Make the Hard Trade
In my opinion, LIBOR is up, due to banks extorting Congress for the cheese. This is something they are able to control. So, it makes sense to give an appearance of doom, in order to get that cheddar, if you know what I mean.
I remember back in late 2002, Buffett made a big investment in Level 3 Communications, Inc. (LVLT: 1.68 +5.00%) convertible bonds. The deal, similar to today’s Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS: 176.64 +0.26%) deal, nearly marked the bottom in the 2002 market maelstrom.
It’s not the money that’s important to Goldman, but symbolism.
The reason why I am bullish, at least in the near term, is because sentiment is about to change. If this 700 billion dollar fuck you goes through, the market discussion will switch from “who’s next to die?” to “how much liquidity did Citigroup Inc. (C: 4.05 0.00%) just free up, courtesy of the tax payer?”
Frankly, I see no reason to keep downside hedges on, with the market at these lowly levels. With my money, I will continue to allocate capital towards banks and basic materials/resources.
Indirectly, the basic resource trade will hedge my bank longs, or not. It’s entirely possible that both banks and commodities can boot stomp some fucktarded bearshitting old guys into and down idle manholes.
Keep that in mind when betting against me.
Top picks: Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV: 3.75 +4.75%) , Citigroup Inc. (C: 4.05 0.00%) , (ROM: 53.80 +0.75%) , Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX: 81.23 -1.17%) , Walter Industries, Inc. (WLT: 88.72 -0.30%) and (UYG: 6.75 +2.27%)
why not go with QLD?
I’m still kind of hesitant to be bullish at the moment. The fact that bush has to address the nation about the bailout plan implies that the negotiations aren’t going very well.
Shit that sounds so depressing, fuck it yeah the market is going to shoot up skyhigh tomorrow.
Your “Internet laser beam” is as lame as this market.
However, watching the futures rise mildly midday here on the WH accepting limits on CEO compensation makes me feel that you’re dead on about this whole bailout thing.
How am I going to explain this to my father? Last week I moved him into gold and silver bullion and bought him a handgun.
-DT
Do you like KRE here Senor?
Fly wrote:
the market discussion will switch from “who’s next to die?” to “how much liquidity did Citigroup Inc. (C: 19.25 -3.70%) just free up, courtesy of the tax payer?”
And when does the discussion switch to “who the hell are they going to lend money to, and for what?”
The liquidity issue is bogus.
Soap Box Speech:
Now the new thing is CEO compensation. They suggests that if the fucktarded gov’t limits CEO pay, they, The CEOs will suddenly abandon the ship and go to “private equity”.
Let me fucking say something about this. CEOs are the most overpaid, fucking PR machines on the face of the earth. Example, most of us knew Dick Fuld was toast weeks ago, yet that fuckface had the audacity to deny prudent deals that may have saved his firm … and shareholders.
Who the fuck are we kidding here? These fucking idiots were levered up 30+ fucking times, and landed money like a pimp passing drugs to whores. And now we should be worried if they decide to leave? FUCK YOU. If I were writing this bill, I would want all these cockroaches to be replaced with the directors in a timely manner.
Even the French Italians know the score:
(From today’s WSJ “Euro Edition”)
U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was a great investment bank coverage officer and a solid CEO, but his newfound reflex for serial nationalizations of troubled financial institutions is another story. With opaque decision making and tight timelines, using the credit worthiness of the federal government and, worse yet, compromising both the previously pristine balance sheet and independence of the Fed to achieve “calm” is a mighty steep price for the U.S. to pay.
This momentary market “relief” is false security. Utilizing $400 billion of taxpayer money to calm markets has enormous treble effect on America’s financial credibility.
The notion that a mid-market lightweight like Bear Sterns should be backstopped for sloppy hubris is in itself reckless. The Lehman bankruptcy has been the only straightforward market correction to date, and it was indeed necessary. It is in harsh contrast to the government treatment of other wayward financial service houses. Having let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac run amok, allowing the populist “dream team” of Chuck Schumer, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and Nancy Pelosi to legitimize it now is further executive-branch failure.
