LIBOR rates are collapsing, soon to break 4%. Stocks are set to explode to the upside, because all of you jelly donut eaters are negative. This is, if I may be so bold, the perfect environment for an epic rally. One that tosses the deformed carcasses of grotesque short sellers into idle sewers and eliminates fair play amongst traders.
Yes, the rules have been changed and in order to survive such “Costanza like” environments, one needs to adapt. Otherwise, while “The Fly” hams it up over a nice grilled sword fish, you fuckers will be eating a roasted cigarette in a red wine reduction.
As you can see, National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] are “spastically” higher this morning, as people with intelligence quotients higher than 50 step in and gobble up shares, like a turkey pecking away at loose pieces of corn.
For the most part, banks are higher, but nothing too exciting.
The real coin is being banked in the commodity space today. On that news, I am stepping in, buying shares of Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] here, sub $12.30—as the shares are without a doubt “ghetto cheap.”
As you can see, I am banking profuse amounts of coin here. Do not dare bother me.
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POOF!
Your rally in PCU is gone, sooner than it took the ink to dry on your blog entry….
One commodity stock to look at is BHP. BHP trades as an American depositary receipt. The hedgies have absolutely creamed this stock as I bet every single one of these fuckers was long of it. The added value is that BHP uses the Australian dollar as it home currencies and that also was creamed by the hedgies falling to 30% as they were using this as a carry trade against yen.
Little to no debt. huge cash flow, oil exposure. If you love commodities down here you should make gay love to BHP.
Stop the hate Merlin.
IRX is still within its 6 week range of 1 and 10. Its near the top of the range. Danger Danger Will Robinson …. either it breaks through or we have one more selloff .. I’m thinking one more selloff before epic rally.
Scottrade put in a price target of $127 on MOS re: Cargill
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2720082.html
Back in the dungeon Merlin.
You’ve been playing with your potients again.
Financials need to get going here.
Drunken & hyper-caffeinated fund managers are back to buying the commodity space they tossed out the ground floor window just one week ago.
Cargill can substantially increase their position in MOS as of Wed the 22nd as the standstill agreement expires. MOS already contributes significantly to Cargill’s bottom line and the stock is down 80% from the summer highs making it cheaper than free hobo soup.
From MOS 10K filing:
“Standstill provisions in our Investor Rights Agreement with Cargill restrict Cargill from acquiring additional shares of our common stock from our public stockholders and taking other specified actions as a stockholder of Mosaic. These restrictions will expire on October 22, 2008. Following the expiration of the standstill period, Cargill will be free to increase its ownership interest in our common stock.”
Something to consider. Here.
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/2008/10/mosaic-nysemos-cargill-standstill.html
any thoughts on AAPL weakness
LMAO, gotta be quick around these parts.
aapl is a consumer stock. Who the fuck is going to be buying 4,000 buck computers when you’re worried about your job.
QQQQ has hardly moved too.
Excuse the ignorance but What does that mean for MOS?
So a government knob starts speaking on TV and the market starts selling off. How annoyingly predictable. Too predictable. Will not last, just a buying opportunity.
Todd Harrison
09:49:55 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Gate Sniffage!
What is this, Bizarro World? The Raiders actually WIN (despite a Herculean effort to blow it in the waning seconds) and the screens are green. Go figure–or go to work, depending on your mindset. I’m doing both, with the following vibes top of the morning:
*
As Minyans know, I began operating from the long side a few weeks ago into the heat of the meat. It wasn’t easy–and it still isn’t–but I continue to trade around my exposure as a function of time and price.
*
In that vein, I made “enough sales so I could sleep” into last week’s rally–selling the exposure I bought on dips into the rips–and I’m paring further risk into this morning’s glory.
*
Just trading, Minyans, and doing so with great humility and defined risk. The greatest wisdom is knowing that you know very little.
*
With regards to my bovine posture in the energy space, I’ll again reiterate that it’s a “counter-trend” trade, which begs lightening into strength. While my sense is that crude could trade back to $90 with relatively little effort, I’ll be feeding the ducks into it.
