Danny nailed the “back of the dirty envelope” economist, nicely.
All of a sudden, everyone is a fucking macro-economist, with extensive field work in the fucktarded art of shorting stocks.
If 99% of the weak kneed investor class is bearish, I think it makes sense to take the other side of that trade, no?
I mean, some of you come here declaring “the next Great Depression is here.” Then, you proceed to explain how “cool” and “savory” you are for buying puts or “loading up short BIDU.”
Mark my words, the wheels of your shitmobile will get knocked off, shortly.
I’m not as old as some of you kidney stone recipients. But, I can attest to this market environment being “reverse 1999,” where all of a sudden everyone is a short selling machine.
You’ve got inverse ETF’s, OEX puts and “technical breakdowns” setting up to make you “Santa Claus money,” right?
Moreover, everyone on the street knows CFC, WM and BSC are going bankrupt—as if it already happened.
Amazing shit.
After all, the banks are a mess. The homies are dead. And the consumer is buried.
Right?
Until you read something like this, you thought you had it all figured out, didn’t you?
Prepare for swift decapitation, via credit card guillotine— fuckface.
“The Fly” shall relish your pending doom, as if it were some sort of real doom that was worth “relishing.”
Viz.
UPDATE: Internet sales up 22% from last year. Again, bearshitters, prepare for the “credit card figure four leg lock.”
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I am well aware of this fact.
I once predicted the headline of the local newspaper 4 times running.
Was one of the headlines “Pessimist dies in a bathtub half full.”
Nah, “mayor caught with hooker” “Wheel falls off bus” etc etc.
you talking to me?
Suck on Deezz Nutz…
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases yesterday, an 8.3 percent increase from last year, after retailers promoted electronics and toys to woo shoppers.
Buylo, yes.
Fly:
Yes I am.
Cheese:
Check how many retailers opened their doors at midnight last year before you begin trusting those “same store sales” figures.
Seriously– anyone who has a brain in their head (granted, granted) will wait as long as possible for the retailers– blood streaming from their eyes from the pressure of divesting year end inventory to make their quarter– to slash prices like crazed harem eunuchs in a mass capitulatory exercise as Christ’s Birth draws near.
I prefer JakeGint the bull rather than his newly minted bearshitter persona.
(BTW, I spell Scarlett Poltroon with two t’s, deal with it)
Sorry man, I gotta go with what my head is showing me. I’m as optimistic and patriotic as anyone you’d ever meet. But I gotta watch the signals.
Hope I’m wrong, really. It’s not like it’s gonna do wonders for my business, either.
Fuck you.
99% of the population is bearish.
I’ve always routed you assholes, whenever the sentiment is this glum.
This post will be updated tomorrow.
Beware.
the relief rally started friday
What the hell are you doing “deleting expletives?”
-DT
Oh wait… I know, it’s probably because of all your “corporate sponsors.”
“The Fly” has sold out to Michelle “crazy mofo” Malkin.
-DT
people retail in west virgina tell me they had the best two days they have ever had. the line to check out was running 1 hr 45min. this went on for4 hours were fine in this poor place in wv is doing this well
Rwomania enjoy 12.5 increase in this Black Friday beeforw Chreestmas yoy. Goats ,Wi’s and Stahbucks selling all very good I like.
Jake, why do you have such a bearish lean right now. Did you get a crewcut or do you see fundamentals deteriorating across the board. You have a pretty convincing rap.
Yep everyone was right again like always in history, the consumer is dead huh pussies. Fucking betting against the consumer has been a losing bet for 75 years.
NEW YORK (AP) – The nation’s retailers had a robust start to the holiday shopping season, according to results announced Saturday by a national research group that tracks sales at retail outlets across the country.
According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets, total sales rose 8.3 percent to about $10.3 billion on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, compared with $9.5 billion on the same day a year ago. ShopperTrak had expected an increase of no more than 4 percent to 5 percent.
“This is a really strong number. … You can’t have a good season unless it starts well,” said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, citing strength across all regions. “It’s very encouraging. When you look at September and October, shoppers weren’t in the stores.”
