“GDP rose 7.9 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter versus expectations of a 7.8 percent rise.
Industrial production rose 10.3 percent year-over-year versus expectations of a 10.2 percent rise.
Retail sales rose 15.2 percent versus expectations of a 15.1 percent rise.
Fixed asset investment growth fell 0.1 percentage points to 20.6 percent.
We will have all of the details here momentarily…”
Full article
“Whenever the BLS posts their monthly CPI there’s always the same response from critics that the index is flawed. That’s fine. I think a healthy dose of skepticism regarding government data is perfectly good. So let’s take a look at some independent gauges to see where prices are.
According to MIT’s Billion Prices Project inflation is running about 1.7% almost perfectly in-line with the BLS…”
Comments »“Russia’s government clashed with the central bank over its reluctance to stimulate the country’s sagging economy, with President Vladimir Putin urging an evaluation of both fiscal and monetary measures to boost growth.
Bank Rossii has “all the necessary grounds” to signal a future cut in borrowing costs, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said yesterday and Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said monetary stimulus was “essential.” Easing policy would be “counterproductive,” said Alexey Ulyukayev, the central bank’s first deputy chairman.
“We should analyze whether we have really exhausted these measures’ potential in this situation, or whether, given the European recession, it still makes sense to keep doing something to stimulate demand using budget or monetary-policy measures,” Putin said in Moscow yesterday.
Economic growth in the largest energy exporter has decelerated to the weakest pace since a recovery began in 2010 as weakening demand from China and Europe hurts exports. The slump is challenging Bank Rossii Chairman Sergey Ignatiev, whose final term expires in June.
The benchmark Micex Index (INDEXCF) traded 0.4 percent higher at 1,521.16 at 2:21 p.m. in Moscow. The ruble was little changed at 30.3005 per dollar against the dollar and slid 0.4 percent to 40.4595 against the euro. Non-deliverable forwards, which provide a guide to expectations of currency movements, showed the ruble at 30.7140 in three months….”
Comments »“China’s economy is set to exit a seven-quarter slowdown as the government rolls out infrastructure projects and limited inflation lets officials hold off from tightening monetary policy.
The National Bureau of Statistics will report tomorrow that gross domestic product expanded 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That’s up from a three-year low of 7.4 percent in the previous period.
The risk is that the rebound may fade in the second half as the boost from railways and road projects ebbs and the government grapples with rising inflation and the expansion of shadow banking. While the nation is set to reverse its slide in economic growth, the pace remains short of the 10 percent average of the past two decades as higher wages and weakness in global demand limit export gains.
“The current recovery is being driven mostly by monetary and fiscal policy easing,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. “Once the momentum of policy easing slows, growth may trend down again.”
Tomorrow’s report will also include the latest monthly data. Factory output probably rose 10.2 percent in December from a year earlier, up from 10.1 percent in November, while retail sales advanced 15.1 percent after a 14.9 percent gain the prior month, according to median analyst estimates.
“Economic activity across the United States expanded at either a moderate or modest pace in recent weeks with consumer spending picking up, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, suggesting little change in strength of the recovery.
The U.S. central bank painted a cautiously positive picture of an economy gathering steam across its 12 districts, with businesses and consumers made more wary by uncertainty over the outlook for fiscal policy and conditions in Europe.
“Hiring plans were more cautious for firms doing business in Europe or in the defense sector,” the Fed noted in its Beige Book report….”
Comments »“…
Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after having risen 1.0 percent in November when production rebounded in the industries that had been negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy in late October. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 1.0 percent.
Manufacturing output advanced 0.8 percent in December following a gain of 1.3 percent in November; production edged up at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The output at mines rose 0.6 percent in December, and the output of utilities fell 4.8 percent as unseasonably warm weather held down the demand for heating. At 98.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in December was 2.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.1 percentage point to 78.8 percent, a rate 1.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2011) average….”
Comments »“WASHINGTON (AP) — Lower gas costs offset more expensive food and higher rents to keep a measure of U.S. consumer prices flat last month.
