Do not fear anything, your government will make sure there is food on your plate and diamonds on your rims. The bear market is officially over, thanks to the ingenious plan of Jamie Dimon and the kids from Bear.
Not only did those rascals trick us into thinking [[BSC]] was worth $2, they even tricked the government. From what I understand, the U.S. Treasury sent Jamie Dimon to his room and told him to write on the blackboard: “I will never trick the government again,” 100 times.
Leading the market are the financials and “ag plays.” Despite being smoked out on my [[SMN]] position, I feel good—since the recession is over and people are going back to work.
Luckily for me, the “earnings masters” over at [[LEH]] are taking a breather today, allowing “simple Fly” to bank a little coin on his miniature short position.
As for general trading:
My bearish friends keep calling me, saying: “we will not get past 12,500 because…” As you can see, the sentence is incomplete because I keep hanging up on them in mid-sentence.
Instead of trading, today I will celebrate the new bull market, coupled with the first trading day of spring, by painting my office “government green.”
Developing…
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Praise be The Government. They must really care about us.
God save Bernanke.
LNN is a fucking machine, thanks Fly.
Don’t thank me. Thank the government. Without them, I would not be here to pick stocks.
the transports are leading the way up. they have taken out their 50 and 200 day moving average. they also have taken out the feb highs. imo that implies that the dow, spx and q’s will take out the feb highs and at the minimum will test their 200 day moving averages.
I can see the headlines already:
JPM agrees to up their offer for BSC to $50 a share. Shares of BSC trading at $75 on the news.
All time highs, here we come.
“Don’t thank me. Thank the government. Without them, I would not be here to pick stocks.”
HAHAHA
The market will come out with a “The Fly is always winning, even when he seems like he’s losing badly” event, shortly
To the untrained eye, it does appear “The Fly” is losing badly.
However, I challenge you to look even closer.
There really is no better joy in the world of economics than the invisible hand of the free market!
P.S.: I’m a god…I’m so good I’m even making MVIS jump almost 10% today!
naturally you’re not losing, hence the prediction.
lol BSC was the eaisest money in the world…
First you just see all of the put buying when it’s at 60 8 days till expiration, then it rallies up from 4 to 7 at a $2 buyout… Not wanting to go short or long as short could kill you if there’s another bid, and long does not make sense with the buyout at $2, a strangle was about the eaisest play in the world, as you know it’s gotta go one way or another significantly.
I hope someone besides me bought a strangle or straddle on BSC… Time to cash out and roll in my money!
Funny. No comments today at all on my I’m Getting Bullish Post.
Straddle is an investing machine from God.
“Funny. No comments today at all on my I’m Getting Bullish Post.”
That’s because everyone is jealous of your charts.
And negative 3 on my karma? WTF?
Bernanke and his beard is like Sampson and his hair. If you wanna see weakness you gotta shave it off. Until then he possess superhuman power.
I gotta tell you, I wasn’t expecting today’s run; especially the XLB (right now hovering at the 50 days MA). Up fuckin 5%.
I still have my bearish bias, and until we hit 1375/1380 and set up newer highs. I’m done shorting financials, don’t want to get fucked on 15%-20% upsides(although anybody seen the put option activity on Merrill, its fuckin sick), but what the fuck is up with ags name?
If we do, thats a big “if”, have a new beginning bullmarket are ags going to rally for another 200% for year? Give me a break…We’re near very critical levels for SMN, technical speaking.
Fly, I’m just wondering whats your stance for entry/exit points in the SP500?
Nice little short squeeze in HOG. Either that, or everyone is going to use their $300 tax rebate to buy a $30,000 Harley.
Should LNN tick over 104, I will be shorting it, despite the mutual/hedge fund fuckers who toss around other peoples money, likely gunning it to 110 for Q1 end.
Do not fight the establishment. We will eventually all have a v-chip implanted that will cause us to automatically start buying stocks every time the DOW threatens to have greater than a 300 point down day. Clinical trials in progress since the 2007 highs have shown great success.The 600 dollar tax rebate is just the government seeding the masses bank accounts in preparation for phase 2 since they know J6P is a hopeless broke looser. Resistance is futile.
Viva La Kolektive!
Dick, why not?
That’s only Bear Stearns leverage, anyway.
fm minyanville on the BSC scammage
Something Smells Funky
This JP Morgan (JPM)/Bear Stearns (BSC) thing smells funky to me.
Either JPM should buy Bear outright without any backstop from the NY Fed or BSC should go to zero and become part of history. That JPM is willing to sweeten the deal to the tune of 5X strongly implies there are a whole host of derivatives/counter-party exposures that JPM has to a BSC bankruptcy that both JPM and the Fed know about but are not disclosing.
Jeff Macke
11:04:59 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Good Cops, Bad Cops
Greetings from New York where the saga of Bear Stearns (BSC) is serving as a great reminder that the inner-more workings of Wall Street are a murky heart of darkness to all but a very few. $2 was absurdly insulting, as an offer, but that seemed part of the point. “F(orget) the equity players. We’re all about restoring liquidity and confidence in the system” was the message, right? Of course, it was a fake price, created by a fake bidding process. $2 was going to end up in court forever as shareholders were incented to simply walk, rather than vote in favor of its own vaguely corrupt beat-down.
Now the offer is $10 and, just like last time, BSC is ripping much higher than the stated bid. It seems that, again, there are parties who know much more about what’s really happening and how that reality differs than the official version. Bear never traded at $2. The buyers of the stock last week at $5 and $6 obviously “knew something”. Something material and not public. Now that Bear is trading $12 the impression seems to be that Bear hasn’t actually been sold for anything. The game is still seemingly very much afoot in terms of what, exactly, JP Morgan (JPM) is buying, how much it’s paying and the Fed’s exact involvement.
So, the process I described last week as being less structured than a keg party is becoming more transparent. The trend is towards less Draconian measures, more favorable terms towards the equity holders and less of an outright theft by JP Morgan. Is it “right” that the financials are trading higher? Very much so. Being the beneficiaries of a fixed system is a good business. What’s less clear is what the long term impact will be from all this bailing out and billions of sloshing cash. Credit crisis are, ultimately, a question of confidence. “Give me credit” is synonymous with “have confidence in me”. We can, as a collective market, certainly be more confident that bank shares won’t be allowed to go to zero as a result of the Feds actions. What we give up in return is the illusion that the market is any, in any sense, “free”.
The game is rigged. Trade accordingly.
Fly,
are you joking or being serious about turning bullish?
Trying to remember why I sold LNN.