Infrastructure Bust Confirmed
“The Fly” warned you, countless times, regarding the pending bust in global growth aka “infrastructure plays.” Today, Terex Corporation (TEX: 22.92 0.00%) confirmed my thesis. Next up: Vulcan Materials Company (VMC: 48.39 0.00%) .
No need to toot my own horn, since I am in a perpetual state of victory. However, I must admit, my call on the end of global growth, coupled with big trouble within U.S. municipalities, was a Godly one.
Much to my chagrin, I find myself here long Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX: 80.27 0.00%) and a variety of oil stocks. I know how my subconscious works— and it’s those damn hurricanes that motivated me to get long.
In hindsight, it was a mistake. But, I am sure I can weasel a way out, via large average downs. Don’t try this at home.
To a large extent, I have been cushioned because of the rise in Western Refining, Inc. (WNR: 5.01 0.00%) . As you know, I have a nice sized position there.
Going forward, I can’t help but think the banks are in a free fire zone, especially since Cramer said to go buy ‘em all, yesterday.
Make no mistake, the bust up in commodities is having a trickle effect. You can’t say I didn’t warn you.
Bottom line: short Cathay General Bancorp (CATY: 11.16 0.00%) , short PacWest Bancorp (PACW: 22.36 0.00%) , short Morgan Stanley (MS: 30.08 0.00%) , short Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS: 177.45 0.00%) , short East West Bancorp, Inc. (EWBC: 18.04 0.00%) , short TCF Financial Corporation (TCB: 15.84 0.00%) , short (FED: 4.84 0.00%) and short Legg Mason, Inc. (LM: 29.74 0.00%) is the way to go. And, don’t forget to bet against the retards at Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (JEC: 43.85 0.00%) , Foster Wheeler Ltd. (FWLT: 26.82 0.00%) , Fluor Corporation (NEW) (FLR: 45.94 0.00%) , ABB Ltd (ADR) (ABB: 21.59 0.00%) and URS Corporation (URS: 48.89 0.00%) .
Or, you can just buy (SKF: 19.60 0.00%) and go for a swim in the pool.
hehehehee, Im going swimming today, I think, i be going swimming all week with “SKF” heheheheheheheehhe Love “SKF” Thanks FLY
I see people in my neighborhood hobbling down the street with two arms and 1 legs blown off screaming some incoherent mumbo jumbo about buying the dips.
Crazy chit mang.
I am so long AGU oct calls that I could puke
Clne looks like it is getting ready for a blow off top. If you have profit a stop loss would be healthy move.
I bought more SKF, and will be taking a nap after my swim in the pool.
This market is some crazy shite.
VIX up big but I still don’t know if it is a a symptom or cause. I am thinking about more SKF here because this is a BIG hammer blow to financials WHACK! BAM! I expected VIX to go lower before a takeoff, but maybe this is it?
The Fly for President!
I have to try to average down, I dug myself a huge hole with my stupid DIG buy! I’m waiting for the high 60s with you on that one. If Ike works out for me like Gustav, my husband may never forgive me.
I sold my SMN for an egregious profit. I did so well with this position, I’m taking the little lady out tonight.
Have a nice day boys!
Winning ticket since Jan- Buying skf on weakness pairing at upper range and repeat -also holding longer dated leap calls on uyg(forced too with all the scamming) for an insurance policy. Phuck everything else. Never traded so light in the past twenty years. This market has destroyed every sector at some point in 08 sending lots of muula to money heaven.
Did Dennis ‘Asshat of the Year’ Kneale actually just say - “If you haven’t sold today, you haven’t lost a thing!”
That man is dangerous for your financial health. He should be hung from the highest limb by the SEC.
Donny, don’t you mean you’re taking the little boy out tonight? Can you at least change your name to something that doesn’t look so much like Danny.
Sorry. I’m so sorry. The Zombie is in a bad mood.
this is something, ain’t it. I’m so short this market I can’t see straight. Will probably come off margin at days and reload the shorts on any bounce. I did tell you all yesterday, but I was greeted with boo’s, hisses and curses when I should have been treated with a Hero’s Welcome. My P&L is amazing. It’s a creature of beauty who I love to show off. Be jealous. It’s OK. It’s only natural to admire great talent.
im Cramer Blog
Stay Away for Now
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/4/2008 1:52 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10435833.html
We need reasons to buy other than “stocks are down,” and we are curiously out of reasons for the most hard-hit names, because we now worry that we could be buying Terex (TEX) or Ciena (CIEN) .
