Just a few months ago, the sub 100 IQ’ers on CNBC told the unwashed (you), “tech is a safe haven. This time it’s different.”
Fifty percent lower, they all concede being wrong, in a big way.
In short, aside from select drugs and utilities, there are no safe havens in bear markets.
As you know, “The Fly” is quite pleased with the current order of things. His portfolio’s are rich, his Monster Energy soda supplies are plentiful and his staff of “illegal Mexcians” are jubilant over “Señor McCain’s” big win.
Typically, I would spend inordinate amounts of time, scouring the market for good stock picks. However, ever since the bear market has befallen us, I have no need to do such asshattery, since everything trades lower in a convoy.
In closing, expect more bad news to inflict severe blows to the small men who buy stocks.
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cmo crushed earnings
naturally.
CMO+
looks like we should hold this one at least through the first quarter
What happened with your CSCO call there Mr.IQ ?
Fly:
What does the future have in store for the Ag bulls such as POT, MOS, MON, CF?
Multiple Homo-Hammers OR 52-Week Highs?
Stimulus plan passed by the senate!
Time to rescue the economy $600-at-a-time!
Recession is over, bring on the ticker-tape parade!
Prepare for War
I like ACC for the dividend, and it could be a “safe haven.” College students don’t give a fuck how much the rent is when daddy is footin’ the bill.
Plus, the potheads want to live off-campus so they don’t get caught smokin’ up in the dorms.
Who wants to live in dorms when you can live in an apartment with a big screen TV and have your girlfriend come over to clean house and polish your knob?
Developing……
You know what Jesse Livermore used to say, right?
He used to say:
There ain’t no “safe haven” — there’s only New Haven!
Okay, okay, so he never really said that.
…
…
…
But it would’ve been cool if he did.
Another famous Livermore quote:
“Ouch.”
-DT
Livermore also said, “fuck this market.” That was particularly insightful.
A-dawgg
Check your DD on the ACC. A lot of the properties they manage are via contracts, not ownership. Also – the divi yield is small.
If you are sniffing around reits look at SFI. Smartest management in the business and at least you are getting paid for the risk (14%).
Livermore also famously first used the phrase “Defecate the Water Closet” to describe the market’s reaction during the Panic of 1907.
Dude, what the fuck is going on when CNN is reporting that kids are training with Al Qaida?
If you believe that then go long.
Down with the market.
Down with Rockefeller.
Classic Prospectus… how about a photoshop of what that might look like?
-DT
From the latest MBIA securities offering prospectus: “An investment in the shares involves a high degree of risk. You should not invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.”
Really?
liverwart said; ‘there ain’t no safe haven, for haevens safe’
and noone knew wtf he was talkin bout then, or now
it could have been the shrooms talkin
I would have thought that NLY, ANH, MFA and CMO etc … would be considered a safe haven. At least until the government fails and defaults.
Kass shaved his beard when Heli Beni shaved 125
How come no one was talking about CME today?
Senate passes “Stimulus” Plan. Thanks fuckers on the Hill…….maybe GDP will only decrease by .9% next quarter instead of 1%…..hahahaha
Fly:
Could you please invent something like “a special golden asshat award” and give it to CRAMER, he is annoying. I can’t take more bullshit!!! my BULLSHITMETTER just went crazy today. Those poor bastards that listen to him are going to loose their shirts… May be we can create an inverse ETF if we put toghether all his recommendations ….
F this market. Blew another account today.
@Jake,
Thanks for taking the time to post “No Easy Ha-Ha’s” on the PG.
When it comes to interpreting Fed data series in context, I’m definitely Joey Bag O’Donuts. But two things don’t pass even Joey’s smell test for the Greenrush analysis:
(1) Google “aggregate reserves of depository institutions”, exclude .gov sites, and all you get is tinfoil hatters. Odd, no?
(2) If that analysis is prima facie correct, we shouldn’t be seeing orderly markets; we should be seeing bid-wanted chaos preventing opens on just about any instrument, shouldn’t we?
Thoughts?
The slope of hope dude, tim timmy , is setting up bullish trades … kinda getting bullish
interwesting … wery interesting
Spaulding & Jake,
On my site (there’s a much higher level of discourse going on over there…) Moom mentioned that the relationship between those 2 numbers has changed due to something called the “Term Auction Facility.”
I’m happy I didn’t blow thousands on a generator and 50lb bags of rice.
-DT
@DT,
Thanks! Moom makes things all better with five text lines.
If you go ahead with the generator and rice, though, your economic stimulation will earn the teary-eyed gratitude of your countrymen.
Or maybe not.
Spaulding!
1) Here’s the page dude… looks like the Federal Reserve’s site to me… no tinfoil in da house:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
And there’s that $8 bn deficit.
2) I have no accurate answer for you on that. Here’s some “could be’s” —
Could be that this number leaves out “vault reserves” (actual cash on hand) and is only incorporating year end write downs of questionable assets, could be that as long as the Fed is supplying liquidity the “market” is okay with the independent banks virtual insolvency. This could be the result of one or two massive banks throwing the whole “net” universe into the negative.
