Sarkozy, Hollande Heading To Run Off Election
Comments »PARIS (AP) — Socialist Francois Hollande and conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy are heading for a runoff election in their race for France’s presidency, according to partial official results in a vote that could alter the European political and economic landscape.
French voters defied expectations and handed a surprisingly strong third-place showing to far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who has run on an anti-immigrant platform aimed largely at Muslims. That could boost her influence on the French political scene, hand her party seats in parliament and affect relations with minorities.
With 75 percent of the vote counted, Hollande had 27.9 percent of ballots cast and Sarkozy 26.7 percent, according to figures released by the Interior Ministry after final polls closed.
Le Pen was in third with 19.2 percent of the vote so far. In fourth place was leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon with 10.8 percent, followed by centrist Francois Bayrou with 9.2 percent and five other candidates with minimal support.
Turnout was also surprisingly high, projected by polling agencies at about 80 percent, despite concern that a campaign lacking a single overarching theme had failed to inspire voters.
Hollande, a 57-year-old who has worried investors with his pledges to boost government spending, pledged to cut France’s huge debts, boost growth and unite the French after Sarkozy’s divisive first term.
“Tonight I become the candidate of all the forces who want to turn one page and turn another,” Hollande, with a confidence and stately air he has often lacked during the campaign, told an exuberant crowd in his hometown of Tulle in southern France.
French Elections Begin With Strong Voter Turnout
Comments »PARIS (AP) — French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s career was on the line Sunday as voters turned out in solid numbers for the first round of France’s presidential election, a contest that could shake up Europe’s political landscape and approach to myriad economic troubles.
The first-round balloting will trim down a list of 10 candidates from across the political spectrum to two finalists for a May 6 runoff.
Polls for months have shown that conservative Sarkozy and Socialist Francois Hollande are likely to make the cut — and suggest Hollande would win the campaign finale. Many voters are turned off by conservative Sarkozy’s flashy style as they worry about jobs and the economy.
The Interior Ministry said early turnout figures showed an impressive 70.6 percent of France’s 44-million-plus voters cast ballots by 5 p.m. local time (1500 GMT) — less than the 73.8 percent in 2007 at the same time, but more than in the four previous races. Overall turnout in the 2007 first round was nearly 84 percent, the highest figure since the 1970s.
The campaign has been marked by frustration with the incumbent and the rise of the extremes. Voters may hand higher-than-expected support to far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen or Communist-backed firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon.
While they are not expected to win, a strong performance by one or all of them could influence the second-round vote. Centrist candidate Francois Bayrou may take votes from the mainstream, while the other five candidates are expected to receive low single-digit support.
Sarkozy and Hollande have pushed for a strong turnout on the idea that it would help the political mainstream and dilute the impact of more ideological voters.
“This is an election that will weigh on the future of Europe. That’s why many people are watching us,” said Hollande after voting in Tulle, a town in central France. “They’re wondering not so much what the winner’s name will be, but especially what policies will follow.”
“I am in a competition in which I must give new breath of life to my country and a new commitment to Europe,” he added.
Netherlands’ Politics Casts Cloud On Future EU Support
Comments »AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – The Netherlands, a core euro zone member, was drawn into Europe’s debt crisis at the weekend when the government failed to agree on budget cuts, making elections almost unavoidable and casting doubt on its support for future euro zone measures.
Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose centre-right coalition has been in power since October 2010, said on Saturday that crucial talks on budget cuts had collapsed after his ally Geert Wilders refused to do a deal, and that new elections were inevitable.
In the short term, the government must seek support for budget cuts from the opposition parties.
But uncertainty over the makeup of a new government, and waning voter support for bailouts and austerity measures, raised questions over Dutch backing for a fiscal responsibility pact seen as crucial to helping Europe cope with its debt crisis.
The catalyst for the crisis was Wilders, who refused to agree to 14-to-16 billion euros ($18.5-$21.1 billion) of budget cuts needed to bring a bloated budget deficit under control.
Now the euro-skeptic, anti-immigration politician has threatened to fight his campaign on a European battleground.
“The Freedom Party benches are unanimously against Brussels diktats and the attack on our elderly,” Wilders tweeted on Sunday, later telling Dutch news agency ANP that Europe would be in “sharp focus” during any coming election campaign.
