“U.K. manufacturing output gained less than economists forecast in September as machinery and chemical production declined, adding to evidence that the economy’s rebound is losing momentum.

Factory output rose 0.1 percent from August, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for an increase of 0.4 percent. Total industrial output plunged 1.7 percent as oil and gas output dropped by a record due to maintenance of sites.”

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“German factory orders fell the most in a year in September as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and slowing economic growth prompted companies to reduce investment.

Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, slumped 3.3 percent from August, when they dropped a revised 0.8 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That’s the second straight drop and the biggest since September 2011. Economists forecast a 0.4 percent decline, according to the median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, orders sank 4.7 percent when adjusted for work days.”

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The index fell to 54.2 from 55.1…

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“China’s services industries rebounded from the slowest expansion in at least 19 months, adding to manufacturing gains that indicate the world’s second-biggest economy is recovering from a seven-quarter slowdown.

The purchasing managers’ index rose to 55.5 in October from 53.7 the previous month, theNational Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in Beijing on Nov. 3. A separate services index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics in Beijing fell to 53.5 in October from 54.3.”

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“Australia’s services industry contracted in October for a ninth straight month, reinforcing the central bank’s decision last month to cut its benchmark interest rate, a private survey showed.

The performance of services index was 42.8 in October compared with 41.9 in September,Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and the Australian Industry Group said in Sydney today. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

The Reserve Bank of Australia last month ended a three- meeting pause in rate reductions as it seeks to revive demand in industries outside a resource boom that policy makers say may crest at a lower level than previously expected. The strength of mining investment has boosted the local currency, which in turn has hurt tourism, education and retail industries.”

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Let’s hope it can sustain. If the U.S. is truly hitting its slump then let’s hope we do not drag the world down into contraction.

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“The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) hit a new post-recession low this month. The index is a composite of corporate outlook by industry from Goldman’s company research. In the past, the index generally fell in line with other economic activity indices such as ISM Manufacturing – but not recently. While the ISM index is showing a slight expansion (though we don’t yet have the October ISM number), GSAI is pointing to the sharpest contraction across US industries since 2009. Sales, shipments, new orders – all came in weak. This indicates that the positive economic numbers in September (see discussion) may have been an aberration.”

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Just how bad is it in Greece? If you glance at the t.v. now and then you might think a bunch of yogurt eating folk are protesting over loosing a cushy ride from government. Take a closer look and see how they are really living.

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China’s PMI climbed back above 50 to 50.2. Copper, oil, and other commodities rose in celebration that a slowdown may be over in  China.

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“Banks in the U.S. reported stronger demand for auto loans and commercial and residential mortgages during the third quarter, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

The central bank described the share of banks reporting increased demand as “significant.” Demand for most other loan types was “about unchanged,” the Fed said today in Washington in its quarterly survey of senior loan officers.

The report provides further evidence that sales of cars and homes, bolstered by record-lowinterest rates from the central bank, are helping to fuel the U.S. economic recovery. The gains are helping to shield the world’s largest economy from a decline in exports and cooling business investment.”

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Missed this data point this morning. Seems like we ticked higher by 0.2, but missed consensus for an uptick of 1.7…

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“The worst of the declines in Asia- Pacific economies may be moderating, as Taiwan resumed growth last quarter, South Korean production climbed for the first time in four months and Singapore’s jobless rate fell.

Gross domestic product in Taiwan grew 1.02 percent from a year earlier, after a 0.18 percent decline the previous quarter, a report showed today. South Korea’s industrial output rose 0.8 percent last month from August on stronger car and electronics sales, while Singapore’s unemployment rate eased to 1.9 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 2011.”

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“The euro-area jobless rate climbed to a record in September as the fiscal crisis and tougher austerity measures threatened to deepen the economy’s slump.

Unemployment in the 17-nation region rose to 11.6 percent from 11.5 percent in August, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since the data series started in 1995. The data also showed that youth unemployment is at 23.3 percent, withSpain’s rate more than double that, at 54.2 percent. A separate report showed inflation cooled to 2.5 percent in October from 2.6 percent.”

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Asia got off to a good start this evening despite some crappy data out of South Korea and Japan.

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“Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM), the world’s largest corn processor, reported fiscal first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates because of improvements in its soybean-processing business.

Net income fell 60 percent to $182 million, or 28 cents a share, in the three months through September from $460 million, or 68 cents, a year earlier, the Decatur, Illinois-based company said today in a statement. Profit excluding a charge for a planned divestment of Mexican tortilla maker Gruma SAB and other one-time items was 50 cents a share, exceeding the 44-cent average of eight estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Operating profit at the unit that processes soybeans and other oilseeds almost tripled to $336 million. U.S. profit margins to crush soybeans more than doubled to $1.06 in September from 47 cents a month earlier and 42 cents a year earlier, as the country’s harvest began, according to an Oct. 12 report from BMO Capital Markets.”

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“German unemployment rose twice as much as economists forecast in October and the jobless rate increased for the first time in three years as the sovereign debt crisis damped economic growth and investment.

The number of people out of work climbed a seasonally adjusted 20,000 from September to 2.94 million, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said today. Economists forecast a gain of 10,000, the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. The adjusted jobless rate rose from a two-decade low of 6.8 percent in August to a revised 6.9 percent in September and held there in October, the agency said.”

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“Singapore’s economy will grow at below-potential levels for a second year in 2013 even as a tight labor market and rising costs of goods and services add to inflationary pressures, the central bank said.

The island’s pace of growth “slowed discernibly” in the past two quarters, and external demand is expected to remain “tepid and volatile” next year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in a twice-yearly review today. Gross domestic product may increase 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent this year, it said, reiterating a previous forecast. It didn’t give a prediction for 2013 growth.

“While the global economy should be relatively less volatile next year, its growth momentum is unlikely to pick up significantly as the deleveraging process in the advanced economies will be protracted,” the monetary authority said. “As such, Singapore could see its second consecutive year of below-potential growth in 2013.”

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“Spanish data this week will reveal the extent of damage wrought on the euro-area’s fourth-biggest economy as the government fights to cap a swelling deficit that is propelling the country toward requiring international aid.

Retail sales fell 11 percent in September from a year ago, the National Statistics Institute said today. Figures on public finances, consumer prices, and gross domestic product tomorrow may confirm a deteriorating economy and debt profile amid the toughest austerity in its democratic history. The Bank of Spain estimated last week that GDP fell for a fifth quarter.”

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“No big changes in this data.  Rail traffic continues to expand modestly.  This week’s data from AAR showed a continuing decline in carloads, but an increase in intermodal.  We track intermodal as it has proven to be a better leading indicator of economic growth.  The 3 month moving average in intermodal now sits at 3.5% – Well below the 2010 double digit readings, but not contracting.  The AAR has more on this week’s data:”

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“Here’s some rather disconcerting analysis from Moody’s on the state of corporate America. They highlight capital goods orders and correlation with business sales noting that such declines have only occurred in the mist of recession:”

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