*
Sixteen more days until the election and–as discussed this morning–the risk of something profoundly world-altering has perhaps never been more acute. I, for one, will breathe a lot easier after the election passes and we can begin the process of “humble mea culpas.”
============
Bennet Sedacca
08:37:46 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Credit market update
I just saw a run of offerings of some of the ‘chosen’ ones.
5 year General Electric (GE) trading +480.
10 year Morgan Stanley (MS) trading at 10%.
10 year Goldman Sachs (GS) trading 83 bid, 87 offered ($ price).
10 year Bank of America (BAC) +375.
No Virginia, the credit market hasn’t thawed. One would think that given the amount of intervention/interruption that bonds would be trading much better.
But sadly, they are not. Until this changes, we stay cautious, although I must say that if i had a 10 year time horizon and never had to mark my bonds to market every day, some of these are appealing.
Ben has the greatest neck beard since George Lucas.
That’s a much too simplistic view on AAPL. Simple logic like that doesn’t make money.
So your saying AAPL will go down forever in this economy?
Financials taking it on the chin … be careful
Fly – What score is PPT giving MOS? Looking for an entry point today
no, but if it’s not working there are better plays. Consumer will lag everything else and Apple is a high cost consumer item.
let me ask you. What are you going to buy the spoiled little shits this year when you’re lucky to have job. An apple or a budget computer?
That’s a recession play and we don’t know the full story on that yet. if it tanks to egregious levels it worth taking a shot but if it doesn’t move up quickly it means its fucked.
furthermore the big dude has pancreatic cancer. Most people don’t live six months with that awful disease. How do you feel if one morning you hear the dude is is hospital. that stock would be down 30% looking for a bid as we all recall it almost went broke last time he went away.
To recreate MOS assets would cost at least 2x its current enterprise value and take 5-7 years. Same with almost all the mining/materials/resource stocks. These stocks are retardedly cheap.
It’s far more economical to acquire resource rich companies than to develop the resource base. I’ve been scaling into CLF and FCX, but they’re all acquisition targets.
Exelon for NRG is just the beginning.
Anyone seen Cramer and the dog? Where’s dog as I wanna hear a bear story just to keep me in check. that way my bullish view becomes well balanced.
WFC is very weak … I’d short it right here, right now … and I did.
Airlines delivering well this morning: short DAL and AMR.
I think we can play the range here (resistance) on DAL down to 8.00 and on AMR down to 9.50 for quick chops.
GIS is also in trouble. Short from 65.50. Will continue to short on strength. Tgt price: $60.
I liked NOV but it gapped too much so didnt touch (risk-reward not there).
-Phil
I guess I’m wrong. I guess this is the easiest market in history. Government guy speaks on TV, go short, and you’re 100% guaranteed to make money. Maybe I should go short now, that would probably serve as fodder to end the pattern.
It’s GREEN! SKFie is GREEN! Donnymeister, call Casino Security – about that DIG.
Indeed, and with volume dropping off a cliff this morning while the VIX tanks, it appears we can unclick our seatbelts and walk freely around the cabin.
-DT
AAPL sux my left nut. I had to blow out for a loss.
when do you start selling NOV ?
Ever cheerful, Denninger, out with his forecast of the Greatest Depression with an S&P target of 500.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/616-The-Folly-Of-A-Depression-Thesis.html
Wow, our Congress people are dumber than I ever imagined.
PPT scores on MOS
PPT Fundamentals
Debt/Equity 5
PEG Ratio 5
Price/Book 5
Price/Sales 5
Profit Margin 5
Sub Rosa 0
Final Score 5.00
PPT Recommendation: Strong Buy
PPT Technicals
Accumulation Distribution 1
Price Performance 1
Relative Strength 1
Volatility 3
Volume 3
Sub Rosa 0
Final Score 1.50
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell
Hybrid Score 3.25: PPT Recommendation Buy
$400 Billion in Lehman CDS payments go down tomorrow without of hitch. Bank on it.
