There are mustard seeds all over my front lawn. People in my neighborhood are racing, mind you, over to Best Buy, in order to buy more plasmas.
On a very personal level, I’d like ot see the Dow like at 2,000. You know, just to crush the spirits of all of the assholes who’ve been buying the dips. However, I am looking for a rally, near term, which will set up a Godly shorting opportunity.
I do not debate the fact that we are fucked. Instead, I offer visions of mustard seeds and fantasies of stock splits, for the next week or so.
Or, maybe we just go down and I sell my longs and go short again.
Stay tuned.
NOTE: At the time of this post, “The Fly” was 50% long, 15% short and 35% cash.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FG1GRstYJQ&feature=channel_page 450 300]UPDATE: Put this guy in charge of the banks and we’ll be trading up to 13,000 in no time. If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I hope you are right and that we can move well above the levels we have been hanging out near since October when the system was on the verge of collapse or so it seemed. Definitely a lot of long term problems but being 6K lower on Dow reflects a lot of them. BAC should be a buy here I can’t see them wiping out the shareholders after forcing them to go through with the puchase of MER.
Owning SRS shouldn’t be considered “long”. Should it?
Zombie sucks Kudlow’s dick
NOTE: At the time of this post, “The Fly” was 50% long, 15% short and 35% cash, (and 60% drunk).
Mustard seeds will leave you with dead spots all over your shitty lawn come spring. Steve will laugh at his neighbor, The Fly.
You tell him Kiwin.
Besides, those weren’t mustard seeds. Our chihuahua had an accident on your lawn.
So MSNBC just said more democrats are joining the Republican opposition, Democrats are getting more and more nervous, and there is NO VOTE tonight on stimulus. Harry Reid said the 60 votes were in the bag earlier today, but he blows up again on his guarantees.
But the SP500 futures are RALLYING off this. I don’t get this market.
Too bad as we are going DOWN at least 6% tomorrow.
XOM BTFO, booyah!
I guess my FAS from last week should work out for major coinage.
I found a video of Fly training police in Iraq. He takes no lip.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0a3_1233765334&p=1
This guy should be running the US Defense.
Jed–Lay off Zombie, scum bag!
It takes some balls to write this post ahead of that employment data.
-DT
And Devil Dog–When was the last time you were correct when you offered a prediction for the next trading day?
TC
Fucking awesome!!!
Thoughts about tomorrow:
Important change is being blocked and delayed as some seek to hold onto old habits and outworn ways of being-dragging the past along with us. The past weighs us down.
The next stage of development cannot happen until we are willing to give up the things we are attached to, our beliefs and what we consider our mandates and rights.
A radical severance is called for and the need for acquisition and benefits.
Instead stagnation rules the day. The situation-government-markets are forever stuck, mired down in a swamp of misery, pain and boredom.
And so it is and so it will remain until those who direct our path…sacrifice their outgrown and tightly clung to beliefs in order to acquire something better.
.
My thoughts exactly …. I think we can keep chugging north till around tax day or Q1 earnings.
If oil starts to move up, it will drag the indices & a lot of stocks with it, which is why I don’t like DUG here … but hedges are hedges …. however, I’d prefer something else … better off finding individual issues. Like some you’ve already mentioned that have worked ie KIM ESS ARE
The answer is mustard!
Mustard is made from mustard seeds!!!
TC,
Thanks for sharing. That is a great video! Telling it just the way it is. I hope he runs for President in 2012.
Everyone …. watch that video found by TraderCaddy
Radical severance means not only endings, but new beginnings
Lady Guenevere
Lady G-
You sure due spew a lot of bullshit. Even when we are in agreement your posts give me a headache.
Anonymous,
+1
LONGS:
If you miss the “sell” inflection point.
Your ankle and foot will be sticking out of your ass, with the rest of your corpse unidentifiable.
I’m sorry, nevermind.-Rosanne Rosannadanna
TC – good video. Be nice to have a few individuals that possess such clarity at higher levels of our gubbmint
Anonymous, ignorance is not bliss…
thoughtful commentary would naturally give someone like you a headache, so you lash out and call something bullshit you simply cannot understand nor appreciate the value. You want to be spoon fed grade school dribble.
