OMG, You guys are dicks. You, you must buy a little [[LEH]] and [[WB]] in the morning, else we’ll poison your tap water and make the icebergs melt.
Hank Paulson, U.S. Banking Crisis Team, Goldman Sachs
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I will do my part and cover 100 egregious shares of each, provided they price in bankruptcy or a $2 bailout, whichever comes first.
Please tell me you disposed of that toxic WB (Th-th-th-th-that’s ALL folks!).
You are much better off in something conservative like QTWW, or “rock ribbed” TMR.
Why is gAsia screaming higher today?
here what dady told me to do….
Harvey Korman in “Blazing Saddles” on FunnyOrDie.com
The market is now cooperating, let us rejoice and be glad in it.
We adore you o’ Fly and we praise you. But maybe the Cajun has the 1st seat?
at the risk of sounding gay, tonight is one of those nights tht makes me proud being an American. when i came to this country 46 yrs ago in miami,blacks still had their own bathrooms water fountains and had to sit in the back of the bus, and tonight one will run for the presendacy of the U.S.A. what a country. the only country in the world that would take an immigrant like me and gave the chance to accomplish anything i wanted to accomplish God bless the U.S.A
yep, sounds gay to me.
kidding.
Chivas, I agree with you 100%. It is funny how the American dream is still alive and well for immigrants dying to come here, but run-of-the-mill Americans would rather have the gov’t take care of them instead of carving out their own slice of the dream. Or, maybe that is the new American Dream.
Behold the black swan of Death!
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/black_swan.gif
Not gay Chivas. You rock.
HAHAHA Black Swan that is so funny, especially the caption. Looks kind of like a Black Duck though.
You guys are dicks.
At your service.
Fuck the banks.
*REPEAT*
Fuck the banks.
Wood and Boca
thanks
That black swan is priceless!
Fly’s TA may look something like that except he always has to draw in a cock and balls.
Check out this video of a guy going totally nuts in an office:
http://www.break.com/index/office-worker-goes-absolutely-insane.html
It could be secret video of Fly’s trader/servant after it was pointed out he screwed up Fly’s trades.
banks are fucked, true —
but why is XHB up 2.3% today?
Going to be hard to crash and burn if the oil bubble is pricked — that could free up a few hundred trillion dollars in discretionary money…
No doubt the next few days are going to be up 200, down 200 points — probably in the same day. Daytrader heaven but probably ulcer time for investors and swing traders looking at more than an hour.
I’m going to corner the market in chagrin, so Jake and Fly can’t mention QTWW any time it goes up.
When QTWW goes down, I’ll be up in Bernanke’s helicopter, raining chagrin down on their heads.
The solar plays look ripe for picking on the back of the impending crude realities. I have a fairly stout position in crude shorts now (APA, SWN, OIH, and DUG (long)). But a side play would be to go short a couple solars based on a crude pullback and overbought conditions for a couple of names like ENER and FSLR. ENER has had 1 insider buy and 5 insider sales in the past 3 months while the stock has rocketed up to extreme overbought conditions on low volume. The latest push up was on the back of short covering as shorts were reduce to 20% from 36%. A close below 59.25 on ESLR triggers a short signal. FSLR has a overbought condition on the weekly plus a bearish engulfing on the weekly chart. Shorts have upped their stake to a paltry 5.9%, so there are slim chances for a short squeeze higher. But check this, while the stock marched higher from the 180 level to 300, there were 86 insider sales happenin (only 6 buys for a net sale of 900,000 shares). All I’m sayin is that if anyone is looking for an alternative play while crude cools its jets, these are two correlated high fliers that give you reason to look.
CSIQ is a permanent short I keep on for now. Canadian Solar based in China that has a great order book but no earnings. MOre Cheez Whiz pleez. It is really time for the Agri momo fuckwads to get kicked in the shins along with oil. Some of the USO money has gone in shorting SMN. Either way it is time for POT and MOS to scrape their knees. Proviso, there are meetings now scheduling strafing runs into Muhlastan – crude is a dangerous thing to sell short.
Calvino or others,
On a LT holding, would you short against the box, buy puts and pay the divy or hedge via an inverse index fund or a specific stock in anticipation of another leg down?
Edit: USO money has gone in “shorting” SMN or out of USO and into SMN long (as it is an inverse etf)?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121254369208443705.html
Ed McMahon in foreclosure
That is Correct sir.
Fuck Ed McMahon. Let him downsize.
As I said back in april, Fuck LEH.
write downs of only 6.5% gross of hedges on a $89,106M mortgage portfolio for fiscal year 2007, comprised of $25,194M (an increase from (8,000+) in L3 assets all while their WAL on RMBS assets doubled to 9 from 5. Are you fucking kidding me? Many Alt-A’s are trading at 70 cents on the dollar.
What ever happened to that ridiculous convertible they issued two months ago just to prove that they could raise capital, even though they didn’t need the capital?