There is only one outcome that is acceptable, and that is the systematic liquidation of both Fan and Fred. How Secretary Paulson rationally justifies this takeover while leaving the private subdebt outstanding has no reasoned explanation. While assuming control of AIG might be reluctantly acceptable, this too must be liquidated.
The right position for the Fed is not to assume responsibility for troubled private sector assets but to assert its influence and force combinations like last week’s merger of Merrill Lynch into Bank of America. If the government deems radical action as the sole course of responsible governance, it has a duty to articulate the how and the why.
Robert Agostinelli
Paris
Any thoughts on gold boyz, it has to run from here - soon.
Donny,
That’s fine. Prepare ye for your newly minted taxpayer shareholdings to be managed by the post office.
__
Jeffy,
I’ve got all my gold in Amero coins already.
“.9999″ pure.
__
” fucktarded bearshitting old guys ”
with all due respect
GO FUCK YOURSELF
Another WSJ Euro Letter, for the Fly, because I still love him, non-gayly:
There’s Nothing Wrong With Coal
(From today’s Wall Street Journal Europe)
Edgar Gärtner’s Sept. 11 Business Europe column, “Wind Fuels Gas,” was an enlightenment for me. E.On, the German utility that bought our Midlands Electricity, is one of the most ardent propagandists for building more wind power in the U.K. Now I understand why. They will make us even more dependent on imported natural gas.
Britain used to be energy independent by using our domestic coal and British-built nuclear reactors. Now it seems that our government will close most of the remaining coal-fired stations and replace them with useless feeble wind power. All because of global warming.
There must be something seriously wrong with our political system when our leaders close coal-fired plants with low operating costs. This is happening in Britain where normal people are hit with an avalanche of rising fuel bills and six million people are in need of help. All in a country where 20,000 people might die of cold weather this winter. What has become of our common sense?
Max Ayriss
Hinckley, England
Donny buys 2k more shares of UYG @ 19.20.
The Fly is right … it’s time to get bullish.
I wonder if they will put a cap on Fly’s compensation package also?
Hey, ain’t anyone gonna wait for me to drop?
The Fly doesn’t need his compensation limited, because he is paid by taking calculated risk. The Fly is a winner, unlike Dick Fuld, who’s an IDIOT.
CEOs are paid by saying the right things, and being in the right place at the right time, and knowing the right people.
got any thoughts on GE folks, been beat down solid and still down considerably.
Notice how PACW has been down lately because there are no shorts left to squeeze? Funny shit. I will be downgrading them if this short ban continues past Oct 2nd.
Fly,
What do you think of Morgan Stanley long?
Holy Guacamole batman I am having a deja vu after reading that.
To celebrate I just sold out my FSLR for some egregious attention deficit disorder gains. It will probably run to the moon to spite my fucktarded internet leeching trigger happy day traderness.
Off to engrish class!
JakeGint there is nothing non-gayly about you.
Jeffy,
Is that a proposition, big boy?
(flutter, flutter)
Go satiate a mosquito, but be gentle, basement boy.
__
It’s going to get ugly during the Bernanke and Paulson grilling. Congress is not going to be making any decisions today.
Well looks like its time to get smoked to the downside now.
$700 BN is a Band-Aid when you’re talking about a $600+ Trillion “Unwind”…….$7-10 Trillion Minimum!!
Asta la Vista Baby~!~!
The guy who said he wanted to “persecute” shorts will be on TV tonight pleading for the bailout. I don’t know Fly…sounds like he may be having trouble selling the package. Then again, perhaps the thieves and perverts running Congress will probably will cave in eventually.
All I know is I’m not betting against Paulson. So going long or staying in cash is the way I am playing this. Hank ‘fuckin’ Paulson is Cosa Nostra, Mara Salvatrucha, Triad, Yakuza and Vory v Zakone all rolled into one.
