During the beginning of 2008, most of you thought I was nuts for being so bearish. My largest positions were [[FXP]] , [[SRS]] and [[SKF]] , following a late 2007 beat down being long Hansen Natural Corporation [[HANS]] , NutriSystem Inc. [[NTRI]] and Buffalo Wild Wings [[BWLD]] . After years of being bullish, I promptly switched to the dark side after seeing signs of excess in China, Europe and of course here in the states.
During the first month of 2008, I fucking nailed the market, making more than 20%, inside of a few short weeks. I was betting against ag and oil in a big way, via short Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] and long [[SMN]] and [[DUG]] . My cost basis on SMN was as low as $27, same with DUG.
I was shorting POT at $220 and MON @ $135.
In addition, I had big bets against chinese stocks, including China Mobile Ltd. (ADR) [[CHL]] and China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) [[LFC]] .
After a rally in the markets, during Feb-April, everyone jumped back on the global growth train, bidding up shares of commodity and engineering stocks. They even bid up banks.
I got lit aflame during those months, giving back nearly all of my year to date gains.
However, with egregious fervor, I shorted banks stocks with impunity, including BSC, LEH, Morgan Stanley [[MS]] , Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] and a variety of regionals like First Midwest Bancorp, Inc. [[FMBI]] , Valley National Bancorp [[VLY]] , Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] and PacWest Bancorp [[PACW]] . Also, I had heavy positions in all of the inverse etf’s, throwing some new ones into the mix: [[REW]] , [[EFU]] and [[EEV]] .
After some monster wins, following the Bear collapse, the market rallied again. Knowing it was all bullshit, I weathered the storm and kept averaging into my ag and bank shorts. Unfortunately, I could not deal with the fuckers who operate SMN or POT, for they were operated by the devil himself. I ended up closing out both positions for big losses.
No worries, there was still LEH to lean on.
I did a lot of research into the banks and selected “The Four Horseman of Certain Death,” which included [[FED]] , [[DSL]] , Corus Bankshares, Inc. [[CORS]] and First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] . Needless to say, over the next few months, I banked ridiculous coin, shorting the shit out of weak banks.
After that, the market tore my face off during an egregious August rally. I waited patiently and began placing big bets against ‘global growth’ plays, including Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , Terex Corporation [[TEX]] , Caterpillar Inc. [[CAT]] , Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. [[MLM]] and Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. [[JEC]] .
When Fannie and Freddie got busted out, the market began to change. As a short seller, I was encouraged to press my bets, even making [un]fortune cookies for Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] and LEH—taking down monster short positions in both names, north of $40.
I levered up and shorted all I could in any bank that had exposure to FNM, FRE or LEH, thinking they (LEH) would go belly up. I shorted AXA (ADR) [[AXA]] , Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] , CapitalSource, Inc. [[CSE]] , PacWest Bancorp [[PACW]] , Janus Capital Group Inc. [[JNS]] and even a casino Las Vegas Sands Corp. [[LVS]] .
I ended up riding LEH down to the high single digits, before covering. Following the LEH collapse, the whole system was in jeopardy. There were rumors that Morgan Stanley [[MS]] , Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] could be next. The gov’t cheese makers would have none of that.
Aside from Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] and Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] , I actually lost money on my last round of shorts, due to government fuckery. They banned short selling, offered a bailout and tried to manipulate the markets higher. In hindsight, that sign of desperation was a prelude of the crash to come.
Over the past month, I am batting like .666 on the ridiculous string of market crashes/massive melt ups. I had some shorts in a variety of auto plays, like AmeriCredit Corp. [[ACF]] , AutoNation, Inc. [[AN]] and Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , but quickly ditched them, for fear of getting squeezed. I’ve maintained intermittent positions in [[SRS]] , [[SKF]] and [[FXP]] , in between crashes. I’ve been hurt just a few days this month, like yesterday, being long stocks—thinking we are at a level where it makes sense to build long positions.
However, after yesterday’s debacle, again, I was reminded of the unique situation this market and country is in. I cannot believe we will stop going lower, because “we are low enough” anymore. Looking back on my trading success this year, one thing is abundantly clear: do not trust the bull, for it is made from chocolate and it will begin to melt as soon as the temperature rises.
Thinking over the state of the markets, I have no intentions of building long term long positions. Any long on my sheets will be for a trade and trade only. Moreover, I will keep my bias to the downside, until we see legitimate signs of a real economic turn.
NOTE: This is sort of a rehash of my year or thinking out loud.
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oh God, we can only hope.
Whats the era! Damnit I need to know. Develop it more.
