iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,301 Blog Posts

If I Was a Bear…

I would be laughing at all of you assclowns, while smoking my crack pipe (bears smoke crack pipes).

My game plan would be precise and execution would be flawless, as opposed to the retarded shit I’m doing now.

Anyway, a bears life expectancy is very short, as bull markets tend to interrupt their devious plans with swift kicks to the neck and groin areas. So, I would have to make my money in a hurry.

If I were putting together a short portfolio, this is what I would do:

Long: FXY (Yen)- My cash reserves would be held in non-dollars, believing the dollar would continue to depreciate.

Long: GLD, SLV– More cash equivalent diversification.

Short: SHLD, ANF, JCG, NKE, UA, DECK, VLCM and JCP. If the U.S. is heading toward recession, all of the above retailers would get hit, badly. However, I would avoid selling luxury retailers, due to their ability to endure slow downs.

Short: C, BSC, LAZ, BBX, ABK, RDN,COWN and RBS– With the eye of the storm in credit related names, selling the above stocks would be mandatory.

Short: FDX, CSX, UPS and CHRW– Transports blow chunks when there is nothing to transport. Plus, high energy prices kill them.

Short: NOC– Even though it is widely believed that military stocks will thrive under a democratic or republican administration, it is not a given. Should the dems decide to trim spending, bet on Navy contracts to get the ax. NOC derives most of their revenue via Naval contracts.

Short PCU, X, HAYN– With worldwide economies slowing, demand for basic resources will drop significantly.

Short: GLBC, NT, CIEN, ADCT and AKAM– Again, recession will force big tech companies to trim. The above companies will get trimmed, continuously.

Long inverse ETF- DUG– I do not believe oil and other commodities will keep going up, with the exception of gold/silver, when armageddon hits. Sell black gold short.

Long inverse ETF: FXP– China has run up the most; therefore it will fall the hardest.

Long MCK, MHS, TEVA: Cost containment for the healthcare industry is a winner, especially with a democratic white house.

Long TLT– With the Fed cutting rates, treasuries should continue to be a safe haven.

Long utlities- Falling interest rates will force old fuckers to find yield and safety, pushing them into the utility sector. My favorites are VE, EN, SO, FE and GXP.

The philosophy of my fucktarded bear position would be to undermine the U.S. dollar, while focusing in on a weakening consumer, cut backs in Gov’t spending, deterioration of earnings in the financial sector and a bet that a cold in the U.S. still gives cancer to our trading partners.

I would avoid selling anything that caters to the wealthy. And, I would not sell short the homies, for fear of a sharp squeeze.

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91 comments

  1. Woodshedder

    Finally.

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  2. JakeGint

    You’ve got quite a few of my short calls in there. AKAM, yes, hit it tomorrow!

    Although I’d go short GLD and SLV right now too. They will get caught in this liquidity trap, at least temporarily. They will be fine for the long term however, as the dollar turns to tin whistle toilet paper.

    And feel free to short bloated luxury items like COH and TIF, btw.

    Strong utility tip: NWN. Gassy. Liquid terminals.

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  3. BOOMER

    Does this mean you are a bear? Becoming one?

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  4. Juju bear

    Yah.

    This market is very oversold. There could be a reflex rally tomorrow, but it’s just another opportunity to sell down.

    We have not see the bottom yet, but we are getting closer.

    We test the August lows at least twice, perhaps even thrice, then and only then can we mount a strong rally.

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  5. The Fly

    Jake:

    Luxury retailers will thrive in bad times. I remember banking coin in Neiman Marcus, during the last recession (2001-2002). They tend to buck the trend, as rich folk continue to spend and luxury is the only place where growth exists.

    Boomer:

    The title is “If I Was a Bear.”

    Still hopelessly bullish, but prepared.

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  6. JakeGint

    You got the futures up, at least.