“In my opinion, LIBOR is up, due to banks extorting Congress for the cheese.”
Spot on - I was pondering about about that yesterday when I discussed strategy with my trading buddy. The market is led down softly to increase the pain. After all, if the market suddenly bounced there would be less incentive, n’est-ce pas?
Hedge fund manager in London says $700 bill into the banks and then the banks put it into treasuries and the yields plummet. Sounds plausible - (I’m just running this by “The Fly” for his opinion).
CAP,
You forgot Vito Corleone.
Thought y’all might like to use these to sneak up on old men:
http://www.uncrate.com/men/body/hair/fake-moustaches-beards/
Why C over BAC?
-I also like HANS and ABK at these levels
I just woke up from my afternoon siesta and see that the market hasn’t moved, except that the chips and biotech are still looking good.
What the hell….
FCX hitting an air pocket. Buckle up for safety please.
Instead of saddling-up with some Metal (Gold/Silver) due to the impending hyperinflation about to besiege the Globe,,,,,,,,,,,Fuck It,,,,,,,,Think like a “Tard” and Buy the Homies!! eh?
Live coverage of Bernake, Paulson, and Bush at the Congressional hearing on Bailout bill:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzCg32uJBXU&feature=related
Those clowns at CNBC keep talking about how the sticking point was the CEO compensation thing. What a bunch of maroons. They are completely missing the point.
I think I saw those Tremor Bros. guys in the Putnam County jail a number of years ago.
Big divergence between the large cap tech and the Russell. Usually not good for a daytrade long.
Looking at the lady to Barney’s left I see that he brought his illegal house servant to the hearings.
FCX is an asshole.
I’ll buy more in low 60’s.
Idiots are selling.
The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS, The TAXPAYERS.
What the FUCK is wrong with these people. Why are they trying to protect the taxpayer, when the tax payer gets fucked by all this no matter what they do.
Are they insane?
Watching this shit and having it move my stocks is driving me nuts.
McCain’s suspending his campaign and canceling Friday’s debate. That doesn’t feel like confidence to me. It looks like panic.
We better get something done now or we’re fucked.
It’s especially funny coming from a Congress that has wasted and spent more money on bullshit, than any Congress in the history of the U.S.
Assholes are getting religion now?
Please.
He cancelled the debate? Well, I guess it’s back to the bars in Oxford, Miss. for the frat boys.
My favorite movie is…”The Manchurian Candidate”
Could be very bad. Supposedly, the Republicans are waiting for their candidate to give this plan a thumbs up or down before they sign on. Sounds like he’s getting ready to offer an alternative, or at least call for congress to put off their vacation and extend hearings.
Well… He’s asking to cancel it… It hasn’t been canceled yet as far as I can tell.
Ya… This is a sign to me that we may not get shit done before the weekend. Could be really bad.
Fly, you reading tea leaves on this shit?
The Boyz will take the market down about 500 points between now and Fri. to show the Congress what’s what.
Just reading the release, it seems that he’s for “a” plan, but doesn’t think there is consensus. Of course, if he endorsed it, maybe there would be consensus.
Looks like an attempt to say he’s “putting the country first” and can take credit for pulling both parties together on the issue. Good politics, but kind of like playing chicken.
Agree that it doesn’t look like we get anything done this week.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_el_pr/mccain
Just reading the release, it seems that he’s for “a” plan, but doesn’t think there is consensus. Of course, if he endorsed it, maybe there would be consensus.
Looks like an attempt to say he’s “putting the country first” and can take credit for pulling both parties together on the issue. Good politics, but kind of like playing chicken.
Agree that it doesn’t look like we get anything done this week.
It doesn’t matter whether you’re a longer term bull or bear. There’s no good reason to take anything more than a short term trade until Monday.
Be prepared to take profits and reverse the trade.
I hate it when my charts have little drooping red dicks hanging off the end.