All SDP holders: If SDP does not break through it’s triangle decisevly tomorrow on volume(doesn’t take much) then I am going to sell my entire position and take profits as all my buys are green and profits are substantial. If we don’t get a market plunge tomorrow I’m going to stay in cash until the 28th for a confirmed short term bottom and then deploy longs for a brief counter trend rally. When the rally runs it’s course my main SHORT play will again be the utility sector for the reasons I’ve mentioned. I do not expect the $UTIL to go higher than 414 at which point I will go SHORT again. It is my opinion that if the crash does not occur tomorrow or next Tuesday that the counter trend rally will not be from the intermediate bottom and will be no more than 8 to 10 trading days and we will then reverse and go to a new crash low which will finally establish an intermediate bottom for a real multi-month counter trend rally. I still believe that we have not seen the capitulation low that will form an intermediate bottom that will sustain a multi month counter trend rally of a least a 50% retracement to the 10/07 high. Without a capitulation low tomorrow or Tuesday next week risk will remain extremely high until mid November which would be my next best guess for a capitulation low. Hope those of you that picked up some SDP early today for the move made or make some coin. Good luck!
All right boys. Todays action was simply too hard on Investor Donny’s ticker, and he convinced Trader Donny to park 100% in cash and retire for the evening. This of course, after another Victory, of 5.5%. So tonight, No Speeding, No Sex, No Wine, No 4 letter words … tonight, both Donny’s sleep well.
Trader Donny has banked perverted coin the last 2 weeks.
BTW, I found this on Bloomberg:
Roubini Says `Panic’ May Force Market Shutdown
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) — Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.
“We’ve reached a situation of sheer panic,” Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. “There will be massive dumping of assets” and “hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,” he said.
“Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger,” Roubini said at the Hedge 2008 conference. “We’re seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds,” and “don’t be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days,” he said.
THE COOKIE IS BACK!!!
Donny, Congrats. Remember: 1) avoid hubris, 2) Roubini is pushing his luck, and most importantly 3) Avoid that killer trade with your name on it. Good Night…
DD … If you believe the market is gonna crash, why would you buy SDP? It trades at an incredibly low volume, and it has a lower beta than other inverse ETFs.
I just don’t think you really know what you’re talking about.
Donny
Roubini makes things up out of thin air. He’s a publicity jock, that’s all.
j
I don’t think he’s asking all of these outlets to come on to give his takes…the guy is smart as fuck and doesn’t talk his book like all of these Jack Welch, Warren Buffet fuckers. Nouriel[sic] is in high demand.
when do you deploy the first of your LEH shorts… I mean, your LM shorts?
Mrk:
He’s giving widely pessimistic views at the moment and scaring the shit out of people.
Why would we need to close down the fucking markets for a while. that’s the stupidest thing I have ever heard. the markets are functioning fine as far as equity and currency markets go.
Why not close down debt markets which is where the real problem lies? That would be a stupid idea, right?
His loss estimates are now 4 times what the IMF estimates. I have a sense of where the IMF got it’s figures. Where did Roubini get his, out of his arse?
Damn Japan just broke below 8000. $/YEN @ 95.92.
This is fuckin’ awesome.
___
Fuck you Donny. I’m making plenty on SDP. I posted my buys previously and I’m not doing it again. In case you haven’t noticed it moves about 12% a day. That’s enough beta for me. You play in your sandbox and I’ll play in mind. Asshole.
S&P down 30pts today was equivalent of sawing through muscle and bone… the last 80-90pt drop was still cutting through fat.
If the idiots do not stop this CDS machine from chewing through credit-spreads, get ready for more pain.
I will go 70% long stocks the day they announce a moratorium on any new CDS purchase (equivalent of shorting credit…which has no uptick rule, locate requirement, or margin/collateral posting…for the most part). Until then, this market is the equivalent of a liquid pool with an open drain…they can write more debt/cds faster than the fed can print money. Thoughts?
Yes dog
Japan is the problem. As usual they only ever react once there is a meltdown.
Nouriel Roubini does not run a prime brokerage and is not a hedge fund expert. He might be right, but it would likely just be a coincidence, as opposed to any special insight.
I’m bearish, but CDS is the biggest thing driving the market. if CDS/credit spreads continues devaluing bond portfolios and craters the insurance companies, that kills the last major provider of credit to corporate America. Then you have something to worry about.
TP <= works for one
Jake – OUTRAGEOUS!
“I’m about to put you in a 2×2 matrix…You’re in the lower right quadrant” awesome
“M&A! M&A!”
Has anyone seen a 1 yr chart of LVS ? $148 to $8.
Have any of you stayed at the Venetian/Venezia/Palazzo ?
Pretty impressive to say the least. If they go under I would love to buy it – the hotel and casino, not the stock. Imagine being able to pick all that up for like $500 mil or less. Once the economy recovers you could probably make back all your money in like 2 or 3 years. Vegas will always be there. Times are tough but this will end soon or maybe not.
One last post…. Fly or anyone….
Anyone find it suspicious that they supposedly settled hundreds of billions in Lehman CDS, with massive dislocation in equities simultaneously….
yet we still do not really know who won and who lost…and how much? Who is technically insolvent from this? And suddenly Liddy at AIG says “$123bln may not be enough money”. Coincidence? Seems awfully suspicious.
the fly, and all . this site is a tonic, a fuckin’ cool, tall, sweet drink- my kind thanks. you girls are top shelf.
off to sell apples.
Whatever you say … knock the leather off the ball. But good luck trying to dump your “9500 shares” (about 18% of the avg daily volume) if we do have an event like Roubini warns of, and there’s a mad rush to the doors.