Gun to the head: JCG
I did a lot of field work on them over the holiday and it looks very good.
The consumer has been questioned for 20 years or more…they only stop spending and start saving during a 70’s depression of sorts.
Spend on until your hearts are content. If your nervous about the market go home and cry…I will play the market up and down while building positons in mistunderstood companies.
99% of the world is bearish, save for the geniuses of this blog, right?
Yeah, a baby broker who’s never seen a downturn sure kicks my analytical ass every day.
(eye roll)
All — my view is intermediate, not short term. We very well could get a bullshit bounce here with all this pumpy holiday cheer.
Bear markets suck, but they are a fact of life. Let’s not get delusional.
I had another weird stock dream. More to come…
Dow Theory says we are in a bear market and I will respect it until shown otherwise. However, a rise in the Dow this week to the 200 day simple MA of about 13,200 is probable due to the oversold and bearish sentiment of the market.
Exactly, there will be plenty of “relief” to keep the hopeful full of hope.
Bullshit headlines like those cited by the author are part of the program. Hey, I wonder if 99% of the people will see them, or are they just for clever “insiders?”
Let’s talk Monday afternoon.
I go to enjoy my Giants playing the Viqueens. Viz.
I, for one, like Evil Jake.
I think there should be a blog section entitled “Boomers Dreams”.
and maybe another for escapees from one flew over the cuckoos nest. iow for delusional parradium fuckers.
Dow Theory is for old cranky men. You fools overlook the fact that the S&P has not confirmed this signal. Can you say Bear Trap?
Jake: If we are heading in a dynamite car to a shit hole in hell then why was the consumer so strong as I posted earlier, pre-broker’s headline? Wouldn’t the consumer say oh fuck I am fucked and not have money to spend or credit? Why why why have these consumers been so wrong and spent money this time around? Why? Why are they all going bankrupt but can’t see it? Why is the DOW going to 7500 if the consumer is so strong? Strong record breaking sales = weak market? Why if everyone has lost their job and can’t get a new one is everyone spending so much money? Are risk managers so fucking stupid, all of them, to allow these consumers so much credit if they are all out of a job and going under? Why did I see lines out the door of JCG if everyone is broke without a job? Why could I not get my favorite electronics because they were sold out if the consumer is tapped out? Was this all a facade? Were these really just soup lines at JCG? Were they just giving away chicken flavored liquid and pieces of bread? What the fuck am I missing that you smart fucking geniuses are so informed of? Why am I now 170% long as of Wednesday afternoon? Why are my very smart hedgefund friends buying like crazy now and lightening up on their shorts? Why why why?
Ducati:
The point is the ability or inability of the consumer to spend 10.3 billion on a Friday afternoon.
The key here is not gross margins, but liquidity.
Jake:
You’re a bearshitter.
Ducati, seriously, are you saying this is a bad thing? Does this signal an implosion of the consumer. Does it show they are worthless bankrupt fucks? Did they spend like a recession is here. Did they spend way fucking less money as in half or even 1/4 of what they spent last year? If you can’t answer yes to these questions then shut the fuck up because your wrong.
By the way I know you are in the other part of the world but I will have you know that there were no sales at JCG, only full fucking priced soup lines.
Wow unemployment at 4.7% Yeah your right they are losing jobs left and right. But let me guess this is a conspiracy right, these are all fake right? And why the fuck is this cunt buying a laptop if she doesn’t have a job? Hmm… Maybe she is just mad that they are moving the fucking plant because she is in a fucking union who fails to recognize that change is here where she will have to actually work and wants to bitch.
So you say its a bad thing for the economy that they spent money right? Wow. I can’t have a conversation with someone of such low intelligence. Sorry. Please keep shorting. Your right on.
now is the time to: buy lo and after you make yr 8-10% in 1-2 weeks you sell hi – just listen to the Fly! Do u need to have him spell it out? Problem is most of you poor folks who are looking for sales in the malls this weekend don’t have more than a few G’s to invest, so you might as well stay put and dont even think of arbs
Half time and Eli Manning looking like the absolute “can’t play in the cold” pussy I’ve always known him to be.
