Yearly Archives: 2013
Pay Close Attention to Markets as a Bull Bear Battle Rages On
“Check out this chart of the S&P 500.
Notice something about the past several days?
You might not, because it’s a little hard to read, but we’ve now had 13 straight days of alternating red and white days, meaning 13 straight days of alternating positive and negative closes.
And while Friday was a negative close, today is looking positive for US futures, so it could be 14.
Last week, when the streak was at 11, that was already a record seen not since the early 80s….”
Comments »Gapping Up and Down This Morning
Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning
In Play and On the Wires
Hussman Says The Economy and Earnings are Getting FUGLY
“Fund manager John Hussman of the Hussman Funds sounds the alarm again in his most recent weekly note.
Specifically, he suggests that the economy is much weaker than most people realize and may, in fact, be in a recession.
And then he observes that corporate earnings, which have driven the stock market to a record high (without adjusting for inflation) are based on record-high profit margins that will almost certainly drop.
First, here’s Hussman on the economy:
While there is no shortage of smug observers who believe that recession risk does not exist and never did, the fact is that the strongest leading indicators, as well as the most timely coincident data, have deteriorated and danced along the border between economic expansion and economic recession for more than two years. Meanwhile, repeated rounds of QE have produced little but short-lived bounces to defer a recession that historically would have followed such deterioration more quickly. The chart below offers a good picture of this process.
Notice the successively lower levels, as each round of quantitative easing has smaller and smaller effects on real economic activity (speculative activity in the financial markets aside)…..”
Comments »$GE to Buy $LUFK for $3.3 Billion
“(Reuters) – General Electric Co said it will buy oilfield services provider Lufkin Industries Inc for about $3.3 billion to expand its oil and gas business.
The offer values Lufkin at $88.50 per share, representing a premium of 38 percent to the stock’s Friday close. Lufkin shares rose to $87.97 in premarket trading.
Lufkin, which makes artificial lift technologies and industrial equipment, has operations in the United States, Canada, Latin America, the Middle East and Europe….”
Comments »The U.K.’s ‘Iron Lady’ Margaret Thatcher Dies at 87
“Margaret Thatcher, the former U.K. prime minister who helped end the Cold War and was known as the “Iron Lady” for her uncompromising style, died today. She was 87….”
Comments »Slovenia’s Bond Yields Rise on Default Expectations
“Slovenia’s creditworthiness is deteriorating at the fastest pace in the world after Cyprus as investors speculate a banking crisis will force it to follow the island nation and become the sixth euro country to need aid.
Credit-default swaps insuring Slovenian debt for five years soared as much as 66 percent to a six-month high of 414 basis points on March 28 from 250 on March 15, the last trading day before Cyprus announced plans for its rescue. It’s now up 34 percent at 336 basis points, compared with a 45 percent increase for Cyprus and 18 percent for Portugal in the period.
Slovenia’s two-week old government is struggling to prop up banks hit by recession and saddled with bad loans worth about a fifth of the country’s economic output. Cyprus, which accounts for 0.2 percent of the euro region’s economy, was forced to inflict unprecedented losses on uninsured depositors and senior bondholders as part of the 10 billion euro ($13 billion) rescue of its financial system.
“Since the Cyprus resolution, Slovenia has been in the spotlight,” said Bas van Geffen, an analyst at Rabobank International in Utrecht, Netherlands. “The country’s smallness is now clearly a drawback in the post-Cyprus era, which has fueled speculation that the country might be the next Cyprus.”
Credit-default swaps on Slovenia, which accounts for 0.4 percent of the euro economy, have surpassed those for Spain, Italy and Croatia. The latter was approved to be the 28th member of the European Union last week.
- Portugal Swaps…”
Danish Central Banker Warns of Popping Bubbles
“Policy makers steering the global economy have pumped the financial system with so much liquidity that any exit risks popping potential asset bubbles or stunting a recovery, Danish central bank Governor Lars Rohde said.
“The risk is we stay in this climate too long and that the carpet bombing of liquidity spurs inflation,” Rohde, 59, said in an April 5 interview from his office in Copenhagen. Though there are no current signs of consumer price inflation “there is inflation, perhaps a bubble, in some asset classes,” he said. “Equities (MXWO) are trading close to all-time highs. Segments of property markets across the globe, for example London, also display symptoms of this. How do we exit this without killing whatever nascent recovery there might be at that time?”
The warning from the head of Denmark’s central bank, which has kept its deposit rate below zero since July, comes as policy makers in Japan, the euro area and the U.S. deliver unprecedented monetary stimulus to drag the global economy out of the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Easy money has fueled equity prices, helping send the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to an all-time high on April 2. The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond hit its lowest on record last week.
“We’re in a landscape where we’ve never been before, with regard to extreme monetary accommodation over a very, very long period of time,” said Rohde, who took over as the head of Denmark’s central bank in February. “What does that end up doing to a society? It’s been a necessary policy, but I have my concerns about what the long-term risks are.”
Crisis Policies…”
Comments »Gold Futures Tick a Little Higher as Investors Weigh Data
“Gold futures gained in New York as investors weighed the outlook for continued economic stimulus in the U.S. after jobs data trailed estimates against continued outflows from exchange-traded products.
Gold jumped 1.9 percent on April 5 after U.S. payrolls in March were lower than economists’ expectations, bolstering the case for prolonged central-bank stimulus. Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP backed by bullion, fell 0.9 metric ton to 1,205.31 tons as of April 5, the lowest since June 2011.
