I do not blog about the readings of my “calculator brain,” without caveat. While here, if you cannot control your infantile behaviour [sic], I will have to ask you to leave and dive into a cup of water.
Back to the market:
The financials were bloodied today, led by the “fortune cookie morons” at [[LEH]]. However, what really spooked investors was the sharp slide in [[JPM]].
If you are short the “Reverse Four Horsemen,” [[FHN]], [[FED]], [[CORS]] and [[DSL]], now may be a good time to take profits. As you know, I exist to talk shit and bank coin. My goal, as always, is to cut out the noise and focus on what is going to make me money.
I know a guy who wastes all of his time with charts, reading through regulatory filings, and consistently loses money, with his ridiculous picks—with reckless abandon.
On the other hand, there are guys like Ragin, who just look at a tape and can spit out winners, with “God-like” proficiency. As in sports, sometimes it doesn’t matter how much work you put in. If you don’t have it; you cannot bat cleanup.
This applies to many of you, “mountain fucking smores eaters.” Don’t try to be “The Fly.” You will only disappoint yourself and bankrupt your family.
All day, [[SRS]] and [[RIG]] charged higher. I really like that pair trade, long both. One would think, with all of the fire and brimstone being thrown at the housing market, commercial RE will, eventually, be affected. My bet, as always, is that SRS will print $120+, before August 1st.
On the short side, I still like FED here. However, if you’re uncomfortable holding it, cover immediately. Just know, the easy money on the downside has been made. Now, that doesn’t mean stocks will rip higher.
Quite the contrary.
Equity valuations are still stretched, factoring in the amount of writedowns and writeoffs that will have to be taken, within financial sector. In addition, the incredible amount of input costs, thanks to inflation, will hit home, eventually—poleaxing the industrials hard. Mark my words.
In the meantime, there is always a chance for a quick short squeeze, before the next leg down.
This is how “The Fly” is positioned:
Heavy positions in SRS, FXP and short CHL.
Minor trading positions in short FED and a variety of other egregiously overvalued banks/brokerages, like [[SUSQ]] and [[COWN]].
Long energy related names.
Big enough cash position to protect myself from a short squeeze or gap lower.
All in all, “The Fly” is pressing the envelope, now up more than 30%, year to date.
Top pick: Short CHL
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I have a new favorite front page picture.
I am with you on RIG, hold MDR as well.
For those shorting oil?
You Think You Know
Fly, you’ve obviously been in the game for some time. Do you have any advice for someone who started their trading career with heavy losses? i think the dow will fall to the 10k range by the end of the year but could easily see stupidity take the mkt higher in the near term. since i started with such a big loss, it’s hard to sit on something when it goes against me in the near-term.
Fuck this week looks like it’s a continuation of fucktarded behavior, I can’t tell what’s going on, everything’s just red. AMZN looks like it’s in for a massive beating and I don’t see how IYR/XHB can possibly ressurect itself at this point.
Normal correlations have completely broken down as of this Thursday. The only correlation is that all equities move together (WTF). Something’s going on.
Fly there is a 25% chance you have herpes.
Speaking of percentages is anyone else alarmed by the 2’s over 10’s spread? Christ.
Fly,
Did you really ban Fuctardi from your blog?
You know, it only makes him whinier.
____________
Query on the front page pic — is there some significance to the two non-iBC’ers in the middle, or are they just denizens of that game?
________
Marketimer- I know you asked for Fly’s advice so I hope you don’t mind my throwing in a word. Not sure about handling the losses except don’t get reckless in trying to get it back as quickly as possible. Have a game plan and an edge that works for you.
When you say the Dow will fall into the 10K by the end of the year that would be guessing. Don’t guess. The market will tell you day by day and week by week what to do.Listen to it and not what you think it should be doing.
TC…you should also add…don’t be offended when the market tells you to “go fuck yourself”. (I hate it when it does that.)
An old buddy of mine from high school sent me this bit of Youtube nostalgia today. It’s a nice “New Wave” summer song, and, while it probably came out when Fly was still getting pushed down stairs by old men (leading to later pathologies), it could almost have been written by him (at least the chorus), less a speedo-wearing giraffe here or there:
The Smiths: There Is A Light That Never Goes Out:
Fly,
No joking here…why are you short CHL if your heavily exposed to FXP? You mentioned a while back about diversification, but your heavy in FXP and CHL? Isnt the biggest component of FXP, CHL?
Maria Bartiromo is soo fucking tanned; on assignment…my ass
Jake,
lmao
Cramer goes bearish on CHL saying that he is not giving thumbs up to communist stocks and that the government is screwing with this company.
BigMike: I agree with you, I was looking at shorting CHL but I am heavily long FXP and feel it would not be wise in my case. Maybe fly sees something I don’t with long FXP short CHL. I did notice CHL usually has more of a downside move than FXP is up.
Oh Fly, by the way, I showed one of my colleagues your site and he thinks it is hilarious. However, I hate you now because you posted some song by Frankie Ruiz and he plays it at the desk all day for shits and grins. Hilarious.
Bilderberg entertains some friends —
not at that Last-Year-At-Marienbad estate of his, but at some motel out by the airport:
http://www.slate.com/id/2193220
I wake up every day, look in the mirror and say “go fuck yourself”. Gets it out of the way, and the rest of the day only gets better.