I’m likely to be less brave, the closer we get to the Fed meeting. Considering how much the market has sprinted in recent weeks, I do not want to be left holding the bag, should Bernanke and Co. displease Mother Market.
So, all recent purchases may get blown out, in order to raise cash and limit market exposure.
It’s worth noting, if “The Fly” had not got his balls blown off in his short positions, he would not be this cautious.
Either way you slice it, ag plays are done. POT, MON and MOS are yesterdays newspaper. I will cover my POT short, under $100.
Finally, I will be taking profits on MER and UYG, up at these levels. And, I will hold LAZ, HANS and WB, for greater upside.
CTRP is not done going up. And, SNCR is a piece of shit. Six out of 7 isn’t too bad.
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I think we get no cut or .25 by Fed (based on Fed futures). The Fed will be done for awhile. Either way the dollar should bounce on this and Ags,gold,oil and other commodities are done for in the short term, anyway. It looks like the commodity stocks are setting up for this.
TraderCaddy,
False. You cannot predict the future.
Yeah, Ags are done…If they don’t cut, ags fall, if they cut .25 points, and emphasize no more cutting, ags fall. The only way they will rally, is if they cut .50 with an easing stance (very unlikely).
I’m not buying financials to go long until we break out of 27 XLF range. Otherwise, your just playing a dead cat’s bounce and with most financials already up 25%, I’m kind of hesitant. Plus, that Libor shit is still highly abnormal. I’ll bet those fuckers have a freakin cemetary in their closets.
Fly, what kind of pair tradings are you creating? Short ags, long financials? Short ags, oil, long tech, financials?
True. Just a reasonable guess based on what I see the market is saying.
P.S. Uncle Sam, I liked James Cagney in Yankee Doodle Dandy-also the Three Stooges short with the same name.
Already priced in. Dollar rebound happened last week because of expectations of only 25 bps (from 50 bps) cut and maybe rate increases in later 08. Dollar rebound also made Ag correct.
However, this latest rally tells me the market is pricing in space aliens picking us up in 2010. They are going to offer us 30% on our stocks and take us to the Planet Belbikor.
and your LEH position?
FED inching its way back to the $17-17.25 mark here. Could see a downturn from there, or from the first rebound fib (23.6%) at %18.05.
DSL also losing jooze (sic) again.
Where’s Chivas?
You watching the $TRANsylvanian today? You see where it is right now?
I am only long 1,000 LEH.
It really doesn’t count.
I threw a little money at GLW, IBM and JNJ this morning,
the longer this goes on, the more fucking pissed i am getting
this is how bearshitters are born, i presume?
Watching the Cubes very closely here. They are right on the downtrend line ($47.55-ish) and their volume is very light. Could be a nice short here, depending on the rest of the market.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Sleeping here with my finger on DZZ.