Nice trade, Accorsi, fucktard.
______________
Gaps — you may not be aware. Markets discount six to nine months into the future. Consumers have never front run recessions. They spend until they realize their credit cards have been repossessed.
Really smart hedge funds, huh? Let’s see how many are left in eighteen months. You may have sensed an overcapacity in the market. We on the M&A side certainly have.
____________
Fly — I play what the market presents. I was a bull up til about two weeks ago when the confirms started coming in. I can’t wait to be a bull again. Those markets are far more fun.
You have a fiduciary responsibility to your clients. I’m confident you’re attending to them.
Some thoughts for you:
1) Jobs are strong. Even I took a job recently, an executive at a record label. The job is a blast, but more importantly, if the FRAKKING RECORD BUSINESS can afford me, then jobs are strong. Period.
2) The consumer, to me, is a lagging indicator. This may be contrary to conventional wisdom, but the consumer is the last to know the shit hit the fan. They usually find out after the shit was splashed on them.
3) Guys like most of you (pros) see the fella about to throw it at the fan. We may be arguing whether he’s throwing or not.
4) I recall Bill Cara writing over a year ago that financials would be the first to roll over into the bear. So far, this is what seems to be happening.
Lastly, I am watching a repeat of the Country Music Awards. I hate country as a rule, but damn if Brad Paisley, Big & Rich, Allison Krauss, and even Carrie Underwood aren’t the best performers in music. Nashville wins again.
Jake – do you do M&A for a living?
asshole, do i need to put a disclaimer after my posts? it’s anecdotal not scientific, but i thought that was self-evident. tool.
my point was that if i can get a senior leadership job in the music business, one that is a state worse than housing, then the jobs are out there to be had.
that is all.
did i mention you are a tool?
Go Boomer.
I’d pay money to see a Boomer vs. Ducati battle to the death match.
Duc:
The subprime fuckers weren’t buying shit anyway.
What you fail to acknowledge is America is “rich as balls.”
Lots of money to go around.
No point in debating it, right?
Let’s just see how the “credit card guillotine” plays out, shall we?
Personally, being the anti-American that I am, I’m very happy to see the 8.3% increase in sales. It just proves how stupid real Americans are to keep spending money they don’t have for trash they don’t need. I was counting on these idiots to accelerate credit defaults and bankruptcies going forward. I don’t care if there is a bounce to 13.2K or not, BULLSHIT aside we’re in a BEAR MARKET and I’ll continue to SHORT the rallies and cash in BIG on the next leg down to 11.7K. America has a false economy funded by cheap debt backed by corrupt financial institutions and government and facilitated by a bunch of spoiled brat retarded consumers(the true patriotic Americans…LOL). America earned the DEPRESSION that is coming. Hopefully, we will learn from it and emerge a stronger nation like we used to be. However, with the elitist corruption that makes billions off our current system and how stupid patriotic Americans are I’ll bet otherwise.
I would do Ducati in with an combination of Southern Charm (meaning walk up real nice with a big smile) as to disarm him, then, club him about the head and shoulders with a sock full of stale biscuits.
While he lays there, unconscious, I would guzzle hot hot coffee pouring my french press coffee grounds into his motorcycle’s gas tank.
I would then stuff a Big & Rich CD into his pocket, as if to say…even Nashville has the mafia. The Music Mafia.
Geezus Boom, there’s about six thousand light years between Allison Krauss and “Big & Rich.” How can you even mention them in the same sentence.
“Suck” takes on a new Webster’s illustration.
And in answer to your other question, yes.
Dook — Do you always wear headgear upon visiting the States?
Jake:
I guess these guys see it differently relating to front running a recession:
“Economists still expect that, if there is a recession, the consumer, who has kept the economy afloat for so long, will lead the fall into negative growth. The theory is that he has simply carried U.S. spending on his back for too long.”
