This is what may be causing markets to rally hard….
Comments »Monthly Archives: December 2012
OBAMA: There Won’t Be A Debt Ceiling Negotiation This Time
“In “off-the-cuff” remarks at the Business Roundtable in Washington, D.C, today, President Barack Obama was firm in a stance that he would not be “playing that game” of negotiating the raising of the debt ceiling. He said a rise in the debt ceiling would have to be a part of a deal to avert the so-called “fiscal cliff.”
Obama quoted John Engler, the president of the Business Roundtable, who charged in November that it’s “not a good weapon for anything except destroying our own credit rating.”
“That is a bad strategy for America, it’s a bad strategy for your businesses and it is not a game I will play,” Obama said. “We are not going to play that game again next year. We’ve got to break that habit before it starts.”
Comments »Seriously, Can You Dispute These Claims ?
What will man not do to garner power and money ?
Being curious does not make one anything.
Asking questions is only part of our nature.
Being afraid is defense mechanism that can be broken.
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG5XApyQGHs 450 300] Comments »Why Silver is the Best Christmas Present
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ro44GBR7VQo 450 300]
Comments »Market Update
The markets have bounced around this morning to end up 110 DOW points on no clear reason. The bulls will take it and hope for the rally to stick into the closing bell.
Oil remains down a bit, the dollar and gold are running together similar to yesterday. For not flat to slightly down.
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gXuYFih6Y8 450 300] Comments »Should You Short the Treasury Bubble ? A How to Guide
“What is the next big short? The money that was made from 2007 to 2009 on the subprime mortgage short provided some of the most staggering profits that hedge funds ever realized. Heavy hitters like John Paulson reaped huge gains, while newcomers like Kyle Bass not only had tremendous gains, but also solidified a reputation that exists to this day. Many people could see the bubble. The problem was the carry.”
Comments »$WAG Same Store Sales Tank
Rail Traffic In China Points to a Turnaround
“Many economists and observers are skeptical of the validity of much of China’s economic data. Apparently, they are less skeptical of the electricity production and consumption and freight volume. These times series are often used to get a better handle of Chinese growth.
This Great Graphic comes from Also Sprach Analyst. The first chart (below) shows various modes of goods transportation and China’s GDP. The best fit is with freight traffic.
The second chart focuses on rail cargo volume. The volume of China’s rail freight in October was 3.2% lower on a year-over-year basis (vs -5.4% in September), but on a month-over-month basis increased by 5.8%.
The key take away is that the rail traffic lends credence to the recent series of data that suggest the world’s second largest economy is stabilized after slowing for the past seven quarters. Globally speaking, this is a small offset to the prospects of weaker US, Europe and Japanese growth profiles….”
Comments »$GS Cuts Q4 GDP to 1%
“As discussed earlier (see post), US manufacturing data for November shows shrinking inventories. This is true for both the ISM survey as well as the Markit PMI index (see figures below).
Goldman looks at the change in private inventories (also called “inventory investment”) as a good predictor of GDP growth. The Q3 GDP exhibited relatively strong inventory accumulation, which is being reversed this quarter (as the charts above show).
Comments »GS: – Inventory investment is often an important contributor to quarterly fluctuations in real GDP. Most recently, real GDP growth in Q3 saw a sizable boost from inventory accumulation. … Given the soft early indicators from business sentiment surveys to date, and our own econometric analysis, we expect that the boost to GDP growth from inventory investment seen last quarter will not persist into Q4. Inventories will probably be a moderate drag on GDP growth into year-end.
…
The recent decline in the series is consistent with a moderation in inventory investment in the current quarter, and hence a decline in the contribution from inventory investment to real GDP growth. A simple regression of quarterly inventory investment on our indicator [R-squared = 0.8] suggests that inventory accumulation could fall by $34 billion in Q4 ($135 billion at an annual rate) to $27 billion, enough to detract roughly a full percentage point from Q4 real GDP growth if taken at face value.”
After the Huge $GS Call, Is Gold Still a Safe Heaven for Wealth ?
“SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold hasn’t been trading like a safe haven lately, leaving investors to wonder whether it still is one.
“The volatility that the price of gold has seen lately gives the illusion that it is not a safe haven, but in reality investors still view it as a place to protect their wealth,” said David Beahm, vice president at precious-metals investment firm Blanchard & Co.
That’s tough to believe, however, given the steep drops the precious metal has suffered in recent sessions.”