TP
I really don’t see what the problem is about CDS’s. If people are prepared to put their money on a CDO play it actually helps measure the value of a particular line of credit.
Great post Fly. My thoughs also.
TP
Lehman had 100’s of billions in equities to unwind. It is not a coincidence that the market collapsed after their demise.
Donny the SDP is a 2X SHORT ETF. If the market crashes I don’t have to get out. The idiots shorting SDP have to get out. What are you smoking?
What equities did they have, FLY. Their net position would have been very small over all in terms of straight market risk.
great recap
Fly…nice recap..wild ride,historic ride.
For all you newbies..just know Fly Fucker hasn’t slept in 48 hours..he is definitely in his bunker figuring this shit out. A paradigm shift indeed. Can’t wait to read it.
Paulson planned all this with his buddies. They are sitting on billions ready to buy it all when the markets crash to 5000. He let LEH fail in order to dislocate the markets and cause this crisis.
It unfathomable that Paulson would have NOT know known what effect LEHs BK would have on the markets. The guy has spent his whole life on Wall Street. He knew what GS had on their books. He would have known what LEH had. He allowed this to happen to create this mess so that his buddies will clean up at the bottom. Paulson will leave Treasury Jan 20 and on Jan 21st he will announce he is joining a PE company which ends up buying banks assets on the cheap. He planned all this to make billions down the road. PAULSON = LEX LUTHOR.
DEVILDOG V DONNY DeathMatch. Coming to PPV this Saturday live from the MGM Grand in Vegas.
thanks fly.
there won’t be a stock left in the usa worth over $2 before long, and that includes brk-a
CAP, that would make my day.
Sony warns and the Fly….flies away
Can someone explain fly’s comment
Lehman had 100’s of billions in equities to unwind. It is not a coincidence that the market collapsed after their demise.
As the unwinding shouldn’t have a big effect on the market as their net position would have been small.
Options books? they would have had long and short positions to trade out. Net effect not much.
Where am I wrong here?
CAP, you are amazing. You figured it out. A man with a gift for you will be showing up on your doorstep in the next hour. Please welcome him.
-Cap
You think Paulson does this shit for the camera time?Good post.
A year to remember indeed.
Note: You’re still at the top of the list for the stock of the year contest.
The whole market is built on a foundation of fart-filled baloons. LEH, AIG, hedgies, name it. Fart filled baloons I tell you.
So let me get this straight.
Fly is now a bear. Devildog is now a bull.
And then there is the issue of the young chap peforming cunnilingus on himself.
Cap
Paulson was also behind 911 so make a fortune shorting the airline stocks. You’re now officially a Truther.
i have to ask what the hell is that new PG post? I gave it 5 Stars. Course I wouldnt click any links for fear that it would melt my Mac.
El, I think you need to reread my SDP post. It is very bearish. I’m a very long term BEAR for at least the next 10 years, however, there will be rallies due to the never ending bullshit form wall street. We could still get the plunge tomorrow based the raping Japan is getting right now and the big unwind of the carry trade. YEN now at a 13 year high versus the $. If you read my SDP post carefully, I said I was still expecting a plunge tomorrow, 10/28 or mid November. If not tomorrow I’ll take my SDP profits off the table and reload at a lower price.
If we’re going to be linking to funnyordie:
Padame and Office Space’s own Pam have a solution for the financial crisis.
Does anyone know how the Ultrahort ETFs cover their counterparty risks?
I read that the advisor covered the LEH losses “To the extent any fund has losses as a result of Lehman Brothers being a counterparty, the Advisor will cover any such losses.”
Would they survive a complete meltdown?
Asia sucking again. Dax set to suck again.
FYI – TD Ameritrade’s systems are down. No web, no phone, no broker support. They said it should be back in 90 mins.
Never happened before. Strange.
Can you imagine if you were trying to trade overseas?
I fucking love IBC!!!
Fly DO NOT give up! We will both make a killing with MOS soon enough!
Thunderpup, that big sucking sound is, in fact, coming from across the pond.
Buy the banks!!! (pleease?)
You are all in a computer generated bear market where there is no place to run or hide. Your inverse ETF havens can go to zero, you know.
Trust no one.
.666, the signs are everywhere.
I have a theory. Other than stock market fluctuations, it seems other asset classes like bonds and currencies are seeing huge volatility while real estate across the globe is crashing. Whole countries are going BK – Iceland. The Aussie Dollar has dropped like 40% in a few short months. The period 2003-2007 was one of low volatility in asset classes. Therefore banks and other financial institutions levered up to the hilt. Now with this massive dislocation in the markets, these banks and financial institutions are losing their asses. The only way to avoid getting wiped out is to unwind everything and move to cash or treasuries.
I am seeing currencies move 10% in a single day. Imagine being a financial institution levered up only 10-1 on a currency. A single 10% move against you wipes you out. We are at a point where financial companies around the globe are being cleaned out on a daily basis. The losses are compounding at such an astronomical rate that governments around the world do not have the financial resources to fix the problem.