Boomer: My company is trying to hire and we can’t seem to find enough people looking for jobs to hire. I would also mention that I receive calls from recruiters daily trying to fill positions. I guess I am living in a different country than these guys.
Dookie: I recently took a new job as well and they are paying top fucking dollar out there for people because there is a shortage of talent with so many companies needing to fill positions. So thats 2 in your sample.
If the consumer were slowing down Black Friday would’ve been a key tell.
ducati your intensity these days is fantastic.
Fly / Ducati……….08
Devildog- market is going to 20,000 -won’t take long.
“Few are those who see with their own eyes and feel with their own hearts.”
— A. Einstein
Now, I’m no Einstein. For that matter, I’m no Fly or Jake. And the only way I’m gonna jog on Grant is if I’m running from some woman’s angry ex (at least she said she was divorced). But I’m still seeing a narrow path climbing up that wall. And feeling a hint of warmth from sunshine at the top.
See y’all Monday after. Gotta go clean out my tin cup in case I need to start selling pencils on the corner again.
Peace
I’m back. I hopefully be able to address all the above asshattery, and more, as soon as I get the kids in bed.
MrKCBill: Good call on the Mizzou game. College football needs a playoff system like a cyclops needs another eye. The way things are going in the NFL (Cheatriots winning every year) and other sports being totally lame right now, college football has to seize this opportunity. An 8 or a 16 team playoff would be much more exciting than the NFL.
DevilDick and other Bears: Be careful with that Dow Theory bullshit. The Trannies (not those trannies) are going to muddle the picture. They don’t include shippers like DRYS. You may not be getting the confirmation you think you’re getting. Even if you’re correct about the bear market, we could rally for 3 months kicking bear fuckers down open elevator shafts before the bulls get punched. You could be wallet zero by then.
If you start with the basic premise that stocks require robust credit conditions for them to run, we’re probably in trouble for several months. Despite the FED cutting rates 75 basis points, credit continues to tighten no matter how you look at it.
To wit:
The only mortgages being written are conforming. Subprime and exotics are toast. The market for jumbos is limited. So how’s the $600 billion of ARMs due to reset next year supposed to be refinanced? How will the 11 months supply of housing inventory get worked off with a super tight mortgage market?
Asset backed commercial paper is a dying asset class, and structured credit in general isn’t much better. The banks/brokers/rating agencies have lost all credibility causing investors to lose confidence in the entire securitization process which stimulated lending by dispersing risk. That game may not be over completely, but it’s been suspended indefinately.
Even plain ole high yield corporate credit spreads are steadily widening out. Second lien loan market issuance is a fraction of what it used to be. The banks/brokers and FNM/FRE are each reporting several billion dollar balance sheet impairments, which will only cause credit availability to contract even more. How do you stimulate economic activity with a fucked up and contracting financing market? BTW, anyone who thinks these charges are a one or two quarter event is delusional. I’d bet my left nut many financial firms will still be impairing assets when they report 3Q08 numbers a year from now. And to top it all off, there’s over $900 billion in credit card receivables that are experiencing rising deliquency rates. As are auto loans.
Falling property tax receipts due to declining real estate values has put several municipalities in a state of distress, forcing muni bond yields higher. With the cost of capital increasing, expect cancellations of municipal projects, reducing economic activity even more.
LIBOR is spiking again. Bloomberg reported the ECB is planning a fresh new injection of liquidity Monday morning. More falling European shoes?
Am I a realist or a bearshitter?
Hey Boomer, can you get me a job in the Record business too?
Hey Boomer, I got a couple of songs to pitch ya….Skaggs turned down one of them, but what does he know?
How come I can’t find a job?
Life is hard for a cajun.
Mrkcbill, sorry about Kansas, I was sick all weekend with the disappointing loss buy LSU.
Flys right about the “swift decapitation, via credit card guillotine— fuckface”
anyone know of a double ultra etf on the china market? FXI is too tame . I’d like to buy FXI on steroids. If the consumer ain’t dead, as Drosophila maintains, then China wins via exports to fucktard american consumers.
