“…..”This shows the depth of the recent employment recession – worse than any other post-war recession – and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis,” writes Bill McBride of Calculated Risk.”
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-scariest-jobs-chart-ever-2013-4#ixzz2PasNWKos
Comments »Prior 236k, Market Expects 192k, Actual 88k
Unemployment rate: 7.6%
No change in average hourly earnings…..
What does it day about our society when we trade stocks that go higher by putting debtors in prison? Certainly not all of these people are cheaters of not paying their debts…..fun times indeud.
“(MoneyWatch) Thousands of Americans are sent to jail not for committing a crime, but because they can’t afford to pay for traffic tickets, medical bills and court fees.
If that sounds like a debtors’ prison, a legal relic which was abolished in this country in the 1830s, that’s because it is. And courts and judges in states across the land are violating the Constitution by incarcerating people for being unable to pay such debts.
Ask Jack Dawley, 55, an unemployed man in Ohio who between 2007 and 2012 spent a total of 16 days in jail in a Huron County lock-up for failing to pay roughly $1,500 in legal fines he’d incurred in the 1990s. The fines stemmed from Dawley’s convictions for driving under the influence and other offenses. After his release from a Wisconsin correctional facility, Dawley, who admits he had struggled with drugs and alcohol, got clean. But if he put his substance problems behind him, Dawley’s couldn’t outrun his debts.
Struggling to find a job and dealing with the effects of a back injury, he fell behind on repayments to the municipal court in Norwalk, Ohio. He was arrested six years ago and sent to jail for not paying his original court fines. Although Dawley was put on a monthly payment plan, during his latest stint behind bars in 2012 the court ordered him to pay off his entire remaining debt.
” I called my brother, and they told him I have to pay off the whole fine in order for me to get out,” he said. “That was $900. So I sat my whole 10 days [in jail.]”
Such stories are by no means unusual. Rather, they reflect a justice system that in effect criminalizes poverty. “It’s a growing problem nationally, particularly because of the economic crisis,” said Inimai Chettiar, director of the justice program at New York University School of Law’s Brennan Center for Justice.
Roughly a third of U.S. states today jail people for not paying off their debts, from court-related fines and fees to credit card and car loans, according to the American Civil Liberties Union. Such practices contravene a 1983 United States Supreme Court ruling that they violate the Constitutions’s Equal Protection Clause….”
Comments »“President Barack Obama’s proposed budget will call for reductions in in the growth of Social Security and other benefit programs by including a proposal to lower cost-of-living adjustments to government social safety net spending, a senior administration official says.
The proposal attempts to strike a compromise with congressional Republicans on the Fiscal 2014 budget by combining the president’s demand for higher taxes with GOP insistence on reductions in entitlement programs.
The official, who spoke on a condition of anonymity to describe a budget that has yet to be released, said Obama would reduce the federal government deficit by $1.8 trillion over 10 years.
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xwh8kWuire8 450 300] Comments »“For a few days, the rest of the world looked on awaiting the riots and social unrest in Cyprus that we have become accustomed to from their fellow unter-sufferers Greece and Spain; but it never came. However, as Reuters reports, the public shock (and numbness) over the tough terms of the so-called bailout is now turning to anger as million of Euros remain locked inside the country’s banks. The people are “disappointed and angry,” that the politicians are out of touch, and, “the big guys, who had the information, managed to take their money abroad.” No one has answers for them, “I wrote to the central bank and they came back saying that it was not their competence, so whose competence is it?” as frustration boils over, “absolutely nothing adds up.” But perhaps the saddest truth is that the Cypriots are resigned to years of hardship, “I am going to find myself on the street with no future, only debts. But we will fight to the end. We have nothing left to lose.” It seems when a people has nothing to lose that anything is possible…
Via Reuters….”
