Gambling Gets You Nowhere
I’m not cracking the champagne bottles, due to my shorts are working this morning. Fuck, for all I know, this market can spin like a Tasmanian Devil—upwards—into the close.
What I do know: gambling on big event economic data is a suckers play. Sure, from time to time, it’s cool to roll the dice and get on the right side of the trade. There is no better feeling than nailing a controversial pick, no?
But, I must say and insist, gambling in this market is foolish. We’re up too much too quickly to be levering up long, hoping for more.
I remember when the dot com bubble burst in 2000; I believe it was March, to be exact. I knew stocks were ridiculously expensive. As a matter of fact, I was in 100% cash, just prior to the collapse—sometime in April. However, seeing the market go up everyday, watching my colleagues bank millions on asinine dot com ideas eventually got to me and forced me back into the market—just in time for the fucking crash. I was young and overzealous.
I could have been a fucking hero. But, instead, I ended up being like all the other poor losers/saps, getting poleaxed by panic selling. I will never forget those lessons and will punch it into your fucking heads, if you choose to ignore these warnings.
In other news, PALM and DRYS are off to the races. It really is a non-event. They are not leaders. Ignore them.
Let’s talk about important shit:
Oil cracked $40. It cracked $40, despite a weak dollar, because the world economy is grinding to a halt. And, my guess, there are lots of asshole speculators out there who have been storing oil or long contracts, waiting for a higher prices. As the price action deteriorates, those fuckers panic sell crude.
Ignore the eps warning at CVX , if you must. But, there will be many crude warnings to come and cap ex budgets will be slashed. It is a dead sector, regardless of the price of crude. That damage has been done.
There is strength in select banks, like GS and MS. However, if you are long those names, I’d suggest taking a profit.
By the way, the main distributor for HANS, old Budweiser, has begun selling its own energy soda, called 180. This is a fucked up thing for HANS, since BUD places it right next to Monster, on store shelves. I think HANS can be shorted here. However, keep in mind, it is always a takeover play.
Finally, my shorts in XOM, NOV, KIM, VNO and HANS are working well, for now. As for my longs, they are doing poorly. However, with all of the 200 and 300% levered etf’s (SRS, FAZ, DUG, REW, SSG, EEV, ERY, SMN) on my books, I find myself in a rather enjoyable predicament, at the moment of course. Stubbornly, I will hold my shorts until I sense capitulation.
As of now, the market sentiment is still extraordinarily bullish.
UPDATE: More Madoff fun.
The market usually has 3 or 4 main trends during the year and to DevilDog’s credit, he is right. Market should be going down just because of the return to the mean. I maybe be wrong, but seems that the market dont want to go down. WHY? I dont know…Do i want to argue with the tape? No. I just go with the flow. Personally, i was expecting a 3 to 5 day drop…
Im out and gone for the weekend
Fly - any thought on shorting the support services around drilling, refining, etc. Engineering firms, equipment firms, etc?
A biscuit as a thanks offering:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/duke_geren/2894529633/
The earth will flip on it’s axis soon and north will be south and south north. when that happens Manhattan will be completely under sea water as well as England and Japan…..at that moment the eskimos will take over and all will be fine…..they will hand out free salted cod and sporks….and if your nice maybe a jar of tabasco…..
Speaking of sucker plays, now that the market has probably blown some longs out via stops, it would make perfect sense to reverse up and blow out some of the shorts who jumped in below 900.
Still holding Gold/Silver sector and loaded with EGO. Hawkish trade…
Speaking of sentiment, anybody long TBT should be careful. This thing is all over the blogosphere. It was mentioned twice in the most recent issue of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, and the general feeling that US T Bonds are a bubble waiting to burst is nearly universal.
This thing could go to zero.
Shush! Quiet! The Messiah is speaking
Artist…when the earths axis flips…will you turn hetero?
http://images.salon.com/comics/boll/2009/01/08/boll/story.gif
Mini-Devildog
Long TLT
Short TBT
LONG SSG
LONG EFU
SHORT M
SHORT NYT
SHORT RTH
Time frame- 6 months
i like eev into the bell.
Dollar strengthens soon as the rest of the world is worst off than us and their will be flight to the dollar for safety.
I will add eev to my list then. With EFU and EEV, Ill be up to my eyeballs with emrg. mrks. shorts.
sweet
Fly, I remember it well. It was March 8 that the beatings began. I believe I was long BEAS.
EEV is good w. a strong dollah dollah.
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So Fly in the 2000 crash you were “all in” at the tender age of 23?