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/06/04/64-mr-mortgage-news-picks-of-the-day/
monsieur mortgage on the death of LEH
and btw, did you see on CNBC yesterday after LEH went sub30, they frantically scoured the investment universe to find misguided OPM managers who were willing to go on air, that were buying shares of LEH & could wax positive on its future? They trotted out 2 willing lambs.
mrkcbill:
Ed can go live on Johnny’s old boat. Or maybe there’s room in Johnny’s mausoleum.
from wikipedia:
“Life after Carson
In the 1990s, McMahon was reputed to be worth in excess of US$200 million in real estate holdings (particularly in Malibu) and real estate partnerships, although his net worth declined somewhat, due to several divorce settlements and a nationwide drop in real estate.
From 1997 to 1998, he appeared in the situation comedy, The Tom Show, starring Tom Arnold.
In April 2002, McMahon sued his insurance company, insurance adjusters, and several environmental cleanup contractors over breach of contract related to negligence in cleaning up water damage after a broken water pipe was repaired in his Beverly Hills, California house. The lawsuit alleged that moisture from the pipe break caused toxic mold to spread, sickened his wife, Pamela, and members of the household staff, killed the family dog, Muffin, and ruined his priceless memorabilia collection. The case was reported to have been settled out of court for US$7.2 million.
In March 2008, it was announced McMahon was recovering from a broken neck and two subsequent surgeries. He was injured in 2007 in a fall.”
Do or Die, time for LEH
HEARD ON THE STREET
Decision Time for Lehman
Balance-Sheet Woes
Most Likely to Force
Big Strategic Shift
By PETER EAVIS and DAVID REILLY
June 4, 2008; Page C18
It is time to sort out the Lehman problem.
With its stock falling two days in a row, investors see Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as the latest firm weighing on financial stocks.
The problems in Lehman’s balance sheet could force the firm to issue a large amount of equity — or to sell part, or all, of itself to a larger financial firm.
While such options would be excruciating for the company’s management and existing shareholders, that may be what it takes to bolster confidence in the investment bank — and to stop concerns about the firm affecting the wider financial system.
Following an 8.1% drop Monday, Lehman shares slid 9.5% Tuesday. The latest decline came even though Lehman was buying back large amounts of its own shares. Tuesday in New York Stock Exchange trading, Lehman shares were down $3.22 at $30.61, 22% below their book value — the measure of a company’s net worth based on assets minus liabilities — at the end of February.
The steep discount to book value apparently reflects investor discontent about the values Lehman has placed on its assets, many of which are backed by distressed real-estate loans. And the discount is also a sign that investors doubt management’s ability to navigate this crunch.
Lehman is scheduled to report a loss for its fiscal second quarter, ended May 30, when it reports results the week of June 16.
Lehman’s first option is to raise a large amount of capital. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Lehman was weighing whether to issue as much as $4 billion in new stock. But Tuesday’s drop in Lehman’s share price — the stock was down about 15% at one point during the day — makes it harder to sell new stock.
Selling at this level would be more expensive for the firm, especially if a buyer demanded a steep discount to the current depressed price. Lehman’s market value has fallen to about $17 billion, so even a $4 billion capital raise is nearly equal to about 25% of the firm.
And investors may want to see Lehman raise even more than $4 billion to cover any future losses from marking down the value of its assets. Lehman is likely to report large losses on trades made to hedge assets in the second quarter. And critics argue that Lehman has lagged behind in marking down the value of assets backed with distressed residential and commercial mortgages.
There is another important reason why Lehman may need new capital: It likely needs extra cash to forestall another downgrade by ratings agencies.
Standard & Poor’s Corp. Monday downgraded Lehman to single-A from single-A-plus, but kept the firm on negative watch. Lehman had indicated that such a downgrade could force it to post about $200 million in additional collateral to back derivatives trades.
Another downgrade could force the firm to post $5.4 billion in additional collateral, according to a note Tuesday from Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. and a former Lehman chief financial officer.
Lehman’s other option is to sell a stake to another firm or to sell out completely. The problem here is that the credit crisis has left few prospective buyers. So who might be left to step up?
At the right price, Lehman may make an attractive target for a private-equity firm or hedge-fund group that wants to add brokerage and investment-banking operations. Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman is a Lehman alum who has long wanted to add more investment-banking businesses to his firm.
Citadel Group, a money manager with some sales and trading operations, may want to do the same. J.C. Flowers proposed buying Bear Stearns before its collapse, so interest from that buyout group wouldn’t be a surprise.
A large commercial bank may also be drawn to Lehman at a discount to book value, especially if it gets time to go over the investment bank’s assets to assess their value.
It is possible that Lehman, which survived the 1998 market meltdown and the credit crisis in March, can weather the latest storm. Lehman does have some time to work out if it wants to do something drastic, like sell out. Lehman can avoid a short-term funding squeeze since it can borrow directly from the Federal Reserve, but the Fed could get impatient if Lehman doesn’t do something soon.
So, it can’t put off the tough choices for much longer.
LEH like BSC — are simply illusions.
