Old Man Buffet’s Favorite Indicator Still Shows Modest Expansion in the Economy

” This week’s rail data conflicts with some recent reports from some major transport firms like Norfolk Southern and FedEx who both said end demand was softening.  AAR reported a decline in carloads at -2.9%, but an increase in intermodal at 3.9%.  We tend to favor intermodal as it has a better track record of forecasting expansion/contraction in the economy.  The updated 10 week moving average dropped slightly to 4.8%, but remains near its highest levels of the year.  The AAR has more details:”

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