Yearly Archives: 2013
Super Bowl Top Go ‘Gangman’ Style
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKwdDbdPego 450 300]
Comments »
The January Effect Favors the Bulls
“NEW YORK — Is the stock market’s “early warning system” sending an all-clear signal to investors?
Five trading days into 2013, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up 2.2%. And, if history is a reliable guide, that bodes well for investors.
The past 40 times since 1950 that U.S. stocks posted positive gains in the first five days of trading, full-year gains followed 34 times, or 85% of the time, with an average gain of nearly 14%, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the bible of stock market seasonality trends. (The last time this indicator gave a super-faulty reading was during the bear market in 2002, when stocks fell 23.4% despite rising 1.1% in the year’s first five days.)…”
Comments »The Road to Real Recovery is Open
“Things are going to be okay. In fact, better than okay.
This is the year that the U.S. economy could pick up steam on the way back to broad-based prosperity. Assuming governments here and around the world limit their follies (yes, I’m being hopeful), we could be at the beginning of a run rivaling the manufacturing boom of the ’50s and ’60s that built the middle class, or the tech boom of the ’90s that built the investor class.
What exactly will we be running on?
First, there is the leap in energy production due to improved technology. I’ve written in this space previously about the remarkable growth in natural-gasextraction that is pushing down prices dramatically.
Related: You can hedge, but you can’t hide
Oil production, too, is ramping up. According to the International Energy Agency, the U.S. is projected to become the world’s biggest oil producer by 2020 and could be entirely energy independent 15 years after that.
The growth in domestic oil and gas production could support more than 2.5 million higher-wage jobs over the next three years alone, according to a new IHS Global Insight study.
A return to making stuff….”
Comments »Critics Blast Mortgage-Servicing Settlement
“Critics are blasting regulators for terminating their review of bank mortgage servicing and foreclosure actions against homeowners, saying they failed to get to the bottom of questions about defective foreclosures.
Ten major banks will pay a total of $8.5 billion to homeowners, including $3.3 billion in direct payments and $5.2 billion in other assistance, as part of a settlement with the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Regulators were reviewing banks’ actions in an effort to find and fix defective foreclosure procedures, but decided that continuing the reviews was too costly and time consuming. Reaching a settlement with the banks would offer more relief to homeowners and offer it faster, the regulators said. …”
Comments »Fed’s Lacker Repeats Warning: Inflation May Rekindle
“The Federal Reserve’s latest stimulus plan will not do much to boost growth and raises the risk of inflation next year, Richmond Fed Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said on Tuesday, echoing remarks he made last week.
“It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve can push real growth rates materially higher than they otherwise would be, on a sustained basis,” he said in a speech to a business group.
“I see an increased risk, given the course the (Fed’s policy) committee has set, that inflation pressures emerge and are not thwarted in a timely way. I see material upside risks to inflation in 2014 and beyond, given the current trajectory for monetary policy,” he said….”
Comments »FT: Europe’s Telco Giants In Talks To Create Pan-European Network
“Europe’s largest mobile network operators are considering pooling their resources to create pan-European network infrastructure, the FT is reporting. Quoting several people familiar with the situation, the paper says discussions to potentially “unite Europe’s fragmented national markets” were prompted by the European Commission — reportedly keen for more radical options to simplify Europe’s mosaic of telecoms markets to fit its economic philosophy of pushing towards a single market.
The idea of a pan-European network emerged at a private meeting between EU competition chief Joaquín Almunia and the bosses of Europe’s biggest telecoms groups, including Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom, Telecom Italia and Telefonica, according to the FT. The paper says industry attendees left the meeting “intent on exploring the idea” of a pan-European network, adding that mobile network operators are frustrated by a “disjointed European market” that’s making it harder for them to compete.
For European telcos, the issue is the complexity of the regional telecoms landscape — with more than 27 telecoms regulators, and more than 100 carriers operating in the region. Doubtless envious eyes look over the pond to the U.S., with one regulator and four main operators, or China with three.