Fuck the consumer.
buylo – no
shed – no
i might like to hire zombie, however. seems like he’d be cheap and not take breaks.
Boomer- I was kidding. About the pitch. Not about Skaggs. But thanks for nothin’, anyway.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aDisryZePitQ&refer=news
U.S. Consumers Spent 3.5% Less on Holiday Shopping
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — U.S. consumers spent 3.5 percent less during the post-Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend than a year earlier as retailers slashed prices to lure customers grappling with higher food and energy costs.
Shoppers spent an average of $347.44 on purchases from Nov. 22 through today, choosing to buy less-expensive digital- photo frames and cashmere sweaters, the National Retail Federation said today in a statement. Store visits increased 4.8 percent.
Customers have cut back on spending in the face of increased costs for milk and gasoline and the worst housing slump in 16 years. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. responded by offering holiday discounts more than two weeks earlier than last year while Macy’s Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. reduced clothing prices by as much as 60 percent.
“The sense we have this year is that shoppers are very mission-focused,” said Fred Crawford, managing director for consulting and advisory firm AlixPartners LLP. “They know who is carrying what, and at what price point.”
More than 147 million consumers visited stores over the weekend, the NRF said, based on a poll it commissioned from BIGresearch. The average spending amount last year was helped by increased sales of high-definition televisions, NRF spokesman Scott Krugman said.
“It’s the saturation of HD-TVs into the market, and also retailers recognizing that consumers will be more conservative this year and focusing on lower-priced merchandise,” he said.
November, December
Sales in November and December represent 20 percent of retailers’ annual revenue, according to the NRF. The fourth quarter accounts for almost a third of retailers’ annual profit, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Sales on Nov. 23, called Black Friday because it was the day that retailers traditionally turn a profit for the year, rose 8.3 percent from a year earlier to $10.3 billion, Chicago- based research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said. Combined sales for both Black Friday and yesterday rose 7.2 percent to $16.4 billion, the firm said today.
Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest retailer, rose 87 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $45.73 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading on Nov. 23. Shares of the Bentonville, Arkansas-based seller of the most toys in the U.S. have fallen less than 1 percent this year.
Macy’s gained $1.53, or 5.4 percent, to $30.03 in New York trading and Target Corp. advanced $3.07, or 5.7 percent, to $57.17.
Cyber Monday
Online retail spending on “Cyber Monday” may surpass $700 million, a single-day record, as customers head to Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart.com to find bargains on flat-panel televisions and toys, research firm ComScore Inc. said today.
Consumer purchases over the Internet rose 29 percent on Thanksgiving Day and 22 percent the day after, Reston, Virginia-based ComScore said. Spending tomorrow probably will exceed either of those days as people return to work from the holiday weekend, it said.
Online visits on Black Friday increased 10 percent from a year earlier, according to data released today by research firm Nielsen Online.
Web sites run by IAC/InterActiveCorp, owner of the HSN shopping channel and ticket broker Ticketmaster, were the most visited by U.S. shoppers from their homes, followed by Amazon.com, Walmart.com and Target Corp., New York-based Nielsen said.
The NRF in September predicted a 4 percent gain in total retail sales for November and December, the smallest gain since a 1.3 percent rise in 2002. The group reiterated its projection today.
BIGresearch, based in Worthington, Ohio, polled 2,395 consumers on Nov. 22-24. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
shed – nashville wins again
Fuck Nashville.
All this talk is silly, all you need to do look at the price and volume action in the market.
We rally on weak volume.
We “shit the shower” on high volume.
-DT
Fuck… can’t I delete my post for poor grammar anymore? Where’s that little trashcan?
-DT
“We “shit the shower†on high volume.”
Until we don’t—fuck face.
Poor grammar will now come with a maximum punishment of 30 years in prison.
ragin….I watched lsu lose at boudrouex’s cajun restaurant ..I’m into the whole lsu football passion. those backs on arkansas are scary good.
beg pardon? fuck nashville? i know a girl who is trying.
Fly:
We “rally on weak volume”.
Until we don’t – bullshitter!