The Labor Department said Wednesday that food prices increased 0.2 percent in December from November. Rents and airline fares also rose. Gasoline prices fell a seasonally adjusted 2.3 percent.
The flat reading of the December consumer price index ends a year when inflation slowed. Consumer prices rose only 1.7 percent in 2012, down from 3 percent in 2011. Food prices increased 1.8 percent, down from 4.7 percent in 2011. Energy prices rose slightly.
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices ticked up just 0.1 percent in December compared with November. And core prices rose only 1.9 percent in 2012. That’s below the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2 percent and it’s lower than 2011’s increase of 2.2 percent.
Mild inflation leaves consumers with more money to spend, which is good for the economy. Lower inflation also makes it easier for the Fed to continue with its efforts to accelerate the economy. If the Fed were worried that prices are rising too fast, it might have to raise interest rates.
With job gains and economic growth steady but modest, many businesses are reluctant to raise prices for fear of losing customers. That’s helped keep inflation tame. Workers also aren’t able to demand higher wages when growth is weak. That limits their ability to pay more.
Gas prices have fallen sharply in recent months after spiking this summer. Prices at the pump averaged $3.29 a gallon nationwide on Wednesday. That’s about the same as a month ago and well below summer prices that nearly touched $4 a gallon….”
Comments »“European car sales in December plunged the most in more than two years as recessions in the southern part of the region cut demand at Ford Motor Co. (F), General Motors Co. (GM) andRenault SA. (RNO)
Registrations fell 16 percent to 838,428 vehicles from 997,842 a year earlier, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, or ACEA, said today in a statement. Full-year sales declined 7.8 percent to 12.5 million cars, with the slump in the European Union the worst in 19 years.
Carmakers have announced 30,000 job cuts….”
Comments »“Japan’s machines orders jumped 3.9 percent in November.
This was much higher than the 0.3 percent increase expected by economists. This is according to Bloomberg…”
Comments »I’ve written two, maybe three times on this subject over the few years.
I firmly believe that despite all the talk of budget deficits we will continually find ways to expand the money supply to boost growth.
Modern economics warrants that after a large recession from a busted bubble, you must reintroduce the money lost in the bubble and in some cases add the equivalent of your existing outstanding debt obligations.
That would mean we have to print a boatload more of dead presidents…so to speak.
Infrastructure is a great way to spend with better returns than war and other wasteful spending like bogus agencies.
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“U.S. business inventories rose modestly in November as sales rose solidly, backing views restocking will not support economic growth in the fourth quarter.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday inventories increased 0.3 percent to a record $1.62 trillion after rising by the same margin in October.
(Click here to see how the U.S. stock market reacted to the business inventories report.)
The gain in November was in line with economists’ expectations. Automobile inventories rose 0.5 percent after increasing 0.8 percent in October….”
Comments »Empire Manufacturing: Prior , Market Expects , Actual -7.58
Retail Sales: Prior 0.3%, Maket Expects 0.2%, Actual 0.5% …..ex auto +0.3%
PPI: Prior -0.8, Market Expects 0.0, Actual 0.2%
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“…..There is a little bit of disappointment because of the GDP figures,” Robert Halver, head of capital markets research at Baader Bank AG in Frankfurt, said in a telephone interview. “The fourth quarter of 2012 should be the only one showing negative growth, with the following quarters showing better figures of economic activity. This is just a negative blink, not a sustainable trend.”
German gross domestic product may have dropped as much as 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous period, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today in a preliminary estimate. Growth slowed to 0.7 percent in 2012 from 3 percent in 2011, it said. Economists had forecast an expansion of 0.8 percent, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.”
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“U.K. inflation held at the highest rate since May last month as increases in gas and electricity bills helped to keep consumer-price growth above the Bank of England’s target.
Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the same as in November and October, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That matched the median estimate of 36 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Housing and utility costs added 0.26 percentage points to inflation. From the previous month, prices rose 0.5 percent….”