I just don’t know. It’s interesting to note, however, that the money aggregates stay relatively stable, even as bank reserves plummet. Where is all that new money going?
Here’s an interesting piece from a speech by Bernake on how Volker used control of non-borrowed deposits to tame inflation.
The closest the Federal Reserve came to a “monetarist experiment” began in October 1979, when the FOMC under Chairman Paul Volcker adopted an operating procedure based on the management of non-borrowed reserves.11 The intent was to focus policy on controlling the growth of M1 and M2 and thereby to reduce inflation, which had been running at double-digit rates. As you know, the disinflation effort was successful and ushered in the low-inflation regime that the United States has enjoyed since. However, the Federal Reserve discontinued the procedure based on non-borrowed reserves in 1982. It would be fair to say that monetary and credit aggregates have not played a central role in the formulation of U.S. monetary policy since that time, although policymakers continue to use monetary data as a source of information about the state of the economy.
We know from our economic history that Volker pulled this “control” off by raising rates like a house afire.
_____________
I’m not quite sure what these TAF auctions have to do with stabilizing depositories, but I think it’s somewhat coincidental that they started in December and there have been 4 now through January 28. Interestingly, the demand for these notes seems to be slipping dramatically, even though rates are 125 basis points lower for the banks to borrow. Is it because the member banks must put up “good collateral” to participate in these auctions?:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taf.htm
Jakey,
My new position on the coming bank collapse is the three word mantra, “Term Auction Facility.”
I lost sleep last night trying to figure out where I was going to fit all my rice.
Say it with me, “Term Auction Facility.” It doesn’t even matter if you don’t know what it means… it’s simply “the answer” and you need to have faith in it.
-DT
can you tell us a bit how shorting DECK worked out from yesterday to today?
Thanks, Jake.
Sorry; I didn’t explain (1) very well. The FRB data series is exactly as you say. What I meant (and didn’t say) was that by excluding .gov from the results, I’d end up with non-Fed commentary results, all of which seems to either blame the Jews for that $8B def or call for more Ron Paul Sovereign Dollars, or some such shit.
Your thesis of one or two megabanks forming the whole rathole seems to comport with talk of all the insiders at tiny-cap banks buying wildly now that their spreads have widened.
And your point about the recently instituted auctions with too many notes left over makes me wonder if I should cut in line in front of DT at Home Depot.
Fuck it — I’ll just eat something. Why is Porterhouse staring at me?
Dude, read up on my comments on the TAF on your blog.
I already alerted Moomster to respond as well.
I don’t think he’s looking at the right stuff. Yeah, the TAF is funding the member banks but,
1) Why should that affect non-borrowed reserves one way or another? Wouldn’t the TAF auctions replenish those reserves?
2) Why is the amount being requested at the TAF auctions going down when the price (ie, the auction rate) is declining? Are banks all “okay” now, and don’t need the TAF money, or — darker scenario — are they running low on “good collateral” to pledge?
@DT:
I imagine it would look something like this.
Dino —
Go nuts on the FAQ’s for “TAF’s”
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taffaq.htm
You tell me if it’s nervous making or not. Maybe I’m just paranoid.
Prospectus.
Hilarity, really, no fooling. (is that really Jesse L., btw?)
But isn’t a “water closet” just a toilet?
Shouldn’t we find the olde fashioned term for “shower” if there is one?
re water closets — HTH:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=upper+decker
Update: FXE broke support at $145. If you don’t know, the FXE is a sign of USD strength/weakness. In any case, this puts pressure on stocks and oil.
DUG+
USO-
News Flash!!!!
Cramer is an asshat and an asshole.
For chrissakes Jake, I’m going to have to stop reading this blog at night, because you’re giving me nightmares.
In fact, while you were posting the FAQ here, I was posting it at my place. It stressed me out so much that I felt compelled to calm myself down by posting a picture of Paris Hilton cleaning a pool in the comment section.
And finally, Prospectus, that’s excellent! Your photoshopping skills are nearly marketable.
-DT
@Jake: Yes, that’s really both of ’em. I couldn’t think of “ye olde bath-shower” or what have you, so WC it was.
@Spaulding: LMFAO @ “Beef Stew” & “Upper Decker”!!
@DT: At least something I do has the potential to make money, since I have lost the hat to go over my ass in the markets 😛
Spaulding… I’ve actually witnessed an “upper decker.”
It’s an “SEC” thing… these freakin’ Southern Boys can be cruel to each other.
The FLY:
PAL now tops the American Bull list for AMEX. See:
http://americanbulls.com/
And read:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/63529-investing-in-a-resource-constrained-world-part-ii
And BUY tomorrow!
JJ’s homepage:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ass-tick
JJ,
I short SWC today. Looking forward to some quick gains.
-DT
Some great comments here.
DT, Jake, Spaulding, all on point…DT the least though