In no way did the fucktarded indices represent today’s carnage. Regional banks were eliminated from reasonable discussion today, as the ongoing financial crisis burns through equity—faster than dirty whores through the S. Bronx.
From [[ZION]] to [[FED]] to [[WM]], we’re in trouble here.
Plus, on top of that, we have a fucking inflation problem, with oil ‘ova here’ at outrageous levels. I hope many of you can really learn to appreciate the magnitude of this crisis and accept it for what it is: A historical fuckup, probably never to be repeated again.
Everything is lining up perfectly for the bears. From banks to barrels, there is so much stress on the system, it is likely to break down and crumble.
As you know, those are very bold words for some anonymous internet God. Keep in mind, at all times, you are some numbskull with a ruler and graph paper, while I travel in diamond rimmed time machines and rub elbows with the stock Gods.
Going forward, I believe it is possible to see a bounce. On that bounce, I will probably let go some of my oil holdings, which include: [[FTK]], [[RIG]], [[ARD]], [[PCZ]], [[NOV]], [[HP]] and [[OII]].
Top picks: short [[PACW]], short [[WABC]], short [[VLY]], long RIG
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Fly are 2.5″ Rib-Eyes still on the menu when banking coin via the short side?
What a fucked up mess.
nowhere to hide
With my $27 gain today on my 100 shares of HRB short, I will buy a train ticket to Mr. Mtg’s house and give him a copy of his landlord’s NOD plus a copy of the latest high times magazine.
🙂
DGP Gold is hopping BOING!
more fm minyanville – The credit market turns unruly!
I’ve stated many times that while the credit market was correcting, it was doing so in an orderly manner. This may have changed.
I now count 170 BBB+ or higher bank and finance preferred issues trading north of 8.5%. Most preferred offerings that I have looked at are down 10% today. A CNB 8 7/8 deal done in March is trading at 13. The Merrill (MER) 8 5/8 that was 11%, then 12% is now 12.5%.
To be frank, they trade like the dividends will not get paid for a while, and given that they’re non-cumulative, that could mean serious pain for many retail and institutional investors alike.
I also saw some hybrids from SunTrust Banks (STI) and National City (NCC) trading with markets that were $40 bid/$60 ask, on a $100 par.
So it’s beginning to get unruly and this is where Acceleration Station begins.
Ryan Krueger
03:10:43 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
To Drill or Not to Drill
So I’m pinging with a true energy ace just now about the offshore drilling red tape, which takes the ‘crude dream’ I had about how this period eventually gets punctuated a little out of order. And as I’m trying to come to grips with that, he sends across five little words that better describe the underlying secular story, while moths around it chase any flicker of light suggesting it’s broken…
“Good luck finding the rigs.”
My firm is still overweight Energy.
P.S. If crude does not want to back down at any number of bearish signposts, it tells you plenty. On a energy per unit basis of comparison it also tells you that Natural Gas is going to get awfully appealing to me this month as it backs down seasonally for a long overdue pullback.
I had a good day w/SKF and all, but this is still kind of scary: http://www.ocregister.com/slideshow/bank-people-time-2093028-federal-indymac?pos=3
Just the people I thought would be in line, too. Will be the same line for gov’t cheese next year.
Howard Simons
7/14/08 3:03 PM EDT
Marc, go to Spain or Portugal and tell me that what was once a global dominant power cannot lapse into desuetude. Or London, for that matter: Prior to their recent revival, they too demonstrated how greatness can be squandered.
If the U.S. persists in remaining the world’s largest debtor and if it persists in maintaining the world’s largest unfunded liabilities (Social Security and Medicare) and if it insists in extending its official balance sheet to every goofball investment bank and mortgage lender who didn’t know what it was doing, that greatness will be squandered here, too.
Wasn’t Japan on top of the world twenty years ago? They screwed it up royally, too.
The unthinkable happens, Marc, because people never think it will. There are more great civilizations in ruins than there are great civilizations standing.
Debtor,
No, Japan was not “on top of the world” 20 years ago. They were “back to 1936” as far as economic clout, after having been hammered to near Stone-Ageist proportions in the war, and experienced a very orderly, hard working recovery. That recovery — which was largely state guided for a long time, sowed the seeds for it’s own destruction (as did the demise of GB 1850-1950).
But your point is taken.
__
Top picks:
… short (PACW: 13.11 -9.46%),
Yeaaaaahhhhh!!
… short (WABC: 42.42 -5.40%),
Yeeeeeeeaaaaahhhhh!!
… short (VLY: 14.44 -7.61%),
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaahhhhh!!
… long RIG.
Booooooooooooooooooooohhhhhh!!!!
_
Minute Maid.. The rigs are in WEst AFrica, Brazil and the Persian Gulf. You can ask EOG for some shallow water ones though.
