private equity and hedgies).
Bye to you Doctors and medical providers (Medicare reimbursement slashed to well below your costs).
Bye to Israel (I know you 75% of Jews really wanted to believe but check out appointment of Charles Freeman, Susan Rice and Oabama’s participation now in Durban II).
Bye to you small business owners (who file Sub S and employ 85% of Americans-your taxes from payroll to income are going way up).
Bye to any manufacturing and industrial companies left in USA (the failed in Europe cap and trade is coming here for a phantom man made global warming BS).
Bye to USA consumer (who will pay for increased cost of goods due to phantom cap and trade).
Bye to you producers in high tax states. You know why.
Hello to Marxism.
This bear market will end eventually, government will decrease deficit spending, and the age of aquarius will begin on schedule.
In the meantime, how many people believe STC is a good short?
Forgot to say hello to the new economic theory of “Trickle Up Poverty.”
Blah blah blah. The end of the world as we know it.
HELLO…… guns! SWHC, RGR, CAB
Hello…….. cheap shit I can buy from my couch! SFLY
Hello ……. cheap shit I can do from my couch! NFLX
Hello…….. stem cell and genome bio bullshit! PBE a good etf
Hello……..Bye I gota go
Listen dumbfucks, PHO is NOT a water play!
Download the list of holdings and look at their businesses, you’ll see.
You want to trade it, watch its chart, but don’t think it’s a fundamental water play, cause it aint.