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  7. The Fly

    Also, with the amount of money I’m managing, there would need to be a broad range of ideas. Hence, the lengthly list of names.

    Although I agree, GLD and SLV will dip at first, it will outperform dollars, which would be the point.

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  8. JakeGint

    Neiman is a great example of tweener luxury– between real rich and wannabe rich. I’m selling a company that does a lot of business with them. They will get whacked like nobody’s business in a real recession (2000-02 was nothing), and they are already seeing it.

    COH is on the arm of every yenta in Cedarhurst. Where are they going to cut back first?

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  9. The Fly

    I agree with COH. Not really luxury.

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  10. The Fly

    Fuck you Jake.

    I just read your comment in the PG. Go read my reply, horse fucker.

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  11. Juju bear

    If the U.S. is heading to recession? Fly, the U.S. is already in a housing recession. Keep in mind that 9 of the last 13 recessions all had in common a housing recession. I don’t see how this time is going to be any different.

    Sectors

    Tech:sell
    Financials:sell
    Industrials:sell
    Telecom:sell
    Energy:sell
    Materials:sell
    Healthcare:sell
    Consumer:sell
    Consumer staples: buy
    Utilities:buy

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  12. The Fly

    Not all healthcare.

    Cost containment, like MCK and MHS will thrive. And, generic drug makers, like TEVA, will go higher.

    Learn up, son.

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  13. Juju bear

    Tru dat.

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  14. The Fly

    Holla!

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  15. Juju bear

    My initial sector analysis was based on the stupid ETFs, not retarded individual stocks, which as we know, are for asshats.

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  16. The Fly

    Sorry Juju.

    I failed to notice your greatly detailed “analysis.”

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  17. Juju bear

    But, keep in mind that bears go into hibernation in early to mid December.

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  18. The Fly

    Got back from the mall today, ZUMZ was dead.

    Sell it twice.

    Skateboard clothes are for the future homeless.

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  19. Juju bear

    No more detailed than your, “fuck you shorts, you’re dead”, investment strategy.

    I like to keep things simple.

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  20. The Fly

    Juju:

    Did you comment on my old blog or a newbie?

    If so, identify yourself immediately.

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  21. Juju bear

    Lurked on the tail end of your old blog.

    Like your new one.

    PG is a nice touch. No need for the weekend blogger anymore. They’re lining up to be shot.

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  22. The Fly

    Yes.

    Fly wins again, even when he appears to be losing.

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  23. Juju bear

    You’ve got a winning site all around. Pretty unique. Lots of ideas, well-placed humor, no analysis paralysis, and of course, enough mindless, offensive, irrelevant banter to keep ’em coming back for more.

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  24. The Fly

    I’ll sell it to you for 15 million euro’s.

    Five years from now, providing “The Fly” is still alive after multiple dynamite car explosions, you will have a steal.

    A steal mind you.

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  25. Juju bear

    Does that include the time machine?

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  26. The Fly

    No.

    But, I will include the Time Masheen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooDEgX9H2J8

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  27. BOOMER

    HWAY might be a decent health care cost containment play. Although I hate them and the pigs who run it.

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  28. Juju bear

    Fuck that. No time machine, no deal.

    Well, the wife has been patiently waiting for her midnight snack.

    Gotta go.

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  29. Juice

    quite the reversal in asia .. holy brown cow gangi !

    fm 4% in the hole to up almost 1%

    now that is what i call a meaningful reversal

    if we can’t rally off that, armageddon must be here

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  30. Danny

    That was a nice list. Skateboard clothes are for poor fuckers. It’s skateboarding. ZUMZ I still think has a future, but VLCM is epicly later’d

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  31. acropora

    hey FLY , youre becoming quite the fucktarded fade. way to turn bearish on the bottom tick! nice

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  32. acropora

    and im betting your short anything dollar related tops out this a.m. too

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  33. The Zombie

    Shorts are gay this morning. Heavy bounce coming, but will it last?