This thing is going to get mired down in partisan politics and meaningless rhetoric now that Obama and McCain are going to inject themselves directly into the proceedings. This is bad news.
It’s all irrelevant. Too Big. Too Late!!
Fly, Punt that WLT its got eyes on the $43-45 zone.
Get “pure” with some MWA. eh?
UPS is my “canary in a coal mine” on this sheeit.
GG is about to BTFO.
Get on, get off, stop tossing the poof,
yo ho, yo ho, yo ho!
Contractor… agreed.
fuck: little drooping red dicks “hanging off the end of your charts” ?
What the hell kind of software charting platform are you using?
Fly this hard trade is getting harder.
My fellow Americans, what we need to solve this crisis is Hope. And another thing we need is Change. Lots of it. Check your couch cushions, your pant pockets, your hallway drawers, and bring that shit to Washington.
I see that IBM is now on the no short list. WTF? They might as well just say no shorting on anything and get it over with.
McCain makes a dick move by jumping in front of Obama:
Who do we need to blow up and conquer to get this situation resolved?
ABX and GG seem to be doing the Texas two step up while the rest of the golds (except AEM) do zip.
We have to look at prior bear markets or steep downtrends in the markets when considering this crisis, according to Roelof van den Akker from ING Wholesale Banking. Van den Akker expects the S&P 500 index to decline by up to 40% over the coming months to about 800.
–Absolute Genius!
Colors:
Nancy Pelosi.
Get to it.
__
Bailout passes relief rally then back to reality ECONOMY SUX! Bailout will not be for free dilution,pay cuts. So many people buying for big rally if bailout passes,makes you wonder.
Pelosi can’t make it. She has to get her Botox injections.
Late again, but didn’t Buffet inject money into Salomon Brothers in 1987 months/weeks before the October freefall (for you less than 46 1/2 year-olds who obvioiusly cannot reember first hand)
Resume your selling battle stations!
MA tanking.
MA is a proxy for the market IMO.
MA tanks, the consumer goes into hiding, the depression begins.
No way am I a buyer in this tape. I’m 100% short right now. Top pick (courtsey of Señor Fly): VMC (cheers to the death of the US housing mkt — 2009 bottom MY ASS).
I also love PALM (theyre dead.
I’ve had my face ripped off a few times trading MA.
AIG death spiral! Down we go captain.
The only I think I recall about Saloman Bros. was a rogue bond trader who screwed up in the early ’90s. That was about the time C printed 5.
Major undertow in the market … no crash but the outflows/redemptions are obvious.
Just a steady leak.
UYG filled the gap nicely
Foreclosure forbearance? Okay nobody pay their mortgages on the count of three. 1,2,3.
Gold should soar! FXY up 900%, ok so maybe its a bad print but seriously, who is up for a mandatory 3:30 redemption swing each day. Now that could yield some profits.
Warren Buffett - “If congress doesn’t help us, heaven help us.”
I’m watching CSPAN. Lamar Alexander = Idiot.
I thought today’s testimony was a lot more detailed and enlightening.
Tuesday the proles want heads on sticks.
Wednesday the peasants calm down a bit.
Thursday someone influential will carry Paulnacke’s water.
And Friday congress backs up some kind of plan before the market closes.
Banks will get relief before the end of the week and there will be a financial pop, imo. I’m with Broker A on this one, long 2000 C at $18 and change waiting for a nice pop. Everything else I own is short (including my wife) and those dogs (who is not a dog) will come in from the hunt as well over the next 4 weeks.
SNV. Yet another criminal print. Breaking higher at 3:58 trading 11:52. Prints $10.85 on 70k shares, down 8% from highs. Someone should go to jail for this shit.
OMG they are all idiots. Now I remember why I don’t watch this channel ….. it is so fucking scary.
I’m still waiting to see if the SEC invesigates those criminal GS trades at the end of the day yesterday. It is rigged.
Happend today again from 130 to 133 in 1 minuet.