I know, you guys are just panicking here, with the markets cliff diving through 10,000. You must be like “OMG, ROFL, LOL, where is Fly, I’m gonna die.” It’s true, some of you doubt my stock market prowess, despite demonstrating clear superiority dozens of times, live on iBC. It doesn’t really matter; because I really don’t care.
But, you will be happy to know, I have like 3% of my capital long stocks. I have short positions flowing from my ears. I am simply steamrolling the competition, via outrageous gains today.
For you common/internet folk, have a looksy at Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] and [[SKF]] . I am mushroom clouding it, with great vigor.
In between sips of ambrosia, derived from a diamond chalice, “The Fly” is planning his next attack—this time on the long side. As you know, it would be stupid to short more, down at these levels.
The big picture, sorry to steal a non-copyrighted phrase from Mr. Big Picture himself, is the end of globalization via coordinated financial meltdown. The ramifications will be severe.
With zero leverage on the long side now, commodity stocks are getting poleaxed, especially oil. Frantic deflation is checking those turban lovers at the door of poverty. I would not be surprised to see oil south of $50. The ball is rolling downhill and it’s gaining momentum.
By the way, ABB Ltd (ADR) [[ABB]] will lose middle eastern infrastructure projects as a result of the oil collapse.
With my money, I am looking for a long idea. But, at the same time, I am not covering any shorts. However, sometime soon, I will blow out of most of my [[SRS]] , north of $105.
Hey, and it isn’t even Halloween yet!
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Will October still be a godly month for commodity stocks? Arch Coal is getting cheap.
FLY is god.It will be a 10%+ up day for him today. Just another day at the office!
Fly
How do you stop globalization? Everyone would if they could, but how exactly do you stop it. Trade barriers? they will be some, but we all know what happened with smoot hawley. Stop banks lending to each other across borders? Bullshit.
Naa. it will slow down a little simply because trade will slow, but it isn’t the end of the world as we know it.
I think the over 50% of americans that participate in the market, are going to need some drugs to calm the nerves.
Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Questcor) is a specialty pharmaceutical company that focused on providing prescription drugs for central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The Company owns and markets two commercial products: H.P. Acthar Gel (Acthar) and Doral. Acthar (repository corticotropin injection) is an injectable drug that is approved for the treatment of certain disorders with an inflammatory component, exacerbations associated with multiple sclerosis (MS), and is also used in treating patients with infantile spasm (IS), a form of refractory childhood epilepsy, and opsoclonus myoclonus syndrome, an autoimmune-related childhood neurological disorder. Doral is indicated for the treatment of insomnia, characterized by difficulty in falling asleep, frequent nocturnal awakenings, and/or early morning awakenings. As of December 31, 2007, the Company was developing medications, including QSC-001, an orally disintegrating tablet formulation of hydrocodone bitartrate and acetaminophen.
Gross Margin (TTM) 91.8%
Net Profit Margin (TTM) 67.9%
Operating Margin (TTM) 61.6%
Pretax Margin (TTM) 62.7%
Valuation Financial Strength
P/E excluding extraordinary items (TTM) 9.8x
P/E Normalized (MRFY) 13.6x
P/Sales (TTM) 5.4x
P/Tangible book (MRQ) 8.4x
P/Cash Flow (TTM) 8.8x
Current Ratio (MRQ) 4.02
Quick Ratio (MRQ) 3.88
LT Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00
Payout Ratio (TTM) 0.00
Management Effectiveness Growth
Return on Assets (TTM) 114.1%
Return on Equity (TTM) 147.4%
Return on Investments (TTM) 147.3%
Sales (5Yr) 27.7%
Earnings Per Share (EPS)(TTM) 538.4%
Dividend Growth (5Yr) —
Income Statement Per Share Data
Revenue (MRQ) 24.9M
EBITDA (MRQ) 14.3M
Earnings before taxes (MRQ) 14.4M
Net Income (MRQ) 8.8M
Normalized earnings before taxes (MRQ) 14.4M
Normalized Net Income (MRQ) 8.8M
EPS excluding extraordinary items (TTM) 0.71
EPS Normalized (MRFY) 0.51
Rev per share (TTM) 1.18
BV per share (MRQ) 0.85
Tangible BV per share (MRQ) 0.79
Cash per share (MRQ) 0.56
Cash flow per share (TTM) 0.72
Indicated Annual Dividend (US) 0.00
Short Interest
Shares Short (Current Month) 7.5M
Short Ratio 7.8x
Short Interest as % of Float 12.12%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 8.1M
*Data updated twice a month by the 18th and 29th respectively
The commodity rally has been delayed until NEXT October.
Sorry, you didn’t get the memo.
good work on your shorts fly. Just leave the big thinking outside though. You’re short term trader and we don’t want you getting big ideas about you starting to think you’re a long term strategist of some sort.
J:
Without banks to finance “stuff,” globalization will be non-existent.
Actually, you are wrong.
I am a much better long term investor, than short term.
Here, take a look at my predictions for 2008. Tell me how I am doing, so far.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/category/predictions-for-2008/
Who doubts my time machine?
That’s it, I am calling a short term bottom…
Why you ask? This…The…Crammer…Crash….
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/
My long ideas
TGT
SLV
V
short EEV/long FXI
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/
Maybe a short term bottom is in?
Yo, Fly how much are you up this year and what’s your target for the SP?
Fly:
A chinese exporter uses Citibank (if it’s still around) to finance it’s trade to the US and Citibank is on the other side.
In point of fact the big global banks- those still around could make oodles of cash.
Yea I saw them .. pretty good stuff. But you may set the thesis for the year and trade that way unless things change , but your still a short term guy. You’re a buy and hold to the end of time sorta dude, are you?