Every loss creates another loss which is even bigger which in turn creates another even bigger loss. Companies across the globe are intertwined via derivatives hence losses for one passes on to another which passes on to yet another and they keep getting bigger as they are passed along the chain. Hence I think what we are seeing is a complete melt down of the entire global financial system.
It seems this process probably started early on in the year but has gained momentum with the demise of LEH. The only real way to fix this issue would be to shut down all the financial markets across the globe. Unless this happens I fear the Dow could drop to 1000 before the year is over. I know it sounds crazy but 6 weeks back if I told you we’d be where we currently are, you would have all called me crazy.
We thought we were so smart creating all these financial instruments. We thought we could control risk using them. It seems we have lost control of these instruments and they are in effect a Broken Arrow. We have created these little nukes that are blowing up all over the globe effectively destroying everything. Its a domino effect compounded by infinity. A financial vortex or black hole if you will. This process is in motion and there is no ‘Disable ‘Switch or something to that effect.
Personally I think there is no point trying to game these markets. Its going to end badly either way. When this is all over we are going to have to build a new financial system from ground up. The good news is I will probably be able to buy the VENETIAN for a loaf of bread and a bag of rice.
CAP,
Seems like Bill Cara came to your conclusions early this morning.
Good reading.http://www.billcara.com/archives/2008/10/caras_commentary_community_cha_219.html#more
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2008/10/caras_commentary_community_cha_219.html#more
CAP, good post. Now you know why I’ve been talking about a GREATER GREAT DEPRESSION and DOW 1500 in 2015.
friggin hilarious…
Neo is right.
CAP, congrats. You have identified what “we” have known all along: derivatives are the “virus” that will infect the world with the black plague of financial death.
Disclosure: Warren is one of “us”.
You guys are scaring the livin’ daylights out of me with all this market meltdown / end of the world crap. I’m gonna change my name first thing in the morning. Yep. I think I’m gonna do that.
Holy crap, this Denninger guy is going off! End of an era or end of days?
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/626-To-Our-Government-CUT-IT-OUT-NOW.html
Hyperdeflation:
All assets are going to zero, except the dollar of course, whose value will be infinite.
Paradoxically, there will be an infinite supply of them.
good post. weird that i remember most of that as it unfolded daily.
Every Mr. and Mrs. Watanabe in Japan is getting a carry trade margin call right now.
I think I’m going to get my plunge prediction tomorrow. Glad I held to my convictions on SDP over the last couple of days as the reversals were starting to piss me off. Glad I learned to never retreat under fire. SDP holders prepare for a BIG payday tomorrow thru 10/28.
Every Mr. and Mrs. Watanabe in Japan is getting a carry trade margin call right now.
Which is why I think they may actually try to intervene in the currency markets pretty soon. If they do it could turn the stock market around a little.
Dog:
Do you ever sleep? What parts are you from?
Futes:
DOW -366
S&P -38.60
NASD -30.25
$/YEN 95.23
JAPAN -812
I think the BULLS are going to wake up to a major heart attack or the sword of death that I mentioned after the close yesterday.
j, Dallas, Texas. Learned how not to sleep during combat. What time is it at your place down under?
Looks like time for some more gov’ment action. Better get them helicopters fired up – start dropping cash
I guess we’re due for the big rate cut in the morning.
5.30 in the afternoon, Dog.
You were in combat? Where, Dog? Which wars????????
DAMN!
Futes:
DOW -400
S&P -42.50
NASD -43
$/YEN 95.35 13 YEAR HIGH FOR YEN
NIKKEI -811.90 @ 7649 -9.6% CLOSED @ LOWS
j, sounds like Foster’s time for you. Nam ’72.
I thinking open market purchases of bank common stock – the banks in the lifeboats, they already are in big to them, why not start buying shares (has to leak out though to be effective) – need to stabilize our markets so international markets begin to stablize and we buy more time to clean up mortgage messes (if that is possible), get regionals cleaned up, and not have any more cds problems, I guess WM and Iceland banks are next up in the cds parade.
I thought my YM quotes were broken. Came here to make sure it really was down four hundo. Tomorrow’s gonna be like Christmas. Margined up to my balls on SKF, SRS, QID. Good luck all, and somebody please lock all government officials in a room so this shit can play out, “free market” style.
No rate cut in the morning. Would look too desperate and make things worse. We will make new lows tomorrow. 50 basis point cut minimum at the meeting…maybe more.
There’s been so many wars, which is why I had to ask. 🙂
I shorted euro/yen at 123.50ish and just bought it back.
Just sold Euro straight.
I think Europe could cut tonight though as they’re in a mess. It may look desperate but who cares, we all know they’re desperate.
Europe could go 100 basis points.
SHIT $/YEN @ 94.86.
Yeah, I’m having a hard time believing that this recession will only last thru 2009, I’ve been short on and off all year, but now it is no longer fun,but I’ll add to skf tomorrow
whew, nicely played. You’re going to make out like a bandit as am I with my SDP. I’ve been holding my balls for the BIG payoff for the last 5 days. They almost shook me out.
the japs are fucking crazy. they could easily intervene here and try to hold up the Yen. they are doing exactly what they did in the 90’s which is nothing until; it’s too late. The fucking idiots think their rates are already too low and they have inflation.