“What is important for gold at this point is that the recent U.S. economic data has eased the pressure that was weighing heavily on the market last week,” Joni Teves, a London-based analyst at UBS AG, said in a report today. “This should feed into lingering concerns about theU.S. economy and the potential for deterioration in data to push out tapering of QE further into the future.”
Bullion for June delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,578.40 an ounce by 7:31 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.1 percent to $1,578.78 an ounce in London….”
Comments »German Industrial Production Climbs
“German industrial output rebounded in February, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is stabilizing after a contraction in the fourth quarter.
Production (GRIPIMOM) rose 0.5 percent from January, when it contracted 0.6 percent, theEconomy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent gain, according to the median of 41 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, production dropped 1.8 percent when adjusted for working days.
Germany’s economy probably returned to growth in the first quarter after it shrank 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2012. Still, business sentiment in Germany dropped in March amid renewed concerns about the sovereign debt crisis and its impact on the 17-nation euro economy, which is struggling to emerge from recession….”
Comments »$CEDC Files for Bankruptcy
“Vodka seller Central European Distribution Corp. (CEDC), headed by Russian billionaire Roustam Tariko, filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection amid heavy bond debt and with a pre-approved restructuring plan aimed at cutting about $665.2 million in liabilities.
The company, based in Warsaw, Poland, lists a U.S. address in Mount Laurel, New Jersey. It claimed $1.98 billion in assets and $1.73 billion in debt in court filings filed yesterday in U.S. bankruptcy court Wilmington, Delaware. Its stock trades as CEDC on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
CEDC said in February that it had proposed a debt-for- equity plan to reduce liabilities by more than $750 million. The company’s immediate financial crisis involved $257.9 million in 3 percent convertible notes that matured March 15.
The company said yesterday in a statement that holders of existing 2016 notes will receive $822 million, consisting of $172 million in cash, $450 million in new secured notes and $200 million in new convertible notes — an estimated recovery of about 83.7 percent….”
Comments »Bird Flu Concerns Take Down China Stocks
“China’s stocks fell after a two-day holiday amid concern a bird flu outbreak and property marketcurbs will hurt the nation’s economic recovery.
China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co., the nation’s biggest developers, slumped at least 2 percent after Beijing increased the minimum downpayment on purchases of second homes. Air China Ltd. (601111) and China Southern Airlines Co. paced declines for carriers on speculation flu deaths may deter people from traveling. Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co., whose drugs the government said may combat the virus, jumped 10 percent, leading gains for health-care stocks….”
Comments »The Yen Drops Another 1+% Hitting 2009 Levels, Nikkei Climbs Almost 3%
“The yen extended its drop against the dollar, weakening through 99 for the first time since May 8 2009.
It was 1.3 percent lower at 98.92 at 8:44 a.m. London time, after depreciating to 99.01. The Japanese currency dropped 1.4 percent to 128.50 per euro.”
Comments »Asia Trades Lower Sans Nikkei, Europe is Down, and U.S. Futures are in Upside Stealth Mode
Teflon Don to the Rescue
U.S. equities had every chance to sell off in a major way today. All week we received data suggesting that the recovery is in serious jeopardy.
Yet the markets managed to pare more than 65% of its losses despite a horrible NFP #
NOTHING CAN STICK IT TO THIS TEFLON DON!!!
DOW off 41
NASDAQ off 21
S&P off 6.8
WTI down $0.24
Brent down $1.94
Gold up $26
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWLIgjB9gGw 450 300]
Comments »
Documentary: Owned and Operated
This documentary puts together everything I have been saying since i was literally 11 years old.
Friends of mine say why complain, why bitch, and that what i say is too big to tackle too depressing to even think about. They are no longer my friends as i have no time for those who have no humanity.
When i bot my home a bumper sticker on the water heater said “If Nothing Changes, Then Nothing Changes”…while that is true there also comes a time where dislocation comes so slowly or too quick to notice until you are in such excruciating pain you wonder how you will ever get back to normal.
Thankfully, there is hope and wisdom that will get us back to normal. The question is will you participate or be an obstacle ?
Cheers on your weekend!
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njSV5LtVmR4 450 300] [youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjWD0JU92lw 450 300] [youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDRPtg0kmJU 450 300] Comments »Cause and Effect
Link for iPhone users: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAfO4fcP8UY
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpAqiGSp29c 450 300]“Thyroid abnormalities have shown up in American babies living along the West Coast, which researchers say was caused by radiation that leaked from Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011.
Babies born in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington between one week and 16 weeks after the nuclear meltdown began in March 2011 were found to be 28% more likely to suffer from congenital hypothyroidism (CH) than children born in those states during the same period one year earlier.
The results come from a new study (pdf) conducted by researchers at the Radiation and Public Health Project. The findings were published by the Open Journal of Pediatrics.
According to researchers, “Fukushima fallout appeared to affect all areas of the US, and was especially large in some, mostly in the western part of the nation.”
CH occurs as a result of radioactive iodine building up in thyroids. The condition can cause stunted growth, lowered intelligence, deafness, and neurological abnormalities….”
Comments »Just How Bad is the Employment Report? Even the U.S. Energy Sector Lost Jobs
“The oil and gas extraction industry lost 600 payrolls in March, according to the BLS report out this morning.
That ends a 27-straight month period without job losses for the sector…”
Full article