Pearls wasted on swine….not mustard seeds.
Good Night All.
.
a) Why the fuck doesn’t he learn how to speak THEIR language?
b) What the fuck are we doing in Iraq AND Afghanistan, anyway?
c) Cheney is a fuckface who didn’t do his job.
Lady G – Queen of cut and paste.
LG – stop trying to swat the little anony mouse – he’s fucking dead on!
You get like this every time you start to become tolerable
and frankly it’s getting to the point where I don’t know who I want the kill file for more – you or the Dog
Another +1
just scroll down to the next post when you see “Lady G says”, my headaches are gone long time ago
Lady G needs to get laid. Any volunteers ? Danny ? Moober ? Juice ? TMOE ? DEVILDOG ? The mission: To go where no man has gone before.
Yea baby mustard seeds….
Here is a truckload..and then there is the real economy as it wipes out the mustard seeds.
We may rally but it will all come down to this:
http://www.rail-videos.net/video/view.php?id=1217
Fly is running this train!
I eagerly await the day when Kudlow’s ass is ripped out due to the passing of all of the indigestible Mustard seeds that he’s been feasting on. In due time…in due time..
That guy is a fucking badass! We need to send him up to Capitol Hill to have a little chat with Reid, Pelosi et. al.
DevilDog, dude, man, you must have enjoyed cleaning the damn eggs off of your house today. I’m sure peeling yourself from your Memento-esque stock life and wrangling on your burlap pants for the first time this week must have killed you. We’re gonna pile in the Trans-Am tomorrow, crank some fuckin’ Skid Row and knock your mailbox clean off of its post with the power of one thousand Phil Collins’!
dave,
Which one is lefty?
And is this new Pope trying to get invited to Mel Gibson’s or what?
erx is a buy
Hmmmmmm,
Let me ride along. I have copius amounts of mustard gas that I can lob into DD’s house via his broken sliding glass door. We will see if senior Teufel Hunden can live up to his name.
Rumors circulating in Music City that HWAY may be toast, situation much more dire than CEO lets on. Insiders fleeing.
http://tinyurl.com/d2voxe
Hey, some of us enjoy reading a wide variety of opinions
The thing I love about “Going Higher”
Is that, eventually, we get to go LOWER!
Turn it UP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTtwlEidzZU
TC – that’s the best shit I’ve seen in a long time!
No way in hell market rallies from here! This rally has 1.5 days left max. I dare any of you to buy the next gap down.
I can’t believe no one got Fly’s joke (last post Ack, Ack, Ack).
Mars Attacks. I’ve been pumping DUG like a wedding night mormon on his bride. Yes it sucked today. But I stand by the premise that oil and gas companies will drain away (in the shorter term). My shorter term might not match your shorter term.
Let me remind: I’m a swing trader. Weeks often. I’m not as nimble as you Fly. Yes on paper DUG dug in today. I’m not sweating it. DUG will climb. No attack intended from Mars. It just needs time.
End of transmission from Mars.
Two things:
One, I tend to side with the bears for tomorrow, simply because of the massive selling into strength at the close. If we are up tomorrow, I’ll be looking to lighten.
Two, Fly, regarding your oil short. You do realize that President Mean and Green (in that order) just reversed a bunch of oil leases today in Utah. What does that tell you about ongoing supply?
__________
TC – excellent video
“You don’t need any fuckin trucks, just walk.” Classic.
That guy is a kickass soldier, but in a few years he will be far from Iraq when the boys down the road come back to kill some of these Iraqi policemen and their families.
Short term (a few months) it makes ZERO difference. Do you know how many leases are out there already not getting drilled because the economics don’t work right now? A few acres in the middle of Utah next to a small environmentally sensitive area does 2 things.
1) Nothing practical. Zero difference.
2) Buys Ol’ Bummer some public sentiment points.
He’s not going to cripple domestic oil production. In fact, he’s massively expanding offshore and onshore drilling areas with his other hand while the other is making this small gesture. He just has a media that is friendly to him.
Yes longer term prices will sky rocket. But the market has yet to be shocked for a few months by catastrophically low oil prices. It’s coming.