Hopefully Treasury is taking advantage of the situation and selling as much as they can now, eventually we be able to pay it back with inflationary dollars
futes -450
jerome kerviel redux
at this rate the nikkei goes to zero by Halloween.
Futes down 366.
100 point rally from the low…bull market!
Eh, whatever…
Dow down 400, how terrifying. Imagine that, when is the last time we’ve seen a 400 point move in the Dow?
Oh..right…every single day of the last few weeks. At this point, unless we’re down 1000, who cares?
The more I think about the more it doesn’t tally that this is a dollar strengthening move because of large US$ demand. I don’t really think that is the major catalyst for the dollar rally.
The major reason as I see it is exit out of the Euro, Aussie, NZ dollar and others high yielding currencies by the Asians. The strength of the yen shows that to be the case.
When a Japanese investor gets out of the Aussie he has to sell Aussie against the US$ and buy Japanese yen against the US$. The overall effect of that is to send the Aussie down against the US and cause the Yen the appreciate against the Dollar and other currencies.
FLY apparently you can’t handle the truth…learn from a pro…delte away.
devildog:
fuck you. fuck off. go fuck your mother.
^NEVERMIND^
Too many part-timers closing out their 1 or 2 day short positions and flipping long. Exactly the wrong whipsaw move. Even more perplexing is the numbers out there trying over and over and over again to game the gold stocks who buy each and every single decline. The traders that can actually hold and sit their asses down short for more than a week gain my respect. The plunge is right around the bend and yet very few can see it. Even better in my book. Very few thick skinned players willing to stick to their guns. FTR, still flying heavy (80% short S&P from 9/19 close…trimmed 20%).
Taiwan insurance companies not allowed to hold MBSes in Fannie/Freddie.
Fucking planes flying overhead at Trader,investor,Husband,and Dad mrkcbill’s..no shit..you guys know I don’t get on in the middle of night…This feels fucked up!
-Dog
Are you awake?
Will short AAPL — for the 1st time — to 60 on any strength.
Dog, are you out of the Kennel and watching this?
j
what the fuck is going on…how does Hank and boys spin this..Mom and Pop will shake out today?
Dunno Mrk
The only thing they can do is a coordinated rate cut of a material natural and they may actually save it for another day.
Personally i blame the fucking Japs as usual as those little fuckers should never be allowed to run a central bank. They are fucking hopeless in a crisis.
The Taiwanese decision is going to spook the shit outta people as it may mean the US can’t fund it’s C/A. What it means is that globalization is over.
The other problem is the US has to finance around 1.5 trillion bucks this year. If the Taiwnese are putting impediments on that road it’s over.
this is really fucked up now as the market is moving faster than they can respond.
I will cover @ 840 retest this mid-AM (from 1255 entry).
1.5 MN B/Day cut by OPEC…buy USO, DIG etc…cocksuckers may screw the pooch on my short exit perfection.
Will cover small 250 share HIT short @ stop 40 from 70 although it may ultimately go much lower
wheres my homie DD? its the end of the world and he’s sleepin.
dog;
get up. wake up
so this devildog is a vet huh? nice. this is a time when americans need to step the fuck up and not sell a damn thing and buy everything. this is exactly what every little motherfucker in the world who hates the USA has been hoping for. and it looks like were just going to let it happen.
Bullshit.
The dog, is doing exactly the right thing which is to price things accurately. If he’s wrong he cops a hiding and doesn’t go crying to anyone about it.
I suspect there will be a lot more pain ahead for tech holders. I’m not so sure about DOW buyers. I personally think the Dow is good purchase in this range. I’m buying what I know. holding short the rest. And GCI may get into the 7s…trust me, still a buy.
My foolish opinion of Risk/reward… if the DOW closes by more than 5% below 8K, then there should be a minimum sell-off of %25 and a max of 50%.
A close below 8, would be a train wreck for the world. My opinion is that the probability presently is pretty good, but I’m the furthest thing from a statistics expert.
Overnight….
Oil $64+/- Barrel after OPEC meeting…cutting 1.4mm bbd.
Dow Futures Lock-Limit Down -550
You make me feel so spring has sprung…
Remember, the market looks out 6-9 months.
I guess we are in for several years of sh-t.
The script reads:
Oversold/Crash
This is it …. crash & burn day
maybe market will close mid-day with egregious losses & not open for weeks.
and I took off most of my ultra short etf’s & bought some oils & ags … I’m about to get decapitated
This is Flecks friend who he calls ‘Lord of the Dark Matter’. The guy is an expert in the plumbing of finance and was way out front of the current financial debacle. When Fleck said one month ago that the financial disaster was now behind us, the LODM said “not by a long shot”.
Yesterday he checked in with this:
“Bill, greetings from Barbados. I have managed to tune out for an entire week, but logged in just now to check the plumbing, and having done so thought I should drop you a line to say I’m not bearish enough. Speak when I am back. Best wishes always.”