Wilders most recently has lobbied to jettison the euro and return to the guilder, the old Dutch currency, and he is against immigration not only of Muslims but also of Poles and other central and eastern European members of the EU – views that strike a chord with his supporters.
His Freedom Party had a pact to support Rutte’s minority government in parliament, giving it the majority to pass legislation, but after seven weeks of budget talks, Wilders suddenly backed out just when a deal appeared close.
His supporters are against budget cuts, particularly cuts in welfare, health and unemployment benefits.
“This was a package that would damage our economy over coming years and increase unemployment. And all that to meet a demand made by Brussels, accepted by the Liberals, of reaching a 3 percent deficit in 2013,” he said on Saturday.
Wen Jiabao: Global Crisis Not Over, Reforms For Foreign Investments In China
Comments »HANOVER, Germany (Reuters) – The global financial crisis is not over and technical innovation and investment will be key to sustaining what remains a “tortuous” recovery, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sunday during a visit to Germany.
Wen also said China, the world’s biggest exporter and second largest economy, would press on with reforms aimed at creating better legal protection for foreign investors — a major concern for the growing number of German firms active in the country.
“Currently, the international financial crisis is not over and the global economic recovery is difficult and tortuous,” Wen said at the Hanover trade fair that was also attended by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
More investment in the real economy and technical innovation will be the most powerful drivers of global recovery, he said.
China’s annual economic growth slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 from 8.9 percent in the previous three months – the fifth consecutive quarter of slowdown.
“The reason why the global economy cannot walk out of the shadow of the (financial) crisis is also related to the lack of new growth points in the real economy,” Wen said, adding that China and Germany had fared better than most during the crisis due to their strong manufacturing bases.
“(The two countries) will surely have an ever more important role to play in innovation and development of worldwide industry,” he said.
Merkel, whose country has faced criticism over its insistence on reducing debts even during a time of poor growth in much of the developed world, said Germany wanted to strike a good balance between fiscal discipline and fostering growth.
“We must succeed with both because responsibility rests with Germany too for a sensible global economic development,” she said.
Merkel praised China’s huge stimulus package launched during the financial crisis, saying it contributed to Germany’s own export-led recovery.
Germany has also welcomed China’s pledge last week to contribute towards new funding for the International Monetary Fund that is meant to protect the global economy from the euro zone debt crisis.
The economies of China and Germany – the world’s second biggest exporter – are increasingly intertwined, with bilateral trade jumping to 130 billion euros in 2010 from 94 billion in 2009.
FRENCH SURPRISE! Le Pen is Mightier Than Le Left Expected
French presidential election: French polling agencies project up to 20% support for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen –
via @AP
More: Polling agencies project Hollande, Sarkozy to advance to French presidential runoff – @AP
Comments »American Professors Gather in Tehran for Occupy Wall Street Conference
An alarming news report from Iran’s Press TV, a propoganda arm of the Iranian government, showing American professors gathering in Tehran to discuss the Occupy Wall Street Movement:
Read the rest here.
Comments »Documentary: Iraq For Sale
This is your God
Disguised as
I have said before that it is one thing to make a mistake, but it is entirely another to ignore that mistake.
It does not matter if your left, right, religious, atheist, young or old; you must diffuse your lines of separation and stand up against the common threat both foreign and domestic.
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1T8xgHdMEM 450 300]Comments »
G-20 Statements Stokes Yields to Go Higher in Spain and Italy
“Italian and Spanish bonds fell as the Group of 20 nations said Europe’s debt crisis still poses a threat to global growth.
The declines pushed the yield on the Spanish 10-year bond above 6 percent for first time in four days. The G-20, whose finance chiefs are meeting in Washington, cited “the situation in Europe” first among drags on the world economy, according to a draft statement obtained by Bloomberg News. French 10-year bond yields reached the highest in almost three months before the first round of presidential elections on April 22.
“Underlying sentiment is still pretty nervous and people are still pretty worried about the fiscal prospects in Spain,” said Nick Stamenkovic, a strategist in Edinburgh at RIA Capital Markets Ltd., a broker for banks. “With French elections starting, investors remain on the defensive toward risk markets. That will continue near term.”
The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond increased five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 5.98 percent at 9:42 a.m. London time, after being as high as 6.04 percent. The 5.85 percent bond maturing in March 2022 fell 0.365, or 3.65 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,316) face amount, to 99.06. Italy’s 10-year yields climbed six basis points to 5.67 percent.