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  34. buylo

    so are we buying higher today at the open and selling lower later after the Fed? or is the Fed going to give us some hope so we can bounce higher only to sell higher Wed? will someone please say something intelligent for a change?

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  35. Dinosaur Trader

    This is a “turkey bounce” take what it gives you and walk away.

    -DT

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  36. gappingandyapping

    Looks like more gay shoes dropping on CNBC. Freddie Mac just dropped some shoes. Fuck I better fucking be long NKE with all of these fucking shoes. On another thought, what the fuck does a shoe dropping have to do with losses. Losses are losses or write downs, not fucking a pair of Reebok’s falling on the floor. Asshats.
    I knew CNBC would confirm my 200% short theory into the bell. No doubt they will drop some shoes.

    Good post broker.

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  37. kidstock

    Ahem,

    Not a bad call to buy ’em yesterday afternoon. By the lack of response to my Peanut Gallery post looks like you guys are all frozen like a deer in the headlights…

    The pussies that didn’t want to hold stock thru the holiday are home today getting abused by their wives. Perhaps they should start the day with a Bloody Mary.

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  38. BOOMER

    I didnt go to bed last night. I hope I dont trade like shit today.

    Oh…wait a minute…I dont trade. I only have BOOM and cash and an xtra large dunkin donuts coffee. Fugganay.

    Should be OK.

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  39. The Fly

    “and im betting your short anything dollar related tops out this a.m. too”

    Apparently, reading comprehension is not your strongest quality.

    The title of this post reads: “IF I was a Bear…”

    You stupid fuck. “If.”

    I swear, what’s with some of you fucking retarded monkey’s?

    Fuck off.

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  40. BOOMER

    and my iPod is talking:

    Lovely 2 C U – Goldfrapp
    Gonna Be Some Changes Made – Bruce Hornsby
    Shelter from the Storm – Bob Dylan
    Pump It Up – Elvis Costello
    Hour of Gold – Emmylou Harris
    Make it Come True – Daniel Tashian

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  41. BOOMER

    Broker – in defense of the “if” issue…

    Your post was so detailed and thorough, so much so that only a bear could write it, it beguiled the reader into believing that you really turned bearish.

    Sort of a meiosis…i think.

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  42. CubsRock

    Anyone see that Burt the Bear ad on the right side, lol wtf was that shit.

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  43. Juice

    eff me … I had GME on my ‘short’ list du jour … well, at least I have ERTS for some collateral damage

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  44. BOOMER

    I am running Firefox with the free extension called Adblocker Plus. I havent seen an advert in months. And my sites load faster.

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  45. Juice

    Broker: Let us know what you think of the FMCN quarter. I thought it was fine & the stock should get a 40+/- multiple on 2008, which makes it a strong buy anywhere near 50 in my book.

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  46. CubsRock

    I don’t think it’s too late, GME is going way down. How that pos company ever got up to $60 is beyond me. EB Games and Elect. Boutique were the same thing and both went out of business.

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  47. The Fly

    Juice:

    The FMCN qt was good. But, as you know, that doesn’t mean dick.

    I still have a minor position. I’d look to add around $47.

    Boomer:

    Being able to detach myself and think outside the box is what makes me a “space alien magician,” while you’re just an ordinary magician.

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  48. jeff

    morning douches

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  49. BOOMER

    I’ll take that as a compliment.

    However, you did designate me a Space Alien Magician some weeks ago.

    My understanding is that I am the only fucktard in the history of fucktardedness to receive that designation.

    Either way its a win.

    Thanks.

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  50. Dinosaur Trader

    Broker,

    My brother-in-laws place near Silverlake was robbed yesterday. If you know the goons who pulled the heist, lemme know. Perhaps you could be a middleman and get him some of his stuff back, for a “fee.”

    -DT

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  51. Goon

    DT-

    I robbed that POS .

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  52. mrkcbill

    Time to buy something today.