CNBC: “everything is LIMIT DOWN”.
So Cramer was right?
DEVILDOG
Lets get a few things straight…
1) You are not The Fly…you never were, you never will be
2) You are a perma-bear…like a broken clock stuck on 6:30AM (your wakeup time for school), you will be right sometimes and wrong most of the time.
3) When the clock does circle around to 6:30AM, you become, more or less, a one-hit wonder…not unlike Toni Basil with the song “Mickey”…a very gay song from the 80’s, about 20 years before you were born.
4) You are in the Fly’s house (or in his blog anyway…he would never invite you into his house, or at least not until you are completely potty trained) as an invited guest. So STFU and stop acting like a complete fuctard. OK?
RC
DD,
Thanks again for SDP! I would expect to get out 120ish+ today on it. 30-40 points in a DAY?
YOU ARE INDEED THE MAN!
Dog has been right so far so leave the kid alone RC. He deserves adulation for the moment. I have grown to like the dogs pleadings, that the market is heading lower.
He like an ingrown toe nail. Always there to remind you of the other side.
So you STFU
to change the subject to Politics from the fucktarded markets:
McCain gets the endorsement that may propel him past Obama … the French hate the guy , which is the best Costanza endorsement he could have hoped for
so this devildog is a vet huh? nice. this is a time when americans need to step the fuck up and not sell a damn thing and buy everything. this is exactly what every little motherfucker in the world who hates the USA has been hoping for. and it looks like were just going to let it happen.
Get a load of this cocksucking creep. He wouldn’t be saying anything if the DOg was losing money. I guess that would be patriotic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_82SPkrB-SE
and the followup.
now you’re a man!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpGVsiS7bBw
Well I gave a gallon of water and half a loaf of bread.
Off to Ragin’s ranch…
gave = have
ffs bring back the edit.
Juice,
You’re clearly retarded and have the mentality that led to this. Heaven forbid foreign governments like and respect our president who doesn’t have to pretend to be a tough-guy cowboy.
You must have some tiny balls. Good thing the time of the Neocons is coming to a delightful, fiery end.
This is it. Expect all equities to be down 20%. Trading will halt today.
Glad to be long SKF.
If you have no hedges, I am sorry you didn’t heed my warnings. As for me, I am sorry to be long anything.
Hey, at least we are making history. You can tell the Grandkids about this shit, years from now.
These fucking banking homos need to be hung from lamp posts.
Dow futures down 600??…Theres something else going on here. We have already priced in a decline of over 40% in S&P 500 companies’ revenues. The prior worst ever recession saw a decline of 32%.
DB:
Are you Vince Farrell?
This is the end, baby. When the end comes, the Dow goes to zero and shit (Fly is eating popcorn).
Fuck hedges down here.
No pain, No gain!
DB, they have been coming in every night for the past month and manipulating the market using the futures.
what do you mean banking homo?
Barney Frank told me everything was fine a couple of years ago.
Isnt he an expert?
fly, do you plan on taking off any hedges today?
I mean down 1000, 2000…
do you have anything in mind?
fuck fucking fucked
No.
The point of the hedges is to be hedged, not to make money on them. It sounds weird,because it is.
If anything, I will use the rest of my cash to scalp trades.
FLY;
I was an Imbecile for doing your latest message on Monday. I am hedged a little QLD/QID. Anything can happen. Your have to do things you can control. Not make any predictions. For me will trade ETF’s. They offer a quick hedge and you don’t have to read fake earning reports and lies the fuckers write.
Fly why do you think they will clsoe the market is there a limit down rule?
Hey guys, just got my PS3, anyone want to play?
Coffee? Check, Asprin? Check, Vomit Can? Check
He stole my Stooges line.
I see a feint glimmer of hope for a gold long. Should have been down more on liquidation and it’s not so It bears watching IMO.
Too late to short for a daytrade.
anyone want to bet the market closes flattish today, 200 point either way?
What odds am i offered?
Take a poll, who’s bearish and who’s bullish?
Yesterday the japs had a down day and the US closed up. The fall in the jap market is to do with their own position and the fact that the government is doing nothing to stem the tide such as lowering rates. They morons did that last time and they’re doing it again when they should be going to ZIRP immediately.
I’m going to look to buy later today.
All of you stock monkey’s a bearish… every single one of you. There’s bearish talk on every blog I’ve seen.
gold well off its bottom
They let the currency strengthen when they should have been intervening or should have shown a sign of intervention today and as usual the moronic japs did nothing.
today is a buying day.
Gold is off it’s bottom, Euro has come back a little, Euro yen is well of its bottom which is the liquidity market I use.
Dog,
This is setting up to be one of your best calls. Wednesday morning we talked about how Friday was going to be a blood bath. Good call.
And thank you to all of you pikers who thought that yesterday’s bullshit rally was the bottom.
Can anyone say LOCK LIMIT DOWM
J:
Why don’t you set the same terms CAP did yesterday?
DOWN sorry
If J sets the same terms as Cap I predict a sudden surge in visits to chiropractors.
what did he do? Remind me.
