GSP gets upgraded from 2% to 2.7%
Comments »Mining Investment Offsets Slowing Manufacturing in Australia
“Australian business investment slowed less than economists forecast last quarter as stronger mining spending outweighed a decline in manufacturing.
Capital spending gained 2.8 percent from the second quarter, when it rose 3.4 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. That compares with the median forecast for a 2 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 20 economists.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens held the key interest rate at 3.25 percent this month, having cut the benchmark five times since embarking on a series of reductions in November 2011 as the country’s resource boom cools. He said in minutes of the meeting that “further easing may be appropriate.” While today’s report showed a rise in mining investment from July to September, a projection for the 12 months ending June 30, 2013, was 8.1 percent lower.”
Comments »Fed’s Beige Book: U.S. Economy Trucked Along at a “Measured” Pace
Three Cheers: California is Making a Comeback
“After nearly five years of brutal economic decline, government retrenchment and a widespread loss of confidence in its future, California is showing the first signs of a rebound. There is evidence of job growth, economic stability, a resurgent housing market and rising spirits in a state that was among the worst hit by the recession.
California reported a 10.1 percent unemployment rate last month, down from 11.5 percent in October 2011 and the lowest since February 2009. In September, California had its biggest month-to-month drop in unemployment in the 36 years the state has collected statistics, from 10.6 percent to 10.2 percent, though the state still has the third-highest jobless rate in the nation.”
Comments »
GDP Grows 7.1% in the Philippines
A Bullish Case for Growth
“A pretty good counterargument to Jeremy Grantham’s prediction for slow growth via Laurence Siegel:
Comments »“Consumption cannot grow forever. Some consumption is of physical, nonrenewable resources, and the volume of cumulative nonrenewable resources consumed cannot exceed the volume that exists on Earth. Even at a zero growth rate, resources continue to be consumed, subject to physical limits. Thus, a worldwide slowing of growth at some point in human history is inevitable….”
Richmond Fed Index: Prior -7, Market Expects -8, Actual +9
Durable Goods Suggest the Economy is Improving vs. Deteriorating
This number was overlooked this morning. The data came as a surprise to everyone’s expectations and suggests the economy is not deteriorating.
Comments »Durable Goods: Prior 9.8%, Market Expects – 0.4%, Actual …Unch
Ex transportation: Prior 2%, Market expects -0.4%, Actual +1.5%
Comments »Mining Strikes in South Africa Curb GDP Growth Across the Board
Sout Africa’s GDP grew at its slowest pace in years to an annualized rate of 1.2%
Comments »Holiday Weekend Retail Spending Jumps 13% from Last Year
“U.S. shoppers went to stores earlier and bought online more than before this Thanksgiving weekend, giving retailers a strong start to the holiday shopping season, data showed on Sunday.
Likely beneficiaries included retailers that have done a better job of combining their physical stores with their online and mobile channels into a seamless shopping experience, analysts said, mentioning the likes of Wal-Mart Stores Inc and Macy’s Inc.
“The more you can make a shopper shop multiple channels, they are at least twice as likely to be a loyal shopper and spend tons of money,” Patty Edwards, chief investment officer at Trutina Financial, said.
Total spending for the weekend rose nearly 13 percent to $59.1 billion from $52.4 billion last year, according to a survey from the National Retail Federation. An estimated 139.4 million adults visited U.S. stores and websites from Thanksgiving through Sunday, up from 131 million last year, the survey, conducted for the industry trade group by BIGinsight, said.
In the latest sign of the growing importance of Internet-based retailing, comScore Inc said “Black Friday” online sales topped $1 billion for the first time, while IBM said online sales rose 16.9 percent year-over-year on Saturday.”
Comments »New Research Suggests Raising Rates Can Cure the Economy
“The solution to weak economic growth may be higher interest rates.
That seemingly paradoxical remedy can apply if the cause of the slump is a confidence shock that cheap borrowing costs are failing to reverse, two Columbia University economists said in a report published this week. In such a situation, ultra-easy monetary policy risks making fears of deflation a self- fulfilling prophecy as spenders sit tight.
If low interest rates can’t motivate jittery consumers, then the answer may be the opposite: an increase in borrowing costs. Such a shift “can boost inflationary expectations and therefore foster employment,” said Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martin Uribe in the study published Nov. 19 by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass.
“By its effect on real wages, future inflation stimulates employment, thereby lifting the economy out of the slump,” they said.
The academics said sagging confidence among households and companies has played a part in the recent economic slowdown. Evidence from the U.S. as well as Japan during the last two decades “seems to suggest that zero nominal interest rates are not doing much to push inflation higher.”
At the moment, the Federal Reserve pledges to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero through mid-2015.”
Comments »
Stimulus Spending Does Not Work
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgPggTlnoxM 450 300]
Comments »Leading Economic Indicators Rises at Slower Pace as Businesses Curb Investment
“The index of U.S. leading economic indicators rose at a slower pace in October as businesses held back on investment in anticipation of domestic fiscal policy changes set to take effect in January.