That last post was a reply to JakeGint.
Mars.
Yes TC, classic, thanks.
Until you can man up, just shut the fuck up.
A motto to cherish.
______
That guy is a kickass soldier, but in a few years he will be far from Iraq when the boys down the road come back to kill some of these Iraqi policemen and their families.
Don’t you see? That’s why he making with the tough love right now. If those boys don’t toughen up, they’re dead meat, either way.
And if they learn to do things the right way, they won’t have anything to fear from psycho head choppers. Believe it.
___________
blah blah blah Citi keeps KIM at Hold tonight, but lowers target price from $18 to $12.
Mainly I just wanted to say “Damn that video was sick TC !”.
okay, once and for all:
ASSHOLES
I am NOT short oil. I am short oil stocks, mainly XOM, via DUG/ERY.
The share price of XOM is UNSUSTAINABLE.
When it is kissing $60, you will remember me.
Excellent, TC. Forget the banking system, let’s put him in charge of the World.
“Inflation? You’re talking to me about inflation, Trichet? Get that thumb out of your ass, cut those rates to zero and STFU”
Fly-
“mainly XOM, via DUG/ERY”
http://thestockmasters.com/DIG-DUG-061208.html
Yes DUG is 25% weighted to Exxon. And I know you think Exxon is overvalued relative to its peers. Why not short Exxon directly?
Mars.
Mars
That article is dated. XOM now represents 35% of DUG/ERY.
I want broad exposure to short oils. In oil downturns, it gets dicey real fast.
Exxon has the cash to weather a few lousy years. They are about to drill a deepwater arctic prospect that has potential to be hundreds of billions of barrels (way larger than the Brazil sub-salt play that they also have a piece of). Their cost per barrel for Finding and Development is less than half of all of their peers (unless you include Saudi Aramco and friends). Exxon is increasing their capital spend while everyone else is wimpering in the corners. That means Exxon is doing everything way cheaper, and when prices rebound they’ll be well situated to take advantage. They deserve a huge premium to their peers. Maybe they’ll take a bit of a hit. But here’s one I think will fend worse even though by “average standards” they are already undervalued.
ConocoPhillips. They had $32 billion in debt, until last week when they upped it to almost $40 billion. They borrowed to buy Burlington Resources for $36 billion during all time record gas prices. And Burlington was primarily a natural gas company. Just as prices were collapsing last year, they closed a deal to buy Origin Resources for almost $9 billion (again on borrowed coin). They operate under the “starvest” mode. They buy up producing companies and starve them until the assets disappear. Then they go buy something else. All the while bragging about their intentions to “grow organically through the drill bit” while they slash capital programs. They are on a course for a serious wreck.
Personally I’m in DUG too because it spreads the risk around, and when things drop, they often drop indiscriminantly across a whole sector. Metals and mining got blown away last fall. Baby’s out with the bath water and all that. But Exxon hardly budged.
I’d love to hear more of your thoughts on Exxon/oil companies/oil prices.
cheers.
Mars.
What does that mean?
So, they have 28 bill in cash, therefore they deserve a cap of 470 billion?
You sound like a CSCO investor, circa 2000.
Look you, the company is manipulating its share price, plain and simple. They will spend 15 bill in buyback, in a 6 mo time frame, while oil is in rapid dissent.
That is outright stupidity, similar to what the banks did on their first leg lower.
XOM trading 50% above its peers is too much. It will fall.
BTW:XOM is at its biggest premium since the merger of Exxon and Mobile.
I’m guessing Karen Tso has apodysophilia, a perfect match to my philocaly and sarcophilous nature.
I think you’re right about that. In fact COP, Exxon, Chevron, Total, Shell, etc. They’re all in share buy-back mania mode. During 2008 they all bought roughly the same number of shares relative to their cash flow. It’s been going on for about 5 years, and if one of them stops doing it, their share price will look like it underperforms relative to its peers.