I’m riding with the
Ring Leader Man (The Fly)
Don’t put your rebate in the bank. Buy a safe and gun when they go on sale. Get a Cow Boy outfit this is the Wild Wild West. Shot first ask questions later!!!!
On the theme of the lines at IndyMac, I’m about to go to Wachovia to take my money out of an account there. It’s hard to keep money in a bank with a stock chart resembling a meteor knifing to earth at an accelerating pace. On the other hand, it’s a bizarre feeling in America to be afraid for your cash based on the health of the bank. I guess there will be more of this . . .
Q4, minion, there can be only One Ring Leader.
And I was short today (can you tell?)
_
where ya takin that cash? i’m thinking JPM could stand to receive or already has received substantial deposits from the run on these pitiful fuckers. PCBC to zero in a hurry.
holding that bastard of yours – UYG ?
Wachovia bought A.G. Edwards last May, fwiw. Hard to believe the brokerage won’t also have big problems. The Edwards pitch is aimed at people my parents’ age.
It could get ugly-er.
I got my head cut off today and lost 10K. What the fuck!!!
Today was the frst day that I had no shorts, covered them all on Friday. I went long on a few names and it was like I got fucked in the ass with no lube.
fuck, cunt, muther fucker……..fuck.
Ok. I’m keeping it together…keeping it together.
I’m going to tell you gentlemen, quietly and calmly, one last time and then I’m gonna get all nasty and shit.
“Stop messing with the banks.”…………………
YOU FUCKING SELL ONE MORE SHARE OF BANK STOCK….AND WE’LL FUCKING KILL YOU !!…. I MEAN IT!!
Thank you for your kind attention to this egregious matter.
Hank
Headless:
Is that you, Woody?
__
i know i sound like a broken-record internet douche, but i think we’re going to wake up one day and watch the SKF open at 300 before the summer is over.
maybe we get to the “scary part of the movie” and wash the last of the week hands out of this shit for the short term. if we were to gap down for some reason and the vix raced to the 30’s i would have to buy an oversized position in UYG.
this clip always makes me laugh by the way
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gR7HDERBCQE&feature=related
No need to waste time picking individual banks – XLF down over 5% and SKFie way up ro a record. “The Fly” eats Kobe beef at over $100/pound just because only rich people can afford it – he actually prefers cheaper ribeye.
Jake,
Re: “Another heart-warming tale…”
Just proves people will gnaw their own legs off to get out of Pasadena.
Even if it means going to jail.
I think the pic of the old folks lined up outside the IndyMac branch is going to be repeated around the country tomorrow, in greater numbers, if it makes the evening news tonight.
The people burned in the LA Times story you linked to? No worries. Congresswoman Maxine Waters is on the case.
Socialize the banks and oil companies!
Hello, I just found your company I Bank Coin and am looking for a bank to replace my Indymac checking account. Will you please give me I Bank’s current passport checking rate and if the interest will be compounded daily? Also who could go over my insurance needs with me, would Mr. Fly be able to help me with that? Thank you, Mrs. Edna Robertson
And Popeye’s Fried Chicken!
The BIX chart is just unreal.
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/7431/bixro2.jpg
Can I get a bounce ffs.
And the LA Clippers!
The people burned in the LA Times story you linked to? No worries. Congresswoman Maxine Waters is on the case.
Only ‘a cause the perp was her sister.
“I will tell you what THIS liberal is gonna do! THIS liberal is gonna nationalize ALL Ponzi schemes!
(What’s that? Social Security is ALREADY nationalized?… Never mind!)”
_
Cubs, I cherish you man.
Thanks for everything.
Jake.
_
Anton —
Funny, my little bro just married a hottie from Pasadena and she was pretty quick to get da flo outta there after college, too.
But I thought the town was remarkably pleasant, given all the obnoxious stereotypical things I’d heard about it all my life (the most famous being “the little old lady,” of course).
One thing I DID do, is take down the names of every bank I passed in town (IndyMac is based there, as you know, and the place is crawling with banks).
I’m now short almost every single one of them.
Jake,
Kidding about Pasadena. Actually a pretty good-looking ‘burb/town. Especially at night.
That murdering dwarf/wig model Phil Spector had a good line about it, tho:
“If I owned hell and Pasadena I’d lease out Pasadena and live in hell.”
Half of his wish is going to come true fairly soon.
Holy fuck the world is going to end….CBS cans Bill Packer!!!
Thank god people are still thinking “the market may rally here”
When everyone gets that we’re good and fucked — then the shitstorm begins.
Short: Everything
Long: My dick
Anyone have that list of the 100-150 banks slated to fail?
This is a once in a lifetime opportunity just as Dick Bove said.
Death has come to new mortgage rates. Death is all around actually. What is your death to equity ratio? By the way EWBC will become EWBC Federal soon.
Bill Ackman saves America !!!!!!