Fuck me! I bet we hit the 10% limit after open easily…
J
We all know that you and the FLY are bullish. So are you calling this the bottom?
Is this the capitulation that everyone is waiting for?
Art CAshen said it would be quick and fierce,is this it?
Let me know FLY. Because I really don’t see any reason to not stay a bear like I have for over a year now
If J doesn’t, I’ll take one for the team.
What the fuck, it gave us a 500-point rally that lasted for an hour. That means it worked better than anything Paulson and Bernanke have come up with, and cost a fuck of a lot less than the trillions they’ve blown.
After lock limit down, how long will the close the exchange?
Terribly shoddy reporting on CNBC this morning.
“Futures are limit down”
“Futures are limit down”
“Futures are limit down”
“Futures are limit down”
That’s all they keep repeating yet make no mention of the fact that European markets are well off their lows. Yes, down 8% or so but there is no effort whatsoever made to keep things in perspective.
They are doing an excellent job at scaring the bejesus out of everyone.
Stock monkeys only look at stocks and don’t watch the macro … has been my experience. You doofuses should watch the macros sometimes as that drives the stocks.
TMoe.
Yea, think we/re getting close top the bottom. Between here and mid Nov.
I’m buying a 1/3 of my posy today. and add in with time.
This is Japan’s problem, not the US. Same thing happened in he 90’s and the US stock market ignored the little fucks.
This will cause even more panic with the central and get them to lower rates quicker and more.
The Japs will go to zirp next week is my bet but then you never know with those fuckers as they’re too stupid to think financial stuff.
How about the “revolution blog” idea?
Fire it up.
-DT
That’s right steph, they ignorant pricks are scaring the shit out of everyone which is something to consider.
Today was Jap capitulation day and hopefully that shithead government learns something from this.
Gannett reported $1.64 billion in qtrly earnings this morning, the gall of these people….Making money, the absurdity of it all.
Fuck these Wall Street FUCKS:
http://www.myconfinedspace.com/2008/09/29/jump-you-fuckers/
I am long with FLY man late in the afternoon, I bet we hit the 10% limit and then start moving sideways after the restart…
Dow is going to 100
Cashin’s Note of the Day:
Consensus – Plan your work and work your plan. These are the kind of days when the true professional shines. As the Sgt-Major said in “Zulu” – “Steady boys!” Stay nimble and alert. Opportunity is at hand.
Dont get caught short when they close the market, and then reopen after announcing $1MM for every man woman child plus a coupon for a new baked sandwich at Dominoes
How much CDS crap does Japan own? Is Japan losing jobs like we are? Or are their problems completely tied to failed monetary policy? I am suspect. I do see some healthy companies being beaten down, making for some interesting buys soon, but if you take a Macro look the entire world is fucked right now including the US. Not to say we won’t lead the pack out of this, but I think it will be a long time. I remain a bear
T Moe:
Do you actually read my blog, or just look at the pretty letter?
Fucking idiot.
My largest position is SKF.
Skates
What a stupid site. Post that shit there
Fly
The idots are the people holding NOV and MOS all the way down. Kudos holding SKF
But you’ve been buying all week
I see GLD about to go unchanged. Euro rising now vs dollar and could be a good omen for a later bounce.
Fly, what do you think about taking the hedge 1/3 off at the open, ovah heah?
I’m thinking very hard on that.
________
This Black Friday – history. Some shorts will make a fortune here. 10% down means one hour close for market. We need a 900 point rally.
Yea Moe, But the fucking japs have stared at this like a bunch of gay deer in headlights as they always do.
Today we saw their investors finally capitulating and getting out of everything which is why the US dollar appears to be strengthening when its really not. It’s the crosses giving that appearance. Even gold…. think gold Yen.
The only currency that’s really fallen by itself is the pound because it’s a heap of shit.
The yen strength against everything ought to be telling those fucks to get moving with monetary policy but as usual the silly monoculture can’t think and they will wreck the economy before moving. I know them like the back of my hand.
they look at CPI and think.
o infration is to high. “We cawnt morve intest wates befor CPRI com lower”.
meanwhile the economy has tanked.
I figured we would get the bounce late yesterday. thats why I covered my shorts at about 11:30 pst. But I went short at the end of the day. Bought a shit load of SPY puts- strike 95. Should be sitting pretty today. Also shorted Goldman. I know its going against Buffet, but their business model is done and they will make a lot less money as a bank
I’m calling a near term bottom on the IBC discussions with that felatiation discussion yeserday. Hattip er tip to CAP.
I think we can go lower in the future, but can’t imagine how. That would indeed be uncharted territory.
I’m asking for a bank holiday here. Don’t even open the market. I don’t want shit to distract me from my daily mission, of shooting mofo’s through both kneecaps, with small caliber projectiles.
Hey J:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=2359
Search that thread to find the answers to your CAP inquiry.
Silver lining time:
Did Tim Knight get caught long, while Senor Tropicana is heavily long SKF?
Answers please.
T Moe:
Correction.
The idiots are the people who covered their shorts yesterday.