French 10-year yields were little changed at 3.10 percent, after reaching 3.17 percent, the most since Jan. 25. The extra yield that investors get for holding the securities instead of German bunds widened to as much as 149 basis points, the most since January. French securities slipped this week as Citigroup Inc. said it expects the nation’s credit rating to be cut over the next two to three years….”
Comments »Japan says IMF to meet $400 billion target to boost firepower
Comments »WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund is likely to achieve the touted $400 billion boost to its financial firepower as more countries signaled readiness to contribute funds, Japan’s finance minister said, in a sign the G20 has made progress in building up a global firewall to contain the euro zone debt crisis.
The IMF may even manage to collect more than the $400 billion target when including countries that cannot make a firm commitment now but are willing to contribute later, Jun Azumi told reporters after attending the Group of Seven and Group of 20 gatherings in Washington on Thursday.
Brazil Hints at Cutting Interest Rates
“Brazil signaled it may cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low as a still “fragile” global economy eases inflationary pressures in the world’s sixth-biggest economy.
The bank, in a statement accompanying its decision last night to lower the Selic rate by 75 basis points to 9 percent, said risks of missing its 4.5 percent inflation target are “limited” as the global outlook remains “disinflationary.” In the minutes to their meeting last month, the bank said borrowing costs would probably stabilize “slightly above” the record low 8.75 percent…”
Comments »Joblessness is Soaring in Europe Helping to Drive Yields Higher
“Surging unemployment rates from Spain to Italy and Greece are threatening efforts to quell the region’s debt crisis and keeping bond yields close to record premiums relative to benchmark German bunds.
Joblessness is soaring as European nations reduce spending, igniting strikes and protests fromAthens to Madrid. Unemployment in Spain surged to almost 24 percent, pushing the euro-region level to 10.8 percent in February, the highest in more than 14 years. Italy’s rate is at 9.3 percent, the most since 2001, hampering efforts to spur economic growth.
Deepening recessions in Italy and Spain contributed to a five-week slide in Italian and Spanish bonds as the shrinking tax base helped lead to both countries raising their deficit targets. The yield premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10- year debt over German bunds reached a four-and-a-half-month high this week.
“The higher the jobless rate, the more that has to be spent on benefits, creating the potential for a negative spiral,” saidChristian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London and a former ECB official.
Berenberg Bank predicts euro-region unemployment will peak at 11.5 percent in September, he said….”
Comments »The Anticipated Spanish Bond Auction Was Well Subscribed
The Logical Song
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5k3JVfxluFU 450 300] Comments »
What You Need to Know About Spain’s Bond Auction Tomorrow
“The Bank of Spain plans to auction between €1.5 and €2.5 million ($1.9 and $3.3 million) in bonds of 2.5 and 10 year securities tomorrow.
But financial media and investors are going nuts over this auction—as opposed to a sale of short-term bond auction on Tuesday—because of the maturity of debt Spain is selling.
As we pointed out earlier today, Spain has issued far more short-term debt than long-term debt, pandering to the cheap cash banks have because of the European Central Bank’s two three-year long-term refinancing operations. In fact, the Bank of Spain even issued a memorandum earlier this year (via @trumanfactor) giving it the ability to issue debt in new denominations that might coincide more favorably with investor demand.
Thus, Spain’s ability to sell 2.5-year securities that mature before the LTRO expires will be vital to how well Spain can weather the storm around its banks. Poor results on the 2.5-year auction would signal that investors are already ignoring the positive impact of the LTRO, and that Spain’s sovereign debt situation is about to get a whole lot worse.
Simone Foxman for Business Insider/Bloomberg Data
This year (green), Spain has been borrowing far more debt with shorter maturity than it normally has by this date.
NOT CONVINCED? READ: This Is The Number You Need To Be Watching In Spain >”
Comments »Taxpayers Gather Risk as Spanish and Italian Banks Gorge on Sovereign Bonds
“Spanish, Italian and Portuguese banks are loading up on bonds issued by their own governments, a move that shifts more of the risk of sovereign default to European taxpayers from private creditors.
Holdings of Spanish government debt by lenders based in the country jumped 26 percent in two months, to 220 billion euros ($289 billion) at the end of January, data from Spain’s treasuryshow. Italian banks increased ownership of their nation’s sovereign bonds by 31 percent to 267 billion euros in the three months ended in February, according to Bank of Italy data.