Unsure of whether it would, those to receive payment have been frozen from taking any action to put the money to use before receiving it. Those who had to make payment have been working their asses off liquidating in the past couple weeks. Tomorrow … all that fucking cash gets moved around, then that capital comes rushing back into stocks and bonds. We’re going higher.
Eye No.
Juice,
Thanks for the link!
I did some work over the weekend. UYG may not double and will stay around 12. I don’t expect a big rally within the next 2 to 3 weeks and the market looks like it could go big in either direction. I will stick to trading QLD and QID until the market tells me to start going long ETF’s. Just the fact that I go so excited about the bear being shorter made me stop and think. When you think you know whats going on you are in for a big loss. Fuck you Mother Market big time.
You must think you are clever writing “eye no,” when in fact you are an imbecile.
That was got so excited.
Congrats to the Rays and DT.
The Red Stink Sox are not zombies after all.
May they rest in peace while I perform a zombie dance on their graves. The Rays did what my O’s were supposed to do. Dungeon dwellers for a decade, now heading to the Series. Insane.
OK, I will put a limit order for some MOS. Just bought some NAT because it is interesting. Julian Robertson just trumped all the doomsters – said the end of the world as we know it – top that!
Thanks FLY that is how I rate myself. There are more rich imbeciles on this planet than smart ones.
The homos from letter M want to go up. You’ve been warned.
And begin….
EXC is a prudent buy around $50. Obama will win with Powell’s backing and rest assured, his political self will rear its head and repay the EXC chair, director, and VP in a very egregious manner for their massive campaign contributions (they are some of his top fund-raisers). I’ve been researching presidential plays for some time. Also rest assured Obama will throw great weight behind nuclear power once in office, but has to watch his tongue for now because of the large numbers of liberal pussies he’s pandering to with wind and solar energy (which works as a supplementary energy source, but is too fickle to work alone).
Here’s the article with all the details, including Obama’s less than golden boy political moves. However he’ll do better than McCain.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22971762/
Yea and Julian was long dollar yen when it went from 145 to 112.80 in about 2 days back in the asian crisis and got fucked hard.
At the time he also thought the japanese economy was going for end of times too.
Great…now it’s Paulson’s turn to destroy the few points we gained back since “Bernacky” disappeared.
The homos from letter M want to go up. You’ve been warned.
October 20th, 2008 at 11:30 am
You lost me. What/ who are ” they”.
blew out of AAPL too @ 94 There’s your bottom.
Feel free to go long with a stop @ 93.50 now that I’m out!
Fly, let’s hope we’re both imbeciles. For we’re each banking on a massive rally in the coming days/weeks. And I’d rather be a rich imbecile that some dirt poor smart fucker.
fly talking his bullshit book again. too bad he’s wrong.
Dog.
You’re back. Dude give me a bearish tale as I wanna hear one.
The Cleaver family is on vacation. Wally and the “Beav” hope to catch some fish.
Good news. The “Beav” just caught a fish.
Much better than CNBC.
How those shorts holding up Dog?
Not sure WTFC does (showing up on LOD list) but it is a pretty cool symbol.
We’re going lower no one can pay for Lehman CDS settlement! Bank on it!
No, wait a minute, we’re going higher, Lehman CDS settlement will be great!
Wait, I’m hearing there isn’t enough money and there will be a system wide collapse!
Hold on, my sources are telling me money is flowing into stocks!
iA! Noe
On the cusp of a bullish bond market??
Did Wally ever hit Mrs. Cleaver?
Wally would never engage in violence. However, Eddie Haskell, is a different story.
Everybody shut up!…Ken Fisher’s talking on CNBC
I am
Everybody freaking go all in an an ultra short, and own it for 15 years until it hits zeros!
I’m smart.
eigh gnoe eui
true story
Sub Rosa: ?
Now What on earth could that be ?
Secret phrase for “fly brain coefficient” ?
Funny how the Rosa value is ZERO.
true story.