Comments »This Morning’s Shakers and Movers
Tired of the Rat Race ? Go Run a B&B
Here is an interesting story about a lady who left the rat race to chase her dream….
Comments »Stifel Nicolaus’ Bannister: S&P 500 Likely to Hit 1,600 in Early 2013
“The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index should rise to 1,600 in the first two months of next year, up 14 percent from Tuesday’s close, says Barry Bannister, chief portfolio strategist at Stifel Nicolaus.
That assumes the fiscal cliff will be avoided, he tells CNBC.
“Right now the central banks have been in the lead around the world [with their massive easing], and we need the politicians to fall in line,” Bannister says. “It’s taking a little longer than I thought, though.” ”
Comments »“Deflation in an Age of Fiat Currency” by Russell Napier
“- To reach record lows [akin to those on offer in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982], US equities will have to fall by more than 60%.
– Central banks are straining to produce inflation, and developments in emerging markets (i.e. China) suggest a deflation shock is now likely.
– The capital Exodus from China is disrupting the creation of inflation.
– In the search for yield, cash is trash ‚ so now is the time to own cash. (This is an example of his dry contrarianism.)
– US Treasuries could repeat their 83% price decline of 1946-1981.
US stock markets aren’t cheap, not by a long chalk. Napier, like us, favors the 10-year cyclically adjusted price / earnings ratio, or CAPE, as the best metric to assess the affordability of the market. Unlike the traditional P/E ratio, CAPE smooths the near-term volatility by taking a 10-year average.”
Comments »ISM Non Manufacturing: Prior 54.2, Market Expects 53.7, Actual 54.7
Factory orders up 0.8% vs expectations of 0….
Comments »Germany Celebrates an Unexpected Uptick in PMI data
“There have been two big economic stories during the European downturn.
1) The European economy has been a horror show.
2) Somehow, Europe’s biggest “locomotive,” Germany, always seems to come through.
And just when it looked like Germany was about to crack… this happens.
German PMI numbers jump. There was a very nice number in today’s services report. Here’s a summary from Markit:”
Comments »Glaucus Research is Filled With Fucktards: $TEA Deal to Close- $SBUX
$SBUX reaffirmed their intent to buy $TEA, despite the efforts of internet bucket shoppe, GLAUCUS RESEARCH and their stupid pesticide reports, regarding Teavana’s tea.
$TEA is +7% in pre-market trade, just 10 cents below all cash offer.
Comments »Economists Expect a New Fed Bond Buying Program to Help Economy During Fiscal Cliffhanger Talks
“The Federal Reserve is set to announce a fresh round of Treasury bond purchases when it meets next week, avoiding monetary policy tightening to maintain support for the weak U.S. economy amid uncertainty over the looming year-end fiscal cliff.
Many economists think the U.S. central bank will announce monthly bond purchases of $45 billion after its policy gathering on December 11-12, signaling it will continue to pump money into the U.S. economy during 2013 in a bid to bring down unemployment.
“We expect status quo,” said Laurence Meyer of the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers. “We expect purchases will continue at the same monthly rate as over the last three months; that the composition will be the same, and that the maturities distribution will be the same.” ”
Comments »$C Announces 11k Pink Slips
2013 Buzz Word: DEFAULT
“The key word of 2013 will not be debt, growth or recession—it will be default. No one will want to use that word and will instead use terms like “forgiveness” and “realignment of future commitments.” Here are five predictions for how this story will play out.
Greek Debt Forgiveness
This is already being discussed with officials in Germany floating the idea that Greek debt held by EU governments and the ECB should be forgiven. This will mean that all the Greek debt held on the books of EU governments and the central bank will be worth just 25 cents in the euro, significantly reducing Greece’s debt burden as the coalition government battles to meet spending and revenue targets set by the so-called Troika. Once Greece gets this deal, others like Ireland, Portugal, Spain andItaly will begin to ask why they cannot get similar terms.
Unfunded Liabilities
Unfunded liabilities like public sector pensions will come under attack by policy makers across the world in 2013. Public sector pensions in Europe, generally quite generous, will have to be renegotiated if governments are serious about getting their budgets in order over the short, medium and in particular long-term. As we have seen at the city and state level in the United States, revenue collection at the local level has in many cases become a way of transferring taxes from workers to former police and fire officials. No government is likely to address this issue in 2013, but the debate will begin, and those who lose will take to the streets and strike to protect themselves against what is ultimately a default, no matter what you call it.
More Austerity”
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