German and French banks, meanwhile, have cut holdings of those countries’ bonds, as well as Irish and Greek debt, by as much as 50 percent since 2010 in some cases. That leaves domestic firms on the hook for a restructuring such asGreece’s last month and their main financier, the European Central Bank, facing losses. Like Greece, governments would have to rescue their lenders with funds borrowed from the European Union.
“The more banks stop cross-border lending, the more the ECB steps in to do the financing,” said Guntram Wolff, deputy director of Bruegel, a Brussels-based research institute. “So the exposure of the core countries to the periphery is shifting from the private to the public sector.”
ECB Lending…”
Comments »Investors Continue to Worry Over Spanish Debt
“Spain’s surging bad loans are spurring doubt on whether the government can persuade investors that it can clean up the country’s banks without further damaging public finances.
Non-performing loans as a proportion of total lending jumped to 8.16 percent in February, the highest level since 1994, from less than 1 percent in 2007, according to Bank of Spain data published today. The ratio rose from 7.91 percent in January as 3.8 billion euros of loans soured in February, a 110 percent increase from the same month a year ago. That takes the total credit in the economy that the regulator lists as “doubtful” to 143.8 billion euros.
Defaults are rising and credit is shrinking at a record pace as 24 percent unemployment corrodes the quality of loans built up in the country’s credit boom and saps the appetite of banks to make new ones. Doubts about the extent of Spain’s non- performing loans problem is hurting bank stocks and driving up the government’s borrowing costs on investor concern that the expense of propping up ailing lenders may add to the debt burden.
“One of our concerns in Spain is to what extent contingent liabilities could pass to the central government,” said Andrew Bosomworth, Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Munich-based head of portfolio management. Non-performing loans “will have to rise when you take into account the unemployment rate and what’s happening with the economy,” he said….”
Comments »BoE Member Moves to Vote Against Further Rate Cuts
“Adam Posen ended his push for further Bank of England stimulus this month and David Milesdescribed his view on the need for more as “finely balanced” as officials said inflation may turn out faster than forecast.
The pound rose after minutes of the central bank’s April 4- 5 meeting showed that Posen joined the majority of the nine- member Monetary Policy Committee in seeking no change to the 325 billion-pound ($517 billion) asset-purchase target. U.K. jobless claims rose less than economists forecast and the official unemployment rate fell, a separate report showed.
While Bank of England officials noted that the U.K. may face a recession in the first half of this year, they said inflation may turn out faster than forecast. They endorsed a final month of bond purchases to aid growth while setting the stage for a possible pause in May, when they will consider new quarterly forecasts and debate whether to halt the so-called quantitative-easing program.
“The probability of QE in May — which already looked relatively low — has diminished significantly,” said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “It is too soon to rule out further QE in the second half of 2012, but the probability of this is diminishing in response to short-term inflation ‘stickiness’ and firmer underlying activity data.”
Comments »The Taliban Poisons 150 Afghan Schoolgirls for Getting an Education
(Reuters) – About 150 Afghan schoolgirls were poisoned on Tuesday after drinking contaminated water at a high school in the country’s north, officials said, blaming it on conservative radicals opposed to female education.
Since the 2001 toppling of the Taliban, which banned education for women and girls, females have returned to schools, especially in Kabul.
But periodic attacks still occur against girls, teachers and their school buildings, usually in the more conservative south and east of the country, from where the Taliban insurgency draws most support.
“We are 100 percent sure that the water they drunk inside their classes was poisoned. This is either the work of those who are against girls’ education or irresponsible armed individuals,” said Jan Mohammad Nabizada, a spokesman for education department in northern Takhar province.
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Comments »Here’s a Look at Strand East, Ikea’s 27-Acre London Suburb
Rendering via Architizer
In October Ikea announced its plans to build a 27-acre suburb near Olympic Park in London, and recently renderings of Strand East, as it’s called, have been released. The community, which is designed to hold 6,000 people, will open post-Olympics—2013 is the projected date—and contain stores, a variety of housing options (including freestanding houses and apartments), and office space. According to Architizer,Strand East will be both car- and Ikea-free: the Swedish furnishings chain will not, in fact, build a mothership here. Which implies a mission that’s more thoughtful than just plain brand expansion: “the village will test the repeatability of the company’s urban schemes in countries suffering from housing shortages.” Find another rendering below, as well as a diagram depicting the various components of the community.
Rendering via Architizer
