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Monthly Archives: November 2012

The ECB Keeps Rate Unchanged. Spain Still Resists Financial Aid

“The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold today as the economic outlook worsens and Spain resists asking for a bailout that would open the door to ECB bond purchases.

Policy makers meeting in Frankfurt left the benchmark rate at its historic low of 0.75 percent, as predicted by 62 of 63 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. One forecast a cut to 0.5 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi will brief reporters on the decision at 2:30 p.m.

Draghi yesterday fueled speculation that the ECB might put rate reductions back on the agenda, saying the debt crisis is starting to hurt Germany — the pillar of economic strength in the euro area — and inflation risks are “very low.” Still, Draghi has acknowledged in the past that rate moves are less effective than they should be because distorted financial markets are interrupting the transmission of ECB policy.

“In normal times, with the economic outlook in Europe, a rate cut would probably be justified,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “But we’re not in normal times and a rate cut won’t achieve anything.”

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Must Read: America Voted For National Suicide

This brings me to my last point and to my most controversial one. In observing those election results I have become convinced that this nation, as we once knew it, is a house divided, to the extent that it cannot survive in its present form. There is absolutely nothing “UNITED” about these United States of America.

Among my close friends, I have been speaking to this topic for more than a decade now, having become convinced as far back as the 2000 election, that the nation was headed down the road to dissolution. Let me explain…

As a commodity futures trader, my task is to study TRENDS, particularly longer term trends and by so doing to hopefully profit thereby. There are trends in markets but there are also trends in a society. The trend in this society is an increasing divide between two diametrically opposed political ideologies.

The first of these is conservatism. Those who adhere to this view, and I include myself in this camp, believe in a system of limited government as envisioned by our Founding Fathers. The powers of the federal government are few and well defined with those not specifically delegated to it by the Constitution remaining within the providence of the individual states. “Unalienable” rights procede from God, and as such, are not subject to intrusion upon by the state. The state exists to protect and preserve these “rights”.

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Listen to the Lady

[youtube://http://www.youtubwatch?v=MbvYwg-Aqis 450 300]

Read between the lines..FU $MON

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The US Stock Market – Where the Big Dogs are Alpha-less

Haim Bodek has published a white paper on his website that you should all read, titled HFT Scalping Strategies. It outlines in a somewhat general way the concept of HFT Scalping Strategies, which serve as a cornerstone of the overwhelming majority of HFT strategies deployed in the market place, including but not limited to rebate arbitrage.

The scalping strategies are “alpha-less”, meaning that they are microstructure oriented – they use features such as the multitude of order types and the low-latency sold by the exchanges in order to gain queue position in the limit order books, as well as the “insurance” against  being adversely selected. According to Bodek:

Read the rest here.

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Worst One Day Reactions to Presidential Elections

Via Bespoke:

So much for yesterday’s rally.  With a decline of 2.2%, the DJIA is on pace for its fifth worse one day decline following a Presidential Election Day since 1900.  The worst one day decline came in 2008 when the S&P 500 dropped 5.0% following Barack Obama’s election.  Interestingly, while stocks have typically performed better under Democratic administrations, the five worst one day reactions to a Presidential Election all came following Democratic victories (gray shading).

Read the rest here.

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FLASH: Court Orders $AAPL to Mediate Settlement With $VHC by 12/20/12

Christmas time.

ORDER that all posttrial motions be filed by 11-21-2012; responses by 12-03-2012; replies by 12-07-2012; and surreplies by 12-11-2012. The Court sets allpostverdict motions for hearing on 12-20-2012 at 9:30 a.m.; Post-verdict Motions Hearing set for 12/20/2012 09:30 AM before Judge Leonard Davis. Parties shall attend mediation by 12-14-2012. Both parties shall have representatives with settlement authority in attendance. Signed by Judge Leonard Davis on 11/07/12. cc:attys 11-07-12(mll, ) (Entered: 11/07/2012)

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America is Dead: Detroit Elects 8 Time Convicted Felon to Congress

Among the new group of state lawmakers to emerge from Election Day on Tuesday is Brian Banks, who has been convicted eight times for felonies involving bad checks and credit card fraud.

Banks, a Democrat and lifelong Detroiter, won a seat in Lansing as a state representative for the 1st District, representing the east side of Detroit, Harper Woods, and the tony Grosse Pointes. He won 68 percent of the vote to Republican Dan Schulte’s 32 percent.

Banks, 35, was convicted eight times between 1998 and 2004 of writing bad checks and credit card fraud.

His slogan was “You can Bank on Banks.”

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Logic: Obama Win Did Not Tank the Markets Today

 

“Well, we hope you are happy with yourself, America: You reelected President Obama and destroyed the stock market.

That’s what a bunch of angry Wall Streeters, who unsuccessfully sunk millions into defeating Obama, would like you to believe, anyway. The truth is a bit more complicated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Wednesday down 312.95 points, or nearly 2.4 percent, its worst selloff of the year. It closed below 13,000 for the first time in three months. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index also tumbled 2.4 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell nearly 2.5 percent.

Throughout the election, Wall Street types took to CNBC to sound the dour warningsthat a second Obama term would immediately cause all of your money to catch on fire, because of how much Obama hates business or something. Wednesday’s bloodbath would seem to be their most apocalyptic warnings come to life.

There are just a few problems with their theory.

For one thing, Obama was the perpetual favorite throughout the election, with hisodds on the prediction market Intrade never dropping below 50 percent all year. He consistently led in the polls of key swing states like Ohio and was very seldom behind in measures of the national popular vote. Meanwhile, his challenger, Mitt Romney, spent much of the election shooting himself in the foot. Despite all of these signs of Obama’s impending re-election, stocks managed to rally throughout the year, with the Dow up 6 percent since the end of 2012, even with Wednesday’s loss.

What’s more, the Dow posted a huge, 1 percent gain, on election day, when Obama’s Intrade odds were at 70 percent or better and number-crunchers such as Nate Silver and Mark Blumenthal were calling Obama a 90-percent lock for re-election.”

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