However, unless I’m missing something here (which is possible because buy-backs have always bugged me) share buybacks do roughly the same as dividends at the end of the day. The difference is dividends are taxed quickly and more heavily, and share price appreciation is taxed at lower rates and further in the future as capital gains. (Obviously by removing total outstanding shares). They also allow a company to change it’s definition of “profit”. They can hide more profit and call buybacks an expense. “For the last X years we have invested much more than our profits” etc.
That’s why shareholders are all begging for the buybacks.
So what’s the big problem with buy-backs vs dividends? I too would like to see bigger capital programs. But for the super-majors, it doesn’t seem to be in the plan.
Mars.
Good night.
A preview of the Ken Lewis interview (???)
http://bankimplode.com/blog/2009/01/16/swindle-on-wall-street/
In a conference call Friday morning, analysts asked Kenneth D. Lewis, the bank’s chairman, whether he had regrets that he had agreed to purchase Merrill.
[He should have been asked if he had any choice in the deal.]
Mr. Lewis said that as Merrill’s fourth-quarter losses mounted, he did re-evaluate whether he should close the deal and whether he could renegotiate the price for Merrill. But, he said, regulators implored him to complete the transaction and said they would provide support.
[Above question answered.]
“The government was firmly of the view that terminating or delaying the closing of the transaction could lead to significant concerns and could result in significant systemic concerns,” Mr. Lewis said. “We did think we were doing the right thing for the country.”
[Translation: he did the right thing for Merrill’s well-connected insiders. Emperor Paulson’s force-feeding of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America was to disguise the bailout as a merger, but the Emperor is naked. We all saw through that one!]
Ken Lewis is a coprolith.
True but whom is more deserving of asshat of the month … Lewis or Thain?
Thain didn’t have a clue what was happening under his own nose and if McCain had been elected Thain was rumored to be going to DC with him …. we dodged a bullet there!
London dismissing payroll #’s in favor of and all gaga over US Stimulation [sic] Program passing next week ….
Obama has company regarding mfg’g, science, etal ….
Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — Business Secretary Peter Mandelson said the British economy’s future lies in high-skill manufacturing and science, with less emphasis on financial services than in the past.
“Some rebalancing is required,” Mandelson told the Confederation of British Industry’s manufacturing dinner in Birmingham. “The next decade will be about strengthening manufacturing’s place at the heart of Britain’s economy. And we will probably sell the odd derivative too, and that’s fine.”
Seems like a no brainer that as global economies lose jobs and see their currencies sink that a return to mfg will be the remedy but with all the competition from Asia it is inevitable that countries will abandon free trade in favor of national protection despite all the rhetoric to the contrary.
Fuck the world …. honor free trade for private industry and import cheap consumer goods as usual but when it comes to “domestic stimulation” the labor and materials must be produced here. A foreign subsidiary of a U S corp should not be allowed to use imported materials or labor though a foreign entity producing here should be allowed to partake in the program if they use U S labor and raw materials produced here.
Lady G has some good insights. Some of the recent business practices just suck.
Everyone is betting the market is going higher… all CNBC pundits, all bloggers… watch for the headfake today, shoot market higher in the AM, only to bring it back down to new lows next week… but we’ll see.
I love that mean motherfucker in the Iraq police video. He needs to be the Chairman of the SEC.
DUG headed higher bitches. Gap at 21.50 will not be filled for a few months. Oil is going to NEW LOWS along with the S&P starting today.
the fly is probably right, but the Prof has just sold short a few more k of spy… betting on the low IQ of Geitner…
To all GE stockholders
Your stock price will remain in the toilet until Jeff Immelt is replaced. Immelt is not capable of restoring GE. He simply does not have the tools or the DNA to properly handle the current crisis.
slightly worse than expected.
I guess the market will take it in it’s stride.
Yup, it looks like they will rally this market, as God said, into Monday. Then after the “bank plan rally” it’s tank time.
The Fly is God.
unemployment #’s out
looking at these numbers, I’ve taken another 1500 spy short…
An interesting part of the Iraq police video is that one realizes that words like bullshit, fuckin’,pussy,chicken shit, etc. are words of a universal language. The entire world knows what they mean and in what context.
I especially like the way the GI insults them in their culture by asking if they are a woman.
He should have bitch slapped Mr bigmouth Patton style.