    –I heard Bilderberg is coming out with his Top 3 Stocks for 2008 it’s going to be Monday at 10am suit required.

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  53. Crawford

    My screen is green. Time to go find a safe home in a small cup for a little white, dimpled ball. Nero, fire rosen up my bow!

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  54. rockain'tdeadyet

    Crawford:

    You are smoking crack?

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  55. Richard A.

    GME = FUCKTARD.

    looks like it’s time to bail on GME.

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  56. Crawford

    Nah, no crack. Just taking a mental health day. Y’all keep this here baby bull bouncing n my absence.

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  57. Juju bear

    Bears covering before turkey leg day. That is all.

    We have not seen the bottom of this thing yet.

    I like the way the Fly hedges with the “if I was a bear” and then proceeds to list all of his short candidates.

    This quality bodes well for his 2008 Presidential campaign.

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  58. BOOMER

    This is like a cool drink of water.

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  59. Dinosaur Trader

    A good day to find new short entries. Let them run 200!

    -DT

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  60. Dinosaur Trader

    At the same time, it’s interesting that they’re shrugging off bad financial news… when they start consistently buying the bad news, that could be the signal of some type of trading bottom.

    -DT

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  61. Frosty

    FLY, turnaround tuesday…turkey for all and a side of bear….we eat big for a couple of days…who would have thunk.

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  62. Dinosaur Trader

    MVIS had a nice juicy print this morning.

    This rally is a little more responsible than last Tuesday’s run… too responsible.

    -DT

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  63. BOOMER

    iPod update:

    Here Comes the Sun – The Beatles
    Lovely Day – Bill Withers
    I Won’t Hold You Back Now – Toto
    Invincible – Pay Benatar
    Don’t Look Back – Boston
    Why Don’t You Believe – Griffin House

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  64. BOOMER

    BOOM is fucking on fire. Glory be!

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  65. JakeGint

    Pat Benatar?

    How freaking gay is that?

    That’s Jim Nabors-and-Liberace-at-the-turkish-baths-gay.

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  66. JakeGint

    I got news for you.

    BOOM is a short.

    Use this blessing from Squanto to lighten, loafers boy.

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  67. Mystiky

    Fly:

    You said NO to BIDZ at $17?

    It’s $20+ now

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  68. JakeGint

    How this for pissed?

    We’re getting ready to fly to New York this morning.

    And the baby FINALLY gets the stomach virus the whole family had the week before.

    So we’re done. Flights cancelled, rental cars cancelled, etc.

    My mother? Crying, of course. Pissed, which is worse. (If you know anything about Irish-German parents, you know the dichotomy here).

    Here it is three hours later, and he’s FINE. Ate his breakfast, running around with the Buzz Lightyear crapola, giving me books to read, the whole nine.

    So now I’m looking at flights again. Fuck.

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  69. Juice

    Jake: Give me your best shorts

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  70. JakeGint

    Shorting the cubes here.

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  71. JakeGint

    Again.

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  72. JakeGint

    Pat Benatar? Crap!

    [knock! knock! Knock!]

    Is this thing working??

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  73. Juice

    QQQQ or you going double barrel QID ?

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  74. JakeGint

    Note that the solar burritos don’t seem to be catching a bid here…. hmmmm.

    (STP short)

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  75. JakeGint

    Cube puts.

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  76. Dinosaur Trader

    Jake,

    That’s a rough story, sorry there. And I have to agree with the Pat Benatar sentiments… what the fuck, Boomer? You can’t play the Beatles and then Pat Benatar!

    Fly, I see VMI and LNN are running with this rally. I checked and couldn’t believe that LNN still has about an 18% short interest. VMI at 10%. Pretty high for stocks that have been kicking ass with their numbers the last few quarters.

    -DT

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  77. JakeGint

    Big Banks suck eggs.