The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.2 percent after a revised 0.5 percent gain in September that was lower than initially reported, the New York-based group said Wednesday. Economists projected the October gauge would climb 0.1 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
The fiscal cliff of $607 billion in federal spending cuts and tax increases has been a hurdle for companies even as consumer sentiment has supported the household purchases that account for about 70 percent of the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that a budget deal could help make the coming year “a very good one” for the economy.
“We’re moving in the right direction — it’s just I think ‘subdued’ is still an accurate assessment of how the economy’s performing,” Kevin Cummins, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “We have to get past the fiscal cliff, and there are things like Europe still out there that potentially are headwinds to the economy.”
Fiscal Cliff”
Comments »Japanese Exports Hit a Three Year Low
The Nikkei celebrated this poor data with vigor as many anticipate the Yen will drop in the coming months. During the trading session the Nikkei faded the Euphoria and is desperately trying to claw its way back to silly full retard trade.
“Shipments totaled 53.5 trillion yen ($653 billion) for January through October, down 2.3 percent from the same period in 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from Finance Ministry figures released in Tokyo today. The trade deficit for 2012 so far is a record 5.3 trillion yen.”
Comments »Thailand Posts Slowing Growth
Thailand’s GDP grew 3% vs 4.4% last quarter. This growth rate was in line with estimates.
Comments »Brazil’s Interventionist Policies Fail to Boost Corporate Earnings
“A majority of Brazilian companies missed earnings estimates for a third straight quarter, signaling President Dilma Rousseff’s interventionist policies have failed to spark the economic rebound she is seeking.
Fifty-eight percent of the 62 companies on the Bovespa index that reported third-quarterearnings have trailed analysts’ forecasts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Sixty-two percent fell short of projections in the second quarter this year, and 60 percent missed estimates in the first.
Rousseff’s pressure to boost consumer credit at lower costs hurt profits at lenders includingItau Unibanco Holding SA (ITUB4), Latin America’s largest, as three of the four banks that have reported posted quarterly earnings that were below projections. Pulp producer Suzano Papel & Celulose SA missed estimates by the widest margin, leading disappointments among materials producers as a slowdown in China, Brazil’s biggest trading partner, led to a 12 percent drop in exports.”
Comments »Hong Kong’s GDP Falls More Than Expected, Government Lowers Growth Guidance
“Hong Kong’s economy expanded less than estimated in the third quarter as export gains stalled and retail sales rose at a slower pace. The government also cut its forecast for full year growth.
Gross domestic product rose 1.3 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter, the government said today. That compared with the 1.7 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 16 analysts and 1.2 percent in the three months through June. The economy grew 0.6 percent from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Hong Kong’s economy is set for its weakest annual expansion since the global financial crisis, adding to challenges for Hong Kong’s new Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying as he grapples with capital inflows that are stoking property prices and testing the local currency’s peg to the U.S. dollar. Financial SecretaryJohn Tsang said on Nov. 11 that the trade-reliant economy may enter recession if its major partners show a loss of growth momentum or signs of contraction.
“The biggest drag on Hong Kong’s economy is external trade,” said Lily Lo, a Hong Kong-based economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. “There is as yet no clear data or evidence pointing to a sharp rebound in key western export markets.” ”
Comments »Italian Economy Shrinks 0.2% as Recession Enters Second Year
“Italy’s economy shrank less than economists forecast in the quarter through September as the country’s fourth recession since 2001 entered its second year.
Gross domestic product declined 0.2 percent from the second quarter, when it decreased a revised 0.7 percent, the National Statistics Institute Istat said in a preliminary report today. The decline was less than the 0.5 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists. It was the fifth quarter of contraction. From a year earlier, output shrank 2.4 percent.
With export gains failing to offset the effect of weak domestic demand, the euro region’s third-biggest economy will contract 2.3 percent this year and won’t start recovering until the second half of 2013, Istat said Nov. 5. Industrial output will keep declining in the final three months of this year, employers lobby Confindustria forecast Oct. 30.
The Italian contraction contrasted with signs of recovery in Germany and France, the euro-region’s two biggest economies. German GDP climbed 0.2 percent in the third quarter, more than the 0.1 percent forecast, and France’s economy unexpectedly expanded by 0.2 percent, separate reports showed today.”
Comments »German Growth Slows Less Then Expected, France’s Growth Edges Higher
“German growth slowed less than forecast in the third quarter and the French economy unexpectedly expanded.
German gross domestic product climbed 0.2 percent from the second quarter, when it gained 0.3 percent, the Federal Statistics Office said in Wiesbaden today. Economists predicted a 0.1 percent increase, according to the median of 46 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. InFrance, GDP rose 0.2 percent in the quarter, beating economists’ median forecast of zero growth.
The better-than-expected reports from Europe’s two largest economies weren’t enough to prevent the euro area from slipping into recession. The 17-nation economy contracted 0.1 percent in the third quarter after shrinking 0.2 percent in the second, the European Union’s statistics office said today.
“This was probably the last reasonably solid quarterly figure from Germany for a while,” said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The steep fall in the leading indicators suggests that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter.”
The euro rose after Germany’s GDP release and traded at $1.2757 at 11:12 a.m. in Frankfurt, up 0.2 percent.”
Comments »
