Today was supposed to be a pivotal day for the markets. This is the day when the real direction was supposed to be decided upon, by overweight men who happen to be high on coke. Instead, we are riddled with false breakdowns and strong banks.
WTF?
One thing I know: never short a dull market. And this fuckers is one hell of a snoozer.
Recent Dow strength can be greatly attributed to the rebounds in XOM, CVX and WMT. However, one must think to oneself: “will XOM and CVX continue to rally or fade”?
On the other hand, there has been nice strength in JPM, C, MRK and KFT, pretty much all day.
My guess is as good as yours, at this point. My bias is to be short, but I am cognizant enough to have some upside hedges in JPM, PFE, FAS, BGU and BDK, just to name a few.
Frankly, the play book says we close at the lows for the session. However, I know how bear market rallies can just pick away at bears; and it can last awhile. As always, the true tone of the market will be revealed at 3:15.
Either JPM leads us up. Or XOM leads us down.
Place your bets.
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Fly…TBT?
TBT is getting hammered thanks to the new treasury bubble.
What more can I say.
For now: avoid.
NOV up now about almost 3%.
and RIG reversed.
Insane moves.
looking at MON and FCX and some other materials that are not participating in this bounce, its hard not to see SMN rally into the close
im hedged with FAS and now SSO
The market is a forward looking device – it is looking at Oblama World – where up is down and down is up.
GMXR going to zero this month
FAS-inating
Fly…just a reminder…never buy 3x ETF’s ever again.
Now watching “Sudden Impact”.
Any bets on when somebody will come up with a 4x ETF?
We’re closing down, this is only a mid-day reversal. This kinda of movement has happened a lot over the past 2 months.
DD…what channel…CNBC is like watching paint dry.
Almost missed this:
Anton sez:
What? No, wait, I just figured it out:
“To Serve Man” is a cookbook!
I think I saw that episode (re-runs of course) when I was about nine, and to this day it still creeps me out.
That spaceship door closing at the end? (Shudder).
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Fun fact: We’re at nearly the same damn place we were on S&P as we were way back on October 12.
Krugman says:
… a new Goldman Sachs report suggests that infrastructure projects that are “shovel-ready” are probably only a few tens of billions worth, and that a larger effort would take much of a year to get going. Meanwhile, it’s very questionable how much effect tax rebates will have on consumer demand. So it may be hard for stimulus to get much traction until late 2009 — and that’s even if Congress goes along, which may be a problem given all the bad analysis and disinformation out there.
So here’s what I’m wondering: will it, in fact, even be possible to pull the economy out of its nosedive before unemployment goes into double digits? I’m starting to wonder.
Now watching “more of my profits disappear”.
I am pretty much the only kind of trader to make money in this market.
Finish at the high of the day. BESPOKE had a great report on jobs day.
The OJ RALLY!
egregious bear market Santa Claws Rally begins now…
Pulled out of my shorts, will re-enter before the close.
Nothing can hold this market back! Soon to be in the green!
As a guy that actually builds stuff, eg infrastructure, design business will be good, but it will be a long time (years) before any serious construction can take place. Unless they take a hatchet to regulations and bureaucratic inertia, you can’t get anything big permitted that fast. If they actually spend $1T or so in 2009, it will mostly be wasted.
Short ZLC…going to zero…
I am afraid, we will close in the green for today. We are ALREADY DOWN 7% for the week. I find it doubtful we fall another 3-4%.
This does not mean, I am bullish…Fuck no; but I will hedge, just in case.
Anybody thought FCX was going to $15? Jesus, I remember the Fly buying dips at $75.
Donald,
I’m calling for a Missouri outright win +525
+17 is a gimme.
Unreal rally on no volume at all. I can’t believe LEN has come all the way back, it’s as though this is a MAJOR headfake, meant to catch as many idiots as possible before we get crushed on huge volume going into the close.
We shall see, this move doesn’t spell rally to me though.
Have you seen my copy of War and Peace.
I need some readin’ material
got like those martians
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
They still throw a T Zone marathon on Halloween. It’s on in the background at about every party I’ve been to here. Rod could write a tight short story.
Reminder… take a guess where the first fib is on this sucker? (23.6% retrace of the 10/11/07 top to the 11/21/08 bottom?)?
940.
We got a ways to go, ovah heah.
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The nikkei bounced between 15k-20k for ten years. ::Yawn::
Amazing.
Here’s another fascinating fact for the permabear neverbounces…
Top to bottom on the above retrace dates?
We were down 2 basis points away from a full 53%.
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Thunderpup Says:
“Fun fact: We’re at nearly the same damn place we were on S&P as we were way back on October 12.”
And the number of NYSE stocks making new weekly lows is 143 now vs 2900 then. Does THAT tell you something?
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-newhinyse-newhighs-20081204.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar
These guys have some balls buying into today’s news.
If we get over SPX 870 I’ll get long 🙁
How about that Nasdaq?
-DT
mrkcbill-
Go to hell.
However, the 17 points does seem a little rich. I like 62 to 47.
BTW ~ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmFM8MepDjE
market has some sort of persistant bid, XLF holding. SKF getting crushed. FXI very strong, could it be that Yao Ming led us into the abyss and will in turn bring us out? sounds like another trap to me. keep in mind there were a few +40% moves in the 30’s. I’d be curious how many Fund managers are now chasing perfomance as they are lagging.
Treasuries turning the corner, hopefully.
Short covering rally
it’s time to buy oil.
A close over 43 for TBT will signal a bounce is in the works.
I could watch T-zone all day – there are some important life lessons Rod gave us all. When faced with real-life Talking Tyna situations, for instance, I ask “What would Telly Savalas do?”
Stick with the game plan, we’re turning lower.
Rod could write a tight short story.
Quite literally, the Master.
You keep denying this, but I insist that you are “in the Business” out there.
I am forwarding you a sitcom pilot treatment about a brash young man from Brooklyn dominating a downtown brokerage house office with comic quips and flying objects.
It’s got “Must See Thursday” written all over it.
Do you think Chris Russo is too old for the part?
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mrkcbill, I’ve got tickets to the game.
OU will stomp the Tigers in the chest then stand on their neck so hard they will decide to drop their football program altogether. After this, they will then immediately retire Daniels jersey as a reminder to future generations, and burn the rest of their equipment in their own end-zone. These pyres will burn for 3 days pissing off the Hunt family who will cancel all future college activities at Chiefs stadium.
Donny sells UYG after it jerked me off for a mild gain. Reignites his position in DUG at 40.20.
Time for another winner.
if no one is manipulating the market, i can not believe what the market is doing now
all the day traders formed some kind of conspiracy?
the kid,
LOL
I do love Sooner passion…. MU is snake in the grass..they have a lot of guys going to play on Sunday.
This is real championship for Tigers…just another primetime game for Sooners.
Clark Hunt needs to pull his head out of ass and make Stoops an offer to come in and run all football operations.
DT — 54.5% drop from October 31st, 2007 to 11/21/08 bottom on NDX.
First fib?
1305 or so.
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This market is crazy. My guess they are sucking in all the bulls to rip thier face off into the close.
I’m staying short
Hey Sr. your PFE bounced back!
Jake,
I am in “the business” in only the most tangential of ways, tho I get invited to a lot of parties. And I did win an Emmy.
I had a drink w/Chris Russo many, MANY years ago, btw. He had a 7Up as I recall, and with his truly “Encyclopedia Wore Tennis Shoes” recall of the most obscure sports facts, I figured he was on some kind of medication.
Send that script on down.
I will guarantee you I’ve seen worse.