    (JPM short)

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  78. JakeGint

    Dino — ya have to realize why we cancelled the flights. The other kids were doing Linda Blair imitations all weekend long.

    It may very well be that our youngest is a superhero, largely immune to human frailty.

    Developing…

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  79. Juju bear

    Use today to buy QID.

    Trust me. I don’t weigh very much, so I can be thrown quite far.

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  80. Woodshedder

    Jake, which series puts did you get?

    Me- Jan 52s.

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  81. ank

    Congrats on your site. Best of luck.
    ank

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  82. CubsRock

    Home Builders getting pounded, ouch! Bernie better help them soon.

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  83. Juju bear

    As you know, more fun today:

    Freddie Mac (FRE) reported Q3 EPS loss of ($3.29) vs consensus loss of ($1.84). The company reported a decrease in the fair value of net assets attributable to common shareholders of approximately $8.1 bln for Q3. Company says it is considering several actions toward capital management. First, the company has engaged Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH) as financial advisors to help it consider very near term capital raising alternatives. Second, the company is seriously considering reducing its fourth quarter common stock dividend by 50%. If these mentioned measures are not sufficient to meet the companies objectives, additional measures will be considered, including, but not limited to slowing purchases into its credit portfolio, limiting growth or reducing current portfolio, and issuance of preferred or common stock. Briefing.com. Currently $26.98 – $10.52.

    Today’s market rally will not last.

    Developing………..

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  84. Frosty

    FLY…CDS to present at the roth capital conf 11-21, looks to be putting a floor under it in a weak tape…they will provide an update for 2008…looks all clear for a turkey roast…a little pumpking pie to go with all that dark meat your posting…a well rounded diet, who needs that until after thanksgiving.

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  85. BOOMER

    Jake, BOOM is volitile, so you might get a scalp, but you are wrong mid term. When you take available shares @ 12.15M, minus institutional ownership @ ~11.5M (Nasdaq reporting more instit. here):

    http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=boom&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=Institutional&mkttype=&pathname=&page=holdings&selected=BOOM)

    Compare the available float to the shorts @ 1.83M

    http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/asp/short_interest_resp.asp?symbol=boom&SettlementDate=10%2F31%2F2007&View.x=47&View.y=9

    At the very least it is a squeeze. However, this is a very atypical move. This move must be news driven.

    If I were betting man, and I am, the company recently authorized, but not approved, enough shares for a 2:1 split. I would not be surprised if this is being announced soon.

    Or another acquisition. Or an upgrade.

    Seriously, short if you must, but stay on it. Cause something is up. I have traded this stock for years and have rarely seen a move like this without news following

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  86. JakeGint

    Boom: Short covering?

    Wood– I’ve got them ranged between 51 and 47 January’s.

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  87. JakeGint

    Boom– didn’t O’Neal have something to say about that much institutional ownership in a stock?

    No offense to BOOM, I’m sure it’s a great company.

    But this is like Hadrian, none shall be spared.

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  88. BOOMER

    PS – Neil Geraldo, Pat Benetar’s guitarist and husband, is one of the greatest rock/pop guitarists in history.

    And lastly, just to be clear, if you are shorting BOOM, get ready for a smack down with the 1.83 million other shares. Come on, did you see how well it held up despite the market noise lately?

    Something is up. I’m telling you. I won’t comment on the subject again.

    PS – this is also me on the Yahoo board. I called the acquisition:

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_D/threadview?m=tm&bn=2475&tid=88872&mid=88872&tof=17&frt=2

    I’m done. Do what you will.

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  89. BOOMER

    This is the last one on BOOM promise. Jake we talked about this almost a year ago. I agree that high levels of institutional ownership is a risk. But these dudes are not distributing. Look at the volume. Smaller and smaller and the weeks pass by.

    They are in it to flip it. That’s my thesis.

    I’ve got $1.7M at the last tick on my bet.

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  90. Juice

    fwiw – Alan Farley has BOOM has a year end pick long.

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