Tough lesson to learn at that age. I guess you lost all your money or ‘ other people’s money’ if you were a manager or trader at some place during that time.
Hard lessons like that and this depression we are in now, I guess make you all the more stronger if you stay in and dont quit.
.
buy baskets hitting.
Qs $30 will have a lot of bears trapped.
There will be much phuckery this day.
ADBs were in a meeting at 10am today! clocked-in late, that’s all!
DRYS to $35 by noon.
where the fuck is devildog? did someone give him the day off……..
Trust no one. Kill all birds.
Words to live by.
Devildog was last seen chasing after his 84 olds cutlass that one of my boys was returning to Neils Auto Finance Plaza.
and jg was on the road with csav, which still exists, odd no?
Great. Our commy officials have mandated 50 bill of tarp funds go to foreclosure mitigation.
Say goodbye to your property values, again.
Im back
Im loaded with EGO since yesterday. Added DRYS, EXM, TBSI and DSX and i just became a Shipping Stocks goldigger again.
Nottingahm Speakout?
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thats funny….84 olds cutlass….
what’s everyone having for lunch?
The craziest Costanza move now would be if Devildog turns out to right and we rally strong here. Odd no?
Correct. We should kill all pigeons.
Fly thanks for the PPT score earlier on GS. It confirmed what I have been thinking since the run up in the stock the past week or so. The fucker is a sell. I believe that it at least comes back down to its 50 day MA which is a 10 point drop from present levels.
Ed HOC-huli ANGRY at Fly!
Ed HOC-huli SMASH!!
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DRYS 16.30
TBSI 12.85
DSX 14.30
EXM 9.10
EGO 7.27 yesterday
Devildog is having Quiche.
Freddy:
You’re a greedy bastard. You remind me of Hansel.
noodles - i hope not.
please post favorite flavours.
mine - curry.
Fly,
Relative Strength Bastard, thats for sure
would someone please fucking kill Larry Kudlow…….
NOV/RIG are monster shorts.
RIG took on all that debt for Global Santa Fe acq. No one is deep water drilling with oil south of $60.
Fly.
Im just a sniper trader. Swing trade
Freddy:
Only long side?
thanks for the Madoff link fly. most amusing.
I reckon he gave all his clients a pearl necklace.
.
Ok I’m down on the day now. This sucks. Tried to get cute over and over again. I’m as retarded as Devildog today. I had a great opening trade and then over-traded rest of the day. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
Eb:
On days like that, I find it best to execute one last trade, at the very end of the day.
You guys should read this re GS…astounding…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAvhtiFdLyaQ&refer=worldwide
I repeat .. and as The Fly has said … watch for a late rally
Like the cover photo for this post.
Have you seen this thing?
Awesome.
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fucking christ…..Dennis Kneale is the biggest fucking dork above the equator……
Fly-
COP has been dropping more than XOM and CVX. Do you think it is a better short than XOM. Don’t they have a bundle of debt compared to the other two? I have been short XOM since 82 and I think it goes to 70, but I was thinking of riding the wave by jumping on COP as well. What is the PPT for COP saying?
Fly,
Most of the time…In my personal opinion, market needs to correct more than just yesterday, maybe a 3- 5 day drop, but there are sectors and stocks moving up all the time. I scan between 500 -700 charts daily all based in relative strength ranking. Im not kidding
anyone noticing how FXI lost all its gains from the previous rally?
Dennis K. (CNBC) is a member of the Gator Nation.
He must be the Orange one in the Orange and Blue.
I’ve got to say that the stock operators that run the PNC book are a bunch of faggots who enjoy watching the stock price flutter around like a white plastic grocery bag in a urine stenched alley. While I am short this stock for many reasons, the operators find it necessary to blare The Cure and cut their cocks to satisfy their emo disdain for sunlight. I intend on briskly walking into the US Treasury (since PNC has taken bailout money) and harpooning whichever farm animal is clicking the buy button and then take the head of that beast and slingshot it onto the stock operators at the NYSE.
You fucking faggots, I am here to bake and sell the cookies, not lick cookie dough off each others’ fingers.
Freddy,
I’m following your moves..brilliant…how long before you make a move on EOG??