Fly, the futures!?!?! This could be my very first crash?!?!
Anyone uses Googles new browser Chrome? How do you like it?
Was that it?
No way. Sorry guys, I don’t suck D…..
Hey cap how was the self love last night? Was it satisfying? Was it a romantic dinner with yourself?
Fly,
Covered at the bottom then bought puts at the close read the post
Any value in putting a silly bid in for MOS this AM?
obviously the SKF position provides some air cover.
Fly,
My bad. i was asking the question of you NOt posting as you.
This is a manufactured panic.
Down 8% in Europe… big fuckin deal. We’ve been falling 4-6% a day lately and nobody cares. What’s an extra couple of percent? In dollar terms, a 10% crash down at these levels will destroy less wealth than some of the previous mini-crashes we saw at higher levels.
I’m not sure exactly what the trigger is today but I think Roubini’s comments might have something to do with it. I personally can’t stand that smug little fucker.
A crash today is a good thing. I’m buying all the way down. Let’s get it over and done with. 720 has been my downside target on the S&P all along… once we get to that level, I’ll be fully invested and ready for the inevitable rally.
but I think Roubini’s comments might have something to do with it.
Whats the prick saying now. he’s so smug I wish a bus hit him and broke his legs.
Fly:
Why do you like MOS so much. What is behind that trade?
mmmmfff…mmmffff…gasp…gurgle…mmmfff
Glad I sold my SRS this week around 140, was in at 80 but, ugh, 200 at the open? congrats to anyone still rollin in it!
Devil Dog-
I’m still holding those AAPL puts. That fucker goes to 70
fly,
did you say SRS would be 100 or was it 200 by Halloween??????
The PE Ratio, fuck it was 4.34 yesterday prior to this ass pounding of a morning…who would not like a stock with a 4.34 PE ratio???
Erin Burnett’s Booty Call,
Your right, there was no trigger for this. It’s all futures manipulation. Everyone called the 840 bottom, the market can’t let them all be right.
Too many call for an early turnaround after a brutal opening. That’s not true capitulation.
We want to see DJI down 1100 at 2:30PM.
On huge volume. THEN the bounce.
Look on the bright side, today could be the bottom. On the other hand we could see the big plunge Monday. I think there is a good chance we get below 7000 Monday. That could mark a tradeable bottom.
Looking at the futures, it seems to me the only reason the market rallied yesterday was because mother market wanted to humiliate me for my stupid comment. Seriously why else would we have rallied yesterday.
J – not that I need to clarify the French are 1% for McCain post … so I won’t
PNC buying the joke National City? Who is next Key?
It rallied yesterday because there were more buyers than sellers.
Well boys, I got the jar of KY out…I am lubed and ready! This is going to be a fucking hurting of a morning since I did not follow FLY and HEDGE!
You lovely people don’t need to thank me. The thatifaction of a job well done ith all I need.
DIG at 23 wow what joke. The oils will come back with a roar. Demand has not decreased that much to warrant this move
hedge funds will be liquidating like a motherfucker. no idea when it will end, but unlikely that today will do it. it ends when it ends, and until then there is no “bottom”. Throw any preconceptions about “value” out the window if you have a short term time horizon.
Ahh…dead BULLS lying in the streets outside the NYSE…smells like VICTORY. All SDP holders & AAPL SHORTS have fun. Don’t give up your positions on the cheap. I’d hold until the close and possibly even Monday for the bottom. WE will not get a bounce that holds today so don’t pull the trigger early. DOW could go to 5000 today to give you an idea of how far things could go DOWN or UP in regard to SDP. I think SDP will exceed $142. I booking my yacht for my 4 months in the Caribbean today.
God help us all.
Way too calm of an opening…
Devilled Eggs Wins!
Kudos, Marine.
_______
200
ANon:
I’m with you, too calm
A young bull and an older bull stood on a hillside, surveying a valley full of cows.
The young bull said, “lets run down there, and fuck one of those cows!”.
The old bull shook his head and said, “No. Let’s walk down, and we’ll fuck them all”.
I’m walking.
I knew 1987 … believe me, this is no 1987 … talk about a fart in a mitten, Jeesh!
Early trace back then heavy mid day liquidation
Fly
Seriously dude, I’m going with your Epic proportions rally. Not kidding. it starts today.
# Employee8 Says:
I knew 1987 … believe me, this is no 1987 … talk about a fart in a mitten, Jeesh!
October 24th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Exactly, 8. These fucking kids don’t know a fucking crash if they met her in the street. It’s been a fucking bear market at it ends today or fucking monday.
Can’t fucking believe, these kids were pussy whipped by jap housewives.
I fucking cried in 87 as I lost 1/2 my net worth that fucking day as the bank I worked for went down 50%.
this isn’t a crash you pussies. Man up.
I fucking cried in 87 as I lost 1/2 my net worth that fucking day as the bank I worked for went down 50%.
Sounds like a Lehman employee might have told you to “man up.”
__________
at 930, there was 320mln shares traded on NYSE, versus 645mln at the same time on October 10th.
half the volume? this things got no action