“…..”Our global economy, reckless in its use of all resources and natural systems, shows many of the indicators of potential failure that brought down so many civilizations before ours,” writes Grantham in his new quarterly letter titled “The Race Of Our Lives.”
In 10 pages, he compiles some key points we’ve heard him discuss at length in his recent media tour. He spends most of his message on what makes him optimistic. We summarize is letter here.
Civilizations Fall
Even the greatest civilizations like Rome eventually fell. Citing research, Grantham told Charlie Rose that civilizations have an average lifespan of around 250.
He hammers on this topic at length in his letter.
“Probably the greatest agreement among scholars, though, is that the failing civilizations suffered from growing hubris and overconfidence: the belief that their capabilities after many earlier tests would always rise to the occasion and that growing signs of weakness could be ignored as pessimistic,” he writes.
Fortunately, we might not be doomed. Grantham sees two things that might save us.
Declining Fertility
Economist Thomas Malthus warned us that the growing population would eventually outpace the earth’s ability to feed it.
“Malthus, however, completely missed declining fertility, a potentially very long-term and hence much more critical factor to the survival of our species,” writes Grantham. “Neither he nor anyone else before 1960 even dreamed that we would voluntarily decide to have fewer children even as we became richer. In his day and until the early twentieth century, rich families routinely had eight or more children.”
In nearly every major economy, fertility rates have been falling. He includes five charts showing this, including one that stood out.
GMO
Here’s Grantham…”
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