iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,428 Blog Posts

Position Update: CHL

The name (China Mobile) is being viewed upon as a black-footed albatross in the investment community. It is widely believed that the new telecom shakeup in China will hurt [[CHL]]. With a market cap close to 300 billion, there is significant downside to share price of CHL.

My chart guy is busy drawing squiggly lines on graph paper. He told me: “it’s going down the shit box, from here.”

This fits my short position thesis; so I though it made sense to pass it along to you.

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13 comments

  1. Q4

    Thanks Fly. Got in yesterday. Hat tip to your chart guy.

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  2. calvino

    Memo to the PPT, This assymetrical buying of the q’s and the diamonds must be coordinated better. Anyappearance of disruptive behaviour will not be well tolerated by the public.

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  3. Asshats United Against Dip Buying
    Asshats United Against Dip Buying

    If I werent against dip buying, I’d buy DRYS here. But I wont.

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  4. nik

    fly please explain: why not short the FXI?
    The performance is as bad as CHL and you are more diversified.

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  5. Working Man

    Fly

    Thanks again for the heads up here. Who knows, the Working Man may be able to afford a new hammer.

    I’m guessing the heat in NYC has kept that gay giraffe in the ice cream truck — wishing him the best, tough way to make a living. Not to mention the obvious disadvantages of being a giraffe, and gay, and probably developing some sort of glue sniffing addiction — typical of that type. Still can’t shake how funny that image is.

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  6. The Fly

    DRYS does look interesting.

    Nik:

    FXP is my largest holding.

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  7. Born2Code

    if it breaks below $65 (possibly this week) on volume then look out below… we could see $40 in a heartbeat.

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  8. TraderCaddy

    CNBC-Ask those pro ethanol people if they are willing to lift the import tariff on sugar based ethanol from Brazil so that costs are lowered. That’s what I thought.

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  9. GW

    DRYS…maybe $78-80
    How about DIA 100 -105 LOL

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  10. calvino

    The jap is now flattening out. Perhaps a couple of manufacturers closed that we do not know about, so the Imperial War College is happy for now. The upward pressue on the tape should now let off, although I have not decided whether to hold positions or not. The MOS short has been very very bad. I will wait to se the end of the day to close position. Ditto crm.

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  11. norcal

    You have revealed only 2K shares short CHL. Are you increasing your position? Seems like a small position for you.

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  12. The Fly

    I do not post all of my trades.

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  13. Jakegint

    Norcal — pay attention, he’s also short it via FXP.

    Which brings the query — why double up?

    Which brings this anecdote:

    One time while I was working for the ibanking division of a large retail firm that shall remain nameless I received an inquiry from one of the firm’s largest retail brokers.

    This was during the dot-bomb era (pre-“bomb”), and this guy had a whale client — a professional hockey player to be more descriptive — who owned a shitload, and I mean a ton, of this one highly volatile radioactive dot bomb that had gone up 1,000% in three weeks or something nutty like that. This broker tells me that his client called him to see how he could get MORE shares of a SPIN-OFF that this dot-bomb was throwing off itself in a dividend/IPO arrangement.

    I say to the broker, “But he’s already GOT a shit-load of the spin-off, because they’re printing one for one on the shares of the parent company.”

    He responds, “No, no, he wants MORE, he thinks the spin-off is gonna be worth triple the original.”

    I admonished the broker (I could, because we weren’t underwriting the deal, so I couldn’t get him the shares anyway, heh) “What the fuck, man? Do you think you might have a little bit of fidciary duty to your client, here? I mean, he’s already got $9 mm of the parent for crap’s sake??”

    The broker didn’t miss a beat, “Oh shit, he’ll make that in next year’s contract, this is like a game to him.”

    No joke, the player was a biggee, but geez, how long do hockey players’ careers last? In any case, I’m not sure if the player ever got the extra shares he wanted, but I do now the stock he owned went to absolute zero, and the spin-off blew up too. I sure hope he got a new broker. Or at least a CD down at the local savings & loan.

    Moral of the story: A monster broker’s large brook is not always the sign of a good asset manager. Eschew assets (to some degree) for process everytime.

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