Hey sports fans. Just got up. Well, I tried really hard to be bullish last night for a change and look what happened. Great contrary indicator! BTW, I find it interesting that Kraplow bringing up his “goldilocks” bullshit last night also marked the top of this bullshit rally from November. I just read the jobs reprt…gee they revised UP Oct and Nov…wonde how much Dec will be revised UP next month. Something that blows my mind is that in spite of having a much larger population than in 1942 and supposedly a much larger economy we have LESS manufacturing jobs now than then!!! UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE!!! Really drives home my contention that our “fundamentally strong economy” is anything but. Our economy is nothing but a SIV, CDS, CDO, TARP, BAILOUT, BUY SHIT, PRINT MONEY FOR NOTHING, GIANT PONZI SCHEME, FAKE SUPPLY SIDE ELITIST ONLY BENEFIT, POS ECONOMY. Prepare for the GREATER GREAT DEPRESSION, SOCIAL REVOLUTION and S&P 150. Off to drink rich man’s whiskey and an egg sandwich.
Michele Cabrera has very nice golden globes…
Ba-da-bing! Someone had to say it…
DD posts just as buy baskets rip up.
DD photo of f40 please. naughty naughty boy.
Devildog….you are one scary dude. I have a hard time reading your posts….they are really REALLY REALLY scary.
Is this Y2K all over? Is this the end of the world? Should I be stock piling food in a shelter somewhere? You do remind me of some Colorado friends I had. They scared me and my ex-husband so much about Y2K we bought barrels of stuff to run our generator, camp side burners, loaded up on dehydrated foods, water, etc…..
I was just out for a smoke with my buddy Obama I’m back. Where’s my fuckin’ banana?
Is Devildog’s post bullish or bearish? Bearish right? I’m going long.
Nice. Golden Globes.
We will be down 2% at 3:58, then rip to breakeven by the close.
Everyone loses. House wins again.
YEEEEEHHHHHHHH……….devildog is here……..he is alive…….now the show can begin……..
“Off to drink rich man’s whiskey and an egg sandwich”.
LMAO!
DevilsDog capitulates on his capitulation!
Rally time !
Bought 5000 DZZ @ $25.48.
I’m fixing up to fling maximum poop at bearshitters, you feelin’ me? Gimme peanuts, now
Jaques Parizeu Says:
Freddy,
I’m following your moves..brilliant…how long before you make a move on EOG??
Market will dictate when i move…i designed a indicator that tells me when a stock stop making highs…not a stochastic which is based in a range, but based in actual highs.So when it stop making highs, im out. So, the call belongs to the market,
I’m Rick James Bitch!!! KIM get back over here.
You tell dat ho Superfreak!
Something that blows my mind is that in spite of having a much larger population than in 1942 and supposedly a much larger economy we have LESS manufacturing jobs now than then!!! UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE!!!
What’s unbelievable is that an alleged graduate of Va. Tech doesn’t recognize fundamental changes in technology and manufacturing automation since 1942.
What Fortune 20 firm did you work with? Federated Dept Stores?
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This passes for analysis at a major Canadian bank. Unbelievable. What about paying back or even servicing the deficits created? Not a clue.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090109.wrubin0109/GIStory/
BTW, the rally was at the OPEN today. Will close at the lows today. S&P 600 in mid February. FUCK you stupid cows.
we’re in another fucking dead calm……I guess it’s time to take a nap…..
I wish I knew what you guys see in this Michele Caruso Cabrera young lady…
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Ddog - I say we close at the highs … watch, and learn.
Jake - are those real?
RMBS : kaboom
fly mentioned legal case outstanding - it just hit.
Bruce — Not sure, but assuming…
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Jake, where you at…CES? Yes, I know all about tech and productivity, blah, blah, blah. Sorry, that does not change the facts. Our economy does not add value when a dollar is spent. We make nothing. All we do is push paper around. As far as I’m concerned the laws of mother nature trump tech. You don’t agree then buy some more QQQQ. I don’t give a shit about video games or cell phones that double as movie projectors or that can clip my finger nails.
Juice, suggest you wise up and face reality and not live in the fantasy land spun by wall street and the government. Mother Nature rules over all things and she is very, very pissed off. Watch and learn.
FAZ, new day hi on big vol bar = interesting
Neighbor’s cat killed a bird and left it for a present. It must read this blog.
Jake, where you at…CES? Yes, I know all about tech and productivity, blah, blah, blah. Sorry, that does not change the facts. Our economy does not add value when a dollar is spent. We make nothing. All we do is push paper around. As far as I’m concerned the laws of mother nature trump tech. You don’t agree then buy some more QQQQ.
Actually Perro Diablo, the Qsinator v3 (which generally hits the quick turnaround rallies) triggered a “Buy” signal yesterday as the day’s high was less than the 5D Moving Average.
It’s not an “investment” with “dogma” - it’s what I like to call “taking the trade in front of you”.
Oh, yeah and GLD looks about ready to make a small move north of 86 shortly.