They are not ‘banks’ Banks make money. LEH and BSC were simply lucky gamblers that ran out of luck. They never had anyone’s interests in mind except for their own.
Amazing that people still want to throw money at them. Stupidity reigns.
Goddamit is CNBC going to talk about this magical “Golden Boy” all fucking morning. Fuck I thought this was a fucking financial network.
rev shark simplifies the LEH conundrum
LEH Troubles Roil the Broad Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/4/2008 8:21 AM EDT
Who goes a-borrowing, goes a-sorrowing.
— American proverb
For a couple of months now, many market players have been hopeful that the worst is over and that the market is going to continue to climb. In particular, the thinking is that all the bad news has been priced into banks and brokers, which have already taken some massive writedowns.
Lehman Brothers (LEH – commentary – Cramer’s Take) and several other banks, particularly in Europe, are now calling into the question whether their capitalizations are adequate. The big problem is that there is just too much leverage out there.
Let’s consider the Lehman balance sheet. As of the end of February, Lehman had assets of $786 billion and liabilities of $761 billion, which leaves net equity of $25 billion. In other words, the company is leveraged at around 31-to-1. It may even be far worse than that if the valuation of assets is as aggressive as many think it is.
To see how dangerous this is, consider what happens if an individual investor used this sort of leverage. Say you have $50,000 in equity that you leverage at 30-to-1. That gives you $1,500,000 in capital. What happens if you are fully invested and then suffer a fairly minor loss of just 3.5%? You lose $52,500 and your entire equity of $50,000 is wiped out. You are now broke.
Even the best and most conservative investors in the world are very likely to suffer a loss of 3.5% or more just from the normal volatility in the stock market. Now, what happens if you are an investment bank that has been buying very risky debt instruments that are leveraged beyond the 30-to-1 you are already leveraged? It becomes increasingly likely that a minor amount of volatility in the debt market will wipe out your equity.
That in a nutshell is the problem the financial sector is facing right now. It is overleveraged, and volatility in the debt market threatens to wipe out its equity if it doesn’t raise more capital. Even if the banks raise more capital, the extent of the leverage is so great that more writedowns will once again quickly impair balance sheets.
This is the worry that is pressuring the market this morning. As I stated yesterday, we also have a deteriorating technical picture, and even with the benefit of lower crude oil prices there are still plenty of negatives weighing on us.
A lot of folks have been trying to call a bottom in financials, and as is so often the case when trying to call turning points, the prevailing momentum is continuing and the turn is not coming as they hope. Until financials stabilize, this market will remain in a state of flux. Something dramatic is obviously going on with Lehman, and that will likely drive the market direction today.
Alias: BPOE
When I was a kid and worked at the Jersey Shore the old Black men would tell me you have no excuse to fail in life you are white. You could be an Astronaut or President. I hope this stops the black people that make fun of the smart black kids. Now these kids can make a difference someday. Fuck the Bling Bling. Get with the program!!!
I wanna take some profits from shorting financials, but it seems like everyone is already shorting LEH, CORS, FED, DSL, etc. I am thinking about tackling the fattest bitch at this pig party, GS, and shorting it. Anyone think this porker is ready to be turned into chops?
Juice, Thanks for all the articles the past couple days.
you would think McMahon would be liquid after all this time…I’m sorry for his injury, but this is worse than the first lotto winners being broke.
anyone have any restaurant or retail short ideas?
HOV CEO is full of shit. Erin is giving him softballs, letting him pontificate about congress. Fuck off I say.
FYI — a little “near term” fibonacci action in FED this morning. Bouncing right now against it’s 61.8% retrace of the recent dead cat bounce at $15.49.
Nice time to short if it fails at this level….
juice – how about short kss?
thx, already short KSS
welcome to the short squeeze
CTX looks like an interesting trade. It’s tested this level of support 3 times since November.
If it drops below $18, dump it.
the KASS financial rally finally occurs … still not back to even on his call. I bet he takes the trade off and declares victory.
Fed to Market: Mission Accomplished.
Crazy story…
Has this happened to anyone else… I was long QLD over 3000 shares yesterday and QLD was up over 1% at 89.75 in the morning. Things looked shaky overall and I knew I was going to be busy so I set a stop at 85.75 just in case the market puked and I wasn’t there to watch. The next thing I know I’m getting a text that my stop was executed. By the time I logged in the market was up again and now it’s taking off. When I looked at price action it looks like the market just dropped right down to my price -4 points, took out my stop, and then started higher. How is this f-ing possible?
It seems like the index is being manipulated like a simple stock?? Does anyone else feel like this market is a POS?
Speaking of short squeeze…I hoped LEH would have gone up 10-20% today to crush some of these psuedo-Ivy league Biz school grads known as Ameritrade, E-trade, and Scottrade account holders. Just the fact that BSC happened and LEH looks like BSC means that it’s going to trade the opposite of BSC.
>How is this f-ing possible?
That’s the possible result that comes with that trading style. What the fuck do you expect to happen? It’s like buying a Mustang and expecting it to bank a 60% curve going 80mph.