And of course we have no idea when today’s liquidation is going to be over. I don’t know which hedge funds have what to sell. I don’t know why Anadarko’s (APC) down huge and Apache’s (APC) not down; I don’t know what’s wrong with Air Products (APD) and Praxair (PX) . Numbers too high? I don’t know.
It does feel as if everything is just too hard, too hard to buy.
I look at today’s tape and see so much fear and so much negativity and so much chaos that I have to believe there is something to find here.
But when I find it, I get whacked immediately and the stock is lower almost instantly.
We have not reached any sort of capitulation by the sellers.
Just not there yet.
Matt: remember writing this not so long ago ? I think you nailed the top in that one perfectly
Pity you were long and not short.
Matt Says:
TIVO takes 9!
it’s still lookin sweet!
September 4th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Where you been ShortBus I already boot stomped myself on that trade.
wrote the 65/60 bull put spread for Sep. whatever
UNG reversal 2 days in a row, I’m liking this.
hahaha now you have pimco begging the treasury to do something? awesome.
JEC, FLR…..retards….that right there is some funny stuff…. The Fly hit that nail square on the head.
Hey, Fly:
Dunno what you think about inside tips, but I just interviewed with one of the integrated oil companies (a top 5) yesterday, spent two hours with their head of pricing and allocation (I’m being considered for a position in that dept). They are planning on just leaving the refineries in shutdown mode until all of these hurricanes are gone (so, call it atleast another week of shutdown, he said more like ten days minimum). Could be a nasty price spike just based on shortages.
cubs: nat gas catching a little bit of a bid? interesting.
i personally think the pickens/mcclendon proposal will get done, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
IBC Customer Service Announcement:
Attention shoppers … money is now going into MDR …. MDR is now green …. for how long is anyone’s bet …. buy at your own risk, I have.
EEV… what a great stock!
Closed all hedges…now just long calls and bull put spreads.
easy hold overnight on IEO OIH
Captain, it appears VMC bounced off it’s support line at $73.25, but sensors indicate it doesn’t have much “dilithium in the tank,” if you know what I mean.
Shall I hail Mr. Scott to to remedy the photon torpedoes?
Or the Glen Fiddich, for that matter?
___
GIO —
The greatest ETF never pumped.
But it was in last month’s “KoPG” rec’s, if you recall…
Who was that fucker, anyways? (wink).
__
You Romulans know what happens next, don’t you?
Chairman Bernake, of the Federation, will come down with his Phasering of Interest Rates again.
__
Let me tell you of an ancient culture of long gone Earth…
The Japanese of 1988 were a simple folk, much consumed with honor and real estate appreciation…
__________
EEV to 150.
Group hug for the Fly.
SKF to the moon, alice!
FLY any thoughts on AVAV?
Speaking of Potash holes, whatever happened to that “POT to $300 guy?”
Last I heard he was in a Venusian bar telling his troubles to “JJ Palladium” of the Galaxy “Odd.”
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COF is a bitch of a whore that just wont motherfucking die.
If the DOW closes up 200 points tomorrow, I will resign my position. I am in 4 of these double bear ETFs.
Any ETF for infrastructure stocks?
For Christ sakes - someone has to post it…
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
Soon it will be “Poof, your bullshit planet is gone”.
Caffeinated, I’d take that….just leave the refineries standing.
Finally- saved by the bell. Wow. I just shat a huge bloody hemmorhage today. Fuck. Shit. Goddamn.
FUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!
I just had to get that out.
ditto the last two comments.
Keep an eye out for 1234 on the S&P and 11125 on the Dow. We break those levels and its back to the July lows.
BTW where is the Fly and his market closing sermon ?
I have it from good sources that Fly was crushed by a pile of gold coins. He is digging his way out, but he is being slowed by his desire to count each and every gold coin.
FLY - Could you direct me to some reading material related to your “big trouble within U.S. municipalities” statement. Any alternative info would be helpful.
A lot of wholesalers are peddling junk muni funds in my office and a lot of retail clients are highly interested, although we don’t want to pull the trigger just yet and end up with egg on our face. All the in-house research, naturally, tells us spreads are historically huge and it’s time to buy…….this coming from the same asshats who say there’re opportunities in financials based on “valuation”…shiiiiiiiiiiiiit
By the way, I’ve got a lot of other brokers in the office here reading IBC daily now and in the midst of this madness, you keep us all laughing and the “Fly Disease” is spreading like wildfire…..so keep it up
TX Slave:
Check the first sentence of this post. There are 9 previous posts, regarding infrastructure.
Here is one little reference
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2008/03/26/elevator-down-2/