Can we have you early predictions for 09.
Sell them at a premium before jan 31st. LOL.
You around in the early 90’s debacle. That was bad, but we did get out of it.
I think someone should bring a dog to the trading floor as a “fear indicator”. My guess is that the dog would passout from the smell.
I smell so bad lately, I kill more dogs than Vick
How about CPB for a long idea
Now I’m scared. Maybe I should cover.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/
There WILL be a bounce in the next 48 hours. I’m thinking an EEV short will net at least a 30% return when it happens. I’m gonna start nibbling at it on the short side.
FLY: can you explain why KRE is only down 4%. Are banks still not dead?
Charlie, your bounce will be from SPX 1000 to 1030.
The elections will be gay. Yep
Taxes will go up. Yep
Emerging markets will get their teeth kicked in, especially “BRIC.” Yep
Commodity prices will remain robust, as food supplies dwindle. Nope
Oil will keep a tight range of $75-90. nope
Natural gas will break $10. yep
Gold will break $1,000. yep, but not for long. 1/2 point there.
Two major financial institutions will fail. Wrong. More did.
There will be mergers in the brokerage sector. Yep but forced 1/2 point there
Agriculture stocks will outperform in the first half, then dive in the 2nd. Yep
Semiconductor stocks will bore investors to death. nope
(CC: 0.5851 +2.65%) will file for bankruptcy protection. nope
(HOV: 6.22 -17.07%) will file for bankruptcy protection. Not yet wrong
Stem cell stocks will gain momentum, with strong Democratic poll showings. Relatively 1/2 point there
Utilities will continue to outperform, as old people look for yield. Dunno o
(PFE: 18.12 -4.63%) will make a big acquisition. Wrong
Many solar burrito stocks will drop by 50%, before recovering. Yep
(RIMM: 55.95 -8.22%) will get hit hard, in the second half of 2008. Yep
(AAPL: 91.138 -6.11%) will do well. Wrong
(GOOG: 366.91 -5.17%) will lose mojo. Yep
The Dow Jones will fall by 15%. Wrong
The Nasdaq will fall by 15-20%. Wrong
“The Fly” will still bank coin, despite spending too much time talking to retards on the internets. Yep
Finally, iBankCoin.com will be worth millions. Wrong
Fly
I have your right and wrong count
10 1/2 right 11 wrong.
Sorry dude it’s still 50:50.
Oh Fuck, please no commodity talk.
Outlook on REITs continues to look bad… whats more likely in 2-3 weeks – SRS at 90 or 125?
j,
Reading you critique The Fly is like watching a monkey smoke a cigar.
Thanks for the laugh.
And thanks, again, for leaving our country.
Anon … GGP is not going to survive.
That Reggie guy nailed that GGP call.
Remind me to blogroll him.
J is a fucking monkey smoking a cigar.
Nice!
There’s no floor for commodities/materials. They’re pricing in a total collapse in prices.
500 points… yawn.
Wake me up when we’re at Dow 8,500 and things get interesting.
-DT
Fly
Dude, don’t be like that. You asked me to look at your predictions to see what i thought. That was an honest appraisal of the thing. Don’t be rude.
Fly,
We’re going to get a rate cut soon right?
How do you think your auto shorts will react? I’m thinking there wouldn’t be much relief.
What about AXP? Sure, Cramer spoke of it, but I think he’s got a real idea in that credit card debt will be next to go. How about shorting AXP on the relief rally?
Don’t be rude?
Are you fucking kidding me?
What do you think this is Sesame Place of some shit?
I spit fire at you morons.
Back to work.
I’m trying to think of stocks that will do well with this credit crunch on the long side.
I’m guessing their are some retail names that could be okay in the long run, since the primary credit bubble crisis is in derivatives… but I think fast food will always be something the there is a demand for. I’ll have to look into Wendy’s (WEN) and why it’s so low.
COST might bounce.
Grocery I would think still might be a good play, people gotta eat. KR and SVU
Maybe I’ll do a scan later for low debt/equity stocks
Rate cuts do nothing. America will lead the world into depression.
On a brighter note, military service will be compulsory soon, effectively eliminating unemployment.
Those stocks WILL NOT do well in credit crisis mode.
We are in a convoy lower.
Cut j a break.
He suffers from Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy and koolaid poisoning.
He’s also a monkey fukcing a smoking cigar…or something like that.
What a shocker, Dick “FuckFace” Fuld is blaming the short sellers. You did it Fly … you and your clan. LOL!
Fuld getting poleaxed
Why are Franklin Raines and Co. not in front of Phantom of the Opera Waxman?
Are they getting their own special day, or are we going to only prosecute the fuckers we didn’t spend $700 bn bailing out?
_____
Fly – what are your thoughts on the quality of the little bounce?
Hey, the Russian stock market is down 20%. Couldn’t happen to a nicer buck of pricks.
So the rag heads are so used to getting wealthy on the rest of us by restricting production and all those tricks, they now have to increase sales to keep things going, which means the fuckers will be flooding the market with oil. yep, it’s 50 bucks here we come. The fuckers.
All you peak oilers out there. Cop that right in the nuts, you fruitcake greenie mother fuckers.
Dick is so sedated he’s simultaneously getting a colonoscopy while he testifies.
Didn’t Waxman already have CEOs are Evil and Overpaid Follies Part III starring the Tan Man, Stan O’Neal and Charles Prince?
It’s okay everyone… Cramer just told everyone to get out of stocks.
The bottom is near.
-DT
CNBC.. Bold defender of the Rich/Dick CEO.
The bottom will be in when they cancel Cramer. This is not bullshit. It always happens that way. All the way back to Grandville.