Oil coming down is not necessarily a great thing, considering it means growth is slowing. And, the decline in commodities will do little for Asian inflation. They have wage inflation issues.
Select strength in tech stocks, like salesforce.com, inc. [[CRM]] and Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , is not a tell for general market behavior. They are isolated plays, just like Dell Inc. [[DELL]] was back in 1997-1998, during the Asian contagion/LTCM crsis.
On the other hand, just because the banks are weak today, does not mean they cannot sprint higher tomorrow. Expand your time horizon to more than 1 month and you will look at things differently.
Most energy stocks are absurdly undervalued, due to the overly pessimistic outlook for crude. Everyone should own at least one oil stock, representing anywhere between 5-12% of your portfolio. We are now at good risk/reward levels.
Personally, I like National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] and ConocoPhillips [[COP]] .
Markets don’t bottom or top; they capitulate. In my estimation, we have yet to capitulate.
In closing, beware of weak volume advances or declines. In my opinion, right now, you should be prepping the battlefield for a September war.
Position yourself accordingly.
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The War is in October an The Cubs will be represent’n the NL!
Global growth slowing + Asian inflation=bad times ahead.
China’s food saftey chief has accidental death. He fell from a building after a financial problem investigation. Take it for what it is !!!
The Fly is God
My latest pair trade is short Jim Rogers and Long Brazilian Bikinis.
This article is worth reading: http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/08/12/a-further-retreat-from-oil-investments/. Discusses risks of buying oil on the dip right now.
wait a minute- I know how this ends. Selloff in energy at the end of the day, HK shits a peach pit, poof, my bullshit profits vanish.
Buy the oil stocks and do what? Hold? How long? Fttt! I’ll buy the oil corpses after they drop 50%, and not before. As for “defense” names, i.e. the war machine, never.
I bought some QID for Woodshedder 😛
BPOE thats not true, after investigation it was found he got drunk, got himself over to the 10 meter board and did a synchronized dive but forgot to look the pool was empty for cleaning.
FLY, etc., you think XLE would be a good play here?
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3615.shtml
“What is significant about the Georgian conflict is that for, arguably, the first time since the so-called end of the Cold War, it is not the Anglo-American empire unilaterally bombing, invading or occupying a politically weak nation with a primitive military, such as Afghanistan or Iraq. Russian military might is being unleashed directly on a US surrogate.
Russia is daring the Anglo-American empire to do something about it.
It is currently unclear, in the face of complexities (clouded by the violence, and the incendiary and escalating rhetoric from all sides) what scenario will unfold. What is clear is that it is beyond a nightmare scenario already.”
My prediction: Oil will retake its former highs by Fall or Winter at the latest. Long defense stocks will work too. Short the overall market.
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3615.shtml
Thanks Cubs! I’m heavy long it… It keeps brushing my stops…But so far, I’m still in it.
Fly, unlike your asshole haters, I appreciate your brilliance. Excellent post and really helped me ground myself for tomorrows positions.
Norcal,
Thanks for the conspiracy theory article.
9/11 a “false flag” event, huh?
Let me say this clearly, having lost two friends on 911:
You’re an asshole. Get out of Mom’s basement before your productive years are over.
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9/11 was an inside job. Those closest to it can’t accept that fact.
Inside the building, oh most Private Uterus?
Tell me, were the appropriate Jewish parties given sufficient warning in your universe too?
_
Tell me, were the appropriate Jewish parties given sufficient warning in your universe too?
I don’t know about that, but they did make out like bandits on the insurance.
and the steel from the buildings, and the war, and the…
Anybody who thinks nineteen liquor-drinking and rather stupid young Moslems, directed by a gimpy Arab hiding incommunicado in a cave in Afghanistan could pull off a stunt as complex
as 911 has shit for brains.
How the hell could these 19 clowns circumvent
our FBI, CIA, INS, Departnent of Defense, airport security, simultaneously commandeering
FOUR airliners in three airports within a 12 minute period, THEN crash them perfectly into three buildings in two cities, with nary a hitch, in a fashion such that all evidence was destroyed?
Wake up people. The Bush Regime had means, motive, and opportunity to pull off 911.
The boozing Muslims and gimpy Arab DID NOT.
The bush crime family is dangerous.
Be cautioned, Fine Wine, it appears you have Morons circling Uranus.
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