“The operators expressed a deep sense of frustration and agreed to bring constructive ideas of how a European market could work,” the FT quotes one person familiar with the meeting as saying. “Objections won’t come from Europe, they will be from the [EU’s 27 national] regulators.”
We’ve reached out to the office of Joaquín Almunia, and to Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom and Telecom Italia for comment — and will update this story with any response. A spokesman for Telefonica told TechCrunch the company does not comment on rumour and speculation. Update: TechCrunch understands that discussions between Europe’s telcos on network infrastructure pooling have taken place but are at a very preliminary stage….”
Comments »5 Things Facebook May Announce at Mystery Event
Comments »A Major Acquisition: Maybe, but, although I could have missed it, I didn’t see much pomp and circumstance, when Facebook swallowed Instagram for $1 billion. M&A would have to be huge. Like we’re buying Research in Motion (RIMM_) or something. Not going to happen. Zuckerberg didn’t get this far by being an idiot.
Second, there could be some seemingly low-level, but very meaningful M&A attached to mobile and mobile advertising. With or without an acquisition of, say, a Millennnial Media (MM_), expect Facebook to announce breakthroughs really soon — even if not at this event — on issues such as more precise targeting for advertisers, particularly via mobile platforms.
$LNKD Hits 200 Million Users Worldwide
“LinkedIn has announced it has reached 200 million user registrations worldwide — with new users being added at an average rate of two per second (or 172,800 per day). Not bad for a professional social network (but obviously still a far cry from Facebook’s one billion+ active users).
LinkedIn clocked up its first 100 million members back in March 2011, underlining how its growth rate has accelerated in recent times – with the network adding more than 13 million members since its last announcement on November 1, 2012. Back in January 2009 membership stood at 32 million.
In a blog announcing the new membership figure, Deep Nishar, LinkedIn’s senior VP of products and user experience, described it as an “important and exciting milestone”. The company has produced acelebratory infographic to mark the moment.
LinkedIn’s membership spans more than 200 countries and territories. The U.S. remains its biggest market, followed by India. Membership in its largest markets breaks down as follows:
- USA (74m)
- India (18m)
- UK (11m)
- Brazil (11m)
- Canada (7m) ….”
Rising Dollar Will Be a Headwind for Corporate Earnings
“Many large U.S. corporations derive 50%-65% of their revenues overseas. As the U.S. dollar rises, the foreign-exchange boost to overseas profits of the past decade will reverse.
One of the most glaring omissions in mainstream financial-media stock market commentary is the connection between the U.S. dollar’s relative value and corporate earnings. I have often commented on this bullish consequence of a weakening dollar.
50%-60%+ of global corporate earnings and profits are non-U.S., i.e. booked overseas in a currency other than the U.S. dollar (USD). As the dollar weakened, global corporate profits skyrocketed as earnings in euros, yen, etc. rose when stated in dollars.
In other words, overseas profits expand as if by magic when stated in dollars.
When the euro and the dollar were 1-to-1 back in the early 2000s, then 100 euros of profit converted to $100 when stated in dollars. When the euro rose to $1.60, then the same 100 euros of profit earned by the U.S. corporation in Europe converted to a stupendous $160 in profit when stated in dollars….”
Comments »
High Unemployment May Ensure Low Rates For Years
“The most important part of the Federal Reserve-watching game is now this: figuring out how long it will take for the unemployment rate to drop to 6.5 percent. That’s the benchmark that the Fed’s rate-setting Open Market Committee pegged in December as the one that will prompt it to begin raising the Fed funds rate, now set between 0 and a quarter of a percentage point.
Two new pieces of research — one from Morgan Stanley, one from CNBC — suggest it could be years, in fact, at least a half a decade, before the economy hits that mark. Both projections require a series of assumptions that are unlikely to be accurate: principally that there is no recession over an extended period and that job growth or economic growth remains steady. But they are still useful as a way to think about how long the Fed could keep rates on hold and, by extension, how long before the Fed stops buying assets through quantitative easing. The Fed has said that it would do so “if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially,” a phrase that has been taken to mean some unemployment rate below the current level of 7.8 percent but above the 6.5-percent trigger for raising rates.