Comments »“Indian inflation slowed to a three- year low in December, boosting scope for a reduction in interest rates to revive the economy.
The wholesale-price index rose 7.18 percent from a year earlier, after climbing 7.24 percent in November, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement in New Delhi today. That’s the slowest since December 2009. The median of 34 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 7.37 percent gain.
India’s central bank signaled Dec. 18 that monetary policy should shift toward aiding growth, predicting the fastest inflation in major emerging nations will cool in an economy expanding at the weakest pace in a decade. Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, due to unveil the budget next month, has called for cheaper credit to back efforts to spur investment.
“The Reserve Bank of India can support growth only at the margin,” Suvodeep Rakshit, an economist at Kotak Securities Ltd. in Mumbai, said before the report. It will cut the repurchase rate at most by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent at the Jan. 29 review, since it faces “a serious dilemma” of trying to help the economy while containing prices, Rakshit said.
The yield on the 8.15 percent government bonds due June 2022 declined to 7.80 percent as of 4:44 p.m. in Mumbai, from 7.87 percent on Jan. 11. The BSE India Sensitive Index (SENSEX)advanced 1.2 percent, while the rupee strengthened 0.5 percent to 54.4906 per dollar.
“Spanish government securities declined, with the 10-year debt falling for the first time in three days, after a report showed euro-area industrial production unexpectedly shrank in November.
Italy’s bonds also dropped after a report showed factory output in the nation slid more than economists forecast. German bunds rose for the first time in three days, paring their worst start to a year since the introduction of the euro in 1999 as investors returned to the region’s safest assets. French two- year notes were little changed as the nation prepares to sell as much as 7.2 billion euros ($9.62 billion) of bills.
“There might be a little bit of a reversal” in Italian and Spanish bonds, said Elisabeth Afseth, a fixed-income analyst at Investec Bank Plc in London. “I doubt that there is any major change in trend. If we get continual setbacks and weak economic data then they might struggle.”
Spanish 10-year yields rose eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 4.97 percent at noon London time. The 5.85 percent bond due January 2022 fell 0.58, or 5.80 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 106.315. The yield touched 4.84 percent on Jan. 11, the lowest since March 1.
The yield on similar-maturity Italian bonds rose two basis points to 4.15 percent, after sliding to 4.09 percent on Jan. 11, the least since Nov. 10, 2010.
Industrial production in the 17-nation euro area dropped 0.3 percent from October, when it declined a revised 1 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.2 percent, according to the median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey….”
Comments »Cheers on your weekend!
Click on the link below for your lesson.
Pyramids of Waste AKA The Light Bulb Conspiracy from Andreas Wagner on Vimeo.
Planned Obsolescence is the deliberate shortening of product life spans to guarantee consumer demand.
As a magazine for advertisers succinctly puts it: The article that refuses to wear out is a tragedy of business – and a tragedy for the modern growth society which relies on an ever-accelerating cycle of production, consumption and throwing away.
The Light Bulb Conspiracy combines investigative research and rare archive footage to trace the untold story of Planned Obsolescence, from its beginnings in the 1920s with a secret cartel, set up expressly to limit the life span of light bulbs, to present-day stories involving cutting edge electronics (such as the iPod) and the growing spirit of resistance amongst ordinary consumers.
This film travels to France, Germany, Spain and the US to find witnesses of a business practice which has become the basis of the modern economy, and brings back disquieting pictures from Africa where discarded electronics are piling up in huge cemeteries for electronic waste.
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAb1Lm2iqZo 450 300] Comments »“The trend in rail traffic has moderated substantially in the last few months as the 12 week moving average in intermodal traffic hit its lowest reading since 2011. The current moving average of 1.34% is consistent with an extremely sluggish economy and one that has come well off the early boom period of the beginning of the recovery when rail traffic was consistently experiencing 10%+ year over year readings.
AAR has more details on this week’s data…”
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