iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,784 Blog Posts

Predictions for 2008

The elections will be gay.

Taxes will go up.

Emerging markets will get their teeth kicked in, especially “BRIC.”

Commodity prices will remain robust, as food supplies dwindle.

Oil will keep a tight range of $75-90.

Natural gas will break $10.

Gold will break $1,000.

Two major financial institutions will fail.

There will be mergers in the brokerage sector.

Agriculture stocks will outperform in the first half, then dive in the 2nd.

Semiconductor stocks will bore investors to death.

[[CC]] will file for bankruptcy protection.

[[HOV]] will file for bankruptcy protection.

Stem cell stocks will gain momentum, with strong Democratic poll showings.

Utilities will continue to outperform, as old people look for yield.

[[PFE]] will make a big acquisition.

Many solar burrito stocks will drop by 50%, before recovering.

[[RIMM]] will get hit hard, in the second half of 2008.

[[AAPL]] will do well.

[[GOOG]] will lose mojo.

The Dow Jones will fall by 15%.

The Nasdaq will fall by 15-20%.

“The Fly” will still bank coin, despite spending too much time talking to retards on the internets.

Finally, iBankCoin.com will be worth millions.

Viz.

UPDATE: The Earth will explode, much to your chagrin.

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17 comments

  1. Danny

    That sounds accurate to me.

    Thanks for taking the time to tell us about your time travel.

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  2. nncoco

    Serious post. Can’t disagree from here. Well done.

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  3. Bearshitter!

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  4. CubsRock

    Bearshitter indeed. How bout updating the main logo of your page, higher stock prices…

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  5. Woodshedder

    You left out:

    MVIS will leave a huge turd in the investor pool.

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  6. Juice

    The Fly is channeling Doug Kass.

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  7. mrkcbill

    Fly’s Favorite New Christmas Present

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  8. Dirty Internet Money
    Dirty Internet Money

    Fly,
    Congratulations on the new site…
    and thanks from all the leaches.

    Happy New Year!
    Wild Night (best version) –
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glm7cVBZjqw

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  9. Raptor

    This is the Raptor speaking:

    I Like most of your predictions and, of course, your overall gloomy outlook.

    As a trader, 2008 will be interesting and profitable provided one stays disciplined. We’ll see plenty of “rallies within established bear trends”. Might I add that my mean reversion models are likely to perform extremely well as heightened volatility kicks in.

    FX will be my asset class of choice.

    Off to prepare tonight’s event, have a good one…

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  10. alex

    I was curious as to why you think two financial institutions will fail this year?

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  11. crazy6108

    this is the coolest place ever! After visiting all kinds of sites, I figured out that this one is the most interesting

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  12. Way to go on that oil call! Although 1 miss out of 20 ain’t bad…

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  13. RC

    Fly for President.

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  14. FastCat

    WOW! I just read your original post. Right on the money. Congrats!

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  15. Hindsight

    On the money? Hardly.

    Taxes will go up. – Federal taxes did not go up during 2008, AFAIK.

    Emerging markets will get their teeth kicked in, especially “BRIC.” – All markets got their teeth kicked in.

    Commodity prices will remain robust, as food supplies dwindle. – Since the early summer peak, “wheat and corn — two cereals at the base of the human food chain — have dropped more than 40 percent. Oil has dropped 44 percent. Metals like aluminum, copper and nickel have declined by a third or more.” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/business/economy/14commodities.html?partner=rssnyt

    Oil will keep a tight range of $75-90. – Oil has actually had a huge range, from an all-time high of $144/gallon to below $40 in early December, 2008.

    Natural gas will break $10. – It did, and then fell again.

    Gold will break $1,000. – It did briefly break $1000, and then went into meltdown.

    Two major financial institutions will fail. – It depends on what you mean by major. There have been 5 so far that failed with assets over $1 billion, with one being the largest bank failure ever.

    The Dow Jones will fall by 15%. As of 12/12/08 it was 8,629.68–down 34% since Jan. 2nd.

    So of Fly’s guesses that I checked, they were mostly wrong. Some of them were partly true, but none got the whole picture. For example, natural gas did break $10, but not predicting the big price drop right after that peak limits the value of the prediction.

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  16. Topper Harley

    How’d 2008 go as per Fly’s predictions:

    The elections will be gay.
    “Don’t think so. They were gayer than gay with McCain’s nomination standing out as the height of gayness. Fly loses”

    Taxes will go up.
    “What taxes? Fly loses”

    Emerging markets will get their teeth kicked in, especially “BRIC.”
    “Fly wins”

    Commodity prices will remain robust, as food supplies dwindle.
    “Fly loses”

    Oil will keep a tight range of $75-90.
    “Fly loses again”

    Natural gas will break $10.
    “Fuck Nat gas”

    Gold will break $1,000.
    “Fly loses”

    Two major financial institutions will fail.
    “hmmmmmmmm”

    There will be mergers in the brokerage sector.
    “Absolutely. Fly wins”

    Agriculture stocks will outperform in the first half, then dive in the 2nd.
    “Absolutely. Fly wins again”

    Semiconductor stocks will bore investors to death.
    “They always bored investors to death. nothing new here.”

    [[CC]] will file for bankruptcy protection.
    “Amazing”

    [[HOV]] will file for bankruptcy protection.
    “Not yet.”

    Stem cell stocks will gain momentum, with strong Democratic poll showings.
    “What cell stocks??”

    Utilities will continue to outperform, as old people look for yield.
    “Fly loses”

    [[PFE]] will make a big acquisition.
    “???????????”

    Many solar burrito stocks will drop by 50%, before recovering.
    “Wow”

    [[RIMM]] will get hit hard, in the second half of 2008.
    “Wow Wow”

    [[AAPL]] will do well.
    Wow wow -wow -Wow –WOW”

    [[GOOG]] will lose mojo.
    Great call Fly

    The Dow Jones will fall by 15%.
    yawn.

    The Nasdaq will fall by 15-20%.
    yawn yawn.

    “The Fly” will still bank coin, despite spending too much time talking to retards on the internets.
    “That’s the best part about you Fly”

    Finally, iBankCoin.com will be worth millions.
    “Not yet. But eventually will be so”

    Viz.

    UPDATE: The Earth will explode, much to your chagrin.
    “What about space alien magicians?”

    My take – The Fly wins when it matters.
    Fuck everyone.

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