Here are two different ways of projecting how long it could take until that 6.5-percent unemployment rate is reached….”
Comments »Obama to Nominate Lew as Treasury Secretary
“WASHINGTON—President Barack Obama has decided to nominate Jacob Lew, a central behind-the-scenes figure in the Clinton and Obama White Houses, to be the 76th U.S. Treasury Secretary, elevating the White House chief of staff into the administration’s most important economic post, a Democratic official familiar with the matter said.
Mr. Lew, if confirmed by the Senate, would break the mold of recent Treasury chiefs, as he is known more for being a loyal democratic lieutenant and budget wonk rather than a financial-market guru with broad contacts in the business world….”
Comments »Dish May Have Set Off a Bidding War for Clearwire as They Top Sprint’s Bid of $2.3B
“(Reuters) – Dish Network put in a bid for Clearwire Corp on Tuesday that trumped Sprint Nextel’s $2.2 billion offer, setting the stage for a takeover battle for the wireless service provider that owns crucial mobile spectrum.
Dish’s $2.28 billion offer appeared to affirm the satellite television provider’s ambitious plan to buy its way into the wireless services industry, on which it has already spent $3 billion acquiring much-needed capacity.
Dish’s straight-talking chairman Charlie Ergen says he wants to enter the mobile broadband market, and one way of doing it is to partner with another operator. But some analysts have speculated that Ergen is amassing spectrum — an increasingly valuable commodity as use of media-consuming mobile devices such as tablets intensifies — to flip it for a handsome profit.
The success of his latest move hinges on a number of conditions, not least of which is approval by wireless carrier Sprint, the No.3 U.S. carrier that owns just over 50 percent of Clearwire and is also keen to buy up the rest of the company….”
Comments »$FB Tops $30 Per Share Since 4 Ev’
A Washington Post Article on the Debt Ceiling is Being Touted for Crushing Volatility
“Quick heads up.
Some folks are attributing the market rally and the collapse of volatility to a Washington Post article by Greg Sargent arguing that the GOP isn’t united in their Debt Ceiling strategy as people might think.
Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus passes along this segment in a quick note titled Why the huge drop in Volatility?
Seems the huge drop in Volatility can be attributed to 2 things. Bad earnings expectations already built in – and the “Cliff” threat coming off. From WTAW…”
Comments »Free Operating System Ubuntu Looks to Kill Android and iPhone (Video)
“Ubuntu is a new open-sourced operating system for smartphones that seeks to be a free alternative to Android and iOS.
We got a personal demonstration of how the new Linux-based smartphone will work when it launches late this year….”
Comments »$HLF Pops 7% as Dan Loeb Buys Stake In the Company
“A huge hedge fund war is breaking out between two of the richest and most famous hedge fund managers in the world.
The battlefield? Herbalife, the distributor of its own nutritional products.
Hedge funder Bill Ackman is famously short Herbalife, likening it to an illegal pyramid scheme, which he hopes/expects the government will go after.
Today it’s been revealed that hedge funder Dan Loeb has now gone LONG Herbalife, taking a massive 8.2% stake.
The stock has spiked on the news.
Ackman first announced his short with a dizzying multi-hour presentaiton that he delivered near the end of December.
The premise of the short was that the stock was a pyramid scheme, and that the government could be induced to inveestigate the company, causing it to go to zero…”
Comments »Market Update
U.S. equities proceeded to wipe away yesterday’s losses and move higher beyond those losses.
We have a strong advance decline line with winners outpacing losers by 2:1
Transports are at 1 year highs while the Russell 2000 is hitting fresh new highs.
Equities were happy about $AA earnings and many cross industry companies are trading above market gains.
Home builders seem to be on fire today.
Gold is off by $4 and oil is flat on the session.
European markets added to earlier gains when Wall street opened to the upside.
Gapping Up and Down This Morning
Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning
AFL, BAC, CMA, DNKN, JCP, KEY, LYG, M, MET, MON, NFLX, PCG, RL, RYAAY, SON, SYY, TTM, URBN, DG, FDO,
Comments »