Comments »“Ordinarily in the first post we would recap any of the key overnight events, but in this case there was just one event of note ahead of today’s non-farm payroll seasonally adjusted “noise”: the halting of the Japanese Government Bond complex due to excessive volatility. Now, this is not some zero-liquidity penny stock or an algo fat binary finger: at last check there is one quadrillion yen in Japanese debt, which makes it the second biggest sovereign bond market in the world. Yet one glimpse at what transpired in overnight trading and one can see just why the Japanese regulators decided it is time to close all bond trading. The reason: the JGB’s insane decision to literally reflate or bust, and with it the total loss of all signalling to various asset classes, because while the country is targeting 2% inflation, its bond curve is indicating the most epic deflation in history. The good news: the bond market reopened… eventually; the bad news: who knows if it will, the next time there is a 100% swing from low to high in the 10Y JGB bond yield in the span of hours. Which brings us to the point of this post, summarized best by Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid who overnight said it best: “we are now flying blind“… The central banks are now flying a plane that has lost all hydraulics and their only option is to add ever more power to the engines to pretend they are still in control.
From DB’s Jim Reid…”
Comments »“…Futures were having a nice morning till around 5:45AM, when almost $1.4B printed in DAX and ESTOXX futures – knocking the DAX off almost 2%, and taking US futures down 50bp. No headlines associated, but no recovery when Germany’s Factory Orders printed better (despite bearish chatter). We “Hear” that a heavy buyer of DAX futures between 7800 and 7850 on Monday got stopped out at 7800, and lighter single stock volumes could not support the weight. There was nothing in Credit or FX to correspond to the move…”
Comments »Prior 236k, Market Expects 192k, Unemployment rate is 7.7%, Market Expects 7.7%
“What a difference a week makes. Since Monday, forecasts for the March jobs report have dimmed, based on weak economic readings that emerged in the past few days.
The March report, which the Labor Departmentwill issue early Friday, has its work cut out for it, coming on the heels of February’s relatively strong performance.
“We’ve seen a very handsome rebound,” in February, said Eric Lascelles, chief economist for RBC Global Asset Management. “But we might be in for a bit of a pause this month….because recent indicators have soured.”
In the second month of 2013, employers added a net 236,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9%. February’s reading was laced with encouraging signals: temporary hiring climbed and other gains were broad-based, not concentrated in stalwart sectors such as health care and education. There also were some red flags — namely, January’s stark revision down to 119,000 jobs from 157,000. But all told, the snapshot was seen by many as a testament to consumer and business resilience amid headwinds including the budget standoff in Washington. That had many economists predicting 200,000 new jobs for the March report.
Expectations were further stirred by recent strong reports on housing and durable-goods orders. Consumer confidence — hammered by the end of the payroll-tax holiday and a February surge in gas prices — began to bounce back toward the end of March. Initial jobless claims continued their steady decline, with the four-week moving average falling mid-month to roughly 341,000.
But the past week ushered in a raft of less-than-inspiring numbers. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indexes both reflected growth slowing. On Wednesday, ADP’s estimate for 158,000 new jobs in March in the private sector caught many by surprise. And on Thursday, initial jobless claims climbed back to a four-week moving average around 354,000, in effect wiping out the improvement notched earlier in the month.
Those factors, as well as a low employment reading in the ISM’s nonmanufacturing report, have RBC’s Mr. Lascelles expecting a gain of 175,000 jobs tomorrow. The initial jobless claims likely were affected by the calendar — Spring Break and an early Easter — he said, so although the March jobs figure may not be a “magic 200,000-plus,” it should be “a solidly triple-digit hit.”
Credit Suisse analysts on Wednesday lowered their forecast for net jobs to 160,000 from 200,000, citing ADP and the employment sub-index in the ISM non-manufacturing report….”
Comments »“The “fear trade” is alive and well.
Investors rediscovered the appeal of haven Treasury bonds on Thursday, amid a flurry of worrying news ranging from North Korea to the domestic job market.
The mood change sent Treasury prices rallying to the highest point this year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to prices, fell to its lowest point this year and equal to its closing level at the end of 2012.
The moves left buyers of the 10-year Treasury note in the black for the year, a notable swing after the debt spent the entire first quarter in negative territory.
The rally in U.S. government debt began early Thursday after the Bank of Japan8301.JA -3.16% launched an aggressive monetary-easing policy. Buyers poured more heavily into the market after U.S. jobless claims jumped unexpectedly to the highest level in four months, a sign of softness in the labor market…..”
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“Hewlett-Packard Chairman Ray Lane, who is under fire from shareholders for his role in the botched, costly acquisition of British software firm Autonomy, has stepped down, the company said on Thursday.”
Comments »“The U.S. government paid almost $80 million in unemployment benefits during the worst of the economic downturn to households that made more than $1 million, including a record $29.9 million in 2010, tax records show.
Almost 3,200 households — about 20 percent of them from New York — that reported adjusted gross income of more than $1 million received jobless-insurance payments averaging $12,600 in 2010, the latest year for which figures are available, according to IRS data compiled by Bloomberg. Those payments outpaced the total incomes for about 25 million U.S. households.
The $80 million represents less than 0.01 percent of this year’s $845 billion projected deficit. Yet the unemployment aid to millionaire households underscores the lack of means-testing in some federal aid programs as the Labor Department reports new jobless figures today. The aid also is a reminder of the difficulty of reining in spending.
“So many people are taking advantage of government support that they probably feel like, why shouldn’t they take advantage of it, too?” said George Walper Jr., president of the Spectrem Group, a Chicago-based market-research and consulting firm that tracks the number of households worth more than $1 million.
Lawmakers have repeatedly tried to end or limit benefits to high-income households. A January report by the Congressional Research Service found at least five such efforts.
The House of Representatives passed legislation in December 2011 as part of a jobs bill that would have taxed unemployment benefits at 100 percent for single filers with adjusted gross incomes exceeding $1 million or married filers reporting $2 million in income. The provision wasn’t included in the bill signed by President Barack Obama.
“Crude in New York traded near a two- week low, headed for its biggest weekly drop since September as more talks on Iran’s nuclear program get underway.
West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed, poised for a 4.2 percent loss from the March 28 close, the most since the week ended Sept. 21. World powers and Iran started two-day talks in Kazakhstan and U.S. March payroll data will be released later today. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s largest crude consumer, gained more than forecast last week, to a 22- year high. Declines in London’s Brent crude may be “overdone,” according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The market has been a bit negative about payroll figures coming later today, and the surprise could be more on the upside,” said Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank AG in Oslo.
WTI for May delivery was at $93.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 14 cents, at 10:25 a.m. London time. It fell 1.3 percent to $93.26 yesterday, the lowest settlement since March 21.
Brent for May settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange was at $106.22 a barrel, down 12 cents. It declined 0.7 percent to $106.34 yesterday, the lowest close since Nov. 2. The futures have fallen 11 percent from this year’s intraday peak of $119.17 on Feb. 8.
The European benchmark grade was at a $13.10 premium to WTI, versus $13.08 yesterday. The spread shrank to $12.66 on April 3, the narrowest since July. The volume of WTI contracts traded was 40 percent below the 100-day average while Brent was 15 percent above.
Brent may recover from the recent sell-off as global inventories will remain low and economic growth picks up in the second half of the year, Goldman Sachs said in a report yesterday. The bank maintained its second-quarter price projection at $110 a barrel….”
Comments »“The Dollar Index (DXY) approached the highest level since August before a U.S. report forecast to show payrolls increased in March, underpinning optimism the world’s biggest economy is recovering.
The yen rose against most of its major counterparts amid speculation its slide yesterday when the Bank of Japan (8301) expanded monetary stimulus was too rapid. The euro weakened after retail sales in the 17-nation area dropped in February, adding to signs the region is struggling to recover from recession. South Korea’s won fell to a seven-month low against the dollar as the risk of conflict with North Korea spurred capital outflows.
“The dollar is becoming more of a pro-cyclical currency,” said Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. “If we get a positive surprise from U.S. payrolls we are likely to see the dollar regaining ground and it could be the catalyst for a move higher against the yen.”
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading partners, gained 0.1 percent to 82.769 at 7:05 a.m. in New York after rising to 83.494 yesterday, the highest level since Aug. 2.
The dollar rose 0.1 percent to $1.2921 per euro after rising to $1.2746 yesterday, the strongest level since Nov. 21. The yen gained 0.1 percent to 96.27 per dollar, after slumping 3.4 percent yesterday. Japan’s currency appreciated 0.2 percent to 124.40 per euro.
“Gold traders are split on whether bullion will plunge into its first bear market since 2008 as economies improve or rally as central banks buy more debt.
Twelve analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and the same number were bearish. A further three were neutral. Gold slumped to a 10-month low of $1,540.29 an ounce yesterday and investors sold $9.7 billion from exchange-traded products since their holdings reached a record Dec. 20. Hedge funds cut bets on higher prices by 70 percent since October.
Gold’s 12-year bull rally is probably ending as the U.S. leads a global economic recovery, according to banks from Credit Suisse Group AG to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Commerzbank AG says it’s too early to call an end to the rally and Standard Bank Plc forecasts prices will climb this year as central-bank stimulus and record-low interest rates spur demand for a protection of wealth. The Bank of Japan said yesterday it will double monthly bond buying to bolster the economy.
“The main driver behind gold’s weakness this year has been the focus on global growth and that’s meant rotation out of defensive assets like gold,” said Joni Teves, an analyst at UBS AG in London. “There’s this weak sentiment and it’s been feeding on itself. Central banks continue to pursue exceptionally loose monetary policies and create a still supportive environment for gold.”
The metal fell 7.2 percent to $1,554.66 in London this year. A close at $1,520.18 would be a 20 percent drop from the peak reached in September 2011, the common definition of a bear market. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities dropped 2.4 percent this year, and the MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities gained 4.7 percent. Treasuries are little changed, a Bank of America Corp. index shows…..”
Comments »“Oil refiners in Europe will shut 10 percent of their plants this decade as fuel demand falls to a 19-year low.
Of the region’s 104 facilities, 10 will shut permanently by 2020 from France to Italy to the Czech Republic, a Bloomberg survey of six European refinery executives showed. Oil consumption is headed for a fifth year of declines to the lowest level since 1994, the International Energy Agency estimates. Two-thirds of European refineries lost money in 2011, according to Essar Energy Plc (ESSR), owner of the U.K.’s second-largest plant.
“Purely from the falling European demand point of view, one bigger refinery or two smaller plants would have to shut in Europe every year,” David Wech, who helps advise oil companies and governments as managing director at researcher JBC Energy GmbH, said in a phone interview from Vienna. “And it’s not even assuming any negative impact from more competitive refining markets in other regions.”
A 50 percent jump in three years in U.S. diesel exports coupled with waning demand for imports of European fuels, as well as two recessions in five years in the euro region, have curbed profit from oil products at companies from Italy’s Eni SpA (ENI) to Royal Dutch Shell Plc. (RDSA) Refining margins dropped to $7 this month, from a peak of about $20 a barrel in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The losses are being compounded by the configuration of Europe’s refineries. Most of the plants, more than 50 percent of which were constructed in the wake of World War II, are geared toward gasoline production, though diesel now accounts for 75 percent of the region’s motor fuel needs.
“Banks are lobbying against international plans to tighten rules on securitization claiming they will tie up capital and starve the economy of credit.
Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), BNP Paribas SA (BNP) and Deutsche Bank AG are among lenders that have written to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in Switzerland to voice concern about reforms to be implemented from 2014. In a securitization, banks re-package assets, usually loans, and sell them in slices to outside investors.
Regulators are overhauling the rules after the widespread use of the technique in the U.S. mortgage market contributed to the financial crisis by spreading risk from lenders to the so- called shadow banking sector. The firms say the plans, which will force banks to hold more capital against any tranche they keep, would make transactions prohibitively expensive.
“The imposition of rules that serve to materially increase the capital requirements of securitizations could have the unintended consequence of creating disincentives for banks to be active in the securitization markets,” Rudolf Bless, Credit Suisse’s deputy chief financial officer, and Brian Chin, head of securitized products, wrote in a letter to the Basel group published this month. That could undermine “credit supply and overall liquidity of the global economy,” they wrote.
In recent months, banks have begun to look again at securitizations as a way of meeting the higher capital targets – – without